Projected NCAA Tournament Seeds: Feb. 17th
by awiggo on Feb 17, 2008 2:27 PM CST
in Basketball
17 comments
Now, just three weeks remain in the regular season. Selection Sunday is March 16th.
Memphis remains the only undefeated team in the country and among the six power conferences, Duke is the only team still undefeated in conference play. Sounds like the top two teams if the season ended today. Here are my ‘educated’ guesses at the top 16 teams in the NCAA tournament. (*Duke and UCLA both play later tonight.)
They are listed by strength within each seed as well.
No. 1: Memphis, Duke, Tennessee, Kansas
No. 2: UCLA, North Carolina, Texas, Georgetown
No. 3: UConn, Xavier, Louisville, Wisconsin
No. 4: Stanford, Purdue, Kansas State, Butler
Next Four: Indiana, Michigan State, Marquette, Drake
Big 12 Bids (5)
Lock: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State
Likely: Texas A&M (RPI of 37, Strength of Schedule 90, best wins Oral Roberts, Texas, and OU at home and Ohio State neutral site)
Bubble: Baylor (RPI 42, SOS 44, best wins Notre Dame neutral site, A&M on the road), Oklahoma (RPI 34, SOS 25, best wins Arkansas at home, at West Virginia and at Baylor)
Thoughts?
--AW--
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I thought we were a sure fire #3 seed, but then I
realized we've got wins over two other projected #1 seeds and another #2. We've got to have on serious RPI rating.
I guess I'd like to know what you think it would take for UT to get a #1 seed...ya think 13-3 in conf. and a good showing in the Big XII tourney would do it?
I'm guessing when it comes down to the #1 seeds it's either us or Kansas from thh Big XII, but it can't be both...KU looks to have an easier track right now, but they do have to play KSU again and a road date with A&M.
I figure Texas' fate depends heavily on the next two Monday nights when everyone, especially the selection committee will be watching.
by 54b on Feb 17, 2008 2:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
54b,
Texas: RPI #6, Strength of Schedule #3, and 8-3 against the top 50. Not bad at all.
A #1 seed remains a longshot even after the wins over Kansas and Baylor. I don't think Kansas loses again in the regular season. The get K State at home and then face A&M in the last game of the regular season in College Station. If they win out, KU would be 14-2.
Texas has a tougher road, in my opinion. Home games with OU and A&M and road trips to Kansas State and Tech. I thought a realistic goal before the season was 12-4. Now, 13-3 seems like its within reach, but I'd still be thrilled with 12-4.
#1 seeds: Duke will get one unless Carolina runs the table and also wins the ACC tournament. Either way, the ACC gets one.
Memphis will certainly get a #1.
Tennessee looks to be in good position as well and will clinch one if they can win at Memphis later this month.
UCLA will probably get one as well, especially b/c there aren't any other real contenders out west.
That's four maybe five with Kansas being another real possibility if they win out.
by awiggo on Feb 17, 2008 2:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
but I'd also argue that we're a hell of a lot closer to that #1 seed now than we were just seven days ago at this time...though you're right, there's only 4 spots on the top of the mountain and it gets awful thin up there.
Last Monday afternoon, PB and I exchanged emails where we were both predicting 11-5 and even concerned about 10-6...but then UT went out and won the first two of the three games we were predicting as potential losses.
Sure would like to have one of those games against Wisconsin or Michigan State in our pocket right now...no stats to back it up, but I'm thinking #1 seeds rarely if ever lose two in a row.
Regardless, if we end up with a #2, I'll be really happy.
by 54b on Feb 17, 2008 3:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If we win out
Lets say that we win the rest of our regular season games and get to the championship game of the Big 12 Tourney and loss to KU. Would we than be a number one seed or not?
by BarcaFan on Feb 17, 2008 2:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Probably
Under your scenario, let's assume both Kansas and Texas win out. Both would finish at 14-2 and 'share' the Big XII title. In that case, Texas would have a better regular season resume by far with the wins over Tenn and UCLA in non-conference.
Then, going into the conference tourney, Texas would likely be projected as a #1. With the Big 12 tournament championship game ending so close to the annoucement of the bracket, Texas would remain on the top line win or lose in the championship game.
I'll still throw some caution out there. We are only six deep and remain vulnerable to foul trouble and physical teams. We still have three very tough games left, the first of which comes in about 29 hours.
by awiggo on Feb 17, 2008 3:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
One other consideration
with regards to the B12 tourney. With a team short on depth, coming off the grind of the conference and facing three games (normally) in a short span and going into a crucial set the following weekend, hopefully two-games, tiredness and team strength come into play.
An early loss in the tournament is often a blessing in disguise. And some have suggested fighting all the way to the title game carries a negative toll into the first round of the play off. That is, conference tourney title games equal more playoff losses in general.
Maybe Pomeroy has a bead on this, and it might not even play much of a role. Except this Texas team just doesn't have the kind of depth; DJ is not the Energizer Bunny, although he plays that role, but he is the key player for us. Unless Barnes can farm out the point to Mason and AJ for a quarter a game and let DJ sit, this is a problem.
Neither of you give this much consideration but I bet it registers in Barnes' wheelhouse, particularly if he thought the Horns might face two well-rested foes in the opening round. (I realize no one is that well-rested by the opening round; this was in the relative sense.)
Playing from a #2 (or even #3) seed would be a great achievement for this team. The conference tourney has never appealed to me; it's great for bubble teams or late bloomers, but seems to be a giant pain in the butt to those teams with a great portfolio over the regular season. If you don't need it...
by whills on Feb 17, 2008 3:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wiggo
No love for Notre Dame? I think they deserve some attention now, maybe as a 4, and definitely within the next 4. A solid record overall of 19-5, plus 9-3 in the Big East, has to count for something.
I think if they get through their next 3 (Pitt, Cuse, @Louisville) at 2-1 or better they can seal their fate in the top 4 seeds.
by BigTexBD on Feb 17, 2008 3:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
ND
is number 21. They were on my Next Four line but got bumped.
RPI: 26, SOS 67, just 4-4 against the top 50. Best wins over Kansas State a long time ago and UConn at home, when they weren't playing well.
They still need a signature win. Also, just 3-3 in true road games. Maybe next week.
by awiggo on Feb 17, 2008 3:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
you make valid ponts
That's why you write these. I suppose that game at Louisville on the 28th is put up or shut up. It's their last chance at a solid road win.
by BigTexBD on Feb 17, 2008 3:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
AW, here's a post idea
ESPN bracketology has us as the 2 seed in Memphis' bracket. Theoretically we could be playing them in Houston. Could you do a write up of how we match up against Memph - guards, fowards, off, defense, etc?
It falls in the "what if" category, and I'm sure you have better things to do w/ your time. But I've watched UNC half a dozen times, Duke 2 or 3 times, and I've seen GTown, Xavier, and UConn in person, yet I have no idea what Memph is like.
by DogTown on Feb 17, 2008 3:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Good post idea
Memphis is disgustingly athletic. And Chris Douglas-Roberts scares the pants off of me. They have size and strength in the frontcourt, sick athleticism in the backcourt, and they're happy to run with anyone.
by Peter Bean on Feb 17, 2008 3:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Does another loss to USC tonight
... move UCLA down to a 3? And how bad would that hurt the Horns?
by patienthornsfan on Feb 17, 2008 4:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
At least you didn't place A&M
in the lock category like you did last time.
If both KU/UT won out, we'd only share the title? I thought we'd win it alone since we had the head to head win?
I think K-State will beat KU again, just like Beasley predicted. Allen Field House is a great home court, but that didn't seem to stop KD from destroying them last year, and I don't see Beasley/Walker being intimidated either. I can easily see K-State winning. And if KU struggles with their 3pt shooting, I can see them losing to A&M also.
Every year you could say that Memphis has disgusting athleticism, yet they've never gotten farther than the Elite Eight. They can't make FTs, and Augustin > Rose. Our athletes of James/Johnson/Mason can counter their's well enough. I think a hot shooting night of Abrams/Atchley can put us over the top against them, not to mention that the game would be in Houston.
by goingforthecorner on Feb 17, 2008 4:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
H-town
I'm also in the camp of preferring a #2 in Houston vs. a #1 seed elsewhere. However, it's also important to remember that Memphis went to San Antonio last year and beat the Aggies, right? I guess the Ags were a missed Law layup away from winning that game, but home court in the NCAA's isn't always the end all, be all.
But, with that said, I agree that I'd take the advantage of having a home court crowd over the supposed advantage of being a 1 seed vs. a 2 seed.
by junglerules on Feb 17, 2008 4:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Share the title
Yes we would share the Big 12 title, just like we did the year they beat us in the head to head.
by Wells on Feb 19, 2008 2:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Another idead AW
As I posted on the open game thread... how about an analysis (when we get closer to March Madness) about the teams we want to see in our brackets.
All this talk about a top seed is fun but what really matters is the bracket match-ups no matter if we get a 1 or a 4 seed.
Maybe a few groupings of teams we don't want to see, teams we can beat but will be a tough game and teams we prefer to play due to our strengths. This would make selection Sunday extra fun if I have my official BON match-ups as I lament Memphis and Kansas in our bracket...
by UT2001 on Feb 17, 2008 6:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
How Do Horns Hit Denver
I remember when they came out here a few years ago and kicked the hell out of Princeton and North Carolina (before getting the hell kicked out of them in Atlanta). We had fun with the UT fans who traveled here, and this year we can prep you guys for that visit to Boulder in October where Mr. Scott will wish he wasn't Buffalo meat.
The only bracketology I've seen with Denver listed has us with the 4/5 seed bracket of both regionals. I don't know if that is preset, or is just the work of prognosticators.
If having UT in Denver means watching the Horns slide into a 4 seed I might be persuaded to root for them to stay with a 2/3 seed and land in Houston. But if they can make it to the Mile High City for my personal viewing enjoyment I'd be in heaven.
by RkyMtnHorn on Feb 17, 2008 7:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
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