Last Year's ESPN Bracket Champion
by texaslonghornfan on Mar 18, 2008 9:00 PM CDT
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PrintLast years ESPN Tournament Challenge Champion reveals his picks for this year.
Good news for Texas, his final four:
1Kansas
1North Carolina
2Texas
1UCLA
But he does whip out the UCLA over Texas.
and Kansas over North Carolina.
and then UCLA over Kansas for the Title.
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Come on, most of you just picked three #1 seeds and Texas. That's not fun! The most obvious picks don't win you large pools either. Last year was an anomoly. Even if you pick right with obvious final four picks, there are a bunch of other people who picked the same teams. 63% so far have the SAME FINAL FOUR! Wake up and dare to be different!
And whoever picked all four #1's shame on you.
Just to qualify if it didn't come across in the post, tongue was in cheek.
I understand
I totally get your point, man. Really, I do. I guess I feel like I shouldn't just pick crazy upsets just to be different. I want some sort of logic or even instinct behind it. I do have some upsets early in the tourney, but I really do feel like it's one of those years where the cream is going to rise to the top again, and the top seeds will dominate. I think there is a huge discrepancy this year in top seeds compared to those even 3 and lower. (With that said, despite my conventional final 4, I do have baylor taking purdue, siena beating Vandy, and Davidson winning two tourney games. How odd is it that 10 seeds do better in the second round historically than 7 seeds? Or that 12 seeds win more than 11 seeds in the first round? Always been weird to me.)
What is very interesting, though- I read somewhere that in every EVEN numbered year since 1990, a #1 seed has lost in the second round. Pretty weird trend, no?
by junglerules on Mar 18, 2008 11:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, interesting trends
Most likely #1 to lose in the second round in my opinion: UCLA (and I have them in my final 4!)
Not all upset predictions are crazy either. My biggest final 4 gamble is Georgetown making it to the final 4 while everyone else is picking Kansas. I think G-town has a very good shot because they have smart guards, a bigman that can dominate at any moment, they've been there before recently unlike Kansas, and Kansas has not played like a #1 team outside of their state this year. I finally found one article that agrees with me, though it took me awhile: http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports...
I have to admit that I have two #1's in my final 4, so I'm not a big upset picker either. I just think gambling a little bit helps if you want to have a chance at winning a big bracket. I'd also bet heavily against 3 #1's making it to the final 4 this year. I know that each of those teams (Texas, UNC, Kansas, UCLA) probably are more likely to go to the final four than any individual team in any of those brackets. However, as I said before, to win a big pool it's a better bet to gamble a little on the final 4 on a team you think has a good matchup. If you're right on a slight upset gamble it'll do way better than if you're right on the obvious teams, because many people will have picked the same teams in that case.
you're correct
sbout the risk taking. In many cases, if one's final four is similar to others, the difference in points will probably come down to who picked the "toss up" games in the first round correctly. You know, like the 8-9 and 7-10 games. But, I agree, too, that it has a lot to do with matchups. I have Memphis as my first #1 to lose.
I know Kansas in the past has flamed out early, but you figure that has to end one year, no? I mean, Syracuse finally went all the way, Roy Williams finally won his title- you figure that at some point the KU depth and talent will actually pull through. I do have them losing to UCLA in the title game.
Last year, I had UCLA and Georgetown in my title game, and was looking okay up until those final 4 matchups. Of course, I had Tenn. beating Ohio State, and those POS Buckeyes pulled out that game after miraculously getting past Xavier. I was so pissed!!
well
I agree
Last Sunday, we saw Kansas shoot extremely well with a home crowd cheering them against a zone featuring two sub-6 ft guards. They will not play like that every game.
Maybe I was easily swayed
by the ACC tournament and a few of the games during the year, but I decided to pick Clemson over Kansas, just to change things up (and because I hope that would make it easier for UCLA to win it all). It's probably not a popular choice, but then I haven't placed higher than 3rd in a tournament pool in my life, so that should tell you something.
A Trojan can only be used once. A Bruin is forever.
me too
I also have Clemson over Kansas. A long shot? Who knows.
by Bdub on Mar 19, 2008 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions
That was what
I am leaning towards as well.. Clemson over Kansas by 3.
by LadyLonghorninOK on Mar 19, 2008 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm really curious
to see how Memphis ends up. I think there is a chance we might not even get to see them if we were to get so far. Between Michigan St, Pittsburgh, and Oregon I think one of those teams is going to put them out. Either that or they get tired of every person on payroll at ESPN discounting them and they win every game by 58 points.
Clemson
They looked really good, but why is everyone giving them a free pass for their horrible free throw shooting when others claim that will be Memphis' downfall? (Memphis shoots them at 59.6%, Clemson at 62.3%)
Plus, they have Villanova in that dreaded 12-5 game. Uh oh! : )
I'm still not convinced
about Villanova. I don't think they have the size to deal with Clemson, and they seemed really up and down this year. Even though it was earlier in the year, they lost to NC State, DePaul, and Cincinnati and barely beat Seton Hall. But then they barely lost to Georgetown once, beat Pitt, and barely beat UConn.
To be honest, I couldn't find a good 12-5 upset this year (no faith in Temple, George Mason, or Western Kentucky). Maybe it will be like last year and there won't be one...
A Trojan can only be used once. A Bruin is forever.
I agree about Villanova...also, my upsets
I'm guessing when Villanova beat Pitt before, they had injury problems. Pitt looks like a completely different team right now since it's healthy and playing well together. Bob Knight may be right. They could definitely get to the final four if they keep playing like they did in the conference tourney.
As far as the 12-5 upsets, I made a completely different bracket that I didn't join a group with; just in case this ends up being one of those weird years where there are a lot of upsets.
So, I've got Temple winning that game against Michigan State. More for the fact that MSU tends to live and die by Neitzel's three pointers. If he has a bad night they are gone.
I don't see Western Kentucky winning because of Drake's odd offense and the way they move the ball. If Harangody is having a really bad game, I could see George Mason winning, but he's a fairly consistent big guy with great range.
I've got St Joe's beating Oklahoma as well.
My final four - upset edition
Forgot to add my final four to the post. I have Kansas winning it all against Texas in the championship game. I felt like picking Georgetown over KU in the Elite 8, but Georgetown doesn't seem to want it as much as Kansas. Even with their lackluster past performances, I think Kansas finally pulls through and wins it this year.
- North Carolina
- Kansas
- Texas
- Xavier
He also picked UCLA to win it all
which makes my stomach turn, because like he said, it's the "Kiss of death."
A Trojan can only be used once. A Bruin is forever.
I wouldn't worry about it too much
From what I understood by his write-up (and I'm paraphrasing from memory here), he picked them because over the last few weeks they seemed like they couldn't lose. I guess he was referring to the calls going their way and the way they seemed unwilling to lose the close games with Arizona, Cal, Stanford and USC.
Final Four
Kansas, Tennessee, Memphis, UCLA
Kansas over Memphis in final
Sleeper final four team that I didn't have the balls to take: Notre Dame
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