Chances at MNC Better Than Big XII Crown

by realmccoy on Nov 8, 2008 11:33 PM CST

First the bad news. Our chances of the Big XII title virtually died with Okie State on that West Texas Prairie Saturday night. Now the good news, we actually have a better shot at the BCS title game in Miami.

First of all, we only have 2 chances to go to the Big XII title game (Slm and none). Scenario I is TT losing to both Baylor and Oklahoma. Don't hold your breath.

Scenario II is a 3 way tie with TT and Oklahoma. Unfortunately, that scenario requires Oklahoma to beat both TT and Okie Lite. If they accomplish that, they will almost certainly represent the Big XII South, because they lost their game earlier in the year on that glorious afternoon at the Cotton Bowl. And don't say they could lose to Okie lite - as that would doom us to a two tie with TT advancing.

So how in the hell do we go to the MNC without winning the Big XII title? The key is the Missouri Tigers. Let the 3 way tie send Oklahoma - or the 2 way tie send TT. If Mizzou can whack em - they now are a 2 loss team. Then the fun begins:

The strength of the Big XII schedule puts us ahead of USC - most definitely.
Penn St LMAO. No one wants a Big 10 Little11 team in Miami.
The Horns would then go to Miami to play the winner of the Florida/Alabama SEC championship.
An Auburn (unlikely but still a huge rivalry game) upset followed with a Bama SEC title sends the Horns vs. USC in a rematch.

I may be wrong - but that is the way I see it.

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You're assuming that Mizzou beats either 1-loss Tech or OU...

Mizzou has matchup problems across the board against both teams. Mizzou would get it’s behind handed to it by the best teams in the Big 12 South.

by HornsFaninCalifornia on Nov 8, 2008 11:49 PM CST reply reply 0 recs

even if Tech or OU win the Big 12 championship game

we could still possibly get to the national championship game if 1) Alabama loses to Auburn then beats Florida eliminating both from the title picture and 2) USC doesn’t jump us. We’d just be sitting there at #2 (most likely) if we win out with either Tech or OU sitting there at #1. Human voters will try and avoid a rematch but who would they put in instead of us? One-loss Penn State, undefeated Utah or Boise State?

That’s what I see anyway…

by clra2 on Nov 9, 2008 12:07 AM CST reply reply 0 recs

in NCAA dynasty mode

this has probably happened to me 3 times (all in various versions of the game), beating OU when they’re #1/2 in the Cotton Bowl, they drop to 5/6 and I rise to #1, and then OU works it’s way back to #2.

by clra2 on Nov 9, 2008 12:09 AM CST up reply reply 0 recs

I'm gonna stop dreaming and face the reality.

I don’t think we’ll be vying for a championship this year. In many ways, I think this is good because our players will work much much harder and improve drastically with knowledge a national championship is within grasp.

I thought OSU looked legit when they played us in Austin, but they got raped 52-20. As much as I cringe at the thought of OU or Tech representing Big 12, both teams are quite good.

And OU looks scary. I’m glad we played our A-game that day. Because we probably would’ve lost otherwise.

by boommotherfcker on Nov 9, 2008 3:19 AM CST reply reply 0 recs

Upset

It is upsetting that since 2004 (5 seasons), texas could have 3 teams that lost one game or less for the season and there would only be one Big 12 Champ to show for it. In the same time frame, OU has had three teams that lost three games or more and could also have 4 big 12 trophies.

by JohnsonUT on Nov 9, 2008 8:04 AM CST reply reply 0 recs

What do you mean?

OSU losing last night hurts our win value over them a bit but it will also when they lose to OU. OU will beat Tech and they will fall below us and them in the BCS ratings because of their SOS. OU and us need to win out. If we get involved in a 3 way tie with TTU and OU thean we win as long as Mizzou keeps winning. The one thing we have going for us is that the computers are giving us respect for the season and our body of work. PSU losing last night means we move up in both AP and Coaches poll which helps as well. I dont see OU losing to OSU not even in Stillwater. If tech beats OU, and I cant believe that I am saying this, they deserve to go to the MNC. Its that simple.

Semper Fidelis and Hook Em,

by Longhorn in SC on Nov 9, 2008 8:27 AM CST reply reply 0 recs

The problem is OU would likely pass us

OU is behind us in the BCS right now, but if they beat TTU and OSU that would likely change. Specially if they have a convincing win over TTU. They’d have a victory over #1/2 and a solid top 20 team. At the same time, our SOS would take a hit with ATM.

by Texasrocks on Nov 9, 2008 10:16 AM CST up reply reply 0 recs

Ouch, that's a really good point when you put it that way.

by TXinDC on Nov 9, 2008 10:26 AM CST up reply reply 0 recs

The humans

already have OU in front of Texas.

Oklahoma is 5 (6 for Texas) in Harris and 4 (7 for Texas) in USA Today poll. The computers are angry on OU but that’s because they have yet to play Tech and OSU, teams Texas has already faced. Baylor and A&M aren’t going to move OU and Texas much this week, but presuming OU victories from here on out, it’s guaranteed they will slowly close the gap with UT in the computer polls, if not pass them outright.

Difficult to see why victories over Kansas or A&M will move Texas up over OU (presuming they win out) with either the humans or computers, since OU has beaten both those teams. After your very impressive performance against murderer’s row, UT will drift down on SOS by playing a merely good Kansas and a pretty bad A&M.

You guys have a difficult rooting guide due. I don’t know what I would do if I were you.

Therefore: Root for Tech.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 9, 2008 10:42 AM CST up reply reply 0 recs

Only road for Texas

is if Tech loses the next two. Go Baylor!

by Wells on Nov 9, 2008 10:46 AM CST up reply reply 0 recs

Theory:

If we beat OU you guys will be better off rooting for us against Baylor. And then for us to lose Big-12 Champeenship.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 9, 2008 11:01 AM CST up reply reply 0 recs

If you beat OU

Then we will have to look at how the BCS numbers play out to determine who to root for in the Big 12 championship. If Texas can’t get in anyway, then I root for Tech to win the National Championship so Crabtree will go pro and Leach will jump ship to a higher paying job.

by Wells on Nov 9, 2008 12:35 PM CST up reply reply 0 recs

Texas will not get to the NC if they don't win the Big XII...

…That’s why Georgia didn’t get in last year, and why Michigan didn’t get in two years ago. If one-loss OU or undefeated Tech loses the Big XII title game, you will see USC or Penn State against the SEC champ in the NC game.

by Sweed4Heisman on Nov 9, 2008 11:08 AM CST reply reply 0 recs

Not entirely true

Assume SEC champ is in. What happens if Missouri wins the big 12 champ game? Who gets the second slot. USC may win out and not win its conference as well. Penn State is not getting in.

by JohnsonUT on Nov 9, 2008 11:42 AM CST up reply reply 0 recs

If Mizzou wins Big XII

I just don’t think the pollsters will put a team in that didn’t win its own division, let alone its own conference. I know Texas appears to be in good shape right now, but I could see them getting jumped after championship Saturday by USC or Penn State.

Yeah, things look grim for Penn State right now, but they could win their last two and just watch everyone crash and burn like Ohio State did last year. Ohio State did lose to a better team than Penn State did (Illionis who went on to finish 9-4), but the principle is the same.

USC would be seem the more likely candidate in this scenario, though. You’re right that Oregon State could win out and go to the Rose Bowl, but it’s hard for me to see them beating Cal and Oregon at home, and beating Arizona in Tuscon.

So, could Texas get to the NC game without winning the Big XII? It all depends on the pollsters. If they can live with a team playing in the national title that didn’t win its own division, then things are looking really good for the Horns. If they feel that you must be a conference champion to be a national champion, then I think it will be USC or Penn State.

by Sweed4Heisman on Nov 9, 2008 1:21 PM CST reply reply 0 recs