Texas Jumps USC to #5 in USA Today Poll
The good news is the Horns are now ahead of the Trojans. The bad news is both Florida and Oklahoma remain ahead of Texas. If both of those one-loss teams win out, it is hard to see Texas jumping either of them.
Texas probably needs Texas Tech to lose twice to reach the Big XII title game. If Tech loses to OU and beats Baylor and OU beats OSU, then OU will be ahead of Texas in the BCS and represent the South. If Tech loses to OU and beats Baylor but OU drops their final game to OSU in Stillwater, then Tech represents the South. And if Tech beats OU, then they will represent the South, regardless of the outcome of the Baylor game.
about 1 year ago
awiggo
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Amazing
you beat a team by 10 on a neutral field and not a month later that game seems to be lost on the minds of these voters. I just don’t get it….
by Not Now Chief on Nov 9, 2008 11:27 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I do not think we need Tech to lose twice.
Using sagarin’s ratings as an example UT and OU will have played 6 of the same teams and six different teams. The average of the six different teams for OU is 81, the average of UT’s is 65. Texas just needs to stay close enough in the Human polls that the Computers place Texas ahead.
by billb on Nov 9, 2008 11:38 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
yes but
OUs lead will likely grow over us in human polls if they win their last 2. i could be wrong. but a win over tech would likely boost them, and a win on the road at OK St will help as well. Will be tough for us to get much closer than we are right now, barring a shocking change of heart.
who knows with these things though.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 11:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
I hope you’re right.
However, the polls make up 2/3 of the BCS formula with the other 1/3 being the computers. If we remain behind OU in both polls at the end of the season, we would be giving up considerable points in the formula and would need to be significantly ahead of the Sooners in the computer polls to be ahead in the cumulative number.
We may be slightly ahead of OU in the final computers but if OU beats Tech and Ok State down the stretch, I don’t even think that is for sure.
--AW--
by awiggo on Nov 9, 2008 11:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
exactly.
its going to be really tight. but we got effed last week by the coaches poll. we just had too much ground to make up after getting screwed like that.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 11:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Style points count......
No matter what we want to hear, the voters saw OU put 66 on A&M on the road while Texas put up 45 on Baylor at home. Why I wanted Colt to stay in game and score that last TD with 11 minutes left. That TD and you hit at least one of the two field goals miswed and we score 55 and voters see that score.
As for USC, see what happens – they fell behind Texas even though they beat a ranked Cal team but only 17-3 – style points do count and it is crazy.
by texascfo on Nov 9, 2008 11:41 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Completely agree with you
Florida beat Vandy by more than we beat Baylor too.
by Horncasting on Nov 9, 2008 11:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OU lost votes
They were ahead of us by 63 last week, 14 this week. And they’ve lost their first place vote. Sure they’ll jump us if they beat Tech, but I’m not convinced they can beat OSU in Stillwater.
I can’t wait to hear Pete’s whining today. “How can we lose a spot in the polls when we beat a ranked team??”
Umm, Pete, did you watch the game last night? Not pretty.
I’m not getting worked up by any of these scenarios. We could have saved ourselves the mental gymnastics if we’d won in Lubbock. We didn’t. But at the start of the season, was there anyone even considering all the ways we could back into the MNC? No. So just enjoy these last two games of a very special – and over-achieving – team.
Besides, I’d be perfectly happy playing a one-loss Bama team in the Sugar Bowl Wtching Tech getting demolished by Florida in the MNC would just be the icing on the cak.e
Still a Blaine Irby fan
by patienthornsfan on Nov 9, 2008 11:43 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
bcs game
its not exactly a foregone conclusion that we play in a BCS game yet either. there are still scenarios where we could end up in the cotton bowl.
OU beats tech and wins the CCG, goes to the national title game. Its possible that tech doesnt drop behind us and could get the at 2nd B12 at large game.
Its very possible that there could end up 3 B12 teams in the top 4 of the BCS.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 11:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
BCS isn't required to take the 2nd team in the conference
And any BCS bowl would be insane to pick Tech over Texas, the way our fans travel. And spend.
Still a Blaine Irby fan
by patienthornsfan on Nov 9, 2008 11:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
i wasnt commenting on the likelihood, just that the possibility exists.
theres a very real possibility that a top 4 BCS team will be playing in the Cotton Bowl. Whether that is us or Tech remains to be seen.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 11:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not quite correct
In general, the BCS isn’t required to take a second team, but with the poor performances in the pac-10, big east, acc, and big 10, the SEC and Big 12 could be two of the only three BCS conferences that even have a second team eligible. Ohio State could get into the BCS simply because there is no other BCS conference team that is allowed to be taken.
The rules are:
A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, and
B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings.
by JohnsonUT on Nov 9, 2008 12:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He did not mean a second team
he meant the #2 team in the conference.
by Wells on Nov 9, 2008 12:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Remember
That a team that finishes in the top four of the final BCS standings becomes an automatic BCS team as long as there aren’t two other teams ahead of said team from the same conference or the team that finishes third would also qualify under the same rule.
If it goes: Florida, OU, USC, Texas, then the Horns would be Fiesta Bowl bound.
If it goes: Florida, OU, Tech, Texas, then the Red Raiders would be Fiesta Bowl bound.
--AW--
by awiggo on Nov 9, 2008 12:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
By that same logic
If Tech wins out then we would have….
Tech, Florida, Texas, USC (probably) and the Horns would still be Fiesta Bowl bound.
Right?
Still a Blaine Irby fan
by patienthornsfan on Nov 9, 2008 12:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah,
that is probably right. Unless USC and Utah or Penn State somehow jump ahead of Texas.
Texas just needs to finish in the top four with only one Big XII team ahead of them, then they would automatically go to the BCS. They wouldn’t automatically go to the Fiesta because the Fiesta gets to make the pick but under almost any scenario the Fiesta would want a Big XII team.
--AW--
by awiggo on Nov 9, 2008 12:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sugar Bowl Unlikely
If a Big XII team plays for the national title, then the Fiesta Bowl would get to pick a replacement team. They would almost certainly pick a Big XII team. If OU plays for the national title, then the Fiesta could pick Texas or Tech. The Fiesta could pass and take Utah or Boise State but that is not likely.
There is a rule that says no more than two teams from the same conference can play in BCS bowls.
Texas could go to the Sugar if a Big XII team doesn’t play for the title. Say it’s USC vs. Florida. Then, the Sugar could pick Alabama as their replacement pick, then the Rose could take Oregon State as theirs, and the Fiesta would get the Big XII title game winner. The Fiesta would also get the next pick and to avoid an all Big XII game, could take Utah. The Sugar would be the next pick and could take Texas as long as Boise State has not also qualifiied automatically. If they win out, they will be an automatic selection and there would not be room for a third at-large team.
So, more than a few things would have to happen for Texas to land in the Sugar based on the mulitiple automatic qualifiers and the hierarchy of the BCS bowl selections. More likely a Big XII team plays for the title and a second team plays in the Fiesta.
--AW--
by awiggo on Nov 9, 2008 11:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sugar
If Florida ends up BCS #1, sugar gets the first pick and could choose and “exciting” Big 12 team. I do not know if Sugar loves the SEC like rose bowl loves pac10/big 10.
by JohnsonUT on Nov 9, 2008 12:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't we send an army of fans last time?
When James Brown took the Horns to play Va. Tech in the Sugar Bowl, I seem to remember we painted the French Quarter burnt orange…..
Still a Blaine Irby fan
by patienthornsfan on Nov 9, 2008 12:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sort Of
If Florida ends up #1, then the Sugar would get the first replacement pick. However, there is a provision that is the Fiesta also lost a team (OU) and would be picking second, the Sugar would not be allowed to pick a Big XII team as the first selection unless the Fiesta agreed. That is not likely.
--AW--
by awiggo on Nov 9, 2008 12:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why do we get in the shitty fiesta bowl?
I think that one’s the worst.
by SneezyBeltran on Nov 9, 2008 1:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Tie In
The Big XII is tied to the Fiesta Bowl.
Rose: Big 10 vs. Pac 10
Sugar: SEC vs. _______
Fiesta: Big XII vs. _______
Orange: ACC vs. _______
National Championship: BCS #1 vs. BCS #2
The Big East is not tied to a specific BCS bowl but their conference champion earns an automatic bid. The two bowls which lose teams to the national champioship get to pick replacement teams before the other bowls make their selections. After the automatic bids and the replacement picks, then the bowls choose in a certain order, which changes yearly. This year it will be Fiesta, Sugar, and then Orange.
--AW--
by awiggo on Nov 9, 2008 1:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
right
but, the fiesta would not necessarily be bound to pick another Big 12 team. They could pick whoever. The prevailing theory, however, is that they would LIKE to preserve the Big 12 tie-in, given that the big 12 teams available are ranked highly enough with desirable fan bases, which is likely to happen this year.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 1:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Should the Fiesta lose a Big XII team to the national title game, they are not required to pick a Big XII team as a replacement. As you noted, they probably would, given another Big XII team is highly ranked, which should be the case this year.
--AW--
by awiggo on Nov 9, 2008 1:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I just want a BCS game.
Would be crazy if OU or Tech lost to Missouri in Kansas City. You never know as that will be an almost home game for the Tigers. Could Texas be invited to the NCG if that happens and did not win own conference?
by texascfo on Nov 9, 2008 11:44 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
What's the scenario
Where Tech wins out against OU and Baylor, but drops an egg in the Big 12 Championship game against Mizzou?
by notsofst on Nov 9, 2008 12:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Depends
It could still come down to us or Tech getting into the NC game (or even a BCS game). My gut tells me we would get in due to the tougher schedule.
by Horncasting on Nov 9, 2008 12:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not just your gut
Texas would be ahead of Tech in the final BCS standings (easily in top 4) so they would go, not Tech.
Still a Blaine Irby fan
by patienthornsfan on Nov 9, 2008 12:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You are assuming the human voters overlook the head to head
vs. Tech.
by Horncasting on Nov 9, 2008 12:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They're overlooking the head to head vs OU aren't they???
Still a Blaine Irby fan
by patienthornsfan on Nov 9, 2008 12:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yes
you would have to assume the same would happen. i dont know why or how, but if tech were to drop but not below us, it would be ridiculous. how could they justify OU ahead of us at that point?
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 12:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We're still OK - in fact maybe better off
Missouri goes to the Fiesta in that scenario, and Texas either ends up in the MNC or in my dream scenario – either against Bama in the Sugar or USC in the Rose.
Still a Blaine Irby fan
by patienthornsfan on Nov 9, 2008 12:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Texas fans need to be reminding everyone that will listen
that we played Missouri this year while OU and Tech didn’t. All of the ESPN, etc. college football writers have mailbag articles each week, and alot of them do chats as well.
Wouldn’t hurt if Mack brought it up in all of his press conferences the rest of the year as well.
by Horncasting on Nov 9, 2008 12:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
is it possible
this is crazy, and i hate what if scenarios, but is it not possible that if Tech wins out, and florida lost to fla state but won the SEC CG, that Tech would be 1 and we could be 2, assuming we wouldnt be jumped by USC and would maintain a lead over Florida?
i know there are no rules about having to win your conference, but are there rules against 2 teams from the same conference playing in the NCG?
i just cant believe that these kind of scenarios are even possible.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 12:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
There are no rules
But voters would try to prevent it. Especially if the game would be a rematch.
by JohnsonUT on Nov 9, 2008 12:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
crazy
if you compare those three resumes, ours vs USC vs Penn State…..it shouldnt be even a question which one is better.
is the AP bound to crown the same winner as the BCS?
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 12:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Possible
Your scenario is possible. There are no rules to prohibit two teams from the same conference playing for the national title.
Voters would have to make that decision with their final ballot. Would they put Texas #2 ahead of conference champions Penn State and USC, who could also have just a single loss? I don’t know.
--AW--
by awiggo on Nov 9, 2008 12:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They're already doing that
USC has scrubs Stanford, Notre Dame and UCLA left. How could the voters move USC ahead of us even if (when) they win all 3?
I could see Penn State jumping us if they blow out a ranked Michigan State team, but we’re 200 points ahead of PSU right now, that’s an awful lot of ground to make up. And Penn State hasn’t blown out a good team yet.
Still a Blaine Irby fan
by patienthornsfan on Nov 9, 2008 12:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Because of this scenario . . . Go Beavers!
When I’ve thought through this scenario out, the issue is a one-loss USC screaming that they would be locked out of the championship game in favor of a team that didn’t even win its division.
In that case . . . go Oregon State! If Oregon State wins out, they, not USC, win the Pac-10, and USC’s argument falls flat. (Except that perhaps they could argue that they are co-champs of the Pac-10, with OSU getting the Rose Bowl bid based on a tiebreaker, but I don’t think that argument would fly.)
For some reason, I don’t think Penn State would similarly threaten us.
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 9, 2008 4:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i'll say the miracle that we need is for florida to lose to south carolina.
if the gators drop one and we win out, we are most likely guaranteed a top 4 finish wouldn’t you agree? and by that same measure, florida could drop bama in the sec champ game. we are still nowhere near out of the title game, the conf champ game, or a bcs game at all..Really does suck though that we beat a team, and they might jump us just because they play stronger at the end of the season.. I still have faith that we can hold off OU even if they beat Tech and OSU.
by jacobb23 on Nov 9, 2008 12:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Anti USC Scenario
Here’s one for you guys:
Boise State and Utah both win out and earn automatic bids to the BSC. Two down, eight more remaining.
Oregon State wins out and earns the Pac 10 automatic berth. The five other BCS conferences also send their champions. Eight down, two at-large selections remaining.
The Big XII (OU) and the SEC champions (Florida) play for the national title. The Fiesta Bowl wants a Big XII team and takes Texas or Tech. The Sugar Bowl wants an SEC team and takes Alabama who just went 12-1.
Who does that leave out? Yep, that’s right 11-1 and co Pac-10 champions, the USC Trojans. (That is assuming they don’t finish in the top four in the final BCS standings and earn an automatic berth.)
It could happen.
--AW--
by awiggo on Nov 9, 2008 12:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I believe
that if more than one team from a non-BCS conference qualifies automatically, only the top ranked one gets in. The second one gets screwed.
by Longhorn in Canada on Nov 9, 2008 12:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just saw "Anti USC" and wanted to get something off my chest...
Hey, I’m a Tech fan, and this really has nothing to do with ya’ll’s conversation, but I’m here to spread some Anti-USC thoughts. I can’t stand USC, just like I’m assuming you do. I just wanted to say that it really irks me that they think so highly of themselves that they schedule their last game in December, on the same day that real conferences are having their Championships.
They have 3 byes throughout the season and must drag out their glorious season until December 6. I guess they want voters to sit on the edge of their seats and hope that we will forget that it is not a championship game of any kind, but a game against a sub-par Ucla team that means absolutely nothing. They must make a last ditch effort to beat down a patsy in a season of patsies, while UT/OU/TT must play Mizzou and Florida plays Alabama. Even the poons of the Big10 know to end their season on Nov22, two weeks before the championship games.
That is all I wanted to share. I saw “Anti USC” and had to get that off my chest.
Good luck to UT, and if Tech does happen to lose to Ou in 2 weeks, Texas definitely deserves to go to the Big12 Championship, assuming you beat down Kansas and A&m of course. Head to heads speak louder than any ignorant voters who obviously have never watched half the teams they vote/don’t vote for.
by pcrawttu on Nov 9, 2008 4:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
USA TODAY DOESNT MATTER
it isn’t a part of the BCS, the AP poll is and we are ahead of Oklahoma in it. Keep track of the Harris Poll and what happens tonight in the BCS.
by WesleyGottesman on Nov 9, 2008 12:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Other way around
Still a Blaine Irby fan
by patienthornsfan on Nov 9, 2008 12:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
jeez
its really not hard to pull up last weeks bcs rankings and see what the components are. or maybe read a few of the threads here before proclaiming something silly like that.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 12:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW....
don’t know how reliable this guy is but he seems to think we’ll be 3rd when the rankings come out later this evening
by Not Now Chief on Nov 9, 2008 12:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I agree..I think Bama will be jumped by Tech- considering the games yesterday. I think we risk Florida jumping to # 3 and we remain where we are.
However I think OU will drop Tech and OSU will drop OU. In that case Tech represents Big 12 South..,….but if they drop the game in the championship game and assuming FL wins in the SEC then what happens? Alabama drops, OU drops, Tech drops(since they were beat by a lower ranked team)…does this scenario make sense?
by MN_longhorny on Nov 9, 2008 12:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Focus is the ley for Texas right now
We must focus and not worry about any of the BCS stuff. We have had a tendency the last couple of years to lose games at year end that could of put us in a BCS bowl – 2006 and 2007.
Right now, need to bring A game to Lawrence and put a spanking on the Jayhawks, then do the same thing at home to the Aglets.
by texascfo on Nov 9, 2008 1:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
ugh
i dont know how many times people bring this up on message boards, but it just irks the hell out of me.
focus is the job of the players and coaches, which im sure they are working on given our aforementioned past failures.
as a fan, i take great joy in analyzing rankings and statistics and looking at our chances for making it to championship games or BCS games.
having said that, the only thing i can agree on is that beating the jayhawks and aggies is important.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 1:19 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
6th street
I have a great time doing this also. Was just stating the obvious – we need Texas to take care of business to have a shot – they have not accomplished this the last 2 years when everything was right there in front of them. I remember very well these same discussions then and it did not matter – we could not take care of business on the field.
Were they not focused at A&M last year after what happened at the end of 2006?
by texascfo on Nov 9, 2008 1:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Colt
colt was hurt at the end of 2006. he clearly wasnt at full strength for that A&M game. thats a big reason we lost and werent ready.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 8:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Texas is No. 2
in the Sagarin ratings……only .01 behind first place tech.
by Horns82 on Nov 9, 2008 2:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Actually...
We are 3rd in Sagarin’s ratings. His Elo Chess formula is used for BCS standings. We are more than 3 full points behind Tech in his Elo Chess formula and just slightly behind Alabama.
by Top Jimmy on Nov 9, 2008 2:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Another Angle
I think our chances of playing the the Big 12 championship are done. It’s going to be the winner of the Texas Tech/OU game (unless OU somehow loses to OSU). But that doesn’t kill our national championship hopes. Follow me over to the SEC. Let’s say for example that either OU/TTech is one representative to the MNC (the loser is out of the picture). If somehow someway Florida loses focus and subsequently loses to South Carolina (not very likely) or @ Florida St. (slightly higher chance) and then beats Alabama in the SEC Championship game that would leave the door wide open for us to slide up to #2 in the BCS and there you have it. We’re in. Now I think Florida is going to pummel Alabama in the SEC Championship game, and I don’t think they’ll lose to either SC or Fl. St., but crazier things have happened before.
by aaronlybrand on Nov 9, 2008 3:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
All comes down to ou beating TTU
First off TTU does not have to lose twice. If ou beats TTU and there is a three way tie in the Big 12 then the team with the best BCS ranking goes to the Big 12 championship game. ou may jump UT in the BCS polls, but UT has the advantage from the computers and the better Harris poll. So overall if ou beats TTU, UT goes to the Big 12 championship game and to the BCS championship as long as UT wins out.
by JamesF on Nov 9, 2008 4:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Does it come down to where Florida is ranked?
For this scenario, I am assuming:
(a) neither Florida or Alabama loses again before the end of the regular season, and
(b) OU beats Tech and OSU, creating the three-way tie for the Big XII South, with BCS standings the tiebreaker?
It seems as though, based on the somewhat better record of our non-common opponents, we will be ranked higher by the computers than either OU or Tech.
It also seems likely that OU will be ranked ahead of Texas in the Harris and coaches poll, especially with the assumed victory over Tech. I would guess we’d be ahead of Tech unless Tech’s loss was in the form of another Instant Classic game.
In that case, isn’t it critical as to where Florida is in the human polls in relation to OU and Texas? If Florida is a #3 wedge between a #2 OU and a #4 Texas, that increased difference between OU and Texas might give OU the breathing room to overcome the computers. But if Florida is ahead, or behind, both Texas and OU, they no longer serve as a wedge, and it becomes more difficult for OU to make up for the computers.
If that’s the case, I hope Florida starts hanging a century on its remaining opponents!
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 9, 2008 4:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
It seems as though, based on the somewhat better record of our non-common opponents, we will be ranked higher by the computers than either OU or Tech.
thats how it would work in the computers, yes. but the Computers only account for 1/3 of the total bcs value. while we may stay ahead in the computers, the human polls, specifically the coaches poll, continue to show love to OU, and if they get 2 quality wins to finish the season they will likely edge ahead of us.
nobody really knows, but its certainly not a given one way or another.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 8:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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