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Blog Poll Draft Ballot: Texas vs OU

Though the Blog Poll in its third year found a flashy new home at CBSSports.com, it is unfortunately not yet a component of the BCS. Translation: My vote means jack.

That's never stopped me before, though--nor will it today. My draft ballot after the jump, followed by substantive commentary, almost entirely devoted to my final take on Texas-vs-OU.

Star-divide

RankTeamDelta
1 Texas 1
2 Oklahoma 1
3 Florida 1
4 Alabama 3
5 Penn State 1
6 Southern Cal 1
7 Utah 1
8 Texas Tech 1
9 Boise State 1
10 Ohio State 2
11 Oklahoma State 2
12 TCU 2
13 Boston College 3
14 Georgia Tech 4
15 Georgia 2
16 Virginia Tech 7
17 Mississippi 3
18 Missouri 7
19 Cincinnati --
20 Oregon State 5
21 Florida State 4
22 Oregon 2
23 Ball State 1
24 Michigan State 1
25 Clemson 1

Dropped Out: California (#21).

BALLOT NOTES

  • I noted last week that I didn't feel good about Alabama #1/Utah #8 and would have to tackle the issue this week. I have, ultimately deciding to drop Bama down a few slots, while nudging Utah up a few. Though in the real BCS world the Tide have the world in their palms, their regular season resume is "only" very good. Nothing wrong with being undefeated, of course, and the Tide can stamp the top spot with a win over Florida on Saturday. This week, however, they drop--Georgia and Clemson's worse than expected seasons holding them back.
  • Sliding up to #1 is... Texas. Though I'm fine conceding that there exist rational arguments for ranking OU ahead of Texas and there's no Absolute Right answer, the pro-OU arguments don't work for me. Below is an exhausting-but-not-exhaustive look at the critical factors:

    Non-Con Strength of Schedule:  Voters favoring Oklahoma frequently cite the Sooners' non-conference Top 20 double dip against Cincinnati and TCU--those top two OOC foes handily trumping Texas' top two (Rice and Arkansas). With that said, Oklahoma also played UT-Chattanooga (1-AA) and 0-11 Washington (#150 Sagarin). Though Rice wound up having quite a nice year in the WAC, Florida Atlantic crashed out of the gates, Arkansas was non-competitive the first half of the season in a transition year, and UTEP... well, they never should have been scheduled. That one's on Mack Brown and Deloss Dodds. All told, even with the Sooners' two non-contests, the wins over TCU and Cincinnati provide ammo for the pro-Oklahoma argument.

    Conference Schedule: Here's where the pro-OU arguments lose me, and why in my view Texas is really unfortunate not to be playing in Kansas City next week. Obviously, both OU and Texas faced each Big 12 South team, but the North rotations differed. Texas drew two of the North's competitive teams--Missouri in Austin, Kansas on the road; the Sooners hosted in Norman both of their North opponents with a pulse (Kansas, Nebraska). Missouri (52-17 blowout winners over the Huskers) provided for Texas a tougher row to hoe, and not only is this beginning point for where the pro-OU arguments unravel for me, it's also where Texas' (mis)fortunes were decided on Saturday. Had Missouri held off Kansas, Texas would have held their ground at #2 in the BCS.

    (While we're on weekend misfortunes, a quick parenthetical on how misaligned the stars were for Texas. The Missouri loss was catastrophic, but the bad omens really began on Friday, when Colorado lost a one-point lead in Lincoln with two minutes left in the game, thanks to a 4th and 25 hail mary 57-yard field goal. Not only would a Buffs upset have helped the 'Horns and dinged the Sooners (decisively so, looking at the final BCS numbers), but as if to torture Longhorns fans, Colorado's final chance to answer the Huskers ended when a Cody Hawkins tipped pass was intercepted and ran to the end zone by a 320 pound defensive tackle.)

    With their loss Saturday, Missouri has proven to be a good-not-great team this year, making the North schedule a Texas advantage, but no more a trump card than Oklahoma's non-conference advantage. It's in turning to the 'Horns and Sooners' Big 12 South schedules where my inability to buy the pro-Oklahoma arguments begins to take shape.

    1. Head-To-Head:  Neutral field in Dallas, Texas wins 45-35. If that result can't decide this thing all by itself, in my analysis it presents a high hurdle for the loser to overcome. Some clearly thought OU did just that, but I struggle to agree in part, I think, because of how closely I watch Big 12 football. I've seen all Texas' games and 10 of the Sooners', and my pre-season feeling about these teams (Sooners would win 7 or 8 out of 10 against Texas) is reversed. The 'Horns victory was no fluke, and if the two teams played over and over, I'm convinced more games than not would wind up just like the actual one in Dallas: Fast OU start, patient and steady attacks/adjustments from Muschamp, Mike Venables mediocrity stopping the pass, and a 4th quarter romp for the deeper, steadier Longhorns. That's my opinion, with which folks may feel free to disagree. But it is a highly informed one. (Read: I'm not just speaking as a Texas fan.)
    2. Challenge Density: I'm sort of making this term up, but it's absolutely relevant to me that Texas played n-OU, vs-Missouri, vs-Oklahoma State, at-Texas Tech in successive weeks. The Sooners toughest stretches were a pair of two-week tests: n-Texas, vs-Kansas and vs-Tech, at-OSU.

      A few points related to this. First, Texas faced a daunting, not at all insignificant schedule challenge that should be considered in evaluating their season performance. Second, if this seems a little tough to do in the abstract, go grab the four game tapes and compare the Texas team that played in Dallas versus the battered, bruised, and mentally exhausted team that played (half a game) in Lubbock. Third, Texas' only loss of the year came on the road in Lubbock, at the back end of this stretch, after a wild, nightmare of a first quarter put Texas deep in the hole. Texas regrouped and assumed control in the second half, held Tech out of the end zone until the final play, and were a dropped gimme-INT away from the win. Fourth, the Sooners enjoyed a related advantage when Texas Tech arrived in Norman having to play a comparable-to-Texas third straight huge game. Oklahoma? Had played at home versus Nebraska two weeks prior, then in College Station against the woeful Aggies. Like Texas' disastrous first-half performance in the finale of their brutal stretch (ending in road defeat), the Sooners handily won a wild, fan-crazed first half over a worn-looking Tech squad.

      Can I quantify all this that I just discussed? Not even close, but I again offer an informed opinion when I insist it was a legitimate scheduling disadvantage for the Longhorns, a contributing factor to Texas' sole loss, and, on the flip side, an advantage for OU, which after the RRS drew its only two moderate tests (Kansas, Nebraska) at home, enjoying easier road weeks in Manhattan and College Station before greeting the Red Raiders again in Norman--with Tech playing its third straight "biggest game in program history."

    3. Venue:  Doc Saturday doesn't think much of home field advantage, and across a big enough sample, I'm in agreement that the advantage isn't an enormous one. But sitting here today, after watching this particular season in the Big 12, I can't even begin to figure out how I could justify ignoring its importance in this year's South Division, loaded with four very, very strong teams. And while we're here, the top three teams from the clearly weaker North Division were Top 35 teams in Sagarin's final ratings (Missouri #13, Nebraska #30, Kansas #35). The Big 12 as a whole was loaded with strong teams this year; the Big 12 South was just silly.

      One week into the Big 12 season, Texas, OU, Tech, and OSU were each 5-0 with perfect non-con slates and an opening week conference win (including OSU over Mizzou). Big 12 fans anticipating an unusually strong and competitive conference realized the top teams--especially in the South--were even stronger than anticipated, the competition to get to Kansas City would be more hyper-competitive than imagined, and in all likelihood the accompanying prize for the conference champion was a trip to Miami.

      All I'm saying is this: Lubbock night games are the Bermuda Triangle of college football during a normal year; it was out in the Twilight Zone for the '08 title run. Drawing a worn down Texas squad and then Oklahoma State to West Texas was a significant advantage for Tech. Elsewhere, Norman is always an advantage for Oklahoma, but drawing a worn down Tech squad there with the Sooners back banging on the door to contention was a recipe for redneck pandemonium. Which it was--they were square dancing in the stands like it was the national title game itself. And finally, even Austin got rowdy this year, the post-OU Missouri crowd fueled what was by far the most aggressively loud home game in years.

      Add it all up and it's another slight advantage for OU: They drew Texas Tech in Norman, with the Red Raiders at the back end of a tough stretch and the Sooners rejuvenated from a nutritious meal of fresh collie meat. Meanwhile, their road test was against the #4 team in the conference and their North Division opponents with a pulse (KU, NU) came to Norman. By contrast, the Longhorns had to tackle Texas Tech in Lubbock at the end of their insane four-week stretch and were forced to take on one of their North challengers (Kansas) on the road.

      4. Common opponents:  Both teams dispatched of Baylor and Texas A&M with ease. Texas outperformed the Sooners against the Jayhawks (35-7 in Lawrence vs 45-31 in Norman). The Sooners outperformed the Longhorns against Tech (33-39 in Lubbock, 65-21 in Norman) and Oklahoma State (28-24 in Austin, 61-41 in Stillwater).
    Margin of Victory: As I noted on Sunday (and, certainly, as evidenced above by all the different factors I consider relevant in the conference schedule analysis), there are plenty of variables one could look at and weight differently in analyzing Texas-OU. I'm going to stop after this one, but I bring up MOV because it seems to be informing enough of the pro-OU arguments to warrant public inspection.

    Three points from me here: (1) I'm all for looking at everything in an effort to be thorough and look for useful evidence that can help inform the decision. (2) I do consider MOV a potentially useful tool in the ranking toolbox. (3) MOV without context loses much of its instructive power.

    For a refresher, let's put Texas' and OU's schedules side-by-side:

    Texas MOV Oklahoma MOV
    FAU W, 52-10 +42 UT-Chat W, 57-2 +55
    @ UTEP W, 42-13 +29 Cincy W, 52-26 +26
    Rice W, 52-10 +42 @ Washington W, 55-14 +41
    Arkansas W, 52-10 +42 TCU W, 35-10 +25
    @ CU @, 38-14 +24 @ Baylor W, 49-17 +32
    n-OU W, 45-35 +10 n-Texas L, 35-45 -10
    Mizzou W, 56-31 +25 Kansas W, 45-31 +14
    OSU W, 28-24 +4 @ KSU W, 58-35 +23
    @ Tech L, 33-39 -6 Nebraska W, 66-28 +38
    @ Kansas W, 35-7 +28 @ A&M W, 66-28 +38
    Baylor W, 42-21 +21 Texas Tech W, 65-21 +44
    A&M W, 49-9 +40 @ OSU W, 61-41 +20

When I look at the chart, I fail to see a silver bullet for Oklahoma. The Tech blowout was undeniably impressive and they won at Oklahoma State by roughly two scores, while Texas won close in Austin.

(Though some may be tempted to award OU points for beating TCU and Cincinnati by 20+, where not-shared opponents are concerned I think a fair analysis has to be careful to avoid double-rewarding the Sooners (see non-con analysis above). Where among common opponents MOV is more useful to help compare and contrast two teams, the analysis is less cut and dry when looking at performances against unique opponents. Here, Oklahoma deserves and receives credit for playing and defeating soundly at home both Cincinnati and TCU; however, the record more than supports the case that Texas could and would similarly handle both of those good-not-great teams in Austin. Giving Oklahoma an additional MOV boost for their performances is in a comparison of two teams like these, an unjust enrichment grounded too much in opportunity.)

On the other side, Texas wholly smothered Kansas in Lawrence, while OU's defense (the most overrated group in the country, by the way) flailed in Norman. And that's a nice segueway into my final point on this: the biggest difference in the two teams here is strengths and styles. I think it's absolutely fair to conclude that Oklahoma has one of--probably the--most explosive offense in the country. But as I just mentioned in passing, OU's defense isn't what it's cracked up to be, Mike Venables is (and has been since he took over) mediocre, the safeties are solid run stoppers laughably overrated as all-around defensive backs, and their defensive line is talented but inconsistent.

Texas, meanwhile, is strong offensively--performing far, far beyond my most optimistic projections for this season--but without any developed game-breaking skill position players. The running game is only adequate because of McCoy, who is also, of course, the superfreak passer who makes Texas' offense so dangerous. In addition, the Longhorns lost their go-to tight end for the season during the Rice game, have relied on two outstanding (though not consistent deep ball threats) veteran receivers for most of the season, and are at times hamstrung by a coaching staff who, while improved this year, still very much plays things rather conservatively (at its worst, in the form of playing not to lose). On the other side of the ball, Texas' defense--loaded with underclassmen in starting and key reserve roles--showed promise and steady development through the first half of the season, have rounded into a group far, far superior to their Big 12-inflated statistics, and are led by the most impressive defensive coordinator ever to coach a team I follow closely.

All told, Saturday night's game in Stillwater pretty much sums up my feelings on this: Oklahoma was ridiculous on offense, mediocre on defense, and won by 20 in large part because its explosive offense picked up 7 points in the final minute of each half. Oklahoma is the King Fish of the typical 2008 Big 12 team: superior offense, inconsistent (or bad) defense. While they are ideally suited to feast on most of the Big 12, when twice the Sooners faced strong defenses this year, they were held to 35 in each game (losing to Texas, beating TCU). The Longhorns can't match Oklahoma in terms of offensive explosiveness, but the defense is superior. All told, though Oklahoma is probably better suited to rack up MOV points than the Longhorns, the aggregate data--aided with context--doesn't in my mind do much of anything for Oklahoma. If someone wants to double-count TCU/Cincy, a Texas supporter can just point to his Ace of Spades, -10 head-to-head in Dallas, happy to start allowing double-counting.

Final verdict:  For me, these two teams have each had great seasons, featuring an overwhelming majority of excellent performances overshadowing one or two below-average efforts. Both teams beat weak teams easily, have proven their mettle against elite teams, and deserve to go BCS Bowling. And as I continue to say, I think there are rational pro-Oklahoma arguments that can be made.

But if I'm fine admitting the analyses undertaken are rational, from my perspective the conclusion doesn't follow from the points offered. Oklahoma enjoys a few advantages (e.g. two strong non-con teams, superior performances against Tech and OSU), but I'm unable to look at these two resumes outside the robust contextual investigation and weighting of factors I dove into above: I think home field is a minor but far from irrelevant factor; I consider Texas' conference scheduling challenge to be a significant one when compared with Oklahoma's (and, why it matters, a significant contributing factor in Texas' lone loss in Lubbock); and so on. All that stuff from above.

For me, if the final scorecard is as close as it is in my analysis, whether or not the Sooners are the ones who score slightly higher, the head-to-head hurdle has not been cleared. In this system, voters are of course wholly free to weight the variables differently than I have, but while I've seen plenty of pro-OU arguments that do just that in a rational way, I have yet to see one that either (A) demonstrates what I would call a sizable Oklahoma advantage on the scorecard, or (B) if it does, seems to me an analysis even remotely near the same ballpark as my own.

Finally, as a point of contrast, I do think Texas has enough of an overall scorecard advantage over Texas Tech to clear the head-to-head hurdle. It's not obvious--there's more than enough room to argue--but I think it's an absolutely fair conclusion to draw. Some may not--just as some may fairly argue for Oklahoma--but I see Texas and Oklahoma in the clubhouse with comparably strong scorecards, whileTexas Tech (worst non-con schedule of the three or perhaps of any D-1 school, Nebraska Overtime, blowout loss to OU, top two wins at home, Baylor squeaker in Lubbock) scores just far enough behind that I'm comfortable saying Texas has cleared the narrow head-to-head loss in Lubbock.

And that's that. I'll be reading Blog Poll voters' explanations over the coming days, and will try to share any pro-Oklahoma arguments I come across that seem both fair and compelling. In the meantime, this is just one man's opinion. Because I analyze this as I do--and quadruply so because I live and die for the 'Horns--today's fall in the BCS Standings hurts. I can be dignified in mourning, but I'm exceptionally disappointed. Texas should be in Kansas City.

If there's any justice, Missouri will redeem themselves for Saturday's failure. I suppose we're all Tigers fans for another week. Fill out your fan application here.

  • Um, that was long. More on other teams in next week's effort, I suppose. As always, have at my ballot in the comment section below. I have until Wednesday to revise and always appreciate the suggestions.

 

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you keep saying....

“…there exist rational arguments for ranking OU ahead of Texas…”

But it seems to me, that unless one seriously thinks Texas might not have beaten Cincy and TCU at home, that there’s really only one argument that OU boosters are using… “look how many bright shiny points we’re scoring!!!” Blowout wins, complete with aggressive attempts to score multiple times after the outcome was determined, trumped the head-to-head on a neutral field and the navigation of a tougher schedule.

The thing that really frosts me is that coaches bought into that. You’d think that people whose livelihood depends so much on keeping alums happy would think a little more before so richly rewarding blowouts and piling on scores. And not that I remain bitter or anything, but I hope that even coaches like Mack take a look at coaches who voted that way and feel liberated to run up huge, huge scores and keep in all the starters deep into a blowout without any pretension to acting classy or teaching sportsmanship. That is most evidently a passe concept in today’s environment… at least for any coach who rewarded it.

by Pflash on Dec 1, 2008 3:46 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Heresy...

…is something I embrace with great reluctance. The defensive genius Big Game Bob is almost as well known for running up the score as he is for his impressively mediocre defense and big game chockes over the last half decade plus.

Still, to the extent that any voter gives OU a preferance over Texas, the last two games are clearly their strongest on which to hand the argument and the running up of the score, such as it was was farily de minimus, especially by OU standards.

The destruction of Tech was,, in the toality of circumstances elaborated on by PB above extraordinarily impressive, and given Tech’s offensive prowess it made sense to put a lot of points on the board. Bardford might reasonably have been pulled a series or 2 earlier but in the whole scheme of things it was farily respectable effort by OU. The last touchdown against OSU was clearly gratuitous, but up until that stage OU needed every point, and theri ability to get them in the manner they did does give some plausible, though not convincing arguments for giving the LT’s a slight edge over Texas.

marshalld

by duras on Dec 1, 2008 10:06 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

While there are pro-OU arguements

there still isn’t any HARD evidence that justifies OU being ranked above Texas. Ranking OU ahead of Texas is basically using the “hot team” theory, which is BS. The coaches are thinking “what would happen if Texas and OU met now?” No real evidence can be brought up to justify this. I feel MOV is not a valid point as OU ran up the score against Tech and OSU. The funny ironic thing is this: when trying to figure out who to rank ahead of who, don’t most voters think what the outcome of the game would be on a neutral field? I also find it funny in the awkward laugh “haha” sort of way that our best friends, the computers, backstabbed us in the end.

Still great season from the 2008 ‘Horns. Can’t wait to see “Big Game Bob” choke against Florida and the 2009 season.

by clra2 on Dec 1, 2008 4:56 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Oregon State above Oregon?

Still a Blaine Irby fan

by patienthornsfan on Dec 1, 2008 6:08 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Well played sir

Perhaps the most recognizable mascot in sports, and certainly the toughest looking, Bevo is a fixture

by run Bevo run on Dec 1, 2008 12:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I like your rankings

And not just for #1. I like it because it goes against the conventional thinking that being in a major conference and being undefeated is the be all and end all. This erroneous thinking prompts teams to schedule the likes of UTEP and “directional” schools for OOC easy prey, making for boring and meaningless games and leading us to pin our hopes on the weaklings we schedule actually playing well after they play us.

"Only angry people win football games." --DKR

by OBdoc on Dec 1, 2008 9:02 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

bama

Isnt it crazy how an sec team can go undefeated the whole regular season without beating a single top 15 team?

by vyvyvy on Dec 1, 2008 10:13 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

That would be a real nice argument

except that there were three in the top 11 at the time we waxed them. You can’t say that the horns beat a top ten mizzou, a #1 OU, and a top ten Okie State, and then deny that we did much the same. It doesn’t work both ways.

by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 1, 2008 5:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

OkSt and Mizzou are both still ranked (OkSt around 12, Mizzou down at 20). Clemson and LSU are not even close (come to think of it, LSU wasn’t top 11 at the time), and Georgia has dropped to the 16-18 range.

It’s not accurate to say Texas played four top-12 games in a row, but it’s far less inaccurate than saying Bama has played three top-12 teams.

by SpartanDan on Dec 1, 2008 5:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How is it inaccurate?

You can’t scream “45-35 over #1 on a neutral field”, if someone else doesn’t get to say “41-30 over #3 on the road” or “34-10 over #9 on a neutral field”. Either they are where they are WHEN YOU BEAT THEM, or they are where they are AT THE END OF THE YEAR. If the former, then ditch the hypocrisy; if the latter, then that can only be known in Jan., and it’s still very much a work in progress.

E.g., after Mizzou gets whacked…again…how impressive is that four loss win? At the time, it was damned nice. When TTU gets done by Ole Miss, were they or were they not still #2 when you lost to them? If OU loses to Mizzou, and drops to like 9-11, were they #1 or #11?

Not trying to start stuff, just get some consistency? I tend to take the long road approach…the season sorts out who’s really good (OU) and who sucks (Mizzou). That’s all.

by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 1, 2008 6:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I mean...that TTU

was NOT #2 at the time, obviously. But the point stands.

by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 1, 2008 6:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Missouri hasn't played......

…..any team worth a crap! That season opening victory over Illinois doesn’t look like much today. Maybe, just maybe, you can make a case for the 8-4 Nebraska win.

The combined record of those teams they beat is an abysmal 47-61.

Missouri has been grossly overrated the entire season. They may have been ranked #11 when we played them, but after they lose the Big-XII CCG they’ll be a 4-loss team on the outside of the Top-25.

5-7 Illinois 52-42
4-8 SE MissouriSt 52-3
7-5 Nevada 69-17
7-5 Buffalo 42-21
8-4 Nebraska 52-17
5-7 Colorado 58-0
4-8 Baylor 31-28
5-7 Kansas State 41-24
2-10 Iowa State 52-20

Losses to:

9-2 Okla.State 23-28
10-1 Texas 31-56
7-5 Kansas 37-40

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Dec 1, 2008 11:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Current rankings are what matter

When evaluating the strength of a win, you have to take into account all available data about that team. That goes for both Texas and Alabama. The available data does not suggest that the early-season rankings of Clemson, Georgia, or LSU were remotely accurate. The available data does suggest that the rankings of Texas’s major opponents at the time the games were played were reasonably accurate – the OkSt and Mizzou wins were slightly overvalued at the time, while Alabama’s wins over Clemson and LSU were very heavily overvalued and the win over Georgia was significantly overvalued as well.

By that standard, Texas has three top-15 wins and another top-20 win, and Alabama has no top-15 wins and one top-20 win.

by SpartanDan on Dec 2, 2008 12:42 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

2 questions
Had Missouri held off Kansas, Texas would have held their ground at #2 in the BCS.
Not only would a Buffs upset have helped the ’Horns and dinged the Sooners (decisively so, looking at the final BCS numbers)

Do we have mathematical proof of this?

And also, if (when) the Sooners defeat Mizzou, will you jump OU above Texas in your final regular season blogpoll?

by jc25 on Dec 1, 2008 10:18 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

If Red River

Switches weekends with UT/aTm and OU/OSU this isn’t even a discussion.

That speaks volumes to me.

by MeanMr.Mustard on Dec 1, 2008 10:27 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

You might have something there, MeanMr.Mustard

Once upon a time in the SWC days, Texas would come out of the RRS and have to face Arkansas. As Arkansas gained power, that became a helluva 1-2 punch, esp. when the Horns had to go to the hills. This scheduling began in 1937 and it wasn’t until 1969 that TV persuaded the schools (and the conference) to move the game to the first week in December. That set up the Big Shootout.

They did it again in 1970, but dropped it until 1976, when both Royal and, surprisingly, Frank Broyles resigned their HC jobs. Only in 1982 under Fred Akers did Texas and Arkansas play again in the first week in December. Otherwise the Hogs would remain the game after the RRS until they left the conference in 1991. Texas won all four of the games played in December.

Of course, the Texas-OU game is the highlight of the State Fair of Texas, which runs for some 24 days from the third week of September until mid-October. So, there will be no moving of the RRS unless the series should be detached from the State Fair.

So, as good as your idea is of moving the RRS, it doesn’t stand a chance at the present time.

by whills on Dec 1, 2008 12:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, it still is

Because Texas Tech would still be involved in the tie. That is the monkey wrench in all of the “45-35” arguments – thanks to TTU, there are two equally simple counterarguments (“39-33” and “65-21”).

I think there is a case to be made for Texas (largely on the basis of the added degree of difficulty in running the OU-Mizzou-OkSt-TTU gauntlet in consecutive weeks), but head-to-head alone isn’t it. I don’t see how it’s any less legitimate to rank all three teams at once by some criteria (be it head-to-head scores, strength of schedule within the conference, nonconference play, what have you) than it is to eliminate one and use head-to-head among the other two.

by SpartanDan on Dec 1, 2008 5:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent marshalling...

…of arguments PB, and it would seem a clear if not overwhelming advantage to Texas.
Doc Saturday is reluctant to get into the more amorphous aspects of the ranking but your deliniation is quite sufficiently concrete, it would seem, to overcome his understandable reluctance.

To add an even more amorphous, but it seems to me not inconsquential argument, however, we might consider the second half against Tech. Our ability to come back, in Lubbock, in the last 2 of 16 very competative quarters of football showed an ability to deal with adversity that OU has not come close to displaying.

Now, I don’t thing this argument in necessarry to give Texas the preferance over OU in light of the very close nature of the competition and the head-to-head in Dallas. Still, it is a factor to consider and it would seem to me the resiliance we displayed there would stand us in good stead in a rematch with the Sooners.

Finally, there was an item in the New York times, to the effect that even if OU somehow looses to Missouri, the pollsters might prefer the PAC-10 Champions USC over the Horns. Now in light of the strength of the Big 12 and specacular crapiness of the PAC-10, and even moreso when one considers th Texas/OU connundrum this seems a particuarly prepostrous argument this year. Furthermore, even in consideration of all the love showered on USC, given that the “non-champion” team is TEXAS, rather than, say Missouri, I don’t see anyway how USC could pass us.

marshalld

by duras on Dec 1, 2008 10:28 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Computer poll component question

Do the computer components of the BCS take into account head to head games when deciding placement of teams? I wouldn’t think that they do. If not, this would give OU an EXTREMELY unfair advantage in placement in the BCS. Can anyone shed any light on this? What’s done is done, but I’ll be rooting like hell for Mizzou in the CCG.

by UTexasCPA on Dec 1, 2008 11:20 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Why is this any more “EXTREMELY unfair” than you having an advantage over TTU in such placement?

As to the algorithms myself, my guess is that at least five out of the six do not. The head-to-head results are input to the algorithm but if the other 11 games provide even an infinitesimally greater advantage, they don’t look back at head-to-head and overrule it. (I wouldn’t rule out any sort of craziness on Billingsley’s part, as his is less an “algorithm” and more a monkey trying to write Shakespeare. But I doubt there are any sort of ad hoc adjustments by the others.)

by SpartanDan on Dec 1, 2008 6:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Dream scenario

As Doc Saturday points out today http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/BCS-Realpolitik-Oklahoma-it-is-but-a-new-route?urn=ncaaf,125550

there is a chance that we get a rematch with OU in Miami. I’m not holding my breath, but consider the following scenario. Rak and Kindle against OU’s O-line, with non-Big 12 officials. In the 4th quarter, Rak grabs the challenge flag from Mack and throws it, protesting that Kindle was awarded half a sack, tying him with Rak with 20 apiece for the game. Lossess from sacks combined with penalty yards from holding result in each of OU’s drives being for minus 40 yards.
OK, I said it was a dream.

by Longhorn in Canada on Dec 1, 2008 12:03 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Jane, you ignorant slut.

You knew we were number one all along but give you gave yourself to every media gigolo you could find. In the end you got okie disease, for which there is no known cure. Serves you right.

by whills on Dec 1, 2008 12:44 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Florida/Bama and the 7 dwarves

Both are getting too much love and credit. The SEC definitely had a down yr, as evidenced by this last weekend, going 1-3 against the ACC.

Florida had 3 good victories (Miami, Georgia and Fl St) All three teams are essentially the equivalent of Mizzou. They lost AT HOME to Ole Miss. How is this team any better or more worthy than Penn State or USC?

Bama had 2 good victories (Clemson and Georgia – both on the road). Again essentially the same as beating Mizzou. Where would Bama be rated if they had lost to Ole Miss at home (as they almost did)? Would they be getting the love that Florida is or the crap that USC and Penn State are getting?

As far as I am concerned this year has the most teams with the most valid arguments fro there ever being a playoff. Usually there are 3 or 4 teams that are possibly legitimate. This year I truly believe everyone in the top 9 are deserving of consideration.

The only thing that has been proven to me is that while defense might win championships, offense wins you votes. Either go undefeated in the big6 conferences or put 50+ on the board regardless of how many the other team scores. This is the only rational way to see why Florida and OU are ranked higher than Texas, PSU and USC. Tech of course being the exception as they are viewed as a system and don’t have the history of the other schools.

by ethan on Dec 1, 2008 12:52 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Mizzou would get absolutely whacked

By 3-4 teams in the SEC…the same as they did in the B12. And, hey, just for funsies, put your 3rd overall in the cotton bowl and sit back and enjoy what Ole Miss does to Tech.

by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 1, 2008 5:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh please

They would get whacked by Florida, and probably Alabama. But Georgia? I doubt it (they can’t stop SEC offenses, what makes them think they’d have a prayer against a Big XII offense?). LSU? Don’t make me laugh. Ole Miss? They might keep it close, but “whacking” Mizzou is pretty unlikely.

by SpartanDan on Dec 1, 2008 6:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I was more thinking

Ole Miss, Alabama, Florida, and yes Georgia. Georgia has a helluva’ offense. Concededly, that would be a shoot out, though.

by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 1, 2008 6:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Blog envy?

I wonder whether the networks and bowl sponsors who seem to be running this sport would have enough respect for the blogosphere to even consider including the blogpoll in the ratings. As far as I can tell, sports bloggers are treated only slightly better than political bloggers by the establishment media. If we could get a web-friendly company (Google?) to take over sponsorship from one of the failing corporations we have now, then they might consider our rankings in selecting an at-large team.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Dec 1, 2008 1:13 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

It won't happen because bloggers aren't viewed as being "objective"

I say “viewed” because … ummm COACHES aren’t objective either, or most journalists for that matter. But coaches and journalists have this aura that they will be fair when other people can’t be. It would be fun to see the outcome if that were to happen.

But, I think a playoff is much more likely though, to be honest. Everyone needs to head over to RockMNation.com to get your fan visa for the Big XII championship game!

"I have CDO. It's like OCD, but the letters are in alphabetical order. Like they should be."

by BigMOman on Dec 1, 2008 3:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My poll

I also am trying to conduct a poll on who is second best {click on my blogs} but this is a funny poll with alabama in fourth

AUSTIN

by aos on Dec 1, 2008 4:32 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Take a look at the schedule

Alabama’s SOS is 73rd according to Sagarin – a number that wouldn’t be out of place in the Mountain West (in fact, Utah’s is 72nd – one spot better). Two BCS teams have worse schedules (Louisville and Arizona). That’s why Bama isn’t getting any respect yet. Beat Florida and they jump to #1, no arguments (their schedule still won’t be great but it’ll at least be a mediocre BCS schedule instead of a mediocre MWC schedule, and at that point a 0 in the loss column trumps pretty much anything else), but for now it’s entirely reasonable to think there are several better teams, whether you define that as “who would win” or “who has accomplished more to this point” (as a matter of fact, I think the Doc had Bama sixth).

by SpartanDan on Dec 1, 2008 6:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You beat who you beat

For instance, do you REALLY think that OU thought Cincy would win 10 games when they were scheduled? Or that Arkansas would absolutely suck this year? SOS is manageable to some respect by the teams. Play Arkie, or Clemson, or any other team that is usually decent and take care of your business. But you can’t be responsible for how teams perform beyond that one game you play them in. You can criticize playing Rice, and Arkie St, etc. But, you have no control over whether or not a TAMU is going to suck, just like we can’t control that Tenn., Clemson and Auburn wet the bed all year.

by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 1, 2008 6:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Completely agree

I wasn’t trying to state that Florida or Bama suck (in the thread above). I was trying to point out that no one really knows who of the top 9 truly deserve the right to play in the MNC.

However, I think it has been shown that points scored rather than points allowed is a bigger factor when it comes to votes.

by ethan on Dec 1, 2008 11:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

To a degree, there’s some truth to that (scheduling is done well before anyone knows who’s going to be good). But if we’re going to pick only two teams to play for the title, it’s going to involve some hair-splitting.

I don’t like leaving any unbeaten without a chance to earn it on the field (the biggest reason I favor a playoff), but if we have to narrow it down to just two teams, it is possible (and, in the case of non-BCS teams, often likely) that a one-loss team is more deserving of that chance by virtue of having proven themselves capable against top competition (even if they lost one of their big games) than an unbeaten who has yet to face any significant tests.

Put another way, we know Texas can beat good teams – we’ve seen them do it several times, even though they slipped up once. We know OU can. While Florida hasn’t played much top competition either, they’ve so consistently destroyed average teams (and, for that matter, above-average teams) that it seems pretty likely they can hold their own. Alabama, on the other hand, has had a lot of ugly close games against average teams and hasn’t yet played a great team to convince people they belong in that same discussion.

(I must say, it’s a bit of poetic justice that earlier this season many SEC fans thought an unbeaten Penn State team should get passed by one-loss teams, and now an unbeaten Alabama team is getting passed by one-loss teams, if only in the Blog Poll.)

by SpartanDan on Dec 2, 2008 1:02 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Even here in Big 10 country (I'm in Detroit)

the radio pundits are completely puzzled how Texas got jobbed like they did, going so far as to commend Mack Brown on an honorable lesson he is trying to teach by not voting for his won team to be #1 in the Coaches poll. While some still raise an eyebrow to his politicking, many feel that he embodies what a coach should truly be doing for the kids. Just so you know how other parts of the country are looking at this…

by UT92 on Dec 1, 2008 5:04 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, 92, for the info. Mack did take the high ground.

We can’t help it if there are more lowlanders around.

by whills on Dec 1, 2008 5:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So PB...

How do you rank them next week if FL creams Bama as expected? Do they jump UT & OU for number 1? And then Texas is #2? (leaving the B12 CCG out of the pic for a moment).

Does OU jump us after they wallop Mizzou (against my frantic begging otherwise)? How do you predict it to play out next week? What do you think it will look like? (and not just what do you hope it will look like!)

by Texas Sized BS on Dec 1, 2008 8:57 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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