what's the chance that augustine stays another year?

by abcdmetrius on Feb 7, 2008 8:01 PM CST Comment 24 comments

i'm saying ... dj started off great ... but it's been a long way since the start of the basketball season ... and while we like him lots ... has he been what he was? ... his jumper isn't falling like it was ... he hasn't been making the best of decisions ... i know point guards struggle when to get the team involved and when to be the man ... i KNOW that's a hard decision ... but still ... what's the chance that he stays ... he doesn't seem a lock for the wooden award that he once was ... not that that's the most important thing ... but his stock seems to have slipped ... no?

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I think it is more about

what his draft stock will be, and although he is not doing as well as he was earlier, I think the pros have seen his potential and will take him early.

The only thing that keeps him at UT is if he enjoys school enough to risk financial security for life for him and his family.

by Wells on Feb 7, 2008 8:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

my 2c

I'll put it in the 5-10% range. He's proven himself capable of controlling games, and there's no doubt he can play at the next level right now. The recent success of young point guards his size (Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams) only encourages him to move on. Plus he's a Steve Nash disciple even though you can't tell by his passing skills. And I think his dribbling will get better once he's out of those baggy capris he wears now.

Miami, Minnesota, both LA teams, New Jersey, and New York could all use DJ. He's probably a lotto pick now, and with a good showing in March could be top 8-10.

atsmahboy Kelson

by BigTexBD on Feb 7, 2008 8:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

He is nowhere close

in size to Rondo or Deron Williams. Williams especially is huge.

by ctex80 on Feb 8, 2008 7:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You're right on Deron

He's a lot bigger than I thought: 6'3" 208. But DJ and Rondo are very similar in size.

I wrote that in my post above just to illustrate that young PGs don't need size to succeed, and Rondo is a good example.

atsmahboy Kelson

by BigTexBD on Feb 8, 2008 2:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's funny

Augustin's game is a lot more similar to Deron's than to Rondo's. Rondo may be "only" 6'1", but he's lean with a long wingspan. Augustin, while giving up 4-ish inches to Williams, is similarly more stout and compact.

Rondo was an amazing defender and penetrator, and most surprisingly, he was effective at rebounding. He also had a decent sense of how to get the ball into the paint. He had, however, one of the worst jump shots on the team, and he was equally bad at free throw shooting.

Augustin is also an accomplished penetrator, but unlike Rondo, he looks for his shot first rather than the easy dish. Many of his assists come from finding the open wing player from the perimeter. Augustin's main strength lies on the offensive end with his ability to hit the open 3 and penchant for getting calls in the paint, whereas Rondo's greatest asset was his ability to disrupt the opposing team's point guard and passing lanes while being adequate with ball handling.

While I didn't catch too many Illinois games, I remember Williams playing very similarly to Augustin. He was a great penetrator and a deadly shooter, and putting him next to Dee Brown was a lot like seeing AJ and DJ in the same backcourt.

To make a long story short, despite Augustin being "closer" in size to Rondo, he should draw a closer comparison to Williams, even though they don't match up neatly in size.

If I were to make comparisons, I'd actually say Mike Conley. Conley was a better player than Augustin last year, but with the strides Augustin's made, I might put my money on Augustin running my point.

For what it's worth, NBAdraft.net has Augustin ranked 21.

My adopted kid is pure genius at the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model.

by jc25 on Feb 8, 2008 6:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

0% unless he has a major injury

I'm sorry, I don't have a link, but I read an article where KD said he talks to DJ every week, and said that DJ was going to be in the league next year.

So what if I'm tired? I can rest when I die.

by mmorales11 on Feb 7, 2008 8:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

read that too

but friendship has it's limits with lifelong
professional decisions

by abcdmetrius on Feb 7, 2008 8:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

see the thing is ... this draft is top heavy ... dj is PROBABLY a top 13 pick ... but not a lock for it .. another year .. he's guaranteed top five pick and with major endorsements for awards ... that has to say something ... plus it's not like he's just slacking with school

by abcdmetrius on Feb 7, 2008 8:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

He's basically a lock

for the lottery. Also, every year will be just as top heavy now that the new age rule is in effect. Also, with NBA contracts, as opposed to the NFL, it's not as big a deal for the money where the go in the top half of the first round, because rookie deals are usually only 3 years long. And the decision has nothing to do with their friendship, I think KD just knows that DJ is going to leave.

So what if I'm tired? I can rest when I die.

by mmorales11 on Feb 7, 2008 8:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What?

What does the age rule have to do with anything, all it does is delay everyone by one year, but does nothing to change the distribution of talent.

Second, it is a huge deal where you are picked in the NBA, because the salaries are set by contract for the first 2 years, plus options for the next two years. See here.

by Wells on Feb 7, 2008 9:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What about damion james?

Does anyone think he will jump? The five games he was really hot i thought there was a good chance but im just wondering what yall think?

I think there is a 25% dj will stay

by blazzinken on Feb 7, 2008 8:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

James isn't even listed

in the top 100 on ESPN's list of prospects...not that it means that much. I think he'll be here all 4 years, and will end up being a late-first round guy potentially. He's still raw, and will get more attention after DJ is gone

So what if I'm tired? I can rest when I die.

by mmorales11 on Feb 7, 2008 9:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Damion needs to stay

He's not ready.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Feb 7, 2008 9:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i thought that too

But PJ Tucker left early and he needed to stay. He is still very raw it seems sometimes but he is such a beast.

by blazzinken on Feb 7, 2008 11:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

PJ was the Big 12 POY. Damion isn't there yet.

by the1austin on Feb 7, 2008 11:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

thats a good point

by blazzinken on Feb 8, 2008 12:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

James

didn't miss have of the year because he couldn't keep his grades up either.

by Wells on Feb 8, 2008 11:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Guard Heavy Draft

I think DJ will leave but if there is a reason he stays it will be b/c this year's draft will be very deep at guard. Think OJ Mayo, Eric Gordon, Derrick Rose, Ty Lawson, Darren Collison, Chase Buddinger, etc. Not all of those guys would be picked in front of DJ, but the first three certainly will.

My prediction: late lottery, just outside top 10.

A lot will depend on how DJ and the Horns finish out the season. If he is a projected lottery pick, it would be silly for him to come back. 5'10" guards aren't going to ever get much higher than that.

--AW--

by awiggo on Feb 7, 2008 9:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs