Texas Travels To Madison Looking For 10th Win
by Peter Bean on Dec 23, 2008 1:53 AM CST
in Basketball
13 comments
Rick Barnes takes his 5th-ranked Longhorns (9-2) on the road to Wisconsin (9-2) for the team's second straight challenge against a Big 10 opponent. Texas dropped a semi-home game (Toyota Center, Houston) on Saturday to Michigan State, despite leading for most of the game. When it came to crunch time, however, Texas went to the Stand Around And Dribble half court offense, while Michigan State stole the win on a nice drive and dish from Morgan to Summers: Three points. Ball game.
WISCONSIN IN 2008
The Badgers are 9-2 against a pretty soft schedule -- their resume including two decent Top 100 wins over UW-Green Bay in Madison and at Virginia Tech, along with seven victories against certifiable snack cakes. Against the two tourney-caliber teams on their schedule, the Badgers lost big to UCONN (76-57) and narrowly at Marquette (61-58).
In those two contests against tough competition, the Badgers suffered from an inability to take care of the ball on offense and secure rebounds on defense. The Longhorns have excelled in both of those areas thus far this year, securing 38.5% of their own misses (43rd nationally) and turning over their opponents on 24% of possessions (56th nationally).
WISCONSIN'S ADVANCED STATISTICS
A look at Wisconsin's rate stats courtesy of KenPom's metrics:
Raw Tempo: 60.7 poss/40 min National Rank=333
Adj Tempo: 60.4 poss/40 min National Rank=338
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 108.9 ( 64) 95.2 (100)
Adj Efficiency : 111.0 ( 44) 94.3 ( 84)
Effective FG% : 51.9 ( 81) 48.3 (151)
Turnover Pct. : 18.6 ( 56) 19.2 (259)
Off. Rebound% : 34.0 (149) 24.2 ( 4)
Free Throw Rate: 28.4 ( 80) 26.8 ( 27)
3-Point FG% : 37.2 ( 77) 35.8 (234)
2-Point FG% : 49.7 (110) 45.8 (113)
Free Throw Pct.: 69.2 (135) 69.8 (222)
Block Pct. : 6.7 ( 73) 10.4 ( 98)
Steal Pct. : 7.7 ( 27) 7.5 (304)
3PA/FGA : 35.5 (104) 31.1 (105)
A/FGM : 52.8 (202) 52.5 (125)
A/FGM : 52.8 (202) 52.5 (125)
Interestingly, the Badgers have been so good securing defensive rebounds against their inferior opponents that they rank 4th nationally in one-and-done defensive rebounding, yet both Marquette (35.7 OR%) and Connecticut (40.4%) hurt the Badgers badly on the glass. And the only other comparably athletic team on their schedule -- Virginia Tech -- also cleared over 40% of its own misses. The Badgers' strong defensive rebounding numbers are a result of them beating up on much smaller, weaker squads.
Looking at the numbers, Wisconsin doesn't do much exceptionally well, unless you count slowing the game down to a crawl a positive, in which case Wisconsin is King. The Badgers are the sixth slowest team in basketball in terms of tempo, averaging a meager 60 possessions per 40 minutes of basketball. Bo Ryan is nothing, if not deliberate.
KEYS TO THE GAME
- Defensive Discipline. The Badgers will patiently run Bo Ryan's motion sets for all 35 seconds of the shot clock, working the ball inside-out and around the horn until they get a clean look. The Badgers aren't a good slashing/creating offensive club, but they can hit open shots if they're available. If Texas lets Marcus Landry and/or Trevon Hughes gun open threes, we'll find ourselves in trouble.
- Keep a body on Jon Leuer. Wisconsin has an emerging force on their hands in 6-11 sophomore Jon Leuer. He's a natural basketball player with good hands, excellent footwork, and a soft touch around the rim. If Texas' forwards aren't sharp about getting a body on him, he's the kind of player who will quietly put up 17 and 10 in 25 minutes.
- Run the inside-out sets in the halfcourt offense. The dribble-dribble-runner offense is precisely what Bo Ryan would like for Texas to run Tuesday night. Texas needs to make Wisconsin's average interior defense show that they can handle Texas in the paint. Wisconsin has no one who should be able to handle Sexy Dex; Rick needs to exploit that mismatch and make the Badgers commit two defenders to Texas' hefty center. If they don't, he'll have the match up to score.
- Crash the glass. Texas has at times paid a price for being over-aggressive on offensive rebounding this year, but Wisconsin is so deliberate and halfcourt-oriented that there's not much risk of getting burned on transition buckets. I wouldn't mind seeing Texas take an aggressive approach to offensive rebounding in this one.
- Finish. Simple as it sounds, the difference between Texas' 9-2 record and the 11-0 they probably should be are a few simple finishes. This team needs to finish lay ups. Finish halves. Finish free throws.... Everything up one half notch and this is a team that can beat just about anyone on a given night. Let's pick up an important road win Tuesday night.
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5. Finish
That is the important one. As good as we looked at times during the Mich State game we looked lost in the last 5 minutes. Absolutely lost.
I would say we should be 11-1 as I don’t think we could’ve handle Psycho T and his crew in Maui.
by jimmer on Dec 23, 2008 9:31 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Couple thoughts
1. Bo Ryan recruits bigs who can play on the perimeter and guards who can work in the post. It puts a lot of pressure on guards to play one-on-one post defense, with little help from the defensive bigs. AJ Abrams could find himself with his hands full if Trevon Hughes takes him onto the block consistently. Rick Barnes will likely put Mason on Hughes and ask Abrams to shadow Jason Bohanon, Wisconsin’s best three-point shooter. Typically, the Wisconsin bigs can shoot the three-ball (think Brian Butch or Dan Wilkinson), but it looks like Leuer is the only real threat of the bigs from the perimeter and he doesn’t shoot in volume (one make on two attempts per game). In the past, I would have said that this isn’t a game for Pittman, as susceptible as he is to mobile bigs who can take advantage of his size by setting screens or taking him off the bounce, but I don’t think that will be as much of an issue this year as it might have been in the past. Bo Ryan’s relative inability the last several years to find those type of mobile, long-range bombing bigs has left his program short of where he would like it to be.
3. After the abject offensive disaster that was the end of the game against MSU, how the Longhorns react offensively in the early going will be telling about what Rick Barnes said to his team in the two days since the loss. I’m not sure if Wisconsin has a perimeter defender capable of slowing Abrams the way Walton did, and it looks like Wisconsin isn’t a lock-down defensive squad like they have been in the past. Those two factors may lead to a lack of evolution in the offensive game.
4. Does Rick Barnes go small with three guards for ball handling, or does it he play two guards with DJ or GJ at the three? Either way, it will be interesting to see if we see Justin Mason crashing the boards this game, which may be what he needs to jump shot his offensive game.
5. Who has the ball at the end of the game? Is it Mason initiating the offense, pounding the rock as Abrams runs off of screens? Or does Abrams handle the ball and try to create for himself and others?
by GhostofBigRoy on Dec 23, 2008 11:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Hughes
Isn’t a big guy. He’s generously listed at 6-0, so I don’t know that he’ll be taking AJ down to the post much. I’ve only seen Wiscy play once, though, and I don’t remember much from it, so I guess we’ll see.
Good question on who has the ball at the end of the halves/games. This hasn’t been Rick’s forte over the years. Even with Augustin, the plan was dribble, dribble, wait, crap.
--PB--
by Peter Bean on Dec 23, 2008 11:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Here is a look at what Wisconsin runs
1 is often a player like Hughes, since I don’t think they post Bohanon much, if at all. Link
by GhostofBigRoy on Dec 23, 2008 11:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Right
I’m sure we’ll see the same offense we always have from Bo Ryan, and you may be right – sticking AJ on Bohanan might be the more manageable task. But I think he’s quick enough to handle Hughes, I don’t recall Hughes doing too much of his scoring near the rim, and when Bohanan goes out, his replacement that I remember was a much taller off guard with a nice stroke. Looking at their roster, I’m probably thinking of Jarmusz, and I definitely don’t want him getting off uncontested threes over miniature AJ.
Generally speaking, Texas really needs to do a good job defending the three. If we can keep Wisconsin from getting clean perimeter looks, I think we match up nicely for a road win here. Would be nice.
--PB--
by Peter Bean on Dec 23, 2008 12:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, there was no question with KD.
Otherwise, you’re right. The only other exception was for the BMW machine (Penders vintage) when whoever was hot was going to be it – and you could tell which one because they would have already scored 25+.
You and GoBR are giving me shivers about this team. It’s not just Connor who is so schizo…
by whills on Dec 23, 2008 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Here is another look at the Wisconsin offense
That describes in a little more detail their offensive strategy, which is designed to isolate defenders and force them to play through screens with little weakside help, a result of the four-out-one-in nature of the offense. Link
by GhostofBigRoy on Dec 23, 2008 11:40 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
is there going to be a justin.tv link to watch this game? Out of the country so I want to watch….
by MJY6087 on Dec 23, 2008 2:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Prediction: Texas 9-3 After Tonight
There’s no doubt in my mind that Texas will lose tonight. I wish it weren’t the case. But even with four returning starters this team lacks leadership, self-confidence, play-making ability and discipline. As I posted after the Notre Dame loss nobody has stepped up into a leadership roll like UT’s been blessed to have in prior seasons. Not one of these kids has raised his hand to be that leader. The ones in that roll (intentionally plural) are there because they were asked to be leaders, none of them appear to have volunteered willingly.
Unless and until that key position is filled and then it’s holder gains the confidence to improve the 2008-09 Longhorns are a second round exit team. After Notre Dame I still thought they had a 4-5 seed in them just based on their talent and experience. Now, after Michigan State I see only a 6-7 seed coming out of them, and they probably will finish #3 or #4 in the Big XII.
This team has no heart, no soul, and while they’re searching for them they’re lost at sea. That doesn’t mean they don’t have some good wins like the one against UCLA in them. Those wins will be the exception, not the rule, though.
In my last post some replies were calling me too quick to give up on them, and too easily discouraged by a 1-point loss. It wasn’t the closeness of the loss (UT was outclassed by more than 1-point in the ND game, despite the scoreboard). It was how completely out of synch they’ve played during the year. Watching them play it is purely chaotic. Not even controlled chaos. They clearly have the talent to be better. There’s no way they have as much experience as they have from the prior two successful seasons and are worse for it. It all starts with leadership on the floor, and it is simply non-existent this year. Their talent and experience will get them some good wins, despite the chaos of no leadership. But it won’t be enough to beat the Badgers. It won’t be enough to win the Big XII. And it won’t be enough to get deeper than the round of 32 in March.
Who on the squad will prove me wrong? And when?
by RMHorn on Dec 23, 2008 3:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
while i agree with you on some points..its still very early in the season. you look at OU who has blake griffin and STILL is beating mediocre unranked teams by a few points. I think D. James or Abrams is gonna step up and we will have a fine team.
by MJY6087 on Dec 23, 2008 5:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
anyone have a link to live stream?
by Displaced Longhorn on Dec 23, 2008 7:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
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