So You Wanna Go BCS Bowling...
by Peter Bean on Nov 9, 2008 8:26 PM CST
in Football
73 comments
Apologies for going dark this weekend; traveling has kept me from a computer until just now. I've yet to see Saturday's victory over Baylor. Solid enough win, though--certainly good enough to keep the BCS dreams alive. Especially now that the single biggest hurdle--a Penn State loss--has been cleared.
Below I've got your full breakdown of Texas various post-season scenarios. They're better than you might think.
THE ROAD TO MIAMI
There are multiple ways this can happen for Texas, all of which we can break down by what Texas Tech does in the coming weeks. At this point, it's more likely than not that a Big 12 team is going to the title game. All scenarios below assume Texas beating Kansas and Aggie. Beyond that, here's how it breaks down for the Longhorns:
IF TEXAS TECH BEATS OKLAHOMA AND BAYLOR
The Red Raiders win the Big 12 South. Can Texas still get to Miami? It's possible in two different scenarios:
Scenario 1: Tech loses Big 12 Title Game. Could the Red Raiders really be jumped by Texas in this scenario? With wins over Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State? I'm not so sure, but it's possible if Tech gets blown out by the North representative. Human voters would have to decide whether the Red Raiders are the Big 12 South's best team or if they--not Texas--were the undefeated team in the South because this year's game was in Lubbock. I wouldn't count on this scenario, but it'd be interesting and close.
Scenario 2: Tech wins Big 12 Title Game. I'm not so sure this isn't the more likely path for Texas, the story unfolding as so:
- Texas beats KU and A&M handily.
- Tech looks terrific running the table to 13-0.
- Florida loses to FSU before beating Bama. (Or Bama is upset in an ugly game before beating Florida.)
- Human voters decide the Big 12 was the nation's best conference, bar none.
- Human voters think about the classic in Lubbock and decide a rematch isn't something that must be avoided.
IF TECH LOSES TO OKLAHOMA
Scenario 1: Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State. The Red Raiders win the Big 12 South, winning the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Longhorns. At this point, Texas just roots for the North Division champ to win the Big 12 Title game. If it happens, Texas is the one-loss team still standing in the Big 12 and goes to Miami, barring a huge swell of human voting for USC that overcomes their computer problems. Not likely. Texas would be Miami-bound.
Scenario 2: Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State. Now things get really complicated. The Longhorns, Red Raiders, and Sooners finish in a three-way tie in the South, pushing the tie-breaker down to step 5: BCS Standings. AW thinks the narrative would be "Oklahoma hasn't lost since October, most recently beat Tech, and should be the Big 12 South title game participant." That's certainly one possible narrative, but I'm not so sure the most likely. Here's how I see the debate unfolding:
- Best win? Tech got their big win over Texas at home. Oklahoma got their big win over Tech at home. Texas got their big win over Oklahoma... on a neutral field.
- The loss? Texas and Texas Tech dropped one on the road. Oklahoma dropped theirs on a neutral field.
- Oklahoma has some recent BCS history working against it.
- Texas Tech has some "gimmick"/no precedent history working against it.
The humans would have the final say, but Texas has at least as good an opportunity as would Tech and OU. More on this scenario if the Sooners win next week.
One more thing to consider: What if Oklahoma/Tech wins the tie-break, goes to the Big 12 title game, and loses? Texas or Texas Tech/OU slides up. I wouldn't bet against the Horns.
OTHER BCS BOWLS
THE ROSE/SUGAR/ORANGE BOWL
I actually think these are all out of play, barring serious chaos in the Big 12 down the stretch. I think it's Miami, Fiesta Bowl (discussed below), or Cotton Bowl, at this point.
The reason? For Texas to get an at-large selection in the Rose, Orange, or Sugar, it would necessarily mean the Fiesta Bowl spot is taken by the Big 12 North Champ and no Big 12 team is headed to Miami. That's not likely without some chaos.
THE FIESTA BOWL
The Fiesta Bowl scenarios I can imagine for Texas all come about if the Red Raiders or Sooners play for the Big 12 title game, then win, earning a national title berth. The Fiesta would have an at-large big to use replacing their team lost to Miami and could select Texas.
If it's the Longhorns who play in Kansas City--a win sends them to Miami. A loss sends the North Division champ to Tempe, while Texas drops to the Cotton or Holiday Bowl.
CHARTS? CHARTS
For fun, here's a easy-to-follow table predicting the result of various scenarios, assuming (1) Texas wins out and (2) Misses the Big 12 Title Game.
| GM 1 | GM 2 | B12 TITLE | TEXAS BOWL | |
| TECH | OU (W) | BU (W) | WIN | Fiesta |
| TECH | OU (L) | BU (W) | WIN | Fiesta |
| TECH | OU (W) | BU (W) | LOSS | Miami |
| TECH | OU (L) | BU (W) | LOSS | Miami |
| OU | TECH (W) | OSU (W) | WIN | Fiesta |
| OU | TECH (W) | OSU (L) | LOSS | Miami |
That's three ways Texas can get to Miami without playing in Kansas City. Now toss in that Texas could win the South tie-breaker under numerous scenarios, and you can see why I'm not ruling out anything at this point.
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What distinguishes this
from the Ohio State-Michigan scenario from a few years ago is that the Big-12 is considerably better than they were back then. Presuming Texas Tech wins out convincingly (BIG ASSUMPTION) and UT does likewise, I wouldn’t have a problem with a rematch in Miami. That, of course, is premised on collapses elsewhere. We’re probably getting too hypothetical, though I guess that’s the point.
by Skin Patrol on Nov 9, 2008 8:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
I wouldn’t count on it, but it’s absolutely possible, IF the SEC has some chaos down the stretch. Undefeated Bama or one-loss Florida as SEC Champ would get the bid over a rematch. I’m sure of that.
--PB--
by Peter Bean on Nov 9, 2008 8:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What happens if Florida wins one more and then beats an undefeated Alabama in SEC champeenship
in your opinion?
So: Undefeated Texas Tech, one loss Texas, two loss Florida SEC Champion, one loss Alabama. What do you do there? Throw in one loss USC with Oregon State losing somewheres down the line to complicate matters.
by Skin Patrol on Nov 9, 2008 8:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
In that scenario?
It’s a mess…. but I say Lebanon gets the bid.
Kidding aside, I see one-loss Texas getting the bid easily over two-loss Florida, who would have computer problems they can’t overcome. Ditto USC.
--PB--
by Peter Bean on Nov 9, 2008 8:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Out
All these teams have computer issues the Big 12 top teams do not.
Again, though: That’s really the same debate as I walked through above. Texas would have the better resume than Bama. That’ll win the computers and, in your scenario, combine with “Bama just Lost” to send Texas.
My prediction, anyway. If there’s a year for a rematch, it’s this one, with the Big 12 South incredibly strong.
--PB--
by Peter Bean on Nov 9, 2008 8:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I hate the
“just lost” thing, though. I don’t know why it matters whether your lost now or later. That only matters if you’re trying to put the two teams playing best at the end of the season into the MNC, and I prefer putting the most deserving teams (based on an entire season’s body of work) into the game.
I dunno if ’Bama would have the computer problems you suggest since the computers are still pretty hot on them, but I suppose it makes sense to put a Texas team with a loss to an undefeated over an Alabama that lost to two-loss Florida.
I can’t believe Florida lost to Ole Miss wtf.
by Skin Patrol on Nov 9, 2008 8:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I do too
I’m just trying to predict the poll voters, who do dumb stuff all the time.
I could easily be wrong on ALL predictions which depend on human voters doing A over B.
--PB--
by Peter Bean on Nov 9, 2008 8:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, PB
You’re assuming the voters will think logically. History has shown that’s a very bad assumption.
We'll carry the banner high!
Bring On The Cats
by TB on Nov 9, 2008 9:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Timing of game matters, too
A possible Texas-Tech rematch is also distinguished from OSU-Michigan by the fact that the OSU-Michigan game was the last game of the regular season for both teams — with, of course, no championship game either. I tend to recall that some of the anti-rematch sentiment was driven by the fact that it would have been a rematch so quickly.
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 9, 2008 9:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
rematch
their needs to be considerable chatter about this. It was arguably the best game of the year in college football. That particular matchup would be better than any other combination I can maybe think of. Voters though might want to see USCs defense take on tech if Texas and USC both had just one loss.
by Blitzburgh on Nov 9, 2008 8:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
oh
And Florida losing to Florida State would be HUGE. Not likely though, but that really really would open the door.
by Blitzburgh on Nov 9, 2008 9:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Body of work
Oklahoma in 2003 was the only undefeated team and then whipped 35-7 by Kansas St. in the Big XII championship game… obviously got by on body of work to get into the NC game. Computers loved them that year when USC was the AP champ.
That was back when the computers weighed a lot heavier though.
by jtlonghorn on Nov 9, 2008 9:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Very nice, PB. Very thorough...
… You’re damn right the poll voters do dumb stuff all the time, and it has me worried. I’m worried because I believe that the three way tie (OU scenario #2) is the most likely situation to play out. At that point, Texas’ fate is basically in the hands of the pollsters. So who do they choose? That’s anybody’s guess, but I believe that it’s the voters’ job to distinguish which team accomplished the most (aka best resume) prior to November 30th. Not who’s playing the best, not who lost the longest time ago, but which team deserves it the most. Following that logic, it can be argued that:
Tech would have one very good win (Oklahoma State) and one excellent win (Texas) with both of those wins coming at home. The loss would be about as acceptable as a loss can be: in Norman, with the nature of the loss TBD. No shame there.
OU would have two very good wins (TCU at home and Oklahoma State on the road) and an excellent win (Tech) at home. The loss is also a very good one: to Texas on a neutral field in a game where the outcome was not decided until the very end of the contest.
Texas would have two very good wins (Oklahoma State and Missouri at home) and an excellent win (Oklahoma on a neutral field). The loss is also a good one: in Lubbock with an almost epic comeback effort that fell just short. I know that this game was not decided on one play, and that a loss is a loss, but there was one very makeable play that Texas did not make that would have surely given them the win.
When all is said and done, I think it’s reasonable to say that Texas will have the best overall resume of the three teams. However, considering the fact that many voters already have OU in front of Texas despite the head to head win by the Horns, the voters probably won’t apply my logic to their November 30th ballots. These next four weeks are gonna be a blast…
by Sweed4Heisman on Nov 9, 2008 9:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Very astute analysis, Sweed4Heisman -- as was PB's
Something else to consider: Margin of victory may not factor into the computer polls but we all know it does with the human polls. Which makes this very disconcerting:
66
58
62
55
52
That’s Oklahoma point totals against, respectively, A&M, KState, Nebraska, Washington and Cincinnati. True, several of these teams are scuffling; that’s still a helluva lot of points. Plus 49 on Baylor and 45 on Kansas. Resume building, I think we’re calling it.
by edsp on Nov 9, 2008 9:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought the same thing until we picked up major points in the human polls
compared to OU this week.
Still, it wouldn’t hurt for us to do that to Kansas and A&M.
by Horncasting on Nov 9, 2008 9:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting point
about the Tech Texas game being the game of the year. I’ve been saying that there is no way that Texas and Tech play again because the voters wouldn’t allow a non-conference champ to aply for a NC. BUT…If pandemonium breaks out everywhere, I could envision voters thinking “Texas didn’t win their conference, but everyone else has major warts and that was a really great game…”
by SaintBevo on Nov 9, 2008 9:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
yes
there is no scenario where we would be less than 4th in the BCS if we win out. USC and 1 loss Bama would be behind us.
the only scenario where we couldnt be in a BCS game would be OU beating Tech and OSU, and then Mizzou and going to the champ game. Then, if Tech were to only drop to 3 and we remained 4th, they would auto qualify over us and we would go to the Cotton.
this is highly unlikely, becuase if Tech loses to OU and doesnt go to the champ game, I think we will end up ahead of them because of our computer numbers.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 9:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Two scenarios:
in order of likelihood.
Least likely: Three way tie begets a Texas Tech South champion and we win the Big-12 Championship. OU remains ahead of Texas. Texas is snubbed from BCS. Unlikely because I doubt Tech would win a three way tie.
More likely but still fairly implausible: three way tie begets OU as South champion, and they win Big-12 Champeenship. Voters compare Texas Tech to Texas and emphasize head-to-head matchup (since it is a head-to-head comparison), and conclude Tech is better. Implausible because human voters will penalize Tech for losing more recently and computers will like Texas’ overall better SOS, presuming that to be the case.
by Skin Patrol on Nov 9, 2008 9:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
and then there's the intangibles in the selection committee
in a sh*t economy, which team will send the most fans and the most money to the game?
Texas wins that contest hands down. We have arguably the most loyal and most deep-pocketed fan base in the country. Like it or not, the economic upside of picking the ’Horns is a serious consideration.
by Bobster on Nov 9, 2008 9:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
doesnt matter
if you are in the top 4 of the BCS, you auto qualify as long as there arent already 2 auto qualified teams from your conference. meaning, if texas is 3 and tech is 4, the BCS bowls dont get to choose between us. they have to take the team ranked 3rd and the team ranked 4th is SOL.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 9:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think economics matter
As I just posted below, barring an in-season upset (i.e. A&M beats us, Baylor beats Tech, etc.), the BCS will have no free will as to who the two Big XII teams in the BCS will be.
One Big XII team will be going to Miami.
Another Big XII team will get a BCS berth, by rule, as being #3 or #4. And, in that scenario, if Tech is #3 and we’re #4, say hello to the Cotton Bowl, regardless of economics.
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 9, 2008 9:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If we win out, but don't win the South, are we in the BCS?
Is there any possible scenario by which we beat A&M and KU, don’t go to Kansas City, and do not make it to a BCS game?
The only way I see it is if Tech gets to KC undefeated, loses in the championship game, but stays ahead of Texas in the BCS at #3 and #4 and gets the nod by BCS rule.
One thing that seems clear is that, barring a major in-season upset, there will be no discretion as to which Big XII team will get to the BCS, as someone will be ranked #3 or #4 and will have to be chosen. There cannot be a scenario, as CBS Sportsline is advocating, that OU wins out and the Fiesta Bowl “chooses” Tech over Texas due to their beating us. In that scenario, with OU winning out and going to KC and then Miami, either Texas or Tech will almost certainly be automatically in given their rank in the Top 4, and the other team will automatically be shut out. Fiesta Bowl representatives will be able to avoid having to choose between two equally worthy teams.
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 9, 2008 9:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
did you read the 2 responses to your post above? nt
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 9:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't have a chance
That was an inadvertent and incomplete post, and the responses were up before I had my more complete post finished…
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 9, 2008 9:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
not possible
The only way I see it is if Tech gets to KC undefeated, loses in the championship game, but stays ahead of Texas in the BCS at #3 and #4 and gets the nod by BCS rule.
if Tech gets to KC undefeated, that means OU is out of the equation, and the only people ahead of us would be Tech and the SEC winner. so we would be 3rd. in that scenario that you just mentioned, it is entirely possible we would jump into the national title game with a tech CCG loss.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 9:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
...unless
…voters really dislike the idea of a non-conference champion playing in Miami, and USC starts pulling lots of votes that way.
Highly unlikely, but I guess it is theoretically possible. Not anything I’d lose sleep over.
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 9, 2008 9:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i just cant imagine
any scenario where the championship game isnt Big 12 v SEC. both conferences would have to descend into utter and complete chaos for USC to enter the equation. I think the voters recognize the relative strength of the 2 conferences this year.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 9:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Another scenario that gets us to Miami...
Correct me if i’m wrong, but i don’t believe that the following scenario has been discussed:
Premise 1: Texas wins out
Premise 2: OU beats Texas Tech, then loses to Oklahoma State
So, Texas and Texas Tech tie for the Big XII South and Tech goes to the Big XII Championship at Arrowhead. I think that this scenario is highly likely, but wouldn’t this mean that Texas would be the highest ranked team left in the Big XII (due to Oklahoma and Tech dropping another game)?
This would certainly put us @ #2 in the BCS (or perhaps even #1 if Alabama drops another game before the SEC Championship). We would not go to the Big XII Championship Game, and I highly doubt that a Texas Tech win over Mizzou would allow them to jump back ahead of Texas.
Wouldn’t this put us in Miami despite not winning the Big XII South? The basic principle here being that if Tech and OU drop one more game (regular season or Big XII Championship Game), would Texas not rise into the top two in the BCS just by winning out?
Thoughts?
by brownf on Nov 9, 2008 9:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
yes it has been discussed...in PBs post!
Scenario 1: Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State. The Red Raiders win the Big 12 South, winning the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Longhorns. At this point, Texas just roots for the North Division champ to win the Big 12 Title game. If it happens, Texas is the one-loss team still standing in the Big 12 and goes to Miami, barring a huge swell of human voting for USC that overcomes their computer problems. Not likely. Texas would be Miami-bound.
by Blitzburgh on Nov 9, 2008 9:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
more
I did see that PB discussed the scenario above, the difference being that I don’t think that Texas Tech can leap back over Texas just by beating Mizzou in the CCG
by brownf on Nov 9, 2008 9:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah i mean, come on
They beat us head to head and will be the conference champs. You really think theres any argument to be made for Texas over Tech in that scenario?
by Blitzburgh on Nov 9, 2008 9:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, there's an argument
If Tech loses to OU, they just lost to a team we beat on a neutral field.
A one-loss Tech is going to be punished by the voters for losing this late in the season. On to of that they’ll be punished even worse by the computers because their non-con schedule was absolutely miserable (not just one but TWO IAA teams). If the human pollsters consider Texas and Tech reasonably close after the CCG, the computer polls may put us over the top even over a one-loss conference champ Texas Tech. This is even more likely if Alabama remains as an undefeated SEC champ, which would automatically soak up all the #1 votes, leaving Texas, Tech, and others to fight over #2 votes. In that case, the computers could certainly decide who goes to Miami.
by sessamoid on Nov 10, 2008 7:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I still think you are wrong.
But let’s hear that argument? “It’s possible” is not an argument.
Do you think a Big-12 champion Texas Tech with a victory over Missouri should be skipped by Texas?
by Skin Patrol on Nov 10, 2008 7:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
dont assume
We would not go to the Big XII Championship Game, and I highly doubt that a Texas Tech win over Mizzou would allow them to jump back ahead of Texas.
its extremely unlikely that the human voters would allow a team that didnt win its conference championship game to go to the title game. If tech beats missouri, the common assumption is the human voters would vote them ahead of us, even if we both have 1 loss.
having said that, it certainly is possible.
by 6th street on Nov 9, 2008 9:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
awesome news.
well we’re in the top 4, which means if we win out, we’ll have that bye in the first week of the playoffs. That’s good, because we could use the rest to get everyone healthy.
I’m so glad we’ve moved past that antiquated system and can finally stop talking about polls and numbers and who lost to whom and when. who thought that was a good idea?
by the other Andrew on Nov 9, 2008 9:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
It is sad
because it makes so much more sense.
If aliens visited our planet and analyzed the way we decided College Football Champions, they’d vaporize us for sure.
by Skin Patrol on Nov 9, 2008 9:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Total resume
Here’s how I see the debate unfolding:
1. Best win? Tech got their big win over Texas at home. Oklahoma got their big win over Tech at home. Texas got their big win over Oklahoma… on a neutral field.
2. The loss? Texas and Texas Tech dropped one on the road. Oklahoma dropped theirs on a neutral field.
3. Oklahoma has some recent BCS history working against it.
4. Texas Tech has some “gimmick”/no precedent history working against it.
PB – don’t forget the argument that we are the only team that played and beat the North Champion. If the human voters truly go back and look at each team’s total resume I think we get the nod. If they get hung up on timing and knee jerk about OU winning against good teams to finish the season we’ll be in trouble.
by Horncasting on Nov 9, 2008 9:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
OSU also beat them. True, OU and Tech didn't in the regular season.
But Tech beat two of the teams who beat them – OSU and us.
What if OU goes to Miami, plays miserable and still barely wins.
And we win our bowl game going away.
And then we win the final vote by 10 points.
I would enjoy that. Justice.
by whills on Nov 10, 2008 12:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Still think the only way to seperate 3 teams that way
Is to look at who had the tougher schedule, which I believe goes to us because we are the only 1 of the 3 that played Missouri and because of our 4 game stretch that go so much national attention.
by Horncasting on Nov 10, 2008 9:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Another bizarre scenario...
If Florida and Bama both lose another game, and say Florida is the SEC champ with 2 losses, AND
If Tech and Texas both win out, AND
Tech loses a close game to Mizzou in the CCG, THEN
It’s entirely possible that you could have Texas #1 and Tech #2 in the BCS which would send them both to Miami, and Mizzou, being the Big 12 winner, can’t go to the BCS at all. Talk about crazy!
by HookedinOKC on Nov 10, 2008 12:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
i think its an automatic berth for conf champions, no?
by Blitzburgh on Nov 10, 2008 12:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh good lord.
That would leave the #2 team out of the title game. Chaos indeed.
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
by utlonghorn24 on Nov 10, 2008 12:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They talked about this in the Statesman one day...
… can’t find the link, but they asked the BCS commissioner and he said that they would exclude Missouri from the BCS, since the goal is to have a 1 vs. 2 championship game and no conference is allowed to have three BCS teams. The CG takes precedent over the conference tie-in. This is stupid, though, and they should just let a conference with that many good teams take up all the BCS spots they need.
by Horn Brain on Nov 10, 2008 12:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah ok.
Thanks for clarifying. But I agree totally, if a scenario like that comes about, all three teams should get in, no doubt. Kick the independents out for a season and let them whine about it.
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
by utlonghorn24 on Nov 10, 2008 12:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah pretty sure first bids go to #1 and #2
Then conference champs, then top 6, then top 8 etc…
It would be retarded, but its not going to happen.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 10, 2008 9:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The rules for invites, according to wikipedia:
* The top two teams are given automatic berths in the BCS National Championship Game.
* The champion of a BCS conference (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10, and SEC) is guaranteed an automatic BCS bowl bid unless two other teams from their own conference finish #1 and #2 in the final BCS rankings.
* The highest ranked champion of a non-BCS conference will receive an automatic berth if:
o It is ranked in the top twelve, or
o Ranked in the top sixteen and higher than another BCS Conference champion.
* A special case is made for independent Notre Dame, which receives an automatic berth if it finishes in the top eight.
* No more than two teams from any one conference may receive berths in BCS games.
* The third-ranked team will receive an automatic berth if it has not already received one, and if it is a member of a BCS Conference.
* If the third-ranked team did not require an at-large berth, then the fourth-ranked team will receive an automatic berth if it has not already received one, and if it is a member of a BCS Conference.
After the automatic berths have been granted, the remaining berths, known as “at-large” berths, are filled from a pool of teams who are ranked in the top fourteen and have at least nine wins. The actual teams that are chosen for the at-large berths are determined by the individual bowl committees.
If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then an at-large team will be any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings. If fewer than 10 teams are eligible after expanding the at-large pool to 18 teams, then the at-large pool will continue to be expanded by four additional positions in the BCS Standings until 10 or more teams are eligible.4
by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 10, 2008 9:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Won't happen.
If Tech loses to Missouri there’s no way they would stay in the top 2. The voters will make sure of it, and the computers won’t have enough pull to make a difference. The only way this would be possible if Missouri were actually a great team, in which case they would be ranked higher then Tech after that game.
by drycreek on Nov 10, 2008 10:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
do you not remember
Kstate upsetting OU? Its certainly possible, though not probable.
by 6th street on Nov 10, 2008 10:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Tech is not OU.
OU has won 7 national championships, including one only 2 years before that infamous game. So leaving OU in the championship after losing that game to K State is a lot different than leaving Tech in. Has Tech ever even won a conference championship?
by hornalum08 on Nov 10, 2008 6:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, we all wondered where that monkey on Mack's back went. Now we know.
And we should have known. Pirates like monkeys even more than parrots.
by whills on Nov 10, 2008 9:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Bye week
Think having a bye week when OU and Tech play will hurt us in the standings?
Adopt-a-recruit: Devon Kennard DE
Phoenix (AZ) Desert Vista 6'3" 257lbs
by blazzinken on Nov 10, 2008 12:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Not if we beat Kansas.
We’d be sitting pretty at 10-1. The pressure is on them – and one must lose. And for that weekend, we can’t be touched even though we’d be right in the middle of everything and part of the conjecture.
I really am burnt out on projection.
Now, by holding Baylor to 71 yards passing and 6 of 20 passing overall, I’m hoping we improve to double digit in the pass defense rating rather than the triple digit crap we had earned.
by whills on Nov 10, 2008 1:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Im pretty tired of it too
We are just going to have to wait it out. Which is tough.
Have to win the next two and see where that takes us!
Adopt-a-recruit: Devon Kennard DE
Phoenix (AZ) Desert Vista 6'3" 257lbs
by blazzinken on Nov 10, 2008 2:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Here you go...pass defense rank by team through wk 11
Rank – Name
1 – USC
17 – Florida
31 – Alabama
88 – Texas A&M
92 – Oklahoma
97 – Texas Tech
103 – Baylor
110 – Texas
111 – Oklahoma State
IMO, UT and OSU get dinged behind OU and Tech because we both faced Missouri. Missouri racked up 318 yards v. UT and 390 v. Mizzou.
BTW, can I just love the internet.
by TXStampede on Nov 10, 2008 7:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, STampede. I looked it up last night, but we were still 117th.
This is better, but obviously we’ve rolled up some big numbers that are difficult to overcome with one game.
But we’re fifth in run defense.
This particular season and the ability of OU, OSU, Mizzou and Tech to put up stunning passing numbers has warped the standard thinking about pass defense. Keeping them under 400 yards and less than 30 points is a major achievement. Not the SEC would understand.
I watched the BCS show last night and the # 1 reason Alabama is number one for them is SEC. That’s so much bullshit, but those idiots were just locked into the hype.
by whills on Nov 10, 2008 12:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Rooting guide
We need a rooting guide. Haven’t they been done this season yet, or have I missed them?
by wizardimps on Nov 10, 2008 3:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Let's take care of Business
PB, after you watch the entire game film from Saturday, maybe you’ll understand my fears a little better. We were just a couple of breaks away from being behind to Baylor at halftime. Yeah, I know – football is a game of breaks. My view is we did have a let-down following the Tech loss, understandable too. Nonetheless, we prevailed Saturday against the Bears.
What I am afraid of right now is dropping a game we have no business of dropping. If our energy is what it was against Baylor, I fear we are going to drop one in Kansas this week. We always have the proverbial target on our back at Texas, we already gave them bulletin board material (“We’re not Kansas” – Roy Miller), and they really need to ‘get well’ in Lawrence.
Lastly, A&M was improving until they had to play OU and seem to put it together against us every year. I just hope Mack & the team are sufficiently focused on the business at hand.
by HalfmileHorn on Nov 10, 2008 9:34 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
The long Baylor TD was an anomaly but a smart play by BU.
Earl Thomas came out with a dinged ankle and BU immediately picked on his replacement, Ben Wells, for the long shot. Thomas went back in and the greatest part of BU’s passing yardage of 71 came on that play.
I think there’s real physical attritio, and I have some concerns about that. Not just Texas but all the teams. The Horns ability to execute gets nicked by the extend of the injuries, even if they aren’t major. So that does play to the concerns about going to Kansas and hosting aTm. In 2006 the Horns’ D was really beat up and the aglets just hammered them; still, it was only 12-7. So, if the offense can keep chugging, we’ll be ok. Otherwise we might need a few breaks, too.
by whills on Nov 10, 2008 12:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Timing
Something not yet mentioned is how the rankings would settle after a Tech loss to Oklahoma. Would that jump OU over Texas? If not, we are still in line for a championship berth. And winning the Big 12 match gives us another chance to advance. But if OU lands ahead of us, then we back to are hoping for them to lose the Big 12 game, and even then we are sitting idle while someone wins the SEC.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
by Caradoc on Nov 10, 2008 9:43 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
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