March Madness Roundtable
by Peter Bean on Mar 12, 2008 5:25 PM CDT
in Texas Longhorns Basketball
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PrintWith the Big 12 championship tipping tomorrow morning at 11:20, it’s time to kick our coverage into full March Madness mode. First up, some predictions about both the Big 12 tournament and NCAA Tournament. The questions:
- Who will Texas face on Friday, Texas Tech or Oklahoma State?
- Which team from the other half of the bracket will emerge in the Big 12 finals?
- Are you a proponent of the idea that it’s often good to lose in the conference tournament?
- How many Big 12 teams will receive an NCAA bid?
- Predict Texas’ seed and region placement in the NCAA tournament.
- Name two teams you don’t want to see in the same bracket as Texas.
Which one player, outside DJ Augustin, is most important to Texas making a deep tournament run?
PB: I’m going with Atchley who, at his best, adds a dimension to this Texas team that make us Final Four contenders. If he’s on the bench (or disappearing on the floor), we often become heavily reliant on our guards shooting long jump shots. He’s also got the best rapport with DJ Augustin to help set in motion our dribble drive, and he’s available to pop out for the three pointer or roll to the basket, where his inside game continues to improve. Throw in his remarkable shot blocking ability, and he’s my guy to watch.
AW: Connor Atchley. When Connor gets in foul trouble or plays poorly, the 'Horns usually have to just survive. The offense turns stagnant, DJ's driving angles are less available, and AJ isn't able to get open as easily off baseline screens. Texas also becomes much more susceptible to offensive rebounds. When he is able to stay on the floor, the Longhorns typically dominate (see Tennessee, Kansas, Kansas St.). Connor is the best shot blocker on the team and one of the best in the conference. He also sets solid screens and is able to stretch the defense with his long-range jumper making the 'Horns' offense much more difficult to defend.
BZ: AJ Abrams. If DJ is doing what DJ does unfettered, Texas can and almost always will beat anyone. If DJ is frustrated by the opposing defense, Texas can still beat just about anyone, as we saw during half of that 8-game winning streak, but someone has to step up offensively. The person that makes both of those things happen the best is AJ Abrams. He spreads the defense to allow DJ room to penetrate while locking up a defender, and he's by far the most capable of any of the other Longhorns of lighting up the scoreboard in a flash. If he's in foul trouble or bricking everything he throws up, Texas is in for a fight.
Horn Brain: AJ Abrams. I chose AJ because I'm betting most of the other guys will say anyone else, but if he has a horrible shooting night, I do not have full confidence that we can let our big men win the game. It almost happened against OSU, and if that exact scenario had played out against quality opposition in the NCAAs, we'd have been toast. Like, Michigan State toast. If AJ's canning the three, or at least being productive, I think we'll be able to go as far as our D will take us into the tournament.
54b: "The Other DJ" - If Damion James averages a double-double each time out, even if he does it without his usual lack of flare, we’re going to be in good shape. His PPG will be important to take some of the scoring burden off of AJ and Augustin, but not nearly as important as his defensive rebounding. Texas cannot afford to let its opponents score second-chance points.
Jeff: This may be the easiest question to answer, because it's clearly Connor Atchley. Connor is averaging nearly ten points per game this season. In Texas' five losses, Connor averaged 6.6 points per game, but in the four biggest wins (UCLA, Tenn, Kansas, Kansas St) Connor has averaged 15.3 points. Accident? I think not. Throw in his blocking (2.1 per game) and defense, and it becomes pretty obvious that Connor playing well is critical for Texas to make a deep tourney run.
Abram: Justin Mason. Yes, we need production from Damion James, Connor Atchley, and AJ Abrams - but Mason is the difference between the Sweet 16 and the Final Four. Justin is invaluable on the defensive end, and if he scores 10 points a game in the tournament and creates plays off the dribble it takes much of the pressure off of Augustin and Abrams to carry the entire backcourt load. Giving defenses an unexpected threat to worry about, Mason can also free up the big men inside - the portion of the Longhorns' game that has been most sorely lacking over the past couple of weeks.
Please weigh in with your own thoughts below...
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OK here goes
I'll go with the consensus on the first two: OSU over Knight Lite and KU will prevail.
I think we should win the B12 tourney for confidence-building.
Five B12 teams make the cut. Poor aggy.
I don't have an opinion on regions, but statistically, we're looking at a 2 seed.
I would least like to face UNC and Memphis, mostly because I haven't seen Memphis play this year (and I respect all guys names Roy Williams, for very different reasons).
Dr. A steps up and takes us deep. He is finally due and deserves the reward should he come through.
Just have to say..
by LadyLonghorninOK on Mar 12, 2008 7:35 PM CDT up reply actions
I have to agree with Abram
I feel the key to our wins besides DJ will be Justin Mason. We need great performances from the others but as Abram pointed out... Mason opens up another threat for defenses to worry about. DJ may be the heart of the team but JayMay is the soul. My two cents worth. :)
by LadyLonghorninOK on Mar 12, 2008 7:29 PM CDT reply actions
I'm with you!
To make a deep run into the tourney, we need either AJ or Conner to step up in each game on the offensive side of the court. DJ plus one of those on-again-off-again guys, combined with James' usual solid performance, is a prescription for success.
However, we should not underestimate the power Jay Mason has to change the defensive side of the court, plus the rebounding picture on the offensive side. His hustle, determination and occasional scoring threat make this team much more multi-dimensional. Plus, his recent tendencies to effectively drive to the bucket take defensive pressure off of DJ.
As Mason goes, so goeth the Horns.
by EddieTheAlbinoSquirrel on Mar 12, 2008 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions
What a comeback
Can we get the coach of the women's team to take over the men's team? She actually runs the high-low offense.
If she refuses to take over the men's team, then can someone send a copy of the game film over to Ricky B.
I just want to say
that the Houston Rockets are now on a 20 game winning streak, and I wanted to give them some BONer airtime. Thank you for your time.
by goingforthecorner on Mar 12, 2008 9:02 PM CDT reply actions
If you had to choose
To never watch another Rockets/Texans game or another longhorn basketball/football game, which would it be?
Hahaha
I guess I'd have to choose not watching UT sports. I've been a Rockets fan since 1995. That was the first team I ever started rooting for. My first love.
Even if I can't watch UT games, I can still check this blog everyday for all the info I need!
by goingforthecorner on Mar 13, 2008 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Champs?
So I was a huge Rockets fan back when I was like 10 and they were awesome, and then they traded all the good players and got Whiney Pippin and Sir Charles (who I loved but was older than dirt even then), and then with all the drama in the NBA, I sort of got over it. But now that they are tied for 4th in the NBA for most wins in a row (that was at 18, are they higher now?), I'm wondering if we're going to bring the championship back to Houston. I might have to start checking up on how they're doing now, too.
by Katie McBeast on Mar 14, 2008 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions
To make a deep tourney run...
We've won plenty of games with Connor being a no show. Obviously it will take a TEAM effort. It takes five. What if Connor goes 7-7 from three? We could still lose if DJ/AJ have bad shooting nights, we play horrible defense, don't rebound the ball, turn the ball over a lot, miss FTs, and get nothing out of our other big guys.
We need to play great defense and especially great interior defense if we want to go all the way. Basically, play like we did in February when we went on that very impressive winning streak. Connor needs to be a shot blocking monster, Wangmene needs to give us a quality minutes. Pittman's minutes have gone down so I don't even know his role. Chapman's minutes have gone up a bit and he needs to be able to contribute. Johnson needs to be able to play through his nose injury and give us defense, rebounding, and make his jumpers and post moves.
We need to take care of the ball. DJ's assist/turnover ratio should be high. We need balanced scoring. We need James to be great on the boards. We need AJ to at least shoot around 40%. I'll be happy with that.
And of course, make your free throws! On the other side, we can't afford to get in foul trouble either (Connor I am looking at you!). And obviously, we can't afford injuries.
Lastly, we need Barnes to be able to exploit the mismatches and determine the best rotations based on these matchups. There will be some games where we should go big and play a slow game (maybe see if Dexy can give us some minutes); other games where we should go small and play a fast tempo. Also needs to determine the best defense. Are we better off going zone (3-2, 2-3, matchup zone), man-to-man, or something else like box and 1?
by goingforthecorner on Mar 12, 2008 11:03 PM CDT reply actions
I suppose its possible
However I find it very unlikely that if we get a 7/7 from 3pt land from Connor that we lose. You have to give a whole ton of ifs to make that happen.
That said I think Connor is key, and after reading Jeff's response, assuming its accurate, I have no doubt. When Connor is scoring, he spreads the D, and that makes the entire offense better.
Our worst offensive outtings are when we are stuck with only guard play producing points. The opponents D can tighten up, and we become stagnant. Connor knocking down some shots puts defense on their heels, and people have to guard him tight off the high screen, sucking up another person off the guards, and opening up the O.
Heres to hoping we see plenty of Dr. A skyhooks, cause Connor also cant get involved unless he gets fed from DJ.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Mar 13, 2008 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions
Just for the hell of it
I'm going to go with Gary Johnson. The best teams are going to have legitimate inside games. DaMo and Dr. A are must-haves, but to win the big ones we will need a third inside player.
Speaking of Mason, he's our only hope if DJ tires or gets in foul trouble. Is there any doubt that Barnes is looking ahead to next year without DJ?
Finally, apart from the speculation about our seed, I wonder what others expect for Kansas?
Since the tournament committee
basically ignores the Big 12 championship game, could you imagine what would happen if they had KU as a 1 seed and UT as a 2 seed, but Texas beats Kansas in the championship game on Sunday? I don't know if I'd be angry though... depends on if UT is in the South regional or not.
by goingforthecorner on Mar 13, 2008 12:53 AM CDT reply actions
It matters
When two teams are so closely ranked, what they like to do is reserve two spots and then assign them based on the tournament finish, leaving the rest of the bracket intact.
As I've said elsewhere, this could also mean the regional assignments would have to be worked out beforehand as well. We need to hope that KSU beats KU so that the committee knows that it is Texas they are assigning.
All wrong.
It's obviously JD Lewis and his otherworldly three-point stroking ability.
Nope
It's Ian Mooney. On the off chance that he can magically gain all of Kevin Durant's physical attributes, skills and abilities before the tourney.
By the way, Ian Mooney's favorite musician is Neil Diamond. Discuss.
All that time on the bench makes Ian shout:
"I am, I cried."
by EddieTheAlbinoSquirrel on Mar 14, 2008 12:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, that's pretty bad
but is it worse than She Thinks My Tractor's Sexy?
OK, maybe it is. I personally think Neil Sedaka is far more talented.
The new Atchley Paradigm
I agree that the difference between good Connor and great Connor is the difference between a tough loss and a big win.
Look at it this way
Outside of our heavy hitters, the two DJ's, we have a group of role players, however all their different roles are so huge....it makes it almost impossible to have a good answer to the posed question...the closest correct answer is the role player that causes the opposing coach to change his scheme and strategy up the most...
AJ-u gotta always play him from the outside regardless what kinda slump he's in and he's proven that he's not plannin to ever stop shooting. To respect his shot, spreads the floor and allows everybody else to do their thing inside.
Connor-when he's on his game, think about what he brings to the squad....our most efficient inside/outside threat, and i say that because Damion isnt a major three point threat...and he's our best weakside shot blocker. I think this guy just might be the most important role player on the team when he combines a smart game with an aggressive one. He does the things for the team that a team needs to make a deep run.
Jay Mason-Horn fans, lets not underestimate the power of solid, constant defense and hussle. Those are the small things that won the game for you, but never ever showed up on the box score. Mason has proven in the past to be somewhat of a threat offensively, but i truly feel that he has grown to be unsure of his offensive role, when he has so many other weapons on his team, but what he does with that is he does what he feels confident doing and thats playing hard and making plays for his team without scoring a bunch of points. Lets not overlook this kid's value.
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