Morning Coffee Feels Screwed
Gary Danielson needs to stop talking. It's going to be hard for someone who gets paid to talk, but it's in the best interests of everyone. He should probably also stop eating paint chips. That's on his family and loved ones to help him out there. Danielson, infamous among Longhorn fans for saying that the Longhorns run a "junk offense," was apparently sad that the Schlabach/Danielson Delusional Club lost a charter member in Mark Schlabach, and is now completing his transition from "Wow, that's ill-informed," to "Stark, raving lunatic."
The target this time are spread offenses, which don't pass the Danielson muster, particularly Michigan, struggling in a transition year without the players to run Dick Rod's version of the spread:
I said in September that Michigan would be the last major program that goes to the spread.I'm sure it's always going to be there for the MAC schools and schools like Kansas and Purdue. But at the top of the food chain, I don't see why you'd risk it. Michigan has really painted itself into a corner.
Danielson goes on to claim that the transition for Michigan could be "cataclysmic" and that it could take five or six years to recover. Or until Rodriguez actually gets the skill position talent to succeed, which could be much sooner than Danielson opines. Generously acknowledged is the fact that the spread offense needs the right personnel to succeed. But then, what offense doesn't need the right personnel?
The author of the article, who now officially joins the Danielson Delusional Club, goes so far as it say that the spread may be dead before noting that there are still some success stories. No kidding? Brian Cook of MGoBlog (tip of the hat for the article link) looked at the 15 top offenses in the country, concluding that 12 of the 15 run some form of the spread. While teams like Purdue have had trouble staying ahead of opposing defenses, I would argue that their lack of success is more a problem of personnel--they haven't been able to recruit the overlooked talent from Texas after losing that pipeline when offensive coordinator Jim Cheney left.
With so many spread teams succeeding, it's ridiculous to use Michigan to claim that spread offenses are going the way of the wishbone. The cupboard was absolutely bare at Michigan after losing Chad Henne, Mike Hart, JJ Arrington and Mario Manningham. Besides, defenses still haven't been able to adjust enough to stop the spread, with all but the elite programs struggling to find enough fast players capable of tackling in space. When Mike Leach can no longer run the same five or so plays he's been using ever since he got to Texas Tech, then it will be time to declare the death of the spread. Danielson sounds old and out-of-touch with his repeated bashings of spread offenses after only watching SEC offenses and concluding that what he sees actually constitutes good offense trumped by better defense. And it all results in losing credibility by the second, the type of loss that suggests he's a few more comments from becoming another clown like Dave Lapham.
Selection committee insanity. ESPN's Brad Edwards sees a problem with the polls. I saw somewhere recently the suggestion that the BCS employ a selection committee similar to the one that college basketball uses, an idea which I like. Edwards accuses human voters of trying to serve as a selection committee, calling for more transparency by the pollsters, alleging that some dropped teams on ballots intentionally to help another, presumably referring to Texas moving ahead of Florida and Oklahoma.
The call for transparency is becoming more widespread, but it's nothing new that the pollsters are working as a selection committee. With human voters constituting two thirds of the final formula, voters became de facto selection committees with the creation of the BCS. The result is propaganda, like that coming from Texas partisans leading the "45-35" campaign, that will become more prevalent and may take nefarious forms, as I wrote last week, but also makes the season some ridiculous beauty pageant targeting people who may only see you play once or twice a year, with everyone trying to earn "style points." Add in the tangled web of coaching allegiances and their own inability to watch many games during the regular season and the whole thing looks worse by the second, a process started years ago. Oh yeah, and Harris poll voters who think that Penn State is still undefeated. What a mess.
Edwards is right to point out the possibilities for manipulation until transparency increases. That's only the first step, though, as the NCAA needs to seriously to consider creating a real selection committee without the biases that coaches possess and without the strange anonymity and unknown qualifications for Harris poll voters.
The two or three-team, one-division conundrum. Conference championship games are a boon to every conference that holds them. They generate money and attention, while ensuring that the final Pac 10 and Big 10 games occur in relative obscurity, sliding from the short attention span of voters. In cases like Alabama and Florida this season, they help settle the debate between two good teams from the same conference, help conclusively decide the champion.
The major issue, of course, is that divisional alignments within conferences mean that having two or three good teams in one divisions completely sends the system into disarray, particularly in the screwy Big 12, where head-to-head match ups don't count and a team gets left out that beat both of the teams in the championship game. The divisional alignment also relies on having consistently good teams evenly split between the two divisions, which clearly hasn't been the case in the Big 12 for years now.
Having two or three or four good teams in one division (like this year) makes the system dysfunctional, since it essentially can't handle more than one good team per divisions. That's why losing to OU is so costly--losing to OU means a slim chance of making the conference championship game, which might rematch OU/Texas were they in different divisions. One possibility is keeping schedules the same, but sending the two teams with the best conference records to the championship game. The other problem is the limit of two BCS bids per conference. Conferences that consistently underperform for multiple years in a row should lose their automatic bid if they aren't as good as a team from a conference that has three good teams stuck in one division.
Why I'm not confident as a Mizzou fan. Sam Bradford is going to absolutely shred the Missouri defense in Kansas City, even in the same weather conditions that Missouri lost in last week. You can bet that Kevin Wilson and his offensive coaches have noticed that sending receivers running up the sideline against Missouri's zone results in open receivers nearly every time. Bradford likely won't even need his lineman to hold repeatedly in an effort to give him more time.
Besides general ineptitude playing zone defense, Missouri also made some glaringly bad defensive decisions against Kansas. The first half brought consistent cornerback blitzes that failed to even bother the diminutive Reesing, while coming exclusively from the man who would otherwise be covering Dezmon Briscoe, one of the best receivers in the conference, leaving him open repeatedly. Followed later by zone blitzes dropping defensive tackle Ziggy Hood (listed at 6-4 and a generous 295 pounds) into coverage over the middle, including the final play of the game. Note to Missouri coaches: Dropping fat defensive tackles into coverage is not the solution to defending spread offenses. I'm not placing much confidence in Missouri staying competitive with Oklahoma because of their poor overall defense (92nd in total defense) and even worse pass defense (117th, worse than North Texas). Explain to me again why this team deserves to play for an automatic BCS bid more than Texas?
Slow transition for James. Despite improvements in his handle and summer workouts against Kevin Durant, Damion James is struggling somewhat in his full-time transition to the perimeter. While Jay Bilas rode James pretty hard throughout the Maui Invitational, saying that James isn't a perimeter shooter, the larger concern are James' turnovers. With 15 turnovers during the first six games, James is on pace for 75 during the regular season (30 games), 16 more than he had through 38 games last season. In terms of per game average, that means that James averaged 1.5 turnovers per game last season, a figure that has leapt by one full turnover per game this season, at 2.5 turnovers per game.
I don't know of any usage rate statistics for college basketball, but it's certain to be higher as Rick Barnes asks James to handle the ball more often and create more consistently off the dribble. From anecdotal evidence, the issues are two-fold, but related to the same thing. One, James is asked to handle the ball more in transition, where he has struggled with his decision-making, including several passes resulting in steals because he passed too early, failing to put pressure on the defender to make a decision on whom to guard in one-on-two situations. Two, also related to his decision-making, James has forced drives on occasion, dribbling into traffic and having the ball stolen.
As James continues to adjust to his new role, he will start making better decisions with the ball, which will also help his shot selection. On one ocassion against Rice, James posted up a smaller defender, something he needs to do several times a game. Against teams playing three guards, James is going to have a significant height advantage. Instead of completely abandoning his post-up moves, Rick Barnes should strategically send James down to the post to exploit mismatches, particularly when Connor Atchley is on the court to space the floor and force double teams to come from a distance. Think the inside/outside game of Carmello Anthony, the player James and virtually every other small forward on the planet should emulate. James will also have to learn when to take jump shots and when to continue to the basket, in other words, reading the defense and taking what is given. Expect James to improve significantly throughout the season, eventually becoming the matchup nightmare Rick Barnes envisioned when asking James to make the switch.
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43 comments
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Comments
New BCS Plan
Screw the human voters.
I know almost everyone likes to blame the computers, but as an engineer, I trust them to look at the whole picture better than anyone else.
I know I know, we lost because of the computers this time. Only we didn’t. We lost due to a dumb tie breaker rule that uses the BCS to determine something it was never meant to determine, and elevates one team out of three instead of eliminating one that has no chance. Change the rule to make more sense, we win, game over.
Now back to screwing the human voters. They don’t watch all the games, I doubt they pour over all the box scores, and they are influenced not only by their own emotions, but by those around them (or on TV). So screw em. Make every BCS school’s CS/Math department devise their own formula. Make the BCS 65 (+extra if you want to keep the non-school affiliated polls in) computer polls. Drop the top 10 and bottom 10, and you get the resolution that the computer polls currently are lacking, and an impartial ranking of teams.
Really thats what we want anyway right? Is for human voters to apply their logic consistently and comprehensively across the board? Computers do that, just have enough people providing the individual logic that they can be trusted on their own to be accurate.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Dec 2, 2008 10:14 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm in, on three conditions
1) Let them take margin of victory into account, to a degree. The more data they have available, the better. There may not be easy ways to do this and discourage running up the score (a hard cap at 21, say, would still allow teams to chuck it deep on the last play up 14), although I imagine there is some sophisticated way to do so if you’re given the data about the time of each scoring play. (Some might choose to ignore it anyway; Colley’s method does. A rather interesting computer ranking I’ve seen for college hockey – KRACH – could probably be adapted as well, though the relatively short season would make things difficult. That ignores MOV and home-field as well.)
2) Make them publish their methodology so people can look at it and verify that it’s reasonable.
3) Chuck out Billingsley.
by SpartanDan on Dec 2, 2008 11:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm down with number 3 especially
And the other two make sense as well. The problem is: These are the 6 most prominent computer ranking systems in the country, and Billingsley is already included. I don’t think that there is a need for 65 algorithms, nor do I think that you could get that many without including every hack with a copy of Excel. Some of them might even be worse than RB.
Scary thought.
by Horn Brain on Dec 2, 2008 11:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I always thought of 10 as arbitarily MOV-line with meaning
If you are two scores away, that should be worth more than if you are not.
Im fine with all your conditions.
HB – thats why you toss out the tops and bottoms. There should also be some sort of review process involved, maybe show that your system would provide a top 25 within some standard deviation of the final BCS rankings for all the previous years when that data is analyzed. I dunno, I’m the idea man, not the implementer!
by BoddickerIsClutch on Dec 2, 2008 11:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
10 is too small if you are going to give incremental credit for point. nt whills
by Horncasting on Dec 2, 2008 4:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I would do it in binary fashion, not incremental. No one will ask me to make a formula though.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Dec 2, 2008 4:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Gotcha
But still think it is too small. I think there is some value differential between beating a team by 10 compared to, say, 21. After 21 I’d say is when it trails off and should be capped.
by Horncasting on Dec 2, 2008 5:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Mine is more derived from tOSU in... uhh 2002?
Where they won half their games by less than a TD. 2 scores means you are in control, cant lose on a last second play.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Dec 2, 2008 5:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Domo Arigato
Before we turn things over to our robot masters to decide, we should admit that we still don’t know what it is that these formulas are trying to measure. Is it the team that is most skilled? The one with the best competitive record? The one playing at the highest level at the end of the year? The one that best represents excellence in the sport? Until you can say what you are measuring, the instrument does not matter. And until you can compare the output to an objectively “correct” result, you can’t say you have a valid result.
Computer rankings are just a systematic application of the same biases as you have with humans, but without the self-correcting process that occurs when humans look at their results. I dare say that not many of the humans that ranked OU above UT despite the head-to-head result were happy about doing that. They must have paused to question whether they really had it right, and though we might disagree with their eventual decision, we should at least give them credit for taking a closer look. Not so with the computer systems that blithely cranked out results based on their programmed formulas, oblivious as to whether the outcome made sense in the “real” world.
So I submit that it is only human voters that can resolve the ambiguity as to what they are voting for, can factor in the intangibles that separate the great from the good, and perform the introspection necessary to assure the outcome makes sense. After all, isn’t the ultimate goal to satisfy the community of fans that they got it right?
Therefore the question is not whether to use human voters, but which humans should get the vote. And this is why I (and maybe others) have suggested that a better approach is the use of a selection committee, the system that works so well in basketball. I have no doubt we can find a handful of unbiased experts whose commitment to the sport outweighs any partisan leanings.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
by Caradoc on Dec 2, 2008 12:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Garbage in =
garbage out.
Which human computer programmers do we choose? And which humans choose them?
Just use human polls to pick the top 8 (or 16) and then have a playoff like every other college football division. Sheesh, it ain’t rocket science.
May Colt be with you. Yeah, that's right.
by bfaut86 on Dec 2, 2008 3:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
it ain’t rocket science.
But it could be!
I trust the humans to put all the thought and effort into creating a meaningful logic to rank teams one time.
By using the human polls, you hope for them to do it every week, and not be influenced by the events of a season (or poor choices made in previous weeks). How much to the meaningless preseason polls affect the first polls? And how often does that translate to a team not able to break into the top, just because their preseason ranking was poor and everyone might be of the opinion that they are not good, even if unjustified?
If you trust humans to rank teams when it counts, I don’t understand not trusting then to make their logic into a repeatable formula.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Dec 2, 2008 3:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What happens when the computer polls become self-aware? nt
by Meekrob on Dec 2, 2008 4:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Then you have it play Tic-Tac-Toe with itself, works everytime.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Dec 2, 2008 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Sarah Connor terminates the programmer
proud to swim home
by learned hand on Dec 2, 2008 6:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Programmers/mathematicians can write an algorithm without bias. Can they consistently apply that algorithm without bias to their voting (without actually running the numbers and just using the printout)? I highly doubt it.
by SpartanDan on Dec 3, 2008 1:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
The algorithm generates the ranking.
Consistently applying it is as easy as consistently using a familiar excel spreadsheet. Dont change the formulas, and you dont change the bias.
Its when people take what they think to be special mitigating factors into account is when they lose their bias. “Yeah but OU crushed Tech!” or “Bama barely beat LSU”. If you want those things to matter, then quantify it and include it in the program, and it will be applied throughout all year. If not, then it should not be the case for the occasional ballot to make the voter feel better.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Dec 3, 2008 8:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
D'oh
Meant “Can voters consistently apply an algorithm without bias”. Which should make things clearer. (I’m totally with you on using computers rather than letting people who don’t have the time or perspective to thoroughly analyze things vote.)
by SpartanDan on Dec 3, 2008 10:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Conferences that consistently underperform for multiple years in a row should lose their automatic bid if they aren’t as good as a team from a conference that has three good teams stuck in one division.
Eh. I wouldn’t get my panties in a bunch about this. This past season was a high water mark for the Big 12, and even then I’d take Cincinnati over Texas Tech. I’ll grant that the Red Raiders could probably take the ACC champ. Still, as I said, this year was basically a fluke. I don’t think you could justify taking the auto-bid away from a conference with power programs like Miami and Florida State. Even the SEC, which theoretically has the depth to send 3 teams to BCS games, hasn’t tended to produce three teams that are actually deserving in a given year.
by andy_wooster on Dec 2, 2008 10:19 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Actually, it is possible for a conference to lose its auto-bid if they are ranked low enough consistently (though the earliest this could happen to any current BCS conference is 2014). Evaluations are based on a four-year span and factor in the highest-ranked team from the conference each year, the number of BCS top 25 teams, and the computer rankings of all teams in the conference.
by SpartanDan on Dec 2, 2008 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cincy would be wedged between Baylor and OSU in Big 12 South.
Tech would beat Cincy by 3 TD’s.
by Horncasting on Dec 2, 2008 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously.
I think Tech might beat Cincy by 6 TDs. UConn beat Cincy by 24pts with a rsFreshman making his first start. Cincy didn’t convert a single 3rd down (or 4th down making them 0-16 on 3rd & 4th down)! The Big East sucks. WVU (currently part of a 3-way tie for second) lost to Colorado! Another of those teams, Rutgers, has five losses! That’s the competition for second place.
by ajax77777 on Dec 2, 2008 9:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Mizzou zone blitzes...
… Ziggy Hood made a great play that resulted in an interception on zone blitz. However, he should be rushing the passer on the last drive of the game. Like you mentioned, that secondary is god awful and needs all the help it can get.
by Sweed4Heisman on Dec 2, 2008 11:05 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
particularly in the screwy Big 12, where head-to-head match ups don’t count and a team gets left out that beat both of the teams in the championship game.
Head-to-head does count. Everyone was 1-1. (And had it been Texas-Nebraska if the tiebreakers had come out differently, Tech would have beaten both teams in the championship game and gotten left out.)
When you’re trying to break a tie among three 11-1 teams who only lost to each other, the results aren’t going to be reasonable. There is no “reasonable”. As it happens, the Big XII tiebreakers aren’t the only ones that would give it to OU – after head-to-head, the Big East goes directly to the top team in the BCS standings. And the Big Ten and Pac-10 have clauses such that if there is a tie and one of the teams is in the top 2, they get the auto-bid regardless of anything else; if not for that clause, Texas would win under the Big Ten methods thanks to not playing any 1-AA teams and Tech would win under Pac-10 rules after OU, as the most recent auto-bid winner, is eliminated as a last-resort tiebreaker. Whatever method you pick is going to be somewhat arbitrary, and someone is going to get screwed by it. That’s the nature of the problem.
by SpartanDan on Dec 2, 2008 11:23 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
That's just what Mack said...
No matter who wins, someone good got left out. Stinks that it was us, and will just add to the legend of the Sooners and their damn land / BCS grabbing.
by notsofst on Dec 2, 2008 11:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
New Idea
A coworker (old guy, alum from UT) brought up what would happen back in the day in High School football in a situation like this. The coaches (or other representative) of the 3 teams would each flip a coin simultaneously until one of the coins ended up differently than the other two. That team would be the representative of the conference (or district in high school).
There is no reasonable way to decide the best team without using something other than in game results. At least this way, you know that everyone has a equal chance, and it isn’t decided by bias.
by cliffaudit on Dec 2, 2008 1:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice
How about Brown vs. Stoops vs. Leach in an epic winner-takes-all tournament of Paper-Rock-Scissors?
by SelimSivad on Dec 2, 2008 1:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Would never work
Stoops would throw rock, Leach would throw Saber, and Mack would defer. Nothing decided.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Dec 2, 2008 1:36 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Just so long
as everyone gets a trophy for being tri champions or whatever.
by cliffaudit on Dec 2, 2008 4:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't wait for the RRS next year....
…a better secondary, a better OL, bitterness for breakfast…hold onto your panties Big Game Bob…the Horns are looking to #@$&ing demolish you next year more than ever!
by KevinJ on Dec 2, 2008 11:33 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Mizzou secondary
Whichever OU receiver draws the Castine Bridges match-up is going for 200+.
by MeanMr.Mustard on Dec 2, 2008 11:54 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Bridges is out for the year.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Dec 2, 2008 12:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm.
My bad. That’s what I get for driving 10 hours during the MU/KU game.
My statement stands, however.
by MeanMr.Mustard on Dec 2, 2008 4:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ha...Dick Rod. That's almost as good as Meat Chicken! LOL
…and a not so subtle jab for Brian over at MGoBlog.
by TXStampede on Dec 2, 2008 12:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Gary Pinkel thinks OU beat Texas
Watching Missouri’s press conference today with Gary Pinkel. Pinkel was asked to compare OU and Mizzou’s teams. One thing he noted was the turnover margins within Big 12 play (OU = +14, MU = -1) and followed it by saying, “That’s why one team is undefeated and the other is 9-3.”
Gary Pinkel, head coach of Missouri, thinks OU is undefeated.
by Lincoln on Dec 2, 2008 12:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Danielson
I would advise anyone planning on watching the SEC Championship Game at home to make sure before the game that there aren’t any objects near the TV which you’ll be tempted to throw into it.
Because, if Florida looks like it’s on its way to victory, expect Danielson, presumably aware of the chance that Florida might not catch Texas, to go on a completely obnoxious full-court press on behalf of the Gators, disparaging the Horns and their “junk offense” every which way possible. He did a similar thing to Michigan two years ago during the SEC Championship Game, and there’s no doubt in my mind that he won’t offer up a repeat performance this year.
by Hopkins Horn on Dec 2, 2008 12:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
What's funny
Is that I was talking to my brother (a UF alum) over Thanksgiving about Danielson, and he claims that Danielson hates the Gators (probably because of their own “junk” offense.) He’d stick up for the SEC above all else, sure, but he’ll probably be rooting for the more traditional Alabama to win.
by Meekrob on Dec 2, 2008 1:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Danielson the Great
Let’s see, Danielson – All Pro QB for the …, No, wait a minute, Danielson was a lowlife scrub for the Hapless Detroit Lions. Yeah, he’s got a lot of credibility. They ought to call him Tipper – obviously he’s downing a few too many drinks these days.
by HalfmileHorn on Dec 2, 2008 4:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Someone's abilities as an analyst
are not proportionally related to his abilities on the field.
by BrooklynHorn on Dec 2, 2008 5:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
additional thought on Danielson
This may seem unusually childish for a man my age (hell, me & that scrub, athletically and analyitically, may be the same age. But I’m going to go ahead & take the plunge: Gary Danielson, I would like to extend the invitation for you to go & have sex with yourself.
There, I did it, done.
by HalfmileHorn on Dec 2, 2008 8:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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