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Morning Coffee Would Rather Stay At A Holiday Inn Express

Ewwww. When the Texas men's basketball team traveled to Norman this week, head coach Rick Barnes was assigned a special suite at the team hotel. The Bob Stoops Suite. According to Barnes, the room was a garish shrine to Mr. January, with pictures and crimson memorabilia covering the room. After Texas' 64-54 win, the ever-quotable Rick Barnes joked with reporters, "We were pretty intimate."

A 3-seed heading down the home stretch. For the second straight year, the NCAA got together a team of analysts and former coaches for a mock March Madness bracket selection. Best of all, they once again had an employee live blog the happenings. Texas was among a pool of eight teams considered for a #2 seed, but the committee eventually slotted it in on the #3 line. That's a terrific position to be in as we head into the season's most critical stretch of games.

AW said it best, "I'm not so sure we're one of the 12 best teams in the country right now, but we've certainly earned that position in the bracket. Those Tennessee and UCLA wins look better every week."

[sigh] Tantalizing headline? "RPI Is Past Its Prime" - Check. Good lead to the story? "We've now begun to simply count wins against the RPI rated teams as the best evidence of how good a team is. Are we not smarter than that?" - Check again. Collapse in analysis after that? Sadly, yes.

I thought Jay Bilas was on to something with his note on the RPI, a formula not nearly as strong as some of the predictive models used by hoops statisticians like Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin. I should have known better. After correctly pointing out that we can do better than the RPI, Bilas goes for the time-tested "Computers! We don't need no stinking computers!" line of thinking, writing: "If you actually watch all of these teams play (and the committee says it is doing that), then why do we need the RPI? It presents a certain perception, and that perception is not always correct. I believe that the selection of teams has become formulaic, and I'm not crazy about it. If you think that Team A is better than Team B, then Team A should go into the field first. You don't need to count wins against RPI Top 100 or RPI top 50 competition."

A lovely idea in theory, Jay, but in actuality a fantasy. Basing the selections on the eyeball test of humans who've seen snapshots of a team is wholly inferior to supplementing what we see with a ratings model that can take into account everyone's full body of work. Any time you hear someone arguing that we should be using less data to evaluate a complex, multi-factor system, just walk away.

Illustration by contrast. Cleanse your palate with the delicious taste of an analyst who embraces... analysis.

Awards announcement. Bloggers please note: Voting for the CFB Awards will begin next Monday, when the voting gizmo is finally ready. BON'ers please note: Our own Horn Brain was nominated for "Best Post of the Year, Analysis" for his outstanding look at the BCS Computers. Congratulations, sir.

Quick Hits. MB-TF's 2008 Signing Day page... Texas' Big 12 championship winning soccer team signs eight players, including five from California... BHGP asks what price is too high for football success... I answered a few questions on this Saturday's Iowa State basketball game with Clone Chronicles; his answers to my questions here at BON later today.

--PB--

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Wells and BZ...

Do you remember the "Great NCAA Seed Debate" of last year?

PB's mention of seeds above made me recall the comment thread under this posting...

http://www.burntorangenation.com/sto...

It reminds me of SNL's Jeopardy skits with the fake Sean Connery and the fake Alex Trebek (Will Ferrell)...it was so obvious I had no business arguing stats, but it still makes me laugh.

Good for a Friday funny anyway.

Be nobody but yourself in a world that desperately wants you to be like everybody else.

by 54b on Feb 8, 2008 9:56 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Drop some knowledge double team

we managed to respond to you within twenty seconds of each other.  I probably took longer because I was trying to figure out how to spell Connecticut and then just gave up and put UCONN.

by Wells on Feb 8, 2008 10:49 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Also reminds me

I need an off-season comment theme...PB told me beauty pageant awarenesss was up 32% at the BON vs. the previous off season.

Now I think it's time I used my powers to create awareness for a really worthy cause like...Tort Reform or Campaign Finance Reform or Midget Cover Bands like this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVgaR...

Be nobody but yourself in a world that desperately wants you to be like everybody else.

by 54b on Feb 8, 2008 11:01 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Do you keep a file of

youtube clips at the ready, or do you find this stuff in real time?

by Wells on Feb 8, 2008 11:04 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty much any...

pop culture phenomenon is on YouTube...simply put in a key word and you're off.

It might not quite be in real time, but it's definitely six sigma efficient.

Be nobody but yourself in a world that desperately wants you to be like everybody else.

by 54b on Feb 8, 2008 11:28 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow

A 6-sigma reference just got dropped on BON.  Fair warning should be given to all in watching out for 54b's black belt statistics.

by Shake on Feb 8, 2008 8:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

indeed

tensions were high that day, my friends.  though it seems that i managed to stay out of the fray for the most part.  unusual for me.

by billyzane on Feb 8, 2008 11:05 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ballbay debut delayed even longer

The statesman is reporting that Ballbay will have to sit out 10 games next year for playing on a European pro team, even though he did not get paid for it.

This will hurt the team next year in trying to develop the post DJ continuity.

by Wells on Feb 8, 2008 10:51 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

that seems rediculous
They should be able to double count him missing this year. I guess he redshirts this year?

You are right, that really hurts his development for next year. PG by committee with AJ and Mason.

by jimmer on Feb 8, 2008 12:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Rick was lucky

You should see the Barry Switzer room.

by Caradoc on Feb 8, 2008 11:43 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

You mean the hotel bar.
Be nobody but yourself in a world that desperately wants you to be like everybody else.

by 54b on Feb 8, 2008 12:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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