NCAA Projected Seeds: March 2nd

by awiggo on Mar 2, 2008 6:27 PM CST in Texas Longhorns Basketball

Tomorrow begins the final week of the regular season. There are still probably seven teams vying for the four #1 seeds. While there is almost no chance that two ACC teams will earn #1’s, if the season ended today, they would.

The Pac-10 and Big East tournaments begin Wednesday March 12th. The ACC, SEC, Big 10, and Big XII tournaments begin Thursday March 13th. Selection Sunday is March 16th.

They are listed by strength within each seed as well.

No. 1: Tennessee, Memphis, Duke, North Carolina
No. 2: UCLA, Texas, Kansas, Xavier
No. 3: Georgetown, UConn, Louisville, Wisconsin
No. 4: Stanford, Notre Dame, Indiana, Purdue

Next Four: Vanderbilt, Drake, Marquette, Butler

Big 12 Bids (5)
Lock: Texas, Kansas
Likely: Kansas State (RPI 43, Strength of Schedule 13), Oklahoma (RPI 30, Strength of Schedule 8)
Bubble: Baylor (RPI 33, Strength of Schedule 41), Texas A&M (RPI 46, Strength of Schedule 72),

Thoughts?

--AW--

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This last week will be fun

If Duke or UNC -- but not both -- earn a 1 seed, the question is which 2 seed jumps up a notch. With the usual caveat (i.e., "Lots of basketball still to be played!"), it seems like UCLA has the best shot. Texas or Kansas will need to win out AND win the conference tournament.

As for the bubblers, the A&M-Baylor game on Wednesday will be huge. The Ags are terrible on the road -- advantage Bears. But then Baylor has to finish in Lubbock -- uh oh. Win or lose on Wednesday (but especially if they lose), the Ags absolutely have to upset Kansas at home on Saturday. If they do ... advantage Horns. How would the Ags like that -- their win over Kansas hands the Big XII title to Texas?

by NYCHorn on Mar 2, 2008 7:34 PM CST reply actions

Hawks out of their slump

I don't see Kansas losing again unless its against us in the Big XII championship game. I have a feeling they have come out of their slump and will be playing some good basketball this month.

I would expect Duke to end up as a #2 seed since I don't see them beating UNC unless they have a very hot shooting night from the perimeter. Regardless, I believe UCLA will end up a #1 seed once it's all said and done.

by RLee49 on Mar 3, 2008 9:20 AM CST up reply actions

Florida Gators last season

Lost two back to back SEC road games against unranked teams (LSU and Tenn) at the end of February. Ended up the season being 29-5 after winning the SEC tourney (they won out in other words).

I can see us doing the same except for maybe the conference championship game. I'm OK with that.

Can you live in that moment as best you can, with clear eyes, and love in your heart, with joy in your heart? If you can do that gentleman -- you're perfect.

by goingforthecorner on Mar 2, 2008 8:36 PM CST reply actions

I know I sound like a homer

but I think that UCLA may be slightly ahead of Duke in line for a 1-seed. While the ACC is higher in the RPI (thanks to Oregon St being one of the worst Pac-10 teams of all time), I still think the Pac-10 is a better conference. Take out the best and worst team from each conference, and the Pac-10 has the highest RPI (you can go to BruinsNation.com to see the proof of this). Duke's current RPI is higher than UCLA's (prior to UCLA's victory over Arizona), but I think their losses are worse. Each lost to a team that won't make the tournament (Wake and Washington), but Duke's losses to Pitt and Miami are worse than UCLA's losses to USC and Texas. Plus, UCLA has 8 wins against the top 50, while Duke has 6.

And I believe that whoever loses the Duke-UNC game will end up being a 2-seed anyway. Unless UCLA ends up losing before the Pac-10 tournament seminfinals, I am pretty sure that they will lock up a 1 seed (assuming they beat Stanford and Cal).

GO BRUINS. HOOK 'EM HORNS.

A Trojan can only be used once. A Bruin is forever.

by uclawarren on Mar 2, 2008 10:13 PM CST reply actions

Good points

You're right the Duke/UNC winner is headed for a #1, while the loser is headed for a #2. UCLA will be the beneficiary by week's end, assuming they take care of business.

UCLA vs top 50 8-2
Duke vs top 50 6-2

UCLA vs top 100 15-2 (Bruins also have one loss outside top 100)
Duke vs top 100 15-3

UCLA Strength of Schedule 37 (before Zona)
Duke Strength of Schedule 12

Duke also has better non-conference RPI and Strength of Schedule numbers.

--AW--

by awiggo on Mar 2, 2008 10:50 PM CST up reply actions