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Harris Poll Unraveled

The Harris Interactive College Football Poll (sm) final results by voter were posted last week.  While our very own Mr. Brain and Mr. Zane provide us with outstanding statistical review of the BCS week-in/week-out, I thought it an interesting exercise to dive into the details of the fringe Harris Poll results.

I'm not sure what was more disappointing.  Learning who voted for whom or  actually viewing 114 consecutive individual rankings.  The emotional roller coaster of seeing each poll was often exciting but left me limping to the finish.  But all that was trumped at the end of viewing the voter's results because it mirrored exactly the events of waiting for the final BCS standings.  The last 3 voters listed alphabetically voted Texas 1...1..."5".   While the alphabetical listing is random, this symbolically represented all my letdown last weekend when learning of just how close we came to representing in the MNC.

 

Star-divide

We missed #2 in the final ballot by 84 stinking points.

"What a  Joke" Bullets:

  • A full two-thirds of the panel voted OU ahead of Texas.
  • Of those voting OU ahead of Texas, roughly two-thirds voted OU 2nd and a full 1/3 voted OU #1 (bastards).

Following is the distribution of votes by 1-6 ranking in final poll for the top 3 teams:

UT

UF

OU

Rank

Votes

Points

Votes

Points

Votes

Points

1

9

225

77

1925

26

650

2

33

792

27

648

51

1224

3

47

1081

7

161

33

759

4

16

352

0

0

3

66

5

6

126

2

42

0

0

6

2

40

0

0

0

0

2616

2776

2699

Note that UT received 20% of their points from 24 voters who ranked UT below 3rd.  UF and OU received only 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively, of their points below 3rd.

Following is the list of Harris pollsters who voted UT below #3.  Without the transparency of final regular season rankings by voters it is not possible to determine who changed their vote but surely this list is a good place to start and since we are not provided that detail, I submit these voters are the real vitriol of what is wrong with the system, at least this year.

Loser

Rank

Conference Affiliation*

Bill Arnsparger

6

SEC

Scott Johnson

6

PAC 10

Earle Bruce

5

BIG 10

Bobby Leach

5

SMU Pig

Lance McIlhenny

5

Big XII

Corky Simpson

5

PAC 10

Hugh Yoshida

5

WAC

Pat Richter

5

BIG 10

Bobby Aillet

4

SEC

Brentson Buckner

4

ACC

Chris Carlin

4

NA

Mike Grace

4

NA

Al Del Greco

4

SEC

Robert Jones

4

ACC

Roy Kramer

4

SEC

Jesse Kurtz

4

BIG XII

John Mallory

4

BIG EAST

Loren Matthews

4

NA

Mike McGee

4

ACC

Craig Morton

4

PAC 10

Denny O'Brien

4

ACC

Allen Pinkett

4

IND

Gene Ponti

4

SEC

Max Urick

4

Big XII

*Not Confirmed

 

 

.....and their bio's from yahoo.rivals.com:

Name

Resume

Bill Arnsparger

Florida athletic director 1986-92, LSU coach 1984-86

Scott Johnson

Fresno State athletic director 2001-05

Earle Bruce

Iowa State coach 1973-78, Ohio State coach 1979-78, Colorado State coach 1989-92

Bobby Leach

Former SMU player

Lance McIlhenny

Fomer SMU player

Corky Simpson

Former columnist, The Tucson (Ariz.) Citizen

Hugh Yoshida

Hawaii athletic director 1992-2002

Pat Richter

Wisconsin athletic director 1989-2004

Bobby Aillet

Former Louisiana Tech player

Brenston Buckner

Former Clemson player

Chris Carlin

Radio host, WFAN New York

Mike Grace

Founder of College Football Radio network

Al Del Greco

Radio broadcaster, WJOX Birmingham, Ala., Former Auburn player

Robert Jones

Former East Carolina player

Roy Kramer

SEC Commissioner, 1990-2002

Jesse Kurtz

Reporter, KKTV Colorado Springs

John Mallory

Former West Virginia player

Loren Matthews

Former ABCSports Senior Vice President

Mike McGee

Duke coach 1971-78, Cincinnati athletic director 1979-84, USC athletic director 1984-93

Craig Morton

Former Cal player

Denny O'Brien

Reporter on East Carolina for Bonesville.net

Allen Pinkett

Radio analyst, Notre Dame, Former Notre Dame player

Gene Ponti

Radio host, KMLB in Monroe, La.

Max Urick

Iowa State athletic director 1983-93, Kansas State athletic director 1993-2001

My motivation for evaluating the results was to answer the question of who caused us to miss the MNC in this poll.  Sure, this may be an exercise in futility, but for me, it is pure therapy.  I wanted to know who exactly to target my disappointment.  I want to put a bullseye right over his heart. 

Well, I found my guy.  Fellow Texan Lance McIlhenny.  I am just dumbfounded.  Even if you give the guy the benefit of the doubt because USC won their conference, how do you vote Alabama #4 over Texas?  I'm not sure of his thought process but clearly he represents the very worst in the BCS process.  Bias, bias, bias.  I am incredulous that this Highland Park, SMU alum, Pony Express Preppy would leave himself exposed in this fashion especially given his profession.

Following are highlights of his voting as pulled from pollspeak.com.  This is a great site for evaluating the final rankings by voters.  Included is a comparison of poll methodology.  They also offer a petition opportunity to promote poll transparency.

Freakish Behavior:

  • 25% of his top-25 selection at least near extreme ranking position.
  • He ranked Utah at its lowest ranking (10th) among all 114 Harris Interactive voters
  • Ahem.  He ranked Texas a distant 5th.

I remember those years watching Lance manage a vaunted offensive attack with Dickerson and James as supporting characters.  It was a great time to be a college football fan in Dallas.  Little did we know that behind the scenes there was a money-grab unseen in the history of CFB.   I often felt sorry for the SMU players until I read a comment today in a J. Brady McCollough piece. 

"It happened twice," McIlhenny says. "I succumbed to the pressure as well. If you're a sophomore in college, and you come in and you put your foot in your topsiders and there's two $100 bills in there, what do you do? You don't say, 'Somebody lost 200 bucks. Whose is this?' You just kind of go on down the road."

Right.  See ya down the road, Lance.

So, maybe I'm not surprised he would leave himself exposed.  I know one thing though.  I'm glad SMU got the death penalty.  I'm glad that Lance is the poster boy for the mighty SMU dynastic fall.  And I could not be more pleased that Lance represents for all of Horn nation a poster boy for UT missing a shot at the pinnacle the players earned on the field.

SMU_Pony_Express

Posers: Leach, Dickerson, McIlhenney, and James

While Lance has achieved much in his community and career, I can't help but nominate him as this year's inaugural Most Improbable Voter (MIP) award which should be handed out each year to the one BCS voter we feel is most deserving of our highest grievance and abject personal distaste.  It was a tough call that Lance receives my nomination over his college playmate Bobby Leach (who also voted Texas 5th), Bill Arnsparger, Scott Johnson, and Mike Leach but he gets the push over-the-top in my book (and Mike Leach gets an "insanity" pass).

It is a shame that he still represents the very best of Highland Park and North Dallas, and yet, the very worst.  Be sure to drop him an email with your feedback @ Lance.McIlhenny@staubach.com.  Or, you can send him a postcard, candy gram, or land shark at:

The Staubach Company

Lance McIlhenny

Vice President

15601 Dallas Parkway, ste 400

Addison, TX  7500

And if you wish to text or call him on the phone, please reach him here:

972-361-5217 (office)

214-763-4000 (mobile)

I am quite certain he will appreciate your comments.  Tsk tsk tsk...such a travesty.

All comments, FanPosts, and FanShots are the views of the reader-authors who create them.

4 recs | Comment 9 comments

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Good research

Interesting information, but what is the point of singling out one person to blame? We did not miss the MNC game because of the vote of one person. There were dozen in both human polls who did not think UT was in the top 2. Mack Brown did not even vote the Horns #1 himself. We scheduled an easy OOC slate and did not get the job done in Lubbock. The finger-pointing should be at ourselves.

"Only angry people win football games." --DKR

by OBdoc on Dec 15, 2008 8:05 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OB you are misguided here...

FL loses at home to an unranked Ole Miss team.

OU loses to UT by 10 on a neutral field.

UT loses to TT with one second left in a hostile environment…OU lost there last year too.

USC loses to an unranked Oregon St. team as a 41 point favorite.

Penn St. loses on the road to Iowa….IOWA!

Bama loses to #2 or #3 team in the country on a neutral site.

TT gets blown out by 40+ at Norman.

Analyzing these losses by the powers that have an actual shot at winning the national title, UT’s resume is far superior regarding best win and best loss. Only FL could argue they deserve to be there as well.

Blake Gideon aside, every other conference would have put UT in their respective championship game over OU. The finger is pointed at the Big XII. Their system sucks. Period.

by Mulliganville on Dec 15, 2008 3:08 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You don't have to convince me UT is #1

I agree with your analysis but obviously many voters in the human polls didn’t. Even Mack Brown didn’t rate UT #1. My point is that if UT had scheduled even slightly stronger OOC opponents and taken care of business in Lubbock, there would not be any doubt and we wouldn’t be analyzing every vote and looking for a voter to blame for our misery.

"Only angry people win football games." --DKR

by OBdoc on Dec 16, 2008 10:23 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How do you know that?

Did it help OU to schedule Washington? Or did Arkansas help us? For everyone who is making this argument, who would you want to schedule? Are you willing to give up a half a home game a year for it?
The answer can not be just schedule average BCS teams, because as Arkansas and Washington pointed out this year, they are no guarantee of a strong SOS.

by Wells on Dec 16, 2008 3:14 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Better OOC?...

A year ago, Arkansas beat #1 LSU and went on to play in the Cotton bowl.
2 years ago they went 10-2, and lost a close SEC championship game to UF, who won the NC.
3 and 4 years ago were very down years for them.

5 years ago, they beat us. And if I’m correct, this was scheduled 5 or 6 years ago (they played in the SEC champ game 6 years ago, also).

So how the hell are we supposed to know who’s going to be good 6 years out? If you go by those 6 years, there was a 66% chance they’d have a decent winning season.

And if you actually look at it, our average OOC was better than OUs. They may have played two decent schools, but they also played the worst D1 and worst D2 schools. And lets all be honest, TCU is not THAT good of a team. I don’t care where the computers put them (sagarin puts them AHEAD of Utah, who they lost to, btw). I pull for them and all the other Texas schools, but they barely beat freaking Colorado St, and I doubt they’d have finished better than 7 in the big 12 this year.

by UT_BKC on Dec 20, 2008 12:19 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

McIlhenney

Craig James actually took good friend McIlhenney to task about his qualifications to vote. James was generally talking about how the Harris was full of uninformed voters and mentioned that McIlhenney might watch one full game a week. James thinks using the Harris poll (with it’s current stable of voters) is a joke.

All of this is just my opinion. If I actually knew anything, I sure as hell wouldn't hang out on message boards.

by Berserker on Dec 22, 2008 8:21 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

UNREAL

THIS IS ONE OF THE MOST PITIFUL DISPLAYS OF WHINING I HAVE EVER SEEN. YOU AREN’T PLAYING IN THE NCG BECAUSE YOU ARE NOT THE BETTER TEAM FROM THE BIG XII. GET OVER IT AND MOVE ON. JEEZ

by OUenjoys the whining on Dec 25, 2008 6:09 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

um...

quick question..who makes up a SN for just one comment? And uh..we aren’t playing the NCG b/c voters were split on who the better team was and computers put your over us and we didn’t get to whoop up on Mizzou.

p.s. you can unlock the caps if you know how.

by vy til i die on Dec 25, 2008 10:43 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Special people

Those are the people who make a SN for one comment. The people who are specially educated in the resource rooms of the state that makes sure that Texas will never fall into the ocean by sucking so hard.

TEXAS FIGHT

by Darklust on Dec 26, 2008 3:20 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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