Projected NCAA Tournament Seeds: Feb. 10th
by awiggo on Feb 10, 2008 12:04 PM CST
in Basketball
25 comments
There are a full four weeks left in the regular season and another week of conference tournaments before Selection Sunday on March 16th. Sounds like it’s time to start projecting the top seeds. Here are my ‘educated’ guesses at the top 16 teams in the NCAA tournament.
I will start posting my top seeds on Sundays. These are if the season ended today. They are listed by strength within each seed as well.
No. 1: Kansas, Memphis, Duke, UCLA
No. 2: Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgetown, Michigan State
No. 3: Texas, Xavier, Stanford, UConn
No. 4: Louisville, Arizona, Wisconsin, Butler
Next Four: Kansas State, Washington State, Indiana, Texas A&M
Big 12 Bids (5)
Lock: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M
Likely: Baylor
Bubble: Oklahoma
Thoughts?
--AW--
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2 seeds
As of today looking forward, it looks to me like there are two #2 seeds still in play. The four #1s, plus TN and UNC, look to me like they're playing musical chairs with one another, but won't fall down below where they are now. Georgetown and MSU, however, don't seem nearly as locked in as the six above them. Texas, Stanford, UCONN, Louisville, etc can play their way up.
by Peter Bean on Feb 10, 2008 1:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
am I reading your ranking correctly?
You think Kansas will get the overall #1 seed, even over Memphis?
I realize people don't think much of C-USA, but do you really think that will be enough to push Kansas over an undefeated Memphis team for the #1 spot?
by Beergut on Feb 10, 2008 3:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
You are
I sincerely think Kansas is the best team in the country. The Big XII is one of, if not the best, conferences in the country. They currently stand at 7-1 and look to be headed for 14-2 if not better.
It won't matter too much though. Kansas looks to be headed to the Midwest Regional and Detroit with Memphis headed to the South Regional and Houston.
BTW, my pre-season pick to win it all was Memphis, so don't think my rankings are meant to knock the Tigers. Just trying to rank the teams based on what I've seen.
by awiggo on Feb 10, 2008 4:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why is Texas A&M a "lock"?
Look at their schedule. They have ZERO impressive road wins, and their only real quality win at all was against Texas at home.
They still have work to do.
by goingforthecorner on Feb 10, 2008 5:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Looking even closer
I only see three A&M victories over teams that would even make the tourney if it started today (UT Ohio State as an 8 seed, and OU as a 6 seed in bracketology).
by goingforthecorner on Feb 10, 2008 5:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A&M is a lock
Unless they totally collapse. Even a .500 finish at this point would get them in.
Wins over Oral Roberts, Alabama, Ohio State, at OSU (not that impressive granted), Texas, OU (before they kinda collapsed this past week), and most recently back-to-back road wins in the Big 12.
I think these past two road wins sealed their fate. Unless they stumble at home vs. Nebraska, OK. State, and Tech. They 2 of those 3, they may be back on the bubble heading into the Big 12 tourney, but that aint happening.
They're in. Probably a 6 or 7 seed as its shaping up.
by Blitzburgh on Feb 10, 2008 9:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
#5 UCLA
just lost @ Washington 71-61.
by goingforthecorner on Feb 10, 2008 5:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
And
UNC is down at home to Clemson at the half, 45-34.
It's on FSN.
by horndude on Feb 10, 2008 6:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
aaaaand fuck FSN
Game tied at 90, Clemson with the ball, 1 second on shot clock, 38 seconds left in OT.....oh...what? International Fight League? What the fuck is this!?!
Time slot ended, so FSN takes us away.
by BigTexBD on Feb 10, 2008 8:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
WTF
I didn't get to watch the game, but I'm looking at the play-by-play. Clemson was up by 15 with like 10 minutes to go in the game. Then of course, UNC gets FTs at home. Look at the differential:
UNC: 31-36 FT
Clem: 1-7 FT
Either the refs were crooks or Clemson was a bunch of hackers. Probably the latter. Another game, another choke by Clemson because they can't make their FTs.
by goingforthecorner on Feb 10, 2008 8:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OU
The Sooners not only shot themselves in the foot yesterday, but they practically blew it entirely off with that pitiful loss to Colorado. They're better than that. If they don't make it to the Dance, that game will probably be why.
by BigTexBD on Feb 10, 2008 6:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Agree, o.u. in freefall
And could lose five of their next 8. Ags could easily drop three. Hard to see them as a 5-seed.
by NYCHorn on Feb 10, 2008 7:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
they're done
Big 12 will get 5, not 6 bids. They have only one significant conference road win, at Baylor. They'll probably have to make it to the Big 12 title game, and/or win at Tech, at Texas and vs A&M.
An 11 or 12 seed not out of the picture when you factor in it being a kind of down year for the mid-majors. Bottom line though is they're not good enough to win enough significant games to make it.
by Blitzburgh on Feb 10, 2008 9:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A&M is a lock
They have been ranked the entire season. The beat Ohio State and Texas in a rout. They have several chances to get more good quality wins (Baylor, Oklahoma, UT again).
Besides that, they are still considered the 4th best team in the Big 12 and there is no way the Big 12 doesn't get at least 5 bids.
by the1austin on Feb 10, 2008 7:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Why?
How do you know the Big 12 doesn't get jobbed and only get four bids? A&M's best wins were AT HOME. Ohio State is still on the tournament bubble. OU is on their way out.
As far as ranking, A&M's been up there because their nonconf schedule was a joke, and it mostly consisted of home games. They're the Clemson of last year. Lots of wins but not many quality wins.
They basically have to do well in the Big 12 tourney, win a couple more road games, and beat KU or UT to get real consideration.
by goingforthecorner on Feb 10, 2008 8:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i responded above
so read that for my 2 cents, but when you say no decent wins, thats just not the case.
Bama, tOSU, mizzou, TEXAS (this win probably sealed their fate), Oral Roberts (RPI 50) - all decent wins.
Only way they slide back on the bubble is if they lose 2 of the following 3 home games: OSU, Nebraska, Tech.
Furthermore, the committe always gives weight to how you finish in February and March.
Since their 3 game skid in mid January, the Aggies have won 5 straight, with 3 road games in there.
I know we all hate the Aggies but be real, they're in. Period.
by Blitzburgh on Feb 10, 2008 9:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ags will get in
They've got three road games left -- UT, OU and Baylor. They could easily lose 2 of three, then will surely die at home at the hands of the Jayhawks. Even if they drop four of their last seven, they end the season 23-8. Add an early loss in the Big 12 tourney and they're 23-9. A soft schedule and a poor showing late in the season will drop them down in the bracket, but they'll still make it. But not to worry -- they'll be out in the first round.
by NYCHorn on Feb 10, 2008 9:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
some people on here are allowing their hopes
to overcome reason.
A&M's remaining games are Okie State, @ texas, Nebraska, Texas Tech, @ OU, @ Baylor, and Kansas at home.
That looks like, W, W, W, W, W, W or L, and probable L.
That puts us at 26-5 or 25-6 going into the conference tournament.
That would put us in the top 10 and looking at a 3 seed. Worst case scenario would be a 4 seed.
On texas' schedule, you have Kansas, @ Baylor, A&M, Oklahoma, @ K-State, @ Tech, Nebraska, Oklahoma State.
I see that as L, W, L, W, W, W, W.
That puts you at 24-6 going into the conference tournament.
For those of you skeptical of A&M being a lock to the Dance, how does your body of work make you a lock, then? Your record is almost exaclty the same as A&M's.
by Beergut on Feb 11, 2008 11:43 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
A&M is a lock
But this statement is ridiculous
For those of you skeptical of A&M being a lock to the Dance, how does your body of work make you a lock, then? Your record is almost exaclty the same as A&M's.
What where the two top ten teams that A&M beat?
by Wells on Feb 11, 2008 11:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
For what it's worth:
ESPN's Bubble Watch has Texas as a lock, and Texas A&M as the first "should be in."
Lunardi's Bracketology has Texas a 2 seed, A&M as a 6.
Same for Stewart Mandel (who's admittedly not a CBB connoisseur, I know).
CBS Sports has Texas a 4, A&M a 5 (updated 2/7).
RPI (which the selection committee says they don't consider, but still seems to play an awfully big part in the discussion every year) has Texas at 9 and A&M at 28.
And Wells,
What where the two top ten teams that A&M beat?
I'm assuming if Beergut's wishes come to pass, those teams would be Texas...and Texas.
by jc25 on Feb 11, 2008 3:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
HAHA
You're just so certain that Texas can't beat you guys. It's already looking like a repeat of last year. I don't see us losing to A&M at home.
by goingforthecorner on Feb 11, 2008 4:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
the problem with playing texas in Austin
Do I think A&M is a better team than texas? Yes. We proved it once already this season.
However, in order to win in Austin, we're gonna have to keep our cool when the refs allow Dexter Pittman to get physical in the paint, and don't call anything. I expect the refs to call the game just like they did last year, where they try to even up the game for texas.
That's homecourt advantage, although it seems to be taken to an extreme at texas (witness them doubling the number of free throws Kansas had, 28-14).
We just need to take advantage of our depth inside, keep our cool, and beat you.
by Beergut on Feb 12, 2008 2:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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