Numbers Game: So You're Saying There's a Chance!

Well, that sucked. Everyone needs to read Peter's beautiful tome on how to handle ourselves in this incredibly unfortunate (and in our minds unjust) situation. But the chances of Texas going to the BCS National Championship game are not gone. Take a look at the BCS standings:

  BCS Harris Poll USA Today Computer Rankings
  TEAM BCS AVG PRVS RK PTS % RK PTS % COMP AVG A&H RB CM KM JS PW %
1 Alabama .9713 1 1 2815 .9965 1 1521 .9974 3 25 25 23 21 22 22 .920
2 Oklahoma .9351 3 4 2569 .9094 2 1397 .9161 1 22 24 24 25 25 25 .980
3 Texas .9223 2 3 2575 .9115 3 1396 .9154 2 23 22 25 23 24 24 .940
4 Florida .8851 4 2 2619 .9271 4 1385 .9082 6 20 23 22 20 20 19 .820
5 USC .8076 5 5 2378 .8418 5 1298 .8511 8 17 21 19 19 18 17 .730
6 Utah .7844 6 7 2111 .7473 7 1153 .7561 5 24 19 21 22 21 21 .850
7 Texas Tech .7805 7 8 2090 .7398 8 1116 .7318 4 21 20 20 24 23 23 .870
8 Penn State .7373 8 6 2177 .7706 6 1176 .7711 9 18 16 17 16 16 18 .670
9 Boise State .7034 9 9 1937 .6857 9 1044 .6846 7 19 18 18 18 19 20 .740
10 Ohio State .6340 10 10 1856 .6570 10 999 .6551 11 16 17 16 11 13 14 .590

Follow me after the jump for a little bit of thought on Texas' remaining opportunities.

Fact 1 that People are Forgetting: Our beef today was not with the BCS but with the Big 12 tiebreaker scheme.  We won't know if the BCS did it's job this year until after next weekend.  The BCS was never meant to break conference ties.  You can't blame the BCS for this, only the conference that intertwined its conference rankings with a preliminary BCS poll that was not meant to do anything of the sort.

If Fact 2 is Relevant, it will be the Best of Both Worlds: Missouri beating OU sends Texas to the National Championship game and OU to the Cotton Bowl.  USC is too far back to pass Texas even if it beats UCLA and wins its conference.  Even voters won't be able to muster enough chutzpah to put USC ahead considering the fact that if OU loses to Missouri, Texas will be viewed as a team that got screwed.

Fact 3 is Something We've All Been Slowly Realizing:  If Florida beats Alabama, it's possible that the Gators will not pass Texas in the BCS.  I posted about it last week, a few people have brought it up in the comments and 54b wrote a FanPost about it.  Florida is way behind in the computers.  A win over Alabama will certainly help, but who knows how much.  If Florida and OU split the #1 human vote (so that each is effectively ranked 1.5, while Texas is ranked a solid number 3 (or a little bit higher by some who still have Texas above OU on their ballots)), then it's possible that Texas will retain enough of a computer advantage to lead Florida in the BCS.  It's unlikely because I think Florida will make up enough ground in the computers to take the BCS lead, but it's not a given that Florida will be above Texas even if it beats Alabama.

Blind Opinion States its Case to be Fact 4: If Texas cannot make it to the National Championship game, then my greatest rooting interest in the Orange Bowl is for OU to get the shit beat out of it for the 5th straight BCS Bowl game.  I think Florida has a better chance to effect such a beatdown than Alabama and because of that, and combined with Fact 3 (and the fact that Nick Saban is quite possibly the devil incarnate), I'll be rooting for the Gators on Saturday.

Above all else though, Go Mizzou!  Beat the Hell Outta The Land (and Big12) Thieves!

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