What's Eating Kyle Russell?
In the comments of the Oral Roberts wrap up, bassale47 raises an interesting point that we've been looking to address...namely, what the hell is wrong with Kyle Russell? Is he pressing at the plate, trying too hard to break out of his slump?
We're not sure that's the case.
If that were the case, we think we'd be seeing a ton of strike outs as he swings at everything, and no walks because of that. Now, we have to take into account that Kyle Russell at his best still strikes out a lot, but looking at the stats for his three years as a Horn, in terms of strike outs and walks, Kyle seems to be going outside the zone less than in previous years. He's not getting many hits and only has 1 HR on the year, but is it mental?
2006 --
25 walks (13% of plate appearances), 55 Ks (29%)
2007 --
53 walks (19%), 64 Ks (23%)
2008 --
26 walks (31%), 24 Ks (24%)
Somehow Kyle has managed to keep his strikeout percentage the same as last year while dramatically improving the number of walks he takes. That doesn't seem like the mark of a player that's pressing at the plate. He's still getting on base (OBP .456) and scoring a lot of runs (17).
We don't know what's wrong with Kyle but we're not yet convinced that he's slumping becuase he's trying too hard.
Thoughts?
--40AS--
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Very interesting
The spike in his walk rate is a positive indicator. I suppose it's possible in his effort to be more selective, he's not doing as good a job of finding his pitch to hammer. With just 4 XBH in 81 PAs, there's certainly something a little bit off. But the walk rate is good to see.
I haven't had a chance to see him play, though, so I'll defer to everyone who's actually watching him.
by PB @ BON on Mar 25, 2008 4:59 PM CDT 0 recs
Uh oh...
The early symptoms suggest Morgan Ensberg Syndrome.
I don't know anything about UT baseball or Russell, but if he isn't batting leadoff already, bat him leadoff. Take advantage of the high OBP.
by goingforthecorner on Mar 25, 2008 5:22 PM CDT 0 recs
Or
the strained muscle in his neck had something to do with it. /shrug
by Forty on Mar 25, 2008 5:40 PM CDT 0 recs
Possibility
It's possible that he's fouling off pitches he would have hit into play last year (i.e. because of injury he can't get around on them), and as a consequence he's seeing more pitches and thus, more balls which lead to walks.
I'd like to see a comparison of the number of pitches he fouls off per at-bat, or at least the number of pitches he sees per at-bat. that might shed a little bit of light on what type of walks he's taking, which might then shed some light on what type of batter he's become this year.
by billyzane on Mar 25, 2008 6:16 PM CDT 0 recs
Tough outs?
I don't know if the kind of statistical analysis exists for college baseball as for pro (and I don't even understand most of the sabremetric stuff anyhow), but given that his walk rate is up so dramatically it sounds like his plate discipline has gotten much better. Any way to track things like batting average on balls he's hitting in play or ground balls vs. fly balls and whether those sorts of things are different than previous seasons?
Failing that...get some folks that have been at the games to comment on how he looks in person -- I listen to all of ASU's games on the radio, but I still couldn't have told you why Kiel Roling was so miserable at the plate before this past week cause I'm just not seeing what is actually taking place. There's nothing like actually being there to see if he's swinging at bad pitches, hitting the ball hard right at people, driving the ball to the deepest part of the park for long outs, etc. If his OBP is still high and he's still scoring alot, I'd assume things will even out by the end of the year.
by Beatuofa on Mar 25, 2008 6:18 PM CDT 0 recs
My take...
...because I love me!
There are generally two reasons for a spike in walk rate. Either he's become extremely passive at the plate, or he's being pitched around.
I admit I haven't seen a game yet, but a neighbor who's a die-hard fan said that Russell isn't seeing enough hittable strikes. When he does see strikes, he's pressing. So it's the inevitable catch-22 when you are being avoided.
My worry is the XBHs, or lack thereof. You gotta think that could be an injury factor. Also, remember that ML scouts have concerns about his swing.
I hope to take my son to a game or two coming up, but life's pretty frickin' busy these days. I'd like to get a first-hand look because I feel like I'm pissing against the wind with this armchair analysis.
by bigfatdrunk on Mar 25, 2008 6:22 PM CDT 0 recs
Taking a swing at this
Keith Moreland has stated that he thinks Russell is pressing. I don't know how much credit to give that based on the discussion here about taking more walks, but he does spend a lot of time around the team and certainly knows baseball and hitting.
I remember early in the season he was hitting balls pretty well in the air, but they just didn't have the distance to get out. Later on, when he wasn't hitting balls deep into the outfield, he really seemed like he was trying to lift the ball. He might have to try to level his swing out and hit more line drives until he starts seeing the ball better.
I recall Russell having a significant hole in his wing, in that he really likes to get his long arms extended. It could be that he isn't seeing as many pitches out over the plate. Are pitchers going after him differently than they did last year? It seems like most teams would have had that scouting report on him, especially late in the year when he continued to hit home runs.
I agree with bz about wanting to have some more in depth stats. Is there even anywhere online that has batting average and those other stats for college baseball?
by ghostoftheplaymaker4 on Mar 25, 2008 6:37 PM CDT 0 recs
Frankly, the case is, he's not the long ball.
Not connecting solidly.
Whiffing too much - if you're a home run hitter you can say, hey, the greats got a lot of Ks. But if you ain't, you just another out.
Too many cold showers?
Pressing too hard - not relaxed.
Sore shoulder.
A loop in his swing, an uneven stroke.
Hmmmmmmm.
by whills on Mar 25, 2008 10:57 PM CDT 0 recs
yeah...
I watched the Oral Roberts game, and I remember he had one really good crack at a ball, and he fouled it straight back. That was the closest he came to making a really good swing. He never connected solidly, like you said.
Why is this? I don't know. Baseball is one of those weird, cerebral sports. I'm still hopefully he'll get out of his funk, though.
by hornbone on
Mar 26, 2008 12:49 AM CDT
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Well, I definitely think he needs a good crack
at the ball.
by whills on
Mar 26, 2008 1:31 AM CDT
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Trying too hard
I've never subscribed to the idea that 'trying too hard' (or 'thinking too much') is a reason for problems at the plate. What matters mentally is concentration. The rest is in the batter's vision, strength, and the mechanics of the swing. In Russell's case, the problem is almost certainly physical
by Caradoc on Mar 26, 2008 1:46 AM CDT 0 recs
Those two characteristics
are both a function of expectations, and a stand-by reference for fans and writers. The logic is if he was trying or thinking/not thinking the right amount, he'd be doing great or at least reasonably better than his present performance. And sometimes this is the case. But usually it is something physical. Sometimes the athlete themselves hide it.
However, a real honest to goodness slump is an entity to itself, a phenomenon that stands apart from the everyday experience by becoming one person's everyday experience at the plate. There's probably been a billion words written about sluggers' slumps, a dark niche in which to vivisect the psyches - and damn near everything else - about hitters great and near great.
The real chase is for the bloodhounds sniffing out the actual source, even though second-guessing is never to be demeaned as an endless source of amusement. Nor is to discount the teenage - or near teenage - male hormone disturbances which can inflict amazing short-term psychic and emotional wounding.
Love is blind and makes hitters fearless. Broken hearts can't fix a swing.
by whills on
Mar 26, 2008 2:44 AM CDT
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Pitching as well
Taking into account that he was so good in previous years there is also the possibility that many of the teams are intentionally "pitching around" Kyle. I know this is less common in college than the pros, but it certainly may happen. The Texas offense is so good this year that pitchers may be taking chances with certain people and intentionally trying to prevent others from hitting. From watching him bat many times, he loves to hit, and pitchers may be trying to draw on that to strike him out from out of the zone. This would show why his strikeouts are similar but the walks go up in comparison, more balls pitched to him are out of the zone.
by Russellatron on Mar 26, 2008 9:04 AM CDT 0 recs
I agree with billyzane..
I think that Russell is doing a good job taking walks but he is fouling off the balls that he would usually hammer. Also, it seems like every time I watch him play he is being fed change-ups, so when he actually gets a fast ball he is a little bit late and fouls it off to the left side.
by vyrexall on Mar 26, 2008 9:44 AM CDT 0 recs













