Final Post On Colt and Completion Percentage

by BoddickerIsClutch on Dec 8, 2008 4:15 PM CST Comment 10 comments

Ok just one more game to go. So lets look at it.

Again for any new comers, the NCAA record is 73.6% set by Dante Culpepper.

Colt is currently sitting at 77.6%

The nearest competitor Chase Daniel is currently sitting at 73.97%

Graham Harrell is the only other dude in the NCAA above 70%, but as in everything else, Tech is just a distant 3rd with no shot at the crown.

Colt averages 31.25 attempts per game this year (we will call it 31). To set the record, Colt would need to complete 9... yes... 9 of those 31 passes against Ohio State. 8 may even technically do it, but 9/31 (29% completion rate) would net him a season long 73.9%

So how likely is Colt to get 29% or better?

His worst game EVER completion wise put him at 12/28 against NU last year. This was good for 42.9%
tOSU allows for 55% completion on the year, which is good. OU also allows 55% against arguably stiffer passing competition in the big 12.
4 "Quality" QBs against tOSU - Juice Williams (17/26 65%), Mike Kafka (17/28 61%), Kirk Cousins (18/25 72%), Andre Weber (23/36 64%) -- does anyone think any of these guys is better than Colt? Or that their receivers are better than Quan and Ship?
4 "Quality" Defenses against Colt - OU (28/35 80%), OSU (38/45 84%), TTU (20/34 59%), CU (23/30 77%)

Very freaking likely in my opinion.

Lastly, lets take a quick look at Colt's competition.

Chase - His last 4 games he is 108/160 for 67.5% completion rate. He averages 37.23 attempts a game (again lets make it 37). If Chase goes 37/37 and throws a perfect game against Northwestern, he will end the season at 75.8%, which Colt would beat with a 19/32 (59.4%) performance, which would right at his worst performance of the year.

I'll restate for emphasis, if Chase throws a perfect game, and Colt basically matches his worst game, Colt will finish with a higher completion percentage.

It only gets worse for Harrell, if Graham throws a perfect 47/47 (his season average attempts per game) then he ties Dante Culpepper at 73.6%

Our boy is all growns up, and hes going to get the record.