Five star recruits, overhyped?

by thebrat on Dec 26, 2008 10:35 AM CST Comment 9 comments

After the whole Jamarkus Mcfarland debacle, it got me thinking as to how a player's recruit rating transfers to success at the college level.

I decided to look at all the recruits that we have signed in the past few years and try gauge what they should level they should have been playing and comparing that to actual results. Let me say, I was surprised. Heres a quick glance at my results:

Class of 2004(notable names):

Brian Orakpo: 4 stars: we all know how good he turned out although it took him 3 years to show us his potential. Future NFL draft pick.

Frank Okam: 5 stars: NFL pick, played really well at Texas. Recruit rating and college success match.

Class of 2005:

Jermichael Finley, Jamaal Charles, Quan Cosby: Excelled on the college level. 4 stars. 2 are in the NFL now.

Colt Mccoy: 3 stars: looking at his performance from the last 3 years, he deserved much more than a 3 star rating.

Roddrick Muckelroy: 3 stars: Probably our best true LB(I don't consider Sergio Kindle as a LB) this year.

Class of 2006:

Eddie Jones/Sergio Kindle: Both 5 star recruits, although I don't think their success as of date relates to their recruit rating. Sergio was MIA until this year, and Eddie Jones is on the bench.

Class of 2007:

Tray Allen/Curtis Brown: 5 stars: still have not seen much of either of them as they come off the bench most of the time. We've seen flashes though.

Earl Thomas/Blaine Irby/Malcolm Williams: 4 stars: These three have shown us a lot more than the above two.

Class of 2008:

Blake Gideon(steal of the last decade): 2 stars: Just our second 2 star recruit in the last 4 years(the other being Tyrell Higgins(DT), who I have never heard of), this guy has a lot of potential and has proved a lot more on the field than a few other 5 star recruits.

Conclusion: From a Texas perspective, it seems to me that five star recruits are just as good as four star ones. With the exception of Vince Young and Okam, I do not think there is any 5 star recruit out there that we signed in the past 4 years, that deserves the amount of hype they got at the time of their recruitment. It seems to me that 4 star recruits and 3 star ones do just as well.

That being said, here a big thank you to all the non-5 star recruits that signed with us this year.

Tariq Allen	LB	6-2	231	4.63	5.8	Irving, TX
Thomas Ashcraft	OL	6-5	300	-	5.9	Cedar Hill, TX
Eryon Barnett	DB	6-3	193	4.44	5.8	Euless, TX
Marcus Davis	DB	6-0	192	4.47	5.9	League City, TX

Trey Graham	TE	6-5	230	4.62	5.7	Waco, TX
Calvin Howell	DT	6-4	280	4.9	5.9	San Antonio, TX
Derek Johnson	DT	6-3	290	5	5.8	Hoxie, AR
Dominique Jones	DE	6-3	230	4.7	5.6	Kilgore, TX
Paden Kelley	OL	6-7	270	5.1	5.8	Austin, TX
Kyle Kriegel	DE	6-5	235	4.8	5.5	Elysian Fields, TX
Barrett Matthews	TE	6-2	220	-	5.8	Galena Park, TX
Patrick Nkwopara	LB	5-11	210	4.54	5.5	Grand Prairie, TX

Garrett Porter	OL	6-6	308	5.2	6.0	Odessa, TX
Greg Timmons	WR	6-2	191	-	5.9	Aldine, TX
Kenny Vaccaro	DB	6-1	197	-	5.8	Brownwood, TX
Mason Walters	OL	6-6	290	5	6.0	Wolfforth, TX
Chris Whaley	ATH

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Comments

Someone did a study on this

I can’t remember who it was (SMQ?) but I’m sure someone with a better memory will post the link. It basically said that over a large sample that there is a strong correlation between prospect rating and success at the college level. Of course you can point to a ton of examples of 5 star busts and 3 star All-Americans, but in general, a higher rating is a strong indicator of future success.

When they gain the ability to measure heart and persistence, that is when the Colt McCoys of the world will get 5 stars and the Ryan Perillouxs will get 3.

Vince Young had gobs of talent, heart, and persistence – he should have been a freaking 6 star.

by jtlonghorn on Dec 26, 2008 11:19 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I linked to SMQ's research

here.

proud to swim home

by learned hand on Dec 26, 2008 11:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I’ve read that before, but that article applies to all recruits in general.

I personally believe that for Texas, 4 star recruits do as well if not better than 5 star recruits. it just seems that way if you look at it statistically.

by thebrat on Dec 26, 2008 5:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Winning formula:

build the program around 4 stars.
few 5 stars who will take you to the top
few 3 stars will overachieve and contribute greately

my first born shall be named vy

by hookemkp on Dec 26, 2008 11:29 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

there has never been a huge difference between 4* and 5* players, most ranking sites often not able to agree on ratings anyways… you want the players that will do the best in your program. period. there is a combination of both raw talent, current level of play, and potential level of play to take into account.

some players have a ton of raw talent, but no real coaching, they can be coached up to be a great player.

by Displaced Longhorn on Dec 26, 2008 11:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Okam

I disagree that he met his 5-star expectations. He had an exceptional start but by his senior year he was merely solid and occasionally disappointing.

Disciplina Praesidium Civitatis.

by zamm on Dec 26, 2008 12:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I somewhat agree

I think a lot of the turnover from highly touted high school recruit to college superstar can be credited to the coaching. Our big name guys in the past six years or so have thrived under good coaching, but not so much when it’s lacking. This is like Okam with Chizik. He trived when Chizik was the d coordinator, but made little impact after he left.

by DLiv715 on Dec 26, 2008 5:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

One of my favorites...

A.J. Hawk
And he was taken in the first round. Interesting.

Time for a playoff.

by Hook'em13 on Dec 26, 2008 10:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

At least part of the star rating

Is driven by schools interest in a player. In an example of an AJ Hawk or a Colt McCoy, no one but the big state schools went after them because they made it clear where they were going. Both visited only the one campus.

Also, think of star ratings as a chance of being good. Sure there are plenty of 5 stars that amount to nothing, and plenty of 3 stars that excel, but there are more 3 stars that fail then 4 or 5, and less 5s than 4s, etc.

So if you consider a 5 star has say 40% chance to be a great player, and a 4 star has 25%, Id take three 4 stars over one 5 star. I dont think the star rating should be taken to mean much about a player’s ceiling, more that if they can get to their ceiling or not.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Dec 29, 2008 4:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs