To Stay In State Or Not: Mack Brown's Recruiting Philosophy
Perhaps the most interesting debate among diehard Longhorn football fans right now centers on Mack Brown and out-of-state recruiting. Should he expend time and resources trying to land high-four and five star blue chippers outside the borders? If so, to what extent?
Let's take a look.
RECRUIT THE NATION
During this year's Signing Day press conference Mack Brown told reporters that he wants, first, players who want to come to Texas. But a close second, he wants kids from the state of Texas. His espoused philosophy is that kids from the state want to play for Texas, want to represent the state, and help tie the team with the state's high school coaches and the state as a whole.
The first potential problem with this approach is that you significantly limit the number of available players who meet your criteria. Let's say, just as an illustration, there are 200 kids nationally who would be objectively good for Mack Brown to recruit. With each additional qualifier you add to the process, you lose kids from the pool. For example:
MUST BE FROM TEXAS: Pool shrinks from 200 to 60
MUST ONLY WANT TEXAS: Pool shrinks from 60 to 20
The problem quickly becomes obvious: if you don't clean house in-state any given year, you're left holding the bag. The less obvious problem, though, is that high-four and five star recruits are exponentially more valuable than three and low-four star players. If we were to plot it out, the resulting graph would look something like this:
They don't call 'em "can't miss" prospects for nothing.
This is a powerful arrow in the quiver of those who want a national recruiting strategy. Though the state of Texas is home to a deep pool of four-star talent, it's an undeniable fact that you can build a stronger top-to-bottom class if you expand the pool of potential recruits beyond the state borders.
RECRUITING "I'M A TEXAN AND I LOVE THE LONGHORNS" KIDS
Mack Brown and those who share his view do have some counterarguments. We'll lay them out there before evaluating their various merits.
- By being so committed to recruiting the state of Texas, Mack Brown's relationship with high school coaches is unparalleled.
- Along with Georgia, Florida, Ohio, and California, the state of Texas is loaded with high school talent.
- The talent pool is deep enough to fill a Top 10 class every year without recruiting beyond the borders.
- Staying in-state shrinks the number of players to evaluate, which in turn allows you to make more thorough evaluations of each.
- You'll necessarily lose fewer recruiting battles.
WHO'S RIGHT?
Though Mack Brown's strategy isn't without merit, I think it's inherently the weaker one. As discussed in the first section, the biggest problem is that you simply can't build as strong a class by recruiting from a smaller pool of players. And though you'll have some years where you truly have a great, great class, you're going to have some more modest classes in years when either the state isn't as well stocked with studs or you don't win out on all the in-state battles.
Beyond that, I think Mack Brown's justifications for staying in-state are shaky in certain regards. The unstated premise on which Mack's philosophy rests is that recruiting nationally can't be done effectively. But a thorough cost-benefit analysis suggests otherwise. This is a program with deep, deep, deep resources - so deep that being more cost-efficient (but less talented) by staying in-state is not - to stay with the metaphor - worth the savings. Though it would destroy a school like Baylor to try to recruit from coast to coast, Texas has the capital to do so. And therefore should, if you ask me.
Additionally, finding the blue chips is easier than it's ever been before, and gets easier each year. The recruiting sites like Rivals and Scout identify the nation's top players when they're freshmen and sophomores in high school, and their evaluations are verifiably excellent. Gone are the days when recruiting required the coaches themselves to drive around in cars to watch as many high school games as they could. Nowadays the stars are pre-identified and you simply need evaluate all the ones in whom you're interested.
And finally, I find the "What we've got now is good enough" attitude to be a bit unsettling. You don't see Microsoft content with its market share, and I'm not sure - given everything discussed above - Mack Brown should be content with the status quo, either. Not when the cost of doing so is so manageable and the benefits of staying in-state relatively intangible. Moreover, one senses an "It's more trouble than it's worth" attitude from Mack Brown on the matter, yet coaches like Urban Meyer, Jim Tressel and Pete Carrol - all from talent-rich states - regularly pluck players from across the country to supplement their classes.
I understand why Mack Brown does things the way that he does, and I can appreciate the appeal. I also think the results are, for the most part, outstanding. But I think a thorough analysis suggests that we can do better. Which begs the question: shouldn't we?
Update [2008-2-11 18:59:47 by HornsFan]: Some excellent counterpoints are being made in the comment section. Definitely worth reading. And responding to, which I'll do in another post down the line.
--PB--
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Holy crap, I go away for a weekend and get swamped with work in the morning. So I finally make it to BON and have a million and one posts to read through? It's practically like the Monday after a gameday. AND there's Kansas on Big Monday? When will this madness end??
by jc25 on Feb 11, 2008 3:44 PM CST 0 recs
semi-related: Jamarkus McFarland
Word from the AAS is that McFarland was offered but didn't commit. That was expected, considering he still needs to visit other places (LSU and OU) and just about every school will roll out the red carpet for him.
However, a quote from the article makes me assume that Texas is the favorite:
"His mom wants him to go to Texas. She really liked everything they have to offer, but she also wants him to take his other visits and make sure that it’s the right choice for him."
Even though JMac doesn't say it himself, we know that what mama wants, mama usually gets.
by BigTexBD on Feb 11, 2008 3:48 PM CST 0 recs
Hah...
Come on....
Who really listens to where their Mom wants them to go. Thats just ridiculous.
by BoddickerIsClutch on
Feb 11, 2008 4:03 PM CST
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re: Learned hand
Is it just me, or does there seem to be a disproportionate amount of lawyers/law students on BON?
by 3rdgen on
Feb 11, 2008 6:31 PM CST
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Not just you
There's a huge pack of lawyers and law students.
by PB @ BON on
Feb 11, 2008 6:40 PM CST
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Couple of comments
I'd be interested to know how Urban Meyer's and Pete Carroll's recruiting philosphies differ from Macks...haven't looked at their rosters, but I'm guessing they get a lot more out of state kids (especially USC).
2) Have to admit that I was surprised that our class from Feb, 2007 didn't include more out of state kids thanks to our popularity from the 2005 title.
3) Mackovic was a big out of state talent fan (almost to the point of alienating Texas HS coaches) and had an assistant coach name Gene Dalquist who did wonders in SoCal indluding landing a kid name Ricky Williams.
4) I wonder if getting burned by the likes of Brantley, Perriloux, and Scott harden his resolve to stay in-state.
5) I guess at the end of the day, I'm a marketing guy and buy into the "fish where the fish are biting" philosophy, especially if the fish are as big and fast as they are in Texas.
6) Don't know if anyone saw this, but Jake Trotter, a staff writer at the Statesman of all place, did an article on some OU's more profile recruits who came from Texas...he quoted players like RJ Washington and Jermie Calhoun saying they "chose OU because they didn't like the fact that UT expected them to be loyal to their home state."
I thought it was a dumb article, because I'm sure you could quote UT's big name recruits as saying they chose Texas because they loved Mack's pitch and wanted to play for their home state more than anything.
But it is what it is...you can't get them all and it's not like Mack didn't go after Darrell Scott, just maybe not as hard as some of us may like.
My guess is some years Mack's recruiting philosophy looks a lot better than others.
by 54b on Feb 11, 2008 3:52 PM CST 0 recs
Point #6
I think is Mack's point: he wants kids who want Texas, who love Texas, whether in state or out. Notice he said he wants kids who want Texas first, and kids from Texas second. So it only makes sense if they don't like Texas to travel to that giant suck-fest to the north. But in support of Mack's stance, it says something that the giant suck-fest has a majority of its players from Texas and manages to give us such a run for our money. It speaks less to Bob "I can't win the big BCS games" Stoops' talent and more to the depth of talent we have in Texas. So I agree with Mack: get the ones who love Texas and want to be at UT and want to play, because in the end, a kid who's talented and WANTS to play for Texas is much better than one who is talented (maybe more so) and isn't too interested in UT because they won't go the extra mile for the team and are more likely to jump ship after a few years.
And in response to the Ricky Williams point...yeah, he won a Heisman but he never got us a National Title and he sort of went down the drain after college, so I don't think we should point to that as a point for why recruiting out of state is so awesome.
~Katie
by Katie McBeast on
Feb 11, 2008 9:49 PM CST
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Not so fast
I also agree with Mack's philosophy and think it's a bit hypocritical that any Texas fan would complain about his track record in recruiting, but I'd also caution you on knocking Stoops...I've got no love for the guy but it's no secret that a lot of his BCS losses are the result of his teams overdelivering in the regular season while Mack's post season successes (other than the last two VY years) have come from his teams unfortunate tendancy to under-deliver in the regular season and then play manageable opposition in Tier Two bowls.
5 Big XII Championships and six trips to the BCS out of eight seasons is no joke. Macks got 1 Big XII and two trips to the BCS in nine seasons. That's not an excuse for OU playing less than stellar in their last four BCS games, but it's not an excuse to for us to act superior either.
And I think you missed the point with the Ricky Williams comment...I was simply alluding to the fact that Mackovic differed in his recruiting philosophy...he still got great recruits like Ricky Williams, but I doubt anyone here would argue Mackovics recruiting philosophy was more productive than Mack's.
by 54b on
Feb 12, 2008 12:15 PM CST
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USC and Out of State recruits
I'm not willing to sit here and do a firm count, but out of a 2008 class of 17 recruits, 4 were out of state (plus the two Arkansas players who will be eligible for the 2008 season.) Eyeballing the 2007 roster, I would say that probably 80% of the players are from California, and of them the vast majority from southern California.
There's no particular pattern for where SC gets recruits from out of state - Arizona, Washington, Hawaii, Utah, Michigan, Ohio, New Jersey, New York, Georgia, Florida, and Louisiana are all places from which Pete Carroll has recruited current players... and British Columbia (of course). I don't think that SC has any players from Texas since Emmanuel Moody transferred, but I could be wrong.
I can't tell you whether there's the same sense of regional pride about playing in southern California that there appears to be in Texas, I'm not especially oriented to that sort of thinking. But as a region, southern California feeds most of the Pac-10 with recruits, so you couldn't really take the "if you don't want to play here, be off with you" approach to recruiting. There are too many other alternatives.
My impression is that Pete Carroll tends to go for out of state recruits who add speed to the team, especially on defense. It's worked well on defense, and been a bit of a mixed bag in the wide receiving corps.
by DC Trojan on
Feb 11, 2008 11:59 PM CST
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Oh my god....we're Microsoft.
I hate you Peter.
Regardless, you're right in the sense that the "Texas only" recruiting strategy only makes sense if by using it, you can corner the market and land almost every big name recruit in Texas.
And I honsetly think we could do this if the state of Oklahoma were as talent-rich as Texas. But it's not even close. So OU does the convenient thing for them, which is come into Texas. For some of these kids, Norman is just as close to home as Austin and the program is just as good too. Some are inevitably going to leave.
And another aspect you have to look at at how much does this "Texas pride" recruiting stuff turn off out of state recruits? Do they think that they won't be welcomed with open arms or that they will be outsiders? I dunno.
Of course, as 54b mentioned above, you never want to forsake Texas in favor of the rest of the country like Mackovic did. The question remains, if Mack starts recruiting the rest of the country in earnest, is he going to lose the semi-stranglehold he has on Texas? And without a history of landing big out of state recruits, is it worth the risk of doing so?
by billyzane on Feb 11, 2008 4:11 PM CST 0 recs
I dont like your graph
I don't think is close to as exponential as your are making it.
Probably the true 5* number is somewhat lower than 50% if you average it out over mulitiple years, and it is probably a much more liner progression to the lower levels.
by Wells on Feb 11, 2008 4:19 PM CST 0 recs
IT is AS close to -as- exponential
Man I need to go home.
by Wells on
Feb 11, 2008 4:21 PM CST
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Don't think so
There are like 20 5-stars a year. 75 high four stars. And so on. I can't imagine it being anywhere close to linear.
by PB @ BON on
Feb 11, 2008 4:42 PM CST
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Alright, I will believe you
as soon as you produce a study of all recruits over the last 10 years.
by Wells on
Feb 12, 2008 11:11 AM CST
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new recruiting strategy
I have a friend who used to be a scout for big time football programs, and he told me that mack's whole recruting strategy is a big reason we keep losing these kids to ou, lsu, etc. That whole "We are Texas" and kids should beg to play for us motto does not matter to an inner city kid whose family most likely did not attend college and did not grow up rooting for UT. I would say for the most part the people who watch college football and breathe and die UT football are the people who come from college educated families and whose family members attended UT(unless you live in Austin, in which case everyone likes the longhorns since there are no other hometown sports to cheer for). Kids in Houston and Dallas are bigger fans of the nfl, nba, moreso than college football because those are their hometown teams.
I think that Mack needs to change his recruiting philosophy and go after the best players available in the US, sure he will lose some battles but he will also win some. Carroll, Stoops, and Meyer get big time oos recruits every year but they also lose some big ones but it does not affect their recruiting strategy. Mack seems to get his feelings hurt when these guys choose to go somewhere else. My friend also told me that he was recruiting a big time kid from texas who chose OU because he was baffled at the thought that Mack did not want him if he visited other schools, so he committed early to OU just to spite Mack Brown.
by Cowgirls on Feb 11, 2008 4:37 PM CST 0 recs
wake up
every coach would rather their recruit not visit other schools. If a kid commits to OU just to spite Mack and not because its a better situation for him then he's probably too dumb to pass a class at Texas anyways.
by BMG on
Feb 11, 2008 5:39 PM CST
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in State
let's just take a bunch of white kids from Westlake every year. oh yeah, we already do that.
by brentmcd on
Feb 11, 2008 5:45 PM CST
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Man ... We are Texas, alright.
We seem a bit arrogant to outsiders, I hear. I remember when we used to argue around these parts (some still do) that Mack can't coach. After all, he's actually okay.
But one thing we used to know was that Coach February could recruit. Now, we know better. Oh, well ... we're Texas.
Those who study Mack closely know that he has certain numbers/stats that guide his coaching philosophy (arguably to a fault), namely winning explosive plays and turnovers. The team is coached around that basic philosophy, and it's a pretty proven formula.
I am betting here that he has done some of the same cost-benefit/numerical analysis re: recruiting. That is, there is a diminishing return on going after out-of-staters at some point, unless certain factors are present.
Could we do more out-of-state? Perhaps. Maybe we would have done so this year, but for D. Scott's mama.
And by the way ... parental influence is big in a lot of these deals.
And who said that Mack is the problem re: losing players to OU. I seem to recall that their roster has been loaded with Texans since the leather helmet era. And LSU has always had a lot of players from Texas, as well.
by B Orange on Feb 11, 2008 5:04 PM CST 0 recs
law of diminishing returns
While its true that the recruiting services find the top talent, no one needs them to do that. Mack recruits a particular type of player - one with decent to strong academics, a team-first approach, and a good character person. Last time I checked, Rivals isn't ranking guys based on what type of citizens they are. This is one of the biggest pluses to developing that type of in-state network - Mack does a lot for the local coaches and in turn they do a lot for him. Their is no way to take this sort of philosphy out of state - you just don't have the man power to do it. Plus, what is the point? There are always a handful of 5* and dozens of great 4* athletes in the state, and we don't get all of them as it is. To that end, the Texas arguement is why spend all those resources to "discover" a guy out of state, when instead you can "develop" those in-state guys through summer camps and relationships w/ HS coaches?
If your argument is we have to increase the pool of candidates, then the response is the further you get from home the less likely someone wants to come to you. Why broaden your search for diminishing returns? If the opportunity/cost to a national recruiting approach is better evaluation and selection of local talent then I would make the same choice every day of the week.
Lastly, take a look at the AAS Fab 55 for the past few years. Guys that became superstars were not always in the top 10 or 15, and conversely guys that were did not always pan out. The same can be said of the national lists or even more so. In the end its personal evaluation from coaches that matter, not necessarily what a recruiting service says. I'd put more stock in a class like this year's - one filled with high quality 4 star guys and several underrated 3 star guys - then in a similar class comprised of out of state players because there will always be more doubt that the out of state guys will pan out than the in state guys. You've seen the local guys, they're already a part of the family and not to mention you know who they were competing against.
by BMG on Feb 11, 2008 5:35 PM CST 0 recs
one more point
i feel, as well as some other sources I have talked with, that Mack has gotten kind of lazy with recruiting after winning the mnc. Mack used to be the main one recruiting these prospects now it seems like its more of the assistant coaches handling the recruiting. Why was Kennedy calling D. Scott days before signing day when it would obviously be more effective to have the head coach give the final pitch to a top recruit. It seems like the top recruiters like Carroll and Meyer have a more one-on-one relationship with these blue chippers. Russell Shepard was saying how Rich Rodriguez was at one of his practices watching him throw and Meyer was contacting him directly. Id like to see Mack do the same. But then again what do I know
by Cowgirls on Feb 11, 2008 6:16 PM CST 0 recs
another point...
though BMG mentioned it. I think Mack wants good character guys as much as possible. That's another thing he's been burned on. It doesn't matter how good the player is, if he can't play because he's suspended or in jail. So, I think those guys that bleed burnt orange are less likely to jeopardize the team by getting in trouble or failing classes.
by hornbone on Feb 11, 2008 6:37 PM CST 0 recs
re:
except for this past year when those "bad apples" made the entire team (university for that matter) look bad
by vy til i die on
Feb 11, 2008 6:43 PM CST
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and that's why
I think Mack is determined to avoid that happening again.
Or at least I hope he is.
by hornbone on
Feb 11, 2008 6:45 PM CST
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Gosh......
"We brought in 22 young men and signed 20 of them, and that’s just phenomenal that our coaches have done such a great job of evaluating exactly who they want."
....I can't help but wonder how great this class might have been, had we invited 40 fine young men to visit our fabulous campus and city.
by HornChamps on Feb 11, 2008 6:47 PM CST 0 recs
That's the function of summer camps.
It's my understanding that a lot of kids come to the summer camps and that there is a certain weeding evaluation that goes on following those. So, when you get down to these junior gatherings, the purpose is to sign most of them because they know who they want.
Kids who mature late or change positions and have great senior seasons may not be covered so well by this process - and on certain talent-deep HS teams this does happen. But there always seems to be a few spaces left open to dip into that pool.
I'd like to see some analysis about the needs of the team and how well they match to the available talent in the field. Some years the state-wide talent doesn't provide what the team needs and that is a time to be searching oos.
And we do pick off kids from Louisiana (Major), California (Ricky, Irby), Colorado, Oklahoma, New Mexico and so on. But we've always been weaker wrt Florida, the southeast in general, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
I'd like to see us get into those states ever so often just to screw with the schools there. You won't get many but the ones you do (obviously most 5 stars) would probably make an impression and give an entre for others - plus you may have screwed ND, tOSU, MU, Florida or the like, a certain pleasure in and of itself. We certainly have the Texas Exes in many of those places to make our presence felt.
Basketball has done this extremely well in New York City in a very targeted manner and therein lies the key. You don't have to be everywhere, but where we are, where you target, we can say convincingly: We're Texas and we want you!
Or to abuse Kinky: We're Texas and we think we have what it takes to make you a star.
by whills on
Feb 11, 2008 7:17 PM CST
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Or
They dont get as much one on one attention and get less players
by Wells on
Feb 11, 2008 9:47 PM CST
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What was Mack's philosophy at North Carolina?
No one is going to argue that N.C. is a great place for recruiting. M.B. was a good recruiter before he got to Texas - how'd he build that reputation before he came to a talent rich state?
by Texasrocks on Feb 11, 2008 7:38 PM CST 0 recs
Our recruiting slogan:
Is that we have a family environment. Mack Brown is a good man, a family man, and he takes care of the kids. Mack is not known to be a cuthroat coach who has a "do whatever it takes" attitude.
What does this mean? That the type of players we are recruiting, the ones that will be interested, are kids with strong family ties. What does that mean? That it will be difficult to get them to move too far away from where they're from.
The kids that are willing to go anywhere to play ball are the kids that have a "do whatever it takes" mentality that wanna play for similar minded coaches, i.e. the Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops and Steve Spurriers of the world.
Only recruiting Texas has its issues. Like someone said, we are much less flexible when it comes to positional need. But at the same time, when we don't go out of state that often, it is easy for Mack to sell a "you are so special to the University of Texas that we were actually willing to go OOS to get you, where we would have normally not done it for anyone else".
We all agree that recruiting all over the country would provide more flexibility, but at the same time, is much less reliable. We can't pretend that we can recruit the entire country and still maintain the same control over Texas. The uncertainty of the quality at a certain position in state is about the same as the uncertainty of getting a highly touted OOS prospect.
Also, one other reminder: one of the main reasons OU cleaned up the elite prospects in Texas is because OU will have a lot of players leave after this year, and there will be playing time opportunities for a lot of players (Good, Washington), whereas UT was stacked at those particular positions. Look at the OU depth chart and you'll realize rather quickly why Good and Washington were interested in committing there.
by fathead on Feb 11, 2008 8:32 PM CST 0 recs
We do recruit out of state
I think the best plan is to concentrate 90% of our efforts on in-state and try to cherry pick a couple out of state each year, which is pretty much what we've done.
My issue is more that it seems like the ones we do want (in-state or out of state) we put the full court press on in Feb. and March and then almost stop recruiting them if they don't commit by the end of March.
by Horncasting on Feb 11, 2008 10:00 PM CST 0 recs
bleeding orange
If we only want kids that bleed orange, I think Mack is really selling the program short. I didn't grow up in Texas and had no particular tie to UT, but once I visited Austin everything just clicked. I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but UT and Austin have tons to offer kids, including those who don't know much about it other than they watched the Rose Bowl when VY went off. There should be a place here for good kids who want to play for a big-time school, but haven't grown up loving the horns.
I want Mack to continue to concentrate on Texas kids, but I would like to see him take a shot at OOS kids a little more often, if they meet our criteria.
by SaintBevo on Feb 11, 2008 11:06 PM CST 0 recs
The more we recruit out of state...
by Hot Hands on Feb 11, 2008 11:18 PM CST 0 recs
Dead On
PB,
Excellent analysis. Not only does Mack's philosophy hint of complacency, but also arrogance and laziness. First, it is arrogant to tell a recruit that if UT is not their one and only choice we are not interested in them. Second, if you recuit only those players dying to come to UT, that makes your job alot easier. You don't have to sell the program, you don't have to woo the player. And speaking of wooing, I wonder if Mack Brown had the same philosophy when he was dating. Would he refuse to ask a girl out unless she had interest in no one other than him? As you said, limits the pool of prospects.
by OBdoc on Feb 12, 2008 7:36 AM CST 0 recs
Sally
I've heard an unsubstantiated rumor that Sally was an out-of-state girl back in the day.
by BMG on
Feb 12, 2008 4:07 PM CST
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Mack's approach for UT!
I would have to agree with Mack for the most part. Recruiting for UT is different. Texas has rich history, resources of every type - and plentifull to boot, as well as being the flagship program in the most athletically talent laden state in the nation. For these reasons, I think it is good that he plays up the "stay at home and represent" angle. In my view it is a good process to weed out the kids that are "me first" types. He wants & gets the kids that feel humbled and honored to wear the Burnt Orange.
As a former athlete, I was recruited by D-1 schools (though not the caliber of UT) to play baseball. I would have given my left **** to play at UT. My feelings were that as a Texan who learned to play in Texas little leagues, played in Texas high schools, was coached and taught by Texas people in general, that I owed it to my tutors. It would have been the best way to say "Thank You" to those who brought me up, by staying in state and playing for the flagship.
Perhaps Im different or old fashioned, but I beleive that for the most part (and there are exceptions) that kids who have that overwhelming feeling of "owing their state" are less selfish by nature, and therefore make better players and teamates.
As all here know, there are exceptions to most rules, but if what was mentioned about a couple of OU recruits not liking the fact that Brown plays up the "stay at home" card is true, then what does that say about THEM? Frankly, if you are an athlete and have not developed any allegiance to a team that reps your home turf, you are more than likely a selfish prima donna who needs the "your the greatest", or the "we need you more than you need us", or the "your so special" treatment. Let the other guys get the "me first" players, and we'll get the "I will run through a brick wall for Texas" guys.
P.S. I would like to know which school the scout mentioned in an earlier post works for. Frankly, criticizing Brown with regards to recruiting is pretty silly.
by jbob on Feb 12, 2008 11:18 AM CST 0 recs
Re: The Graph
While I agree with your general premise, the graph is speculation at best. I understand you were just trying to make your point without an awkward sentence or two, but a nice big disclaimer stating "NOT REAL DATA" would've been nice.
It would have avoided me (math major) going into hysterics.
by pleaseplaykindle on Feb 12, 2008 7:26 PM CST 0 recs
Ha
Fair enough.
And you're right; I was using a visual aid more than anything else.
by PB @ BON on
Feb 12, 2008 8:03 PM CST
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