Florida not passing Texas scenario is real

by silky51 on Dec 1, 2008 4:00 PM CST Comment 46 comments

BCS expert Jerry Palm very much recommends Rick Tellshow and his website as Rick is a BCS guru himself. The numbers have been cranked out and there is a much more possibility of Florida not passing Texas, even if they beat Bama, than what was first thought.

www.tellshowbcs.com

follow the link for the specifics, but bottom line is that Florida will need help from the voters to pass Texas. Florida's already high vote status in the Harris poll is putting a problematic cap on how many votes they can potentially gain as well. Also a blowout win by OU could really cap the number of #1 votes Florida could gain as well. Looks like Florida is going to have to gain 92 votes total from the two human polls at the very least to have a shot at passing Texas. There is hope my friends.

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Rivals.com

discusses this scenario. If this is what it takes for UT to get in to the NC game, I’m all for it. Yet, I would feel horrible for Florida.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/BCS-Realpolitik-Oklahoma-it-is-but-a-new-route?urn=ncaaf,125550

Steelers Roll Left!

by Drewmonsta on Dec 1, 2008 4:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Link fix

Full Link

by Wells on Dec 1, 2008 4:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hear that everyone?

BZ: not insane.

by billyzane on Dec 1, 2008 4:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

are you talking to the voices inside your head?...nt whills

by vy til i die on Dec 1, 2008 5:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I just replied to this comment

so that BZ would know that it was a real comment and he didn’t hallucinate it.

by Horn Brain on Dec 1, 2008 6:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Someone should tell them to hush about it

And, uh, instead talk about how OU will get screwed if they don’t get every #1 vote.

by TheElusiveShadow on Dec 1, 2008 4:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

your are exactly right...

I don’t want the mainstream media to let all the human voters know Florida needs 92 votes…..my goodness the human voters would intentionally bury texas in their votes!

by silky51 on Dec 1, 2008 4:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I just don't see this happening.

The voters aren’t going to watch Tim Tebow beat an undefeated Alabama time in front of a national audience and then vote them behind a Texas team that hasn’t played in a week and a half.

Go Tigers!

by the1austin on Dec 1, 2008 4:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

that's not the point

there’s a buffer of how many votes Florida can gain on Texas, especially if they barely beat Bama and OU rolls again next week and puts up 60….its at least worth something to keep in mind. And when the BCS experts start taking notice of this…….that’s our queue to pay attention

by silky51 on Dec 1, 2008 4:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If the voters give OU #1, Flordia #2, Texas #3

Then Texas goes due to the computers, so they don’t have to vote them behind Texas.

by Wells on Dec 1, 2008 4:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It depends how strong UF's #2 is and UT's #3 is

If UF’s #2 is a near split with OU and Bama, USC, Penn State or even Utah steal #3 votes from UT, that is bad. I HOPE we’d be a rock solid #3 if there are no upsets next week. If we aren’t, then that’s when you know people are gaming the system.

Hopefully we’ll maintain some of those votes that have us ahead of OU and UF, but I imagine most will go away if they both win, especially those with us ahead of UF.

by A-Tex Devil on Dec 1, 2008 4:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I was saying if every voter

voted as I said, 1, 2, 3 down the line.

by Wells on Dec 1, 2008 4:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So you're saying that the voters would have to move Texas down to 4?

In order to assure an OU/Florida MNC?

by the1austin on Dec 1, 2008 6:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If the Alabama game is close for Florida...

I don’t doubt that many voters would leave Alabama at #3 and drop the Horns to #4 as a result.

This is just not going to happen people. I know there is mathematical evidence that it can, but this scenario just will not happen.

"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin

by utlonghorn24 on Dec 1, 2008 9:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with 24...

I know we need to stay positive, but absent a Mizzou upset, I think we are set on the Fiesta.

by the1austin on Dec 1, 2008 10:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That woud be very bad

but just as bad would be all voters having Florida 1, OU 2, Texas 3.

by Wells on Dec 2, 2008 7:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Total agreement...

When a Top-5 program defeats the country’s #1 in the season’s final week, the victor becomes the new #1 on every human ballot.

You guys are grasping at straws.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Dec 1, 2008 11:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So your telling me there is a chance

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

by Wells on Dec 2, 2008 7:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

no doubt abou it

FL and OU win = FL v OU MNC.

I need an Andy Dufrain to Red speech about Hope…

by DaGoose on Dec 2, 2008 12:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

but by all means...

I hope the human voters make that assumption that Florida goes if they win. I’d love another crack at OU and Mr. Jerk Stoops

by silky51 on Dec 1, 2008 4:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I agree drewemonsta

The vids not working but i would feel bad for florida but very exided for texas

AUSTIN

by aos on Dec 1, 2008 4:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

so come Saturday we need to root for:

a. Florida win close and not blow out Bama.
b. Oklahoma lose to Mizzou
OR
b. Oklahoma win really big against Mizzou so they can snatch some more 1st place votes from the Gators.

by thebrat on Dec 1, 2008 4:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

And of course all this is moot if the humans vote a one loss Bama ahead of Texas

by thebrat on Dec 1, 2008 4:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

just made a post about this

Don’t forget Hawaii plays Cincy Saturday. In case anyone forgot, Hawaii played Florida and Cincy played OU. If Hawaii beats Cincy, Florida beats Bama, and OU beats Mizzou, Florida becomes the new #1 in the Colley Matrix. That’s how crazy this could be.

by BMG on Dec 1, 2008 5:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

if all that happened

this would be the highest ranking florida would recieve in the computer polls, and would be the one that gets thrown out for Florida.

by silky51 on Dec 1, 2008 5:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Still bad for Texas.

First – A Florida win (regardless of Cincy/Hawaii) will boost them in the computers. Lets assume this alone boosts them from a computer average 6 to a computer average 3 or 4.

Second – Currently the Colley Matrix is being computed in the Florida score, but the Billingsley is not. If the Colley goes to #1 with a Hawaii win, then the Billingsley score will be counted and it already likes Florida more compared to the other computers. Additionally, the Billingsley likes Bama (ranked them #1). So its not a reach to say that the Billingsley will almost certainly have Florida at #1 or #2 should it beat Bama. Whatever the score is, it will be counted in the calculation by virtue of the Colley Matrix #1 ranking being thrown out.

by BMG on Dec 1, 2008 5:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it would be awesome for OU and Texas to play

by Randyy on Dec 1, 2008 6:51 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

How much room is there, really, for voter manipulation?

If the goal is getting UF in the title game (which is different than keeping Texas out), it will be hard to manipulate, with a straight face, without the law of unintended consequences coming into play.

The problem is that the best way of manipulating in a plausible manner would be to use Alabama as a wedge against Texas — in other words, (1) UF, (2) OU, (3) Bama and (4) Texas.

But in doing so, isn’t there a threat that Bama would still be ranked high enough that they could still pass UF based on the computers?

by Hopkins Horn on Dec 1, 2008 7:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Not just Bama

People could use USC, Penn State and even Utah and Tech as a wedge and have an argument, however specious.

If Texas is anywhere below 3 or 4 on any ballot next week that voter should be banned :)

by A-Tex Devil on Dec 1, 2008 8:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If this somehow happens

then this might be a bigger farce than Texas being left out initially.

Everyone loves Florida, they are the sexy team and playing great (ironic they’d be screwed over since OU beat us since they were “hot” also). An SEC team left out given they’ve won the MNC the last two years?

I would be rooting for this even if I wasn’t a UT fan. This could be the nuclear bomb needed to eliminate the BCS (I wish). If OU and UT meet for the MNC… LMAO! Awesome on so many levels.

by goingforthecorner on Dec 1, 2008 7:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

If this happens

it would be a bigger farce than Texas being left out of the Big 12 CG. How plausible would it be if it turned out that way, that the human voters called for a recount?

by HornsFaninCalifornia on Dec 1, 2008 7:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The Colley Matrix

has a featue of adding future games. If you assume UF and OU victories and a Cincy win…its OU 1, UT 2 and UF 3. If you put in a Hawaii win then it’s UF, UT, OU….

http://www.colleyrankings.com/playgod.html

by jrod23mc on Dec 1, 2008 8:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wow, pathetic.

by goingforthecorner on Dec 1, 2008 9:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

interesting that....

UT jumps OU if hawaii pulls the upset…..I guess that would only matter if you’re rooting for Texas to still pass OU…..if they struggle to beat Mizzou.

Otherwise, go Cinci……if we want to pass up Florida.

by silky51 on Dec 1, 2008 9:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs