FanPost

Looking into Billyzane's/54b's scenario a bit further

First time poster, long post... Because I was bored and PO'd yesterday, and because I have special place in my heart for mindless, potentially hopeless, speculation, I looked into what it would take for UT to keep its lead on Florida in the BCS assuming Gator and Sooner victories on Saturday.  As mentioned several times, it's unlikely, but far from impossible.  

First -- I'll preface this with a strong GO MIZZOU.  But, as people have mentioned, if it becomes clear early that OU is going to kill Mizzou, then Bobby Stoops -- go ahead and drop another 60 next weekend.  Also, assume Florida beats Bama, otherwise this is all moot.   

Computers:  

Right now, Florida is 6th (SIXTH!!) in the computers and UT is second, 0.12 (or an average of 3 spots after throwing out highs and lows) ahead of Florida.  I think it is reasonable to say, that, to the extent it is behind Alabama, UT will gain one spot and Florida will gain 2 spots in each computer should Florida beat Alabama.  UT can't gain ground in some of the polls, because they are already ahead of Alabama and behind teams they can't catch (OU and Tech).  Colley Matrix lets you plug in, and UT loses one and UF gains one there (but doesn't hurt UT cause it would have gotten thrown out anyway).  Based on those assumptions, UT gets 0.95 and Florida gets 0.89 next week in the computers.  If Florida goes above #4 in Sagarin which comes out early, we are probably dead.  If they stay #4 or below, game on.   But OU winning also helps our strength of schedule in the computers.  So I think this jump I'm giving Florida is generous...... on to the hard part.  

 Humans:  

If Florida kills Alabama, we have no shot.  If it's close, though, perhaps an ugly defensive battle on prime time TV (Harvin may not play remember!), then I think you'll see Alabama's #1 votes get spread across up to 6 teams due to regional biases -- Florida, UT, OU, Penn State, USC and even Utah.  I still think Florida gets the plurality of Bama's votes and OU gets most of the rest, but remember OU already has some votes.  

As mentioned, we need for OU and Florida to be weak #1 and #2, with some of the other 1 loss teams getting consideration at #1, even if minimal.  We need Texas to be a really strong #3.  If the games play out to potentially induce this scenario, Texas will need the expected bump up one spot in the Harris with Bama losing, and the hope that regional biases play into the redistribution of Bama's vote.  I assume we'll fall back behind Florida in the Coaches poll, but we have to stay at #3 - and well ahead of USC, Utah, Penn State, etc.  

 In other words -- if we are within some combination of 85 points of Florida in the Harris and 45 points of Florida in the Coaches, we have a shot.  We are currently 44 points behind in the Harris, so that looks dicey, and 11 points ahead in the Coaches' poll.  

Here is what I think kills us, though.  I think there will be a ton of ballots that do the following to make sure the above scenario doesn't happen:  

1.  UF/OU, 2. UF/OU, 3. USC, 4. Penn State, 5. Texas  

I still think we'll be number 3 in both polls, but this will weaken our #3.   We'll see, though -- Go Mizzou!!

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