Taking the speculation out of BCS computer rankings?

by boonies on Dec 2, 2008 9:55 PM CST Comment 9 comments

I keep hearing different projections about what the computers will think if Florida beats Alabama and whether or not they will get enough love from the geeks to jump Texas or not. We heard similar speculations about whether an OU victory over OSU would give them enough of a boost to stay ahead of Texas even if the human voters come to their senses.

My question is why can't the geeks run some scenarios on different outcomes and put an end to all the speculation? These are all computer models right, so they should be able to plug in some likely scenarios (Florida wins by a narrow margin, Florida wins by a huge margin, etc.) and see what happens, right? I could understand this being difficult on normal college football weekends since they take into consideration all match-ups played in the nation (still possibly though, I think), but this should be especially easy on the last weekend when we only have conference championship games being played and no movement amongst the other college football teams.

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Don't want it

The voters would find out exactly how far ahead of UT they need to rank Florida to avoid us getting to the CG. I can tell you within about .02 computer rank points that Florida will be behind us by one full computer ranking if they beat ‘Bama. I did that just by comparing strength of schedule and stuff. Other people could narrow it down by looking at the point totals of each team in each poll, but there’s your rough guess. I think it could actually even be better for us than that. I think that Florida over Texas is going to be a lot closer than everyone thinks.

by Horn Brain on Dec 2, 2008 10:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

If what you say is right about the computers, wouldn’t a shift in the human vote along with the computer boost put Florida over Texas? Given how the voters have such a short memory and react to things week-to-week, I’m sure a win over Alabama will confirm that Florida is the best SEC team and shouldn’t be penalized anymore for the poor season that many of the teams in its conference are having.

Plus, how likely are voters going to want a situation in which two Big 12 teams play for the national championship? I’ve heard crap all season about analysts dogging the Big 12 teams for lacking good defenses and putting up great offensive numbers but not being able to really compete with other teams.

As cool as it would be to see a rematch of OU and Texas (and I actually think that’s the right match-up if you want to see the two best teams in college football right now), I’ve seen enough from human voters over the past couple of weeks to try and influence the outcomes according to their biases.

by boonies on Dec 2, 2008 11:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It would have to be a pretty substantial shift.

If we’re at all muddled up with OU and Florida in the top three, I think we’ll be in. If OU and Florida are a clear human #1 and #2, then we’re out. Simple as that.

by Horn Brain on Dec 3, 2008 1:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

WINNING

i HEARD THE BCS = BEVO COMMITS SUICIDE.
AND I JUST SAW ON THE NEWS HE TRIED TO STICK HIS LONGHORN UP HIS BUTT AND BROKE HIS NECK. IS THIS TRUE?

by erinm on Dec 3, 2008 1:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

WINNING

BECAUSE ON MY RANCH THAT HAPPENED AND WE HAD TO CUT UP THE POOR LONGHORN AND EAT HIM

by erinm on Dec 3, 2008 2:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

You took the time to create an account

Just to post that dribble? I hope you were drunk.

And as a recap, the Caps Lock key will take care of your issue.

by Wells on Dec 3, 2008 7:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure

there’s something written into the rules here that prohibits this, for the reasons described above.

if there isn’t, there really should be.

by lolwaihallothar on Dec 3, 2008 2:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Florida needs..

now this is assuming Florida, Oklahoma win, as well as Cincinnati beats Hawaii this weekend……Florida needs to gain 92 votes on Texas between the two human polls to get it done……will be tough hill to climb for them in the harris poll since they are already ahead of Texas by a good margin….i.e. they have a cap of how many votes they can gain on Texas in the Harris poll.

see www.tellshowbcs.com

by silky51 on Dec 3, 2008 7:17 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Bad news will continue

I fully expect voters to become aware of this situation. To “solve” it, the voters will rank Florida #1 and Texas behind Tech, Bama, Penn State, and USC. Tech will move up to #4 in the BCS while Texas falls to #5. Tech will get the BCS auto bid and Texas will be playing in the Cotton Bowl. I know this is a once in a billions years scenario, but with the way votes have gone the past few weeks and the frustration we have had to endure, nothing would shock me.

by JohnsonUT on Dec 3, 2008 8:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs