Texas Basketball Report, v 2.1
The Texas Basketball Report returns to its usual Friday in-season slot. As it happens, this may be all you get from me for a week; exams begin Monday and I spent all semester writing about football. Time for a sprint to the finish.
TEXAS AT-A-GLANCE
RECORD 7-1 (0-0) BRACKET TRAJECTORY #2 seed LAST WEEK 2-0 (68-64 vs UCLA; 67-58 at Nova--MSG) KENPOM NATL. RANK #8 national LONGHORN MVP AJ Abrams (31 points v. UCLA; 26 points, 4 AST, 0 TOs against Nova) OFF. EFFICIENCY (RANK) 108.0 (#63) NEXT WEEK Sat, 12/13 vs Texas St (3-4) / Tues, 12/16 vs Texas Southern (0-8) DEF. EFFICIENCY (RANK) 76.1 (#3) NATL. RANKINGS #6 AP / #6 Coaches / #15 RPI STRENGTH OF SCHED. Offense #15, Defense #155, Overal SOS #48
ONE STONE, MANY BIRDS.
Texas' second half offensive performance against Notre Dame was among the worst I've seen during Rick Barnes' decade in Austin. Given the Irish' offensive prowess, the defense wasn't all that bad, but the Longhorns with the basketball did not just struggle -- they were painful to watch, as AJ Abrams and Damion James took turns playing one-on-five junk ball. Only Notre Dame free throw woes and a too-late three point spree from Abrams kept the game within a possession to the end.
Living outside the local TV market, I hadn't seen all of Texas' early games, and though Wiggo kept telling me that the team looked promising in important ways, the egg the 'Horns laid in Maui against Notre Dame was ugly enough that I immediately began to reconsider my preseason optimism. Heading into this season, I was hopeful that Texas' depth, a significantly improved frontcourt, and another big step forward from Damion James would be enough to carry Texas to 20+ wins by March, at which point Balbay might be seasoned enough to give Texas critical minutes at point guard. In the wake of the Notre Dame loss, I found it hard not to wonder whether this team might have severe enough half-court offense problems that, at worst, it could wind up lost in dreaded bubble team territory or, even if it comfortably made the field, entered tournament play obviously too flawed to make a run to the Sweet 16 or beyond.
(Parenthetically, what a treat for Texas fans that Rick Barnes has raised the bar so high that my November worry was centered on whether or not the team is good enough to make the Sweet 16. I think my favorite current bit of hoops trivia is that Texas is one of three teams to have made the Sweet 16 in 5 of the last 7 years. The other two? Duke and Kansas.)
In the Maui third place game against Oregon, Texas impressively clamped down on the defensive end, but it was the changes Rick Barnes decided to make on the offensive end that have proven most significant. For starters, the post-ND film session must have been a shot selection scream festival, because Texas' followed up its 25 three point attempts against the Irish with just 6 against the Ducks. Critically, though, Barnes correctly diagnosed the shot selection as a symptom of an underlying illness. AJ Abrams was so poor as the on-ball guard for so much of the Notre Dame game that Barnes made an executive decision to change course. shifting Mason to primary point. He didn't have to: Not only is AJ is solid enough with his dribble that Barnes could have opted to try to coach him up to what Texas needs, but Balbay is nowhere close to ready and Mase's minutes spelling DJ at point last year were as often awkward as not.
Rick made the wise choice. Though most Longhorns fans before the season even began thought Abrams' own limitations as a point spelled trouble, the other huge problem I have with playing him on the ball is that you can't play him off of it. While Abrams takes a lot of heat from Texas fans (certainly from me) for the things he tries to do but shouldn't, he does have an incredibly useful skill set that can do wonders for the offense:
- Abrams is a mediocre-to-bad shooter off of the dribble but among the best catch-and-shoot kids I've ever seen. It's seriously sick how quickly and in one smooth motion he can catch the ball, make the requisite pivot, and manage to release the ball perfectly squared to the basket. If you haven't been to the gym in a while, have someone feed you passes and try to catch-pivot-release in one motion without fading off to the side. It's incredibly difficult.
- Because he has that particular skill, he's a nightmare to defend when he's off the ball. Though Abrams' hoops hero is fellow little man Allen Iverson, their games are night and day; the NBA legend who I like for AJ is former Pacers sharpshooter Reggie Miller. Abrams can't sniff Reggie's all-around game for many of the same reasons he's nothing like Iverson, but watching Abrams work the baseline sprint screens to get a catch-and-shoot jumper is a hell of a lot like what I used to love watching Miller do. AJ's man not only has to run a lot, but he has to hustle and truly concentrate to prevent Abrams from getting off a clean look. It's tiring just watching someone chase AJ for 35 minutes.
- Additionally, the team benefits enormously from Abrams when he's off the ball. Bigs frequently have to show over screens (or outright run at/with AJ) if Abrams' man doesn't make it through the picks (often two), giving Texas match up advantages and, most important -- floor spacing. When a team doesn't have an elite point guard making half court offense look easy, it has to balance the floor with proper spacing and/or take advantages of mismatches the opposition concedes in defense. At the very least, Abrams' shooting ability stretches the defense enough such that even if he's not finding open room to shoot, he's still providing for his teammates valuable space. Though he's been working through some issues of his own, Damion James' breakout season in my mind depended on Abrams being off ball where he could catch-and-shoot if open or, even if not, by his threat presence help create the kind of spacing Damion James could take advantage of.
There's more, but those are the most important reasons why -- even absent an obvious alternative -- Barnes was wise to get AJ off of the point. For his part, Abrams has with each successive game further bought into the concept, his tempo Tuesday night near-perfect as he played within his roles. The Longhorns do need Abrams scoring this year, but the upside of the team is apparent now that he's doing it from the wing.
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
All that talk about Abrams and not a word yet about the player who's providing the alternative energy -- Justin Mason. Frankly, I didn't see much in Mason's limited point guard opportunities last season to indicate he could be anything more than adequate in that role this year. But here we are, and though Mason's style is very much different from a classsic point guard, he's molded himself into a surprisingly effective one. The junior guard already sits at 41 assists to just 22 turnovers, a ratio only a smidge behind Augustin's last year.
Simply put, he's demonstrating over and over a very comfortable grasp of where the ball needs to be and how to get it there quickly. Easy as that sounds, it's remarkable how many obscenely skilled high school and college players never approach the potential those skills suggest because they're either disinterested or incapable of becoming basketball players, instead of just great athletes. Justin Mason is a good athlete, but it's the progress as a basketball player that's making his career at Texas an increasingly productive one.
Also important, Mason has demonstrated enormous improvement of body control when he's dribbling the ball. A year ago Mason often looked like he was playing on a slip n slide -- his crossover was as likely to break his own ankles as those of his defender. Whether he got better shoes or just worked hard at improving, Mason has far exceeded any and all expectations based on what he showed a year ago: Gone is the slip n slide act, replaced by a physically strong guard with a much improved quick first step, the combination of which has resulted in several highlight real slams.
Though Justin Mason is far from what anyone might call a prototypical point guard, if his current level of play is sustainable, Texas might well play their way into the 2-seed for which they currently project.
JUST GETTING STARTED
The post-ND improvement has been exceptionally important (and fun to watch), but the real treasure in this young season's storyline lies in the enormous amount of growth potential for this team. Texas is 7-1 (and should be 8-0), picking up this past week two seed-relevant victories against UCLA and Villanova. The coming week (Texas State and Texas Southern) provides useful cannon fodder for players and the team to progress before they head out on the road for two Big 10 teams in four days (Michigan State on 12/20 in Houston and at Wisconsin on 12/23). Both contests provide a big enough test that winning one of the two would be a success and victories in both would launch Texas into the #1-seed discussions which begin in earnest each January.
That would be fun, but seeding isn't especially important, outside situations like last year's opportunity to be the #1 seed in Houston. (And even then the short travel and Texas-friendly crowd did nothing to help Texas against a deeper, stronger, better Memphis team.) This past week the Longhorrns showed fans that it's far too soon to count out any goals as unattainable. The spacing, ball movement, and team passing say something good both about Rick Barnes and this particular group. Combining that with this year's team defense (the best I've seen from Rick, who's had some good ones) and the development we're likely to see between now and March, the Longhorns should launch into post-season play with a really interesting and impressive roster of contributors.
In next week's report, we'll take a look at each player on the roster -- where they stand right now and where they could realistically be by tournament time.
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Comments
Who woulda thunk
the Big XII North teams would once again pale in comparison to the Big XII South teams this season?
I guess any time Kansas has a down year we can expect this.
Texas '06.
by afrokinger on Dec 12, 2008 9:43 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Great write up, PB.
Couldn’t agree more about AJ’s performance against Nova. Splendid.
In looking at our roster, it is very apparent that Mason and AJ are the keys to this season. We have multiple copies (more or less) of every other player on the roster (James and Johnson, Chapman and Atchley, Ward and Balbay). AJ and Mase, however, are such unique talents and each in their own way provides so many opportunities for their teammates, i.e., AJ with spacing, Mase with distribution and defense.
I’m also hopeful that Varez Ward will turn into Mase 2.0, which could prove invaluable for what look to be very talented ’09 and ’10 teams.
by ctex80 on Dec 12, 2008 9:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I disagree with this comment
We have multiple copies (more or less) of every other player on the roster (James and Johnson, Chapman and Atchley, Ward and Balbay).
I think you and I are watching two different versions of the Texas Longhorn basketball team. It’s like saying, “Ball State is just like the Texas Longhorns (more or less) because they have the same record.”
Perhaps the most recognizable mascot in sports, and certainly the toughest looking, Bevo is a fixture
by run Bevo run on Dec 12, 2008 1:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's how I'm looking at it...
Chapman and Atchley: inside presence, shot blocking ability. If we’d seen good Connor this year, then this comparison would not be applicable.
James and Johnson: This one is a reach, but what we are essentially getting is athletic, rangy wing players who provide rebounding and our only true interior scoring threats.
Ward and Balbay: neither is getting much done on offense, both are providing hustle plays and solid D.
Obviously in all of these comparisons, one is better than the other. My point was that schematically, you can substitute one for the other, whereas, with AJ and Mason, we’ve got no one close.
by ctex80 on Dec 12, 2008 2:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I need to completely disagree
Chapman is a guy who lives in the paint. He wants to bang bodies and pull down boards. If he’s going to have any semblance of an offensive skill set, it’s going to be because he gets fed the ball deep in the post, or he’s putting back an offensive rebound. Atchley, on the other hand, is an amazing help defender. He’s not as strong on the glass, particularly on the offensive end, since he’s not really ever in the paint. On offense, he’s pure catch and shoot, which is why some BONers have speculated he misses DJ so much. With Mason at the point, teams aren’t forced to help D as much, so Connor hasn’t been open nearly as often. His other specialty is the sky hook, but he’s got almost no moves if fed the ball on the blocks.
Johnson and James are both athletic, rangy wing players, but to say they are copies is doing a gross insult to James. No offense to Johnson, who’s turning into a very nice player, but Damion James is a potential first-team All-American and first round draft pick right now. Johnson may very well be great, but for now, he’s a spectacular sixth man with a variety of nice offensive moves. Still, he’d much prefer to live 12 feet from the basket at most. James has got amazing range; he can square up from beyond the arc in a style reminiscent of Drew Gooden. Yet he can also beat you off the dribble, particularly at the top of the key. You also rarely see him getting the ball in the post, while Johnson will get a few touches there per game.
Ward and Balbay are both great defenders, but their offensive styles are completely different. Balbay is a pure passer. In fact, an apt comparison to me is Rajon Rondo’s freshman year. Due to quick feet and a ridiculous wingspan, Rondo was spectacular on D (he had about eleventy thousand steals), but was almost a zero on the offensive end. Teams played him close on the ball because he had absolutely no semblance of a shot. Yet he was still able to blow by defenders simply because he was so quick. Most of his FGs made were layups. I believe we’ll see the same from Balbay this year, although not with the same prowess. As mentioned here on BON as well, Ward’s hustle looks more like Justin Mason. He’s good at D as well, but where he’ll make his offensive game is creating his own shot and getting after loose balls in the paint. We can only hope he turns into as good a distributor as Mason is today.
In summary, I’m not buying the first two at all. Take Atchley and James out and replace them Chapman and Johnson, and I sincerely doubt this is a top 25 team. Ward and Balbay may be similar, but that’s more due to their function of backup point. Depending on game situations, you’ll see Rick substituting based on their strengths rather than their similarities.
by jc25 on Dec 12, 2008 2:57 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I recognize that
Atchley and James are far superior to Chapman and Johnson. And that there are differences between Balbay and Ward. But I don’t think that any of these guys are as crucial to the offense that Barnes is trying to run as are AJ and Mason. Look at it this way, jc25…
If you took out Atchley OR James, would we still be a top 25 team? I think we would, because we have bench players who can fill those roles (albeit to a limited extent). Not so with Mason or AJ. Remove Mason or Abrams, and the scheme changes dramatically. Without either player, we essentially resort to a junk 1on1 offense. No Mason=AJ throwing shit up all day, No AJ=Mase and Damo trying to take people 1on1.
That being said, it was a poor choice on my part to say that they are copies (although if you pro-rate the stats over 40 minutes, they get pretty damn close).
by ctex80 on Dec 12, 2008 3:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
I’d say Atchley, yes…I think he’s replaceable (to a certain extent) with Chappy and Lexi (although I’ll hold judgment til he returns), especially if he’s not going to be the offensive force he was last year. I’d actually like to see Barnes move him inside a little, and see whether or not Atchley can take smaller guys in the post, or at least hustle to the offensive glass like he did last year. As of now, it seems like the only opportunities Connor gets are catch and shoot threes that weren’t nearly as wide open as last year.
I’m still going no on James. He’s a nightmare matchup offensively; replace him with Johnson, and the drop-off is huge. The thing is, he brings a lot more “intangible” aspects to Texas than AJ or Mason. Obviously if you lose AJ, you lose any semblance of outside shooting; if you lose Mason, you lose any semblance of a coherent offensive direction. But it’s harder to qualify what you lose when you take James out. All I know is you lose a lot.
by jc25 on Dec 12, 2008 3:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
fair enough.
Maybe I don’t give Damo due credit. Maybe I’m just too high on Gary. Or maybe I’m just trying to hard to draw comparisons.
by ctex80 on Dec 12, 2008 3:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hoops Report
Projects us as a #7 seed? Even by all his numbers, at the very least we should be a 4 seed. But whatever.
by orangeblood1 on Dec 12, 2008 11:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
PB, good luck with finals
and I think you nailed why Abrams needs to play off the ball. Any further evidence can be gained by watching Steph Curry struggle like he did for most of the game against West Virginia the other night. I’m going to disagree with you about AJ shooting off the dribble, though. I would actually say that he shoots well off the dribble, as he made several mid-range shots against Villanova shooting off the dribble and hit most of the three-pointers at the end of the game against Notre Dame off the dribble as well. I thought Dickie V actually covered this pretty well, as he noticed that Abrams takes a hard set-up dribble get himself in rhythm to shoot. For my money, I agree that Abrams must be off the ball because it wears out his defender and puts mental strain on the other defenders, as I mentioned in my Morning Coffee yesterday. I don’t agree with people who say that AJ can’t be a playmaker for others, once again pointing back to Morning Coffee and some reasonably impressive assist numbers his freshman year playing with the ball.
by GhostofBigRoy on Dec 12, 2008 11:46 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
Honestly, I missed your paragraph on AJ. I guess when I went through the jump I skipped through it on accident.
On AJ:
- I wish I had video of every three point shot AJ’s shot in the five games I’ve watched this year (St Joe’s, ND, ORE, UCLA, NOVA). The difference between his three points shots off the dribble versus catch-and-shoot is maddeningly stark.
- With that said, we might be talking past each other here, because you seem both here and in your MC post to be referencing AJ pasing up on a three and dribbling to get a 15 footer or, if he keeps going, one of those little floaters in the lane. I’ll stand by what I wrote above—late game flurries be damned—clarifying that I’m talking about his three point attempts. AJ’s mid-range game is a whole separate can of worms. I think it’s both underrated (for the reasons you speak to) and a little overrated (not that he gets a ton of praise for it, but the kid would literally up his entire game by a full letter grade if he would just learn how to get to the line when he goes to the rim).
- AJ as playmaker: Sounds like we agree here. I think AJ has the skills to do the things point guards are supposed to do, but I wouldn’t take it very far. As a 2-guard he’s well above average in value; as a point guard I’d say he’s average or a touch on the wrong side.
--PB--
by Peter Bean on Dec 12, 2008 12:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Outstanding article, Peter, really good writing
Thinking back to before the Durant/Augustin run, it seems to me that Barnes’ offense did not really manifest itself until the start of conference play. It’s as if he used the nonconference schedule to get the defense set and then put together an offense to go with it over the holiday break. Till now, the rotation has pretty haphazard, as if he is trying out different combinations looking for the right one.
There are still many questions on offense, even with the point guard situation more less settled. How do we use Ward and Balbay? Will Pittman continue to start? Will good Connor ever reappear? Is Chapman going to be able to produce? Can Johnson and James play at the same time? Who do you play down the stretch, especially when you are trying to protect a lead?
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
by Caradoc on Dec 12, 2008 5:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs


























