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Morning Coffee Talks Basketball

Bad Connor returns. Consternation has ruled amongst the Burnt Orange faithful after a handful of uninspired or flat-out awful performances from Connor Atchley this season. After a breakout season last year, Atchley was expected to at least sustain, if not surpass, those numbers. Not regress. His numbers are down across the board, from scoring to rebounding to field goal percentage. The Oregon game was the first time since March 3, 2007 against Kansas that Atchley did not score in a contest, despite playing 28 minutes against Oregon and only eight in the Kansas game. At least Atchley took nine rebounds and blocked two shots against Oregon--the only statistical categories in which he registered against Villanova were fouls (four) and turnovers (two) in 15 ineffective minutes. It could be that Atchley misses DJ Augustin as much as any Longhorn, as Augustin often got him open looks on pick-and-pop plays that haven't been there as often this season. Considering that the Longhorns are 18-0 in his career when he scores in double figures, Texas needs Atchley to re-discover his game. For a team relatively bereft of perimeter shooting (AJ Abrams has 59% of the team's three pointers), Atchley needs to be productive and efficient.

Star-divide

AJ steps up. There has been no question the last two games that AJ Abrams is the best player on the Longhorn roster. After tying his career high against UCLA with 31 points, Abrams scored a team-high 26 against Villanova, hitting a number of crucial shots, including a three-point play after getting fouled twice by the same player on a leaning jump shot. Unbelievable.

He's returned to his former duties of running off screens, which he probably does as well or better than anyone else in college basketball, forcing the other team, all five players, to exert a tremendous amount of mental and physical energy keeping track of him. And making them pay for nearly every lapse. It occurs to me that containing Abrams on offense is quite similar to breaking the full-court press of a team like Tennessee or Missouri for 40 minutes. It takes a mental and physical toll on players, forcing them to concentrate more than they are used to.

Perhaps most impressively, instead of always catching the ball off screens behind the three point line, Abrams was curling into the lane and hitting his mid-range shot, which is even more money than his long range shot when he is set. As a result, I think he should ditch his ineffective floater and pull up a little farther away from the basket and take jumpshots, which is a higher percentage shot for him.

Couple that with an effort to actually use a pump fake (I think he just lifted his eyebrows on one play to get Dante Cunningham to fly by) and he becomes an efficient offensive player. I've always thought AJ was reluctant to use the shot fake because he needs so little room to get his shot off that he doesn't have to use it to create space, it's almost always there. Whatever the reason, it's a huge relief to have an efficient Abrams, rather than the volume chucker seen in the Notre Dame game, while also totalling a season-high four assists. He hasn't had more than four since his sophomore year, but looking at his freshman numbers reveals much more of a playmaker than Longhorn fans have seen since then--he had five games of five assists and twice totalled eight dimes. It's there, but his banishment off the ball has significantly decreased those totals, as evidenced by his 111 assists his freshman year (only five less than the lead guard he supplanted, Daniel Gibson), followed by less than that number the next two years combined (52 and 55, respectively).

Feeding the post. One issue often raised about the Longhorns early in the season has been their inability to effectively and consistently feed the post. On one play against Villanova, Dexter Pittman found himself matched up against Scotty Reynolds, but his teammates failed to find him. After two early dunks by Sexy Dexy, Villanova fronted him in the post for most of the rest of the game. His teammates have been unable to find all season when fronted. When attempting to enter the post from the ideal 45 degree angle and facing a fronting defender, the other big needs to flash to the top of the circle to run some high-low action, as Pittman should be able to spin off the fronting defender and seal for an entry pass. This should be a point of emphasis every day in practice.

As an update, I mentioned after the Oregon game that Pittman was committing fouls at a rate of once every 3.3 minutes. The following two games against Rice and UCLA, Pittman only played a total of 19 minutes due to match ups, but did not commit a foul before fouling three times in 15 minutes against UCLA--once again back to his original foul rate. As it stands now, his foul rate has decreased to one every four minutes, a positive sign.

Fair warning to the rest of country. Every opposing coach lauds the Longhorn defense both before and after facing Texas. That defense was on full display at the Garden, where Texas forced Villanova into 38% shooting and 19 turnovers, prompting Rick Barnes to speculate that his current squad could turn into the best defensive team he's had at Texas, which is far from hyperbole. As good as they have been so far, Barnes says that they are just getting started, which means there is room for improvement.

The main area of focus is defensive positioning after dribble penetration. Truly great defensive teams make their mark by forcing their opponents to take difficult shots over defenders in the proper defensive position, stationary, with their arms straight in the air. Instead, the Longhorns recently have displayed a tendency to leave their feet on pump fakes, which leads to dribble penetration and then a tendency to reach and hack at players instead of moving their feet to get into position. As a superb defensive coach, Rick Barnes will no doubt make this another point of emphasis for his team and they should improve by the end of the year.

Something to watch for moving forward: How much will this team press? The Longhorns have shown more full-court pressure against the weaker teams on their schedule, but relied on half-court man-to-man against the more talented teams. I believe that Barnes is afraid more athletic, better ball-handling teams will break it the press and get too many easy baskets. Considering the half-court defense rarely gives up easy looks, it's a percentage play to ditch the press against most opponents.

This will be a phenomenal defensive team by the end of the season.

Another flaw? My exploration of the 'Horns' struggle at the foul lilne morphed into it's own post, but it might not be the only aspect of concern for this team. With only one high-volume three point shooter in AJ Abrams, the Longhorns rely extensively on him to make most of their long-range shots. Texas averages 5.8 three point makes on 15.5 attempts per game this season, 3.5 of those made trifectas every game coming from Abrams. Against Notre Dame, the Irish made three more triples than the Longhorns accounting for nine extra points in a one-point game. The Longhorns struggle to make up those points against good outside shooting teams.

Notre Dame is a perfect example of that discrepancy, having made 87 threes on the season, nearly twice as many as the Longhorns at almost 11 per game. That means that in an average game between Texas and Notre Dame, the Longhorns would have to make up about a 15-point difference in made three pointers. As another point of reference, the Tar Heels have made 65 threes this season, roughly two more than the Longhorns.

All this talk illustrates how important an appearance this season by J'Covan Brown could become. Despite the frustration engendered by his inability to become eligible for the first semester, Rick Barnes needs to take a serious look at working him into the fold when he becomes eligible for the spring semester. No redshirt year. Hopefully, Brown shows up in shape and ready to contribute to a team in serious need of another shooter.

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2008-2009

Would anybody be able to shed light on the question of why with so many returning players, the offensive stats seem worse than last year? I can understand the assists, ball rotation, feeding the post, etc. declining with the loss of a stellar PG, but why does free throw shooting decrease? Is this just early season jitters; has more practice time been devoted to defense; or am I missing something else here? Also, why is post play not looking great with the depth that we have? I think ball rotation has steadily improved throughout the season, but it seems the team should be focusing more on feeding the post.

by UTexasCPA on Dec 11, 2008 8:51 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A couple thoughts

In answer to your first question, it’s impossible to say for sure. Maybe Barnes hasn’t emphasized free throws enough. Maybe it’s fluke that will regress back to the mean. Also, you have to remember that we weren’t good last year either, and DJ was our second best shooter at the line.

As for your second question, while our front court has added depth, our back court still has the most experience. Our two most consistent scorers are Abrams and DamJam. Because of that depth up front, James is spending less time in the lane. Additionally, last year we were a team that thrived on transition and long-range shooting. This year, our guards are going to need time to adjust to a more traditional half-court offense. Hence our seeming inability to consistently get the ball to Dexter in the post. Also, much of our front court is largely inexperienced. Chapman still seems completely unsure of himself in the college game. Gary only has half a year of experience. Connor, well who really knows what’s up with Connor? I think we’ll definitely see our offense in the paint pick up considerably as the year goes on and everyone gets a handle on their responsibilities.

by Meekrob on Dec 11, 2008 10:03 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Chapman

If Chapman adds a little weight and works on some strength training, I think he will be able to provide a significant front court threat. I totally agree he looks unsure out there. Maybe some time hanging out with Gary would do him good. I also like the man defense we’re able to play this year. What are the chances of more press looks given the depth? With the personnel and continued development of team cohesion (passing, assists, etc.) this will be a nasty team by the time the dance rolls around. They are a fiesty looking bunch. Seems like the weaknesses right now are mostly basic things such as passing and free throws.

by UTexasCPA on Dec 11, 2008 10:52 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

3 pointers and FTs

3 pointers are worth 3 more points than no shot. However, if they shoot a 3 and we shoot a 2, that is one more point. We actually hit two more total shots than ND and 3 less 3 pointers giving us a one point advantage which they made up with two extra FTs. Anyway, our problem this season is 3 point volume and not so much percentage. So we’re not taking them as opposed to missing them. Presumably, this means we are going for two instead, which means a 1 point difference in the attempt. Also, two pointers are easier to hit. So on those shots where we trade 2 pointers for 3 pointers, we lose a point only if we’re hitting at the same percentage.

My biggest concern with lack of 3 point shooting would be that we’re not spreading the floor enough which makes it hard to get any type of shot. Also if your guards can’t shoot 3s than their defender can sag a bit to prevent dribble penetration. So to me the big question is, has our decrease in 3 point shots led to fewer good looks per possession?

I also wanted to comment on your FT post. I was thinking that one additional reason that poor FT shooting teams don’t make the final four is that it’s unusual for a team with that much talent to be so bad from the line. Don’t really know though.

Oh another thought, what’s our rate of 3 pointers? We’re playing such smothering defense. Are we getting fewer possessions a game and that makes up the difference? Maybe we’re shooting at the same rate although I highly doubt it without Augustin and Connor’s perimeter shooting being largely absent.

Good post as always

by bduran on Dec 11, 2008 9:48 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Poor FT% Teams

do make the final four. Memphis last year was aweful at the line, and they could’ve won the title. They made up for their poor shooting with defense, something this Texas team could do as well.

by aaronlybrand on Dec 11, 2008 12:40 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Check my post on foul shooting

Here. I try to address Memphis and look at the other Final Four teams in the last four years.

by GhostofBigRoy on Dec 11, 2008 1:34 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Other twos

Not all two point shots opportunities are comparable to threes. To be able to compare efficiency, you need to consider only jump shots and layups resulting from assists. Tip ins, followups to misses, and breakaway layups tend to inflate the two point percentage. You might also want to adjust for two point shots that draw fouls.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Dec 11, 2008 10:10 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bad Connor

Rebounding – Connor’s rebounding position on Tuesday night should be edited into a film of what NEVER to do in basketball if you want to grab a rebound. If he wasn’t under the basket waiting for the ball to drop through the net, he was trying to rebound off someone’s back. The only time he left his feet was to jump on someone’s back the rest of them time he was flat footed. I’m hoping a session in the film room fixes this.

Points in the Paint – Part of Connor’s bad offensive performance is due to some poor coaching. He’s settling way to much on 3 point shots. He needs to be in the lane and why he never got the ball once in the paint against a guard oriented team like ‘Nova is a mystery to me. And for the love of God, when Connor sets the screen and the defense switches leaving a MUCH shorter guard on him POST THE HELL UP. Everyone on TV, the arena, etc sees this, I’m not sure why our team is incapable of recognizing this.

by TempestHorn on Dec 11, 2008 11:05 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

because he can't

I don’t think I’ve ever seen Connor back a player down into the paint and score. The reason the coaches don’t have the team pass the ball back to Connor at the top of the key is because he is a turnover machine.

by aaronlybrand on Dec 11, 2008 12:42 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gaining and sustaining rebounding position

has never been a strong suit of Connor. I remember watching him early last year and being frustrated by the same thing. Part of the problem is that he doesn’t bend his knees and get low enough, but I think a lot of it is that he just isn’t strong enough in his lower body. As a result, he rebounds very poorly in and out of his area.

by GhostofBigRoy on Dec 11, 2008 1:37 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Reason for Bad Connor's Return

Connor misses DJ indirectly. The big reason for Connor’s angst has to do with Damion James staying almost exclusively on the wing. When DJ was running point, and AJ was running up and down the baseline, Connor had room to roam between the elbows and find open spots for 3-point looks. With Mason, James, and AJ moving around beyond the arc, the spacing just isn’t there for this right now for Connor to catch the 2nd or 3rd pass for an open look.

Right now, its clear that Rick is focusing on Damion and imploring him to get to the bucket from the wing. For whatever reason, Damion doesn’t look confident that he can get to the bucket against these defenders and he’s dribbling into no man’s land or pulling up for shots out of rhythm. Once Damion figures out how to get buckets in the flow of the offense, I think the dominos will start to fall for Mason and Connor.

I think it will take some time for Connor to settle into his role, especially since AJ and Damion in particular need to establish themselves in this offense.

by BMG on Dec 11, 2008 11:21 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bad Connor Returns and AJ's shooting against Notre Dame

It’s obvious to anyone who watches Longhorn basketball with any regularity that Connor is struggling right now. The question is why. Yes, DJ is probably part of the reason but I agree with BMG that a lot of the spacing woes are the result of trying to figure out how to fit in an offense that has changed from last year. He achieved comfort in the rotation last year that he hasn’t found this year. I’m confident they’ll work it out though since Barnes seems to be aware of it. The announcers for the Villanova game kept emphasizing that Barnes had said that Connor needed to have a good game for UT to be successful.

I caught something in the radio interview with AJ after the UCLA game. Craig Way asked AJ about Maui. During the Notre Dame game, AJ told Barnes that he ’wasn’t feeling it’ with his shot. Barnes told him that he needed to start feeling it pretty quick. Shooters shoot. Even when they’re not falling, every announcer and coach will tell you that the shooter needs to keep shooting. So don’t hold it against AJ that he had such a bad game.

by bballgrl on Dec 11, 2008 2:00 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

With AJ it's always been an issue of shot selection

And it’s a fine line between his hunting his shot (which Texas needs) and forcing shots (which drags down the offense). From everything that has happened since the Notre Dame game, it looks like Rick Barnes has Abrams reigned in a bit and he has hardly forced any shots at all. And he is going to have bad games because he has to operate at such a high level of efficiency while taking a lot of long range shots that the opposing defense is geared to stop. Where the Longhorns will get into trouble is if that one bad game turns into several weeks of bad games. But I don’t see that happening because AJ is too good of a shooter.

by GhostofBigRoy on Dec 11, 2008 2:05 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This Is A Team In Transition

Let’s face it there are some teams that Conner just doesn’t match up well against.His best qualities are his shooting touch and ball handling abilities.He has never been a banger and has trouble with the more quicker, physical players.He is very effective in breaking presses.

The announcers at the Villanova game seemed to think he rolled his ankle in the first half of the game.It was encouraging to see him return in the second half even though he was mostly ineffective.

It’s apparent right now that we don’t have a true point guard that looks to pass first and shoot later.Mason seems to be growing into the position so we have hope there.

Chapman missed too many chippies.Don’t know what his problem was.He is developing into a real asset in the post.

James seems to be more tentative in his role as a wingplayer but he is still money in crunch time.

Varez Ward has been a pleasant surprise he will be able to give the starters a break and not lose any intensity on defense.

Will Pittman be able to give us quality minutes in the post?If he can a trip far into the NCAAs is a distinct possibility.

Rick Barnes knows what buttons to push and will take this team deep into the playoffs but for now it’s a work in progress.

by TCB Orange Dino on Dec 12, 2008 7:03 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It is early in...

….the season and NO player deserves to be singled out in this manner. Peter, you ought to wipe this stuff off of the board.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Dec 12, 2008 10:39 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tap the brakes

There were no personal attacks

Perhaps the most recognizable mascot in sports, and certainly the toughest looking, Bevo is a fixture

by run Bevo run on Dec 12, 2008 2:03 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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