First BCS Poll Encouraging
by Paramount on Dec 7, 2008 3:47 AM CST
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PrintThe Sagain poll is officially out and it looks very promising. Texas is ranked 2nd which means it dint lose any ground. Florida was only able to move upo to 4th, and are still behind Texas Tech.
So anyways, to get the word count up, the first poll is encouraging to the Longhorns.
This is, at least to my knowledge, the only one of the 6 BCS cpus to release their polls early.
....... word count
edit: link: here
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Where do you see these?
His site is not updated.
Not updated yet but,
I am 99 % sure that the top 3 will be OU, UT, UF in that order.
I am predicting that the final computers will be .94 for Texas and .89 for Florida
Texas has a legit shot if I’m right. I’m putting the my odds at 35-65. We will just have to wait and see.
.05?
Is a .05 lead in the computers enough to offset gains by Florida in the human polls and maybe even losses by Texas in the human polls?
by HornsFaninCalifornia on Dec 7, 2008 9:00 AM CST up reply actions
Well...
Maybe… Its definetly possoible for Texas to stay ahead of Florida with that margin. It’s a much bigger difference than what it looks to be. If I did my math right (If, lol) Then if Texas is down by 27 in the coaches poll and 100 in the harris poll, they will go to they MNC. There are other comnbinations, it was just easier to start witrh a round number like 100.
Redo
It can be 28 and 100, but not 29 and 100.
what does that change to if TX computer lead is .06?
I’ve seen this predicted on a few sites.
and by your math, Florida needs to gain 95 votes on Texas with the .05 computer lead for Texas (since Florida leads TX by 33 votes as of last week in the human polls)
Thank You Cincinnati!!
or else Florida would have passed Texas in the Computer Polls.
for those that missed it, Cinci rallied from down 24-10 in the 4th to win 29-24.
Ya
That was an unbeliveable comeback. Thank god for the pick 6, the Cinci offense couldnt move the ball
Funny how things change
All season we have been rooting for Cincinatti to lose because OU played them. Now we needed them to win!
"Only angry people win football games." --DKR
BCS uses the Elo Chess, not the Predictor
by HornsFaninCalifornia on Dec 7, 2008 8:17 AM CST up reply actions
Thank you
I knew I was missing something
by Longhorn in MO on Dec 7, 2008 8:23 AM CST up reply actions
www.bcsguru.com
thinks it will still be florida vs. ou in his update this morning. funny how though he didn’t know that cinci beat hawaii in his update…..nor did he mention the two computer polls out already that show florida trailing Texas.
He predicts Florida to have about a 100 vote lead in the harris, and 40-50 vote lead in the Coaches……………….which would beat the 102 vote gain Florida would need. Florida had a 33 vote lead on Texas in the two humans polls from last week. So they need about a 135 vote lead today on Texas today based upon the estimates I’ve seen.
I also think he is vastly underestimating the number of #1 votes OU is going to get with that historical win last night.
I still think this is going to be very close
Last Night
I believe he wrote that last night once the OU blowout became imminent (long before OU was still throwing bombs with starters in the 4th however).
Here is another estimation: http://www.fanblogs.com/bcs_poll/007933.php. The computers are much easier to predict than the humans.
that makes sense...
the mainstream media is just assuming Florida is going, while the BCS experts (the real one’s, not brad edwards) keeping hounding how close this is going to be!
He's backtracking a bit this morning
From BCSGuru’s Facebook page:
I think UT’s chances are looking at bit better now. Cincinnati pulled it out, as a result, UT is No. 2 in Sagarin and Colley, and UF is No. 3 in Colley and No. 4 in Sagarin … I see more computer separation now. UF might need a huge turnout for No. 1 in the polls.
This sounds almost like election day!
OH SNAPPLES
He’s responding to my post, lol
#1 and #2 Human Votes
If Florida receives the bulk of #1 and #2 votes, it probably won’t matter that they’re behind in the computers.
by HornsFaninCalifornia on Dec 7, 2008 8:57 AM CST reply actions
Seriously, OU vs. Florida
Take Texas out of the equation for a minute.
How in the world could any sane voter put Florida ahead of OU in his ballot?
Logic
When you vote based on “hottest team in the country” and “who would you least like to play right now”, there is no room for logic or reason.
Yeah but...
Doesn’t OU look even hotter right now???
Ack.
what does that change to if TX computer lead is .06?
I’ve seen this predicted on a few sites.
and by your math, Florida needs to gain 95 votes on Texas with the .05 computer lead for Texas (since Florida leads TX by 33 votes as of last week in the human polls)
Ya pretty much
Thank you for clering that up. I’m getting lost a little bit, aftr being up all night. Anyway, if Texas is up by . 06, then… i need a few minutess, lol
I hear ya..
I’m on about 4 hours of sleep…….but man it was worth it to watch cinci rally to win…………especially if chaos rules the day today in the BCS.
For .06 lead...
My numbers show that Texas would be able to sustain trailing by 143 votes as opposed to 128 votes. The difference is 15 votes.
Yes, where is billyzane to reassure us crazy people that we still have a chance?!?
by Hopkins Horn on Dec 7, 2008 10:03 AM CST up reply actions
Interesting
Mandel has his ballot up. He kept Texas ahead of OU.
I know, I know, it’s AP, but just an indication of someone who had us ahead of OU not punishing us because of yeterday.
However...
…if we’re counting on a lot of ballots looking like (1) OU (2) UF (3) Texas to help us out, this accomplishes the same thing.
by Hopkins Horn on Dec 7, 2008 10:22 AM CST up reply actions
No it doesn't.
We need Texas close to Florida. We will not be close to OU.
I know that OU is irrelevant...
…except as a wedge in a UF/OU/TX ballot. We’re as close to UF in a UF/TX/OU ballot as we’d be in a OU/UF/TX ballot.
by Hopkins Horn on Dec 7, 2008 10:25 AM CST up reply actions
and thank god Stoops doesn't have a Coaches ballot...
he’d sink Texas down to 5th………..I know it!
I would assume Mack is going to put us #1……..he better!
WTF?!?
From another SI column:
Stoops deserves no criticism for a single point of Oklahoma’s 62-21 win against Missouri. Neither does Texas coach Mack Brown for running up the score on Black Friday against rival Texas A&M to impress a panel of voters and computers.
How in heaven’s name can anyone write with a straight face that we ran it up against A&M?!?
they're obviously clueless...
we played A&M on Thanksgiving, not on Black Friday.
by longhornscardinals on Dec 7, 2008 10:26 AM CST up reply actions
No...
…he was watching the game from London.
by Hopkins Horn on Dec 7, 2008 10:28 AM CST up reply actions
More like another dimension
where Mack is a jackass and Stoops is as lovable as little orphan Annie.
Not exactly running up the score
I made this same point on Richard Justice’s Houston Chronicle blog when he suggested Brown ran up the score on the Aggies. We were favored by 35 and won by 40. How is that running up the score? Had we failed to cover the spread, that would have been an excuse to vote us down in the polls.
"Only angry people win football games." --DKR
Refreshing the USA Coaches Poll webpage...
and if I see Florida #1……..I’m going to cringe……then I’ll remember to focus on the votal disparity.
My gut feeling...
…is that we’ll wind up closer to #2 this week than last, but still wind up #3. But it’s way too much within the margin of error to give up hope yet.
Well, we knew the computers would like us over Florida today....
but the first big hurdle is about to be released in the Coaches Poll. We gotta be within striking distance
AP
So, the AP poll is out and Alabama is 1st?
You are joking, right?
You know, about a “new” poll with Bama #1 being out…
by Hopkins Horn on Dec 7, 2008 11:16 AM CST up reply actions
Must be an SEC-ordered recount. Cue the black helicopters.
by Hopkins Horn on Dec 7, 2008 11:16 AM CST up reply actions
You guys are rubbing off on me.
Or call it my never ending need to be disappointed. lol
by girlslikefootball2 on Dec 7, 2008 11:34 AM CST up reply actions
Dammit, I have to leave to go Xmas shopping in a few minutes
The wife has been very patient with me. Time to start refreshing the Blackberry constantly.
Can you imagine
what happens when we play ou with real officials that call holding and/or illegal men downfield?
My thoughts exactly, but...
what if they use Big 12 officials
by HornsFaninCalifornia on Dec 7, 2008 11:24 AM CST up reply actions
Are the NC officials
an “all-star” crew based on their grades throughout the season or officials from a different conference than the participants?
Final score: 6-3!
Neither team knows what the hell to do!
by Hopkins Horn on Dec 7, 2008 11:26 AM CST up reply actions
The funny thing is...
…there might be five Gator fans in the entire country who really know what’s going on and are as nervous as we are.
nervous as we are?
They should not be nearly as nervous as we are…for lots of reasons.
by pleaseplaykindle on Dec 7, 2008 11:33 AM CST up reply actions
IF the BCS breaks our way...
Gator fans and SEC fans are going to burn down Atlanta just like Sherman. Two wrongs don’t make a right, but this would force the ADs, commissioners, etc to retool the BCS.
by HornsFaninCalifornia on Dec 7, 2008 11:26 AM CST reply actions
yes.....SEC fans will be in an uproar....maybe what we need to demolish the BCS.
Plus, we get to bring hellafied wrath and fury to the RRR, Miami-style!
One good thing
The school that gets screwed, Texas or UF, will be the highest-profile team screwed yet.
At least USC had its AP championship to fall back on. Although Florida will as well. If we go to Miami, and Florida wins the Sugar, I think UF is a lock for the AP title. Which doesn’t bother me at all.
by Hopkins Horn on Dec 7, 2008 11:28 AM CST up reply actions
If I was a Florida fan..
I’d be extremely nervous that the polls didn’t come out right on time at 11am. They must be quadruple checking the numbers.
Is anyone checking
a link besides the one I posted above? AW? I have no idea if that is where it will show up first.
I'm checking USA Today & SI
I think SI beat USA Today to the punch for its own poll last week.
by Hopkins Horn on Dec 7, 2008 11:29 AM CST up reply actions
cfnscout?
Or is that only for the final BCS rankings
by pleaseplaykindle on Dec 7, 2008 11:31 AM CST up reply actions
Public voting
I think there would have been gains if we had the coaches poll public last week…voters would not have put Texas ahead of OU if they had to reveal that they did so.
But this week, they can put FL over Texas and its decently legitimate. I would even say that ranking OU ahead of Texas right now, even though I disagree with it and have good reasons, is not something that falls into the category of “egregious” right now.
Just my $.02
by pleaseplaykindle on Dec 7, 2008 11:31 AM CST reply actions
hopefullly this will end the same way...
in our favor
Why is it being released so late? Something is up.
by girlslikefootball2 on Dec 7, 2008 11:44 AM CST reply actions
BCS Conspiracy...Coaches revoting...Plausible? I think so
by HornsFaninCalifornia on Dec 7, 2008 11:49 AM CST reply actions
My new favorite hungover activity...
..is rabidly checking BON for poll updates. I don’t know what I’ll do when football season is over….quit drinking? The horror…
by pleaseplaykindle on Dec 7, 2008 11:51 AM CST reply actions
BCS.com is a cardiovascular society website.
maybe its to help us with our heart attacks.
by pleaseplaykindle on Dec 7, 2008 11:54 AM CST up reply actions
they're waiting for the NFL games to kickoff...
before they sneak out the Coaches Poll….I pray the reason is that Florida fans are about to hit the panic button
Coaches and Harris Polls are public today
by HornsFaninCalifornia on Dec 7, 2008 11:59 AM CST reply actions
Maybe they are releasing them at the same time.
by girlslikefootball2 on Dec 7, 2008 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
I would love this...
When UT takes the number 2 spot, I want it announced on Fox. I want Barry Switzer to announce it and to Mack call up there and chat with him on the air. That would be beautiful.
Florida not number 1, but big point spread over us?
Is that the interpretation?
Also, we got 4 first place votes….wow.
73 votes almost obliterates a .05 or .06 lead right? There’s no way Harris poll votes elevate Texas above UF.
Someone was saying that they needed 120+ points on us
So they’ve got 73 right now, they probably have enough in the Harris to make up the other 50
Ok so...what are we looking at
Should we be optimistic or did our chances just get that much slimmer?
only thing we got going for us in Harris Poll
is that OU could see a huge jump in those polls and put a cap on the number of votes Florida can add to their lead over texas.
73 is too much
We’d need a Harris and computer miracle. Not going to happen. This is what happens when you don’t listen to me. If we had made a stink, more voters would have at least considered us.
i don't think it looks good
the fact that OU is 4 in last week’s harris poll makes me think that they’ll jump us, UF jumps up to 2, and we stay at 3, losing substantial ground there, too.
Horrible News
A 73 vote deficit is huge. Florida is essentially ahead of Texas by a place and a half. We are #3 and they are #1.5. We need OU to be a unanimous #1 with Florida and Texas splitting votes for second and third. That didn’t happen.
Floirda was ahead of Texas in the Harris last week. It will only be more decisive this week.
Game Over.
--AW--
for what it's worth
we got six first place votes in the AP poll
but were still third
i want to score 60 points in the first five games next year
and then stomp a mudhole into the sooners in dallas and break their own record against them
In relation to OU yes...different story with Florida
We probably have a .94 to Florida’s .89 at best.
by HornsFaninCalifornia on Dec 7, 2008 12:21 PM CST up reply actions
7 votes
If Texas is up by .05, which is a strech, then Florida only needs to be ahead by 7 total votes.
If Texas is up by .04, about as good as could realistically hope for, then Texas needs to be ahead of Florida by 23 votes.
It’s over.
--AW--
We trail OU by only 10 votes in the AP Poll....
but I just can’t see them jumping on Texas as #1 if OU knocks off media-darling Florida.
It would be tough . .
but I think possible. OU wins an uninspiring game against Florida and Texas annihilates Ohio State, I think UT has a shot. But it would really be a “style” situation. A close game against Ohio State won’t do it, nor will an Oklahoma beatdown of Florida.
My odds
I’ve done .05 and got 14 points
workin on .06
Florida already leads Texas by 44 votes from last week in harris poll
are you saying Florida needs to add that to their total from last week? or just be up by that margin in the harris poll?
Karma
Texas just learned what karma is all about.
The Longhorns are up in arms about Oklahoma getting voted into the Big 12 title game. They should be. But look beyond the anger. This is payback My Name Is Earl-style.
Rewind to December 4, 2004 when Cal had just won at Southern Miss by 10 points (which included taking a knee with a minute left inside the USM 10) and was ranked No. 4 and in line to get picked up by the Rose Bowl since No. 1 USC was going to the Orange Bowl to win the national title. But then Mack Brown publicly politicked and allegedly made a number of glad-handing phone calls to his poll-voting cronies, begging them to rank his Longhorns ahead of the Bears in the final regular-season poll. This tactic worked. Cal’s lead over Texas in the coaches poll went from 48 points to five allowing the ’Horns to jump the Bears in the final BCS poll and get the Rose Bowl bid.
Guess what Longhorns, 2008 is your karma for 2004. OU gets to go to the Big 12 title game because you only beat the Sooners by 10. Only this time it looks like it cost you a shot at the national title. Grin and bear it.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer team! Go Bears! http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/sportsline
Go!Bears---GET A LIFE!
And and where are the Golden Bear since all that? Seriously, get a life and some class. Even the weakest of Texas teams since 2004 are better than you guys. How cares anyhow? What bowl are you going to this year?
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