Morning Coffee Saddles Back Up

by PB @ BON on Apr 1, 2008 8:55 AM CDT in Basketball

Um, now what? With the conclusion of basketball season, this site's two main areas of focus - football and basketball - are officially in offseason hibernation. The 40AS boys will continue to provide outstanding baseball coverage, but it's always a challenge to figure out the best way to fill the remaining space during the offseason. We always find enough to talk about, but believe me, we're open to new ideas. If you've got something you're interested in talking about this offseason, let us know in the comments. Expect the usual - football stat pieces, roster breakdowns, and recruiting updates. But let us know about anything outside that.

NFL Draft update. Scouts, Inc. still lists Limas Sweed as one of the two best receivers in this year's draft (In$ider). Todd McShay grades Oklahoma's Malcolm Kelly slightly ahead of Sweed, but notes that the Texas star is the "more polished" player. Sweed's lingering wrist injury, however, remains a bit of a concern.

Among the 2008 running backs (In$ider), Scouts has Jamaal Charles rated as the fifth best available back, behind (in order) Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, and Felix Jones. In each of the three previous NFL Drafts, at least five running backs have been selected by the end of the second round.

Spring game thoughts. I obviously wasn't able to attend the Spring Game, but I called an old friend whose opinion on these things I value. Along with the good stuff we got in the Diaries here at BON, you might enjoy his take on Saturday's scrimmage:

It was mostly boring, as it always is, but the new format is an improvement over the utterly senseless set up of years past. Still, you know me, I'm a junkie for this stuff, so I had fun watching the kids get out there and compete.

The first thing to know is that I expect tremendous improvement on defense this fall. I love the move of Houston inside, where he's plenty strong and unfairly quick. I think my favorite thing about him is that there's no play he doesn't think he can get to. The motor never quits.

The linebackers will be a team strength this year, God (read: health) willing. I expect the secondary to struggle some, especially in the first two-thirds of the season, but my thinking right now is that this is a back seven that should be the Big 12's best in 2009. Keep an eye on Christian Scott. Once he gets acclimated to the game, he'll stick.

I'm skeptical about the offense. McCoy is a perfectly acceptable quarterback. For SMU. He's merely adequate at Texas. As you've undoubtedly heard, Chiles still looks bad as a passer. His footwork is better, but he can't put the ball where he wants to. When McCoy's quarterbacking, the big question is where the big plays will come from. The offense lacks play makers, and as cheesy as the 'explosives' statistic often sounds, it's a concern for me heading into the year. I like McGee and Foz, but I need to see more before I'm able to get excited about this unit as a whole. This team needs someone to step up and be for it what Jeremy Maclin was for Missouri last year. Without it, we're not going to be too difficult for elite defenses to contain.

Overall, my big thought was: patience for 2009. This can be a very good team in 2008, but the stars seem to be aligning for '09 more than this year. The defense will be the Big 12's best and there's reason to like the offense to evolve over the coming year. Mack's done a great job recruiting the offensive line of late; we'll be improved on the line this year, and great by next.

DJ Augustin, First Team All-American. As mentioned in the Diaries, DJ Augustin was voted a First Team All-American by the Associated Press. Joining him on the first team were unanimous selections Michael Beasley and Tyler Hansbrough, as well as Chris Douglas-Roberts and Kevin Love. More on DJ's decision to turn pro from AW later this morning.

--PB--

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Last season I posted some thoughts on Colt McCoy

and pondered whether or not he has hit the ceiling, so to speak.
I guess I’m not the only one thinking that right now.

Colt is like Chad Pennington or Kurt Warner. They don’t have elite arm strength, so they can’t get the ball down field with accuracy or velocity. A team can’t really stretch the field, even if you have top shelf burners at WRs. Right now Texas is still sorting that. (IMO the WR will work itself out and Texas will be fine). They also perform much better with top talent RBs taking some of the pressure. (see Marshal Faulk, Curtis Martin, JC)

Just like with Penn and Warner, when Colt starts making turnovers his cost vs. benefit begins to go through the roof. Colt is the starting QB, because he has the most experience and knows the offense best. He is a steady hand and has a comfort level orchestrating the offense.
But what occurred last season was a shocking number of turnovers, negative plays and blown opportunities. For all of his gritty scrambles and clutch throws came 5x’ the number of mistakes.

So where does that leave Texas at the QB position? With Colt you either get a QB who turns the ball over, because he’s trying play outside his abilities or you get a rock steady Doug Flutie who will have one or two big throws a season.

If not Colt....who?
Chiles can’t throw and Sherrod only gets to play against walk-ons (apparently looking like James Brown in the process).

Until somebody steps up Texas will win and lose on Colt’s level of play

Cats and dogs sleeping together.

by EYESofBEVO on Apr 1, 2008 9:35 AM CDT 0 recs

Couldn't agree more

I don't know that Chiles or Harris is the answer, but Colt certainly is not. Texas will not compete for a Big XII or MNC with Colt as the starter. This idea of 2009 being some sort of culmination of talent and experience just isn't going to turn out like we want it to unless Colt is pulled out, this year. If he still starts in 09, then clearly we have no chance. If the decision to replace him isn't made until 09, then we will have a QB with little or no experience, meaning we will have little/no chance.

Again, I don't know if we will get a championship with Chiles or Harris, but we should at least give someone with potential a chance. Based simply on Orange/White, I would like to see Harris more. If Chiles can get his throwing a little bit better, then my vote clearly goes for him.

Remember, we all said that VY couldn't throw when he started.

by Texas Our Texas on Apr 1, 2008 10:48 AM CDT up 0 recs

wow

If Colt McCoy was as good as Chad Pennington or Kurt Warner then there would be no concerns. Pennington's been one of the highest rated passers in the NFL since 2000 and Warner (who has plenty of arm strenght btw), has posted several of the most outsatnding seasons in NFL history.

Colt doesnt belong in the same breath as them, even when just talking about arm strenght. His his worse than Pennington's and far far worse than Warner's.

by Blitzburgh on Apr 1, 2008 11:24 AM CDT up 0 recs

Where is Pennington now?

Is he the starter? Pennington has only completed 2-3 full seasons as an actual starter and his passer rating is garbage if you take in to account his number of attempts and the 4-5 bad seasons he has had. In fact his INTs have steadily gone up each year (INT/TD ration almost one to one)and he really only had 2 good years – and his attempts were so low I’m not sure how fair it would be to call him much better than average.

How good were they when Faulk and Martin retired?

Back to my point on Penn and Warner. Without their accuracy and decision making, what is their upside?

Colt is only like them IF he plays like them in their good seasons (see freshman). That was my point. He no longer plays like an efficient field general.
So what is his upside if he can’t be accurate and turns over the ball?

Cats and dogs sleeping together.

by EYESofBEVO on Apr 1, 2008 12:01 PM CDT up 0 recs

chad

Has had serious shoulder problems (rotator cuff), but he's the career leader in completion percentage in NFL history, led the league in QB rating in 2002, the 8th highest yards per attempt among active QBs, the 9th best QB rating in NFL history, and he led the Jets to the playoffs in his first year as a starter, something he would go on to do again several more times. And in 2002, when he had his best year, leading the leagu in rating, completion % (at an astounding 68.9% clip), and threw only 6 picks, Curtis Martin ran for a mere 1094 yards. Hardly other worldly.

His college stats were incredible. Far more yards than Colt will finish with, a 38 TD senior season, big wins against bigname opponents, etc. I guess you just hear the jocks on ESPN say he has a small arm and buy that at face value. Truth is, he was one the better QBs in the game prior to shoulder surgery.

Sorry, Colt McCoy will never be as good as Chad Pennington. He's just as fragile and nowhere near as accurate or the same type of gamer that Chad is.

by Blitzburgh on Apr 1, 2008 1:22 PM CDT up 0 recs

I'm not saying Colt is as good

I'm saying they are the same TYPE of player (substance), in that they must be accurate and make good decisions. They can't rely on athleticism to get by.

That was my point on Colt reaching his ceiling. He isn't a raw athlete waiting to tap his potential.

You are making an argument that never existed in the first place.

Cats and dogs sleeping together.

by EYESofBEVO on Apr 1, 2008 2:48 PM CDT up 0 recs

ok fair enough

Sorry about that. After rereading your post, I see what you''re saying.

I just think that Colt is far inferior at being able to 'manage' games and pick apart defenses with precision and accuracy. He's just not that accurate, he's not nearly as competitively great as Pennington, and like you said, he's not athletic.

So, I'm not sure that he's worthy of being QB at Texas in the post VY era.

by Blitzburgh on Apr 1, 2008 8:07 PM CDT up 0 recs

Who is?

Honestly, after what we saw VY do while he was here aren't more than 3 QBs in college right now that I'd say were acceptable heirs. And really, Tebow is the only one that could be considered worthy.

Colt is what we've got though. And he's had two completely different seasons. In '06 he had an NFL quality OL, 2 NFL starting quality backs (for Denver at least), Sweed and a defense that could scare people. He lit up the Big 12.

In 07, he had JC, moral support from Sweed, and unfortunate defensive play. He blew some games, gutted out some others, and was impressive against inferior competition. Now people are saying that he's not worthy of wearing the UT uni.

The truth is in the middle. He's not capable of winning games by himself, he's not athletically gifted, and he's small enough I'm afraid he'll break on long scrambles.

He's a tough kid though, he works hard, and the offense responds to him. Before the nerve injury in his arm, I never thought his accuracy wasn't good enough for Big 12 football and if he's recovered from that I think he'll be fine. His arm is about as strong as several of the Oklahoma starters in the last decade, and good enough if he doesn't throw against the grain. In a creative offense, with quality around him, he can get us a big 12 championship.

But if we and more importantly, Greg Davis, think he's going to win games by himself like VY, we're in for disappointment. If he's got a good to great supporting cast? If Josh Heupel and Chris Leak won a MNCs, I'm not going to count Colt out.

by learned hand on Apr 2, 2008 6:16 AM CDT up 0 recs

fair enough

Good arguments. I certainly don't hope I'm right, but given our offensive system, a lot will be expected of him and we'll just have to hope and wait to see if he's up for it.

Opposing defenses also have a gigantic bullseye on him, knowing they can tko him over the course of a game with constant pressure. It sure would be nice for him to be able to throw a playaction deep ball or two per game to keep defenses honest. We'll see what Greg Davis has in store.

As for 'not worthy' in the post VY era. I didnt intend to suggest that Colt needed to be as great as VY. I just thought that following him, Texas would be able to land the cream of the crop from around the nation to run our spread offense. I didnt figure we'd have our hopes tied up in a 2A undersized guy who gets pumped up by Kenny Chesney.

by Blitzburgh on Apr 2, 2008 10:36 AM CDT up 0 recs

Its a bum comparison anyway.

Chad - 9 Year NFL Vet
Kurt - 11 Year NFL Vet

Not to mention their College years and in Kurt's case, the CFL.

Lets throw out for a minute, that these are pretty good QBs.

Do you really know enough about a college kid after his Freshman and Sophomore years? Not to mention, throw away last year, and everyone would be teeming with praise.

God Im sick of making this point, maybe one day Ill concede and quit. But we dont know enough about Colt. Why dont we see how his junior year shapes up before we toss him under the bus. Has he really not earned that chance?

I continue to be amazed by how fast a fan base can turn on someone. And by what? An orange and white game? Give me a break. If watching that game changed your opinion on, well anything, I think you should reconsider. Its an exhibition, take it as such.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Apr 1, 2008 12:06 PM CDT up 0 recs

In terms of Texas QBs

I would compare Colt to Robert Brewer, particularly if this were more a running team than a passing one.

Brewer was considered average, average plus taking over the job. No one thought he had much of an arm. He wasn't as big as Colt, but their circumstances were similar: Texas needed a steady QB and he was it. The Horns had a fine defense under Akers; they just needed a steady, reliable offense.

It turns out Brewer was a little better passer than most gave credit but more than anything, he was a damn fine leader and made key plays, particularly the QB draw against Alabama and the Bear in a 12-10 Cotton Bowl victory. He grew into the job. Colt is already that kind of leader; not the dynamic of VY, not a NFL pick, but a strong on-the-field presence nonetheless. He ain't bad, but for us, he ain't Vince.

In a sense, coming into 2006 Texas got stuck in a peculiar situation. The Horns had to go with an inexperienced QB, whether Colt or Sneed, and playing with some strong elements of the 2005 squad, Colt had a great year. The Horns got stuck with a situation of their own making from which there is no easy extraction. Colt had the numbers and anyone coming up from below was going to be severely challenged to make his way as the starter.

When Colt has been injured, no one was ready to step in and take over.

We linger in the shadow of VY and there is no easy way out. I think Sherrod's injury last season was one of the most unfortunate things to happen to the Horns.

The one QB close to stepping in dropped off the charts, and Chiles' QB ambition gained new life. Chiles's a hell of a runner but has not proven to be a solid passer by any stretch of the imagination. And when Gilbert comes in we'll see that most explicitly. What Sherrod's injury did was to seriously complicate the situation and sent us on a wild goose chase for that illusive shadow.

Right now I think Chiles belongs as a RB and/or a slot receiver. That would open up a natural line of succession at QB and strengthen both the RB and WR core and put another play maker on the field. That would give us a strong back-up from what I saw Saturday and more weapons to deploy - and the hard fact is, the more weapons we deploy the better Colt will be and this 2008 team (given a decent OL).

This 2008 team will be somewhat like this year's basketball team; athletic and highly skilled in some positions, with some serious weaknesses which should improve as the season progresses, particularly the back seven and the OL. Like the basketball team, it will be much better the last half than the first, it will push for a BCS berth if injuries are minimum.

And, finally, the Horns will need every weapon in the arsenal at the end. I think the odds are high that a skilled back-up QB will be needed at some point, and if a change is going to occur, that's a natural entre.

This is a long-term chess game and the moves the Horns make now determine much of the end game.

by whills on Apr 1, 2008 1:04 PM CDT up 0 recs

Nobody is turning on him

Where did I say he shouldn't be the starter?
The irony of some of these replies is that the "don’t overreact" crowd is doing just that to my comments.

I never said bench him. I never said we need someone better or start Chiles or start Harris. (please reread)

My comments were merely an evaluation of his performance to-date. Hard to argue with the fact that he has a weak arm (which unless they’ve made advances in stem cell limb grafting, will remain the same) – and it is hard to argue with his mistake prone soph slump.

Saint Colt is the starting QB at a major college football program. If he isn’t playing to an elite level or even playing average, the subject will come up for discussion with fans – even if others don’t like it.

Cats and dogs sleeping together.

by EYESofBEVO on Apr 1, 2008 1:15 PM CDT up 0 recs

Well then

I suppose I just disagree with your evaluation, and suggest that there is not enough data to support a conclusion one way or another yet.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Apr 1, 2008 1:24 PM CDT up 0 recs

maybe a more apt comparison...

Colt is our Danny White. White was actually a very good quarterback, but he wasn't Roger Staubach, and never would be. Colt will never be VY, and unfortunately for him, that's what I think most of us compare him to, consciously or not. And that, coupled with a truly unexpectedly great freshman year, leads to heightened, and ultimately unfulfilled expectation.

I think it's silly to say he will NEVER lead a team to even a conference championship. For one thing, if our goal-line offense was good enough at KState, or if our defense's play had even approached mediocrity, he might have done just that as a freshman (and, completely as an aside, I will go to my grave thinking Selvin(?) scored on the first down play - and that Colt was not in on the fourth down he got hurt on...). I think plenty of quarterbacks who've won championships have not been appreciably better than Colt as far as talent level - assuming here that the O-line will improve and his extra year of experience will help him cut down on egregious mistakes.

Let's face it, to paraphrase Pitino in Boston - VY ain't walking through that door. Chiles could improve his passing by several hundred percent, and still not be VY. VY-redux is just not going to be happening, but... emotionally, I think it's going to take us a few years to adjust to that. Hey, despite Ricky and Jamaal, I still to this day miss Earl Campbell in burnt orange. I just don't slam the guys who aren't him...

Colt, for better and for worse, was a sophomore last year, playing behind an injury-and graduation-depleted O-line. Was his play disappointing after the freshman season he'd had? Absolutely. Does that now mean he is incapable of being a championship-level qb? Depends... He won't be a VY-level championship qb, but check out a list of BCS Championship game qbs - some good ones, certainly, but not a one is VY-level...

Roy Miller - with the possible exception of Barbara Feldon, the best #99 anywhere!!!

by agent orange on Apr 1, 2008 6:16 PM CDT up 0 recs

When is enough?

So you think two years is not enough to make an evaluation on Colt? Ok, when will we have enough? After his third year? Or maybe his fourth year? Can we make an accuate assessment of him then, or will that still be too soon?

As far as throwing away years, that's just dumb. Throwing away a game or two is one thing, but saying we should ignore his whole pathetic season is a die-hard Colt fan's attempt to defend his failures.

Colt has peaked. He is not taking this team anywhere, and someone else needs to get experience leading the Horns. Maybe then we will be able to compete for titles. I'm happy that you are content with mediocrity from this team (which is all we will get from Colt), but I am not. I think it was said best in the original post that Colt would be fine for SMU. We need more here at Texas.

Harris: he's the best option we've got right now.

by Texas Our Texas on Apr 1, 2008 10:03 PM CDT up 0 recs

One thing...

... Say Colt runs the offense for the remainder of his career and we don't win a title (XII or BCS). In what way will that be different from any other year under this staff? Exclude 2005, obviously. I don't think you can say "oh, Colt is the reason we haven't won the XII in four years" when
A.) We haven't won one with not-God at QB anyway, and
B.) We came basically as nearly as we ever have to winning the XII in '06 with Colt (and lost our shot due to an accident).

I think that Colt has shown us what the offense looks like when he plays within himself. Look at the last half of the season, after OU and before A&M the offense was clicking and Colt was not a turnover machine. I wasn't impressed with his triple-fumble performance in the Holiday Bowl, but hopefully Major will straighten him out on trying to do too much.

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Apr 4, 2008 12:48 AM CDT up 0 recs

"But let us know about anything outside that"

How about a daily countdown to football season with a different picture every day?

Houston to DT

I called this last year on the blog, but to give credit where credit is due, Longhorn Person actually told me that was going to happen.

by Wells on Apr 1, 2008 10:08 AM CDT 0 recs

I will bet

anyone on this board a bottle of your choosing (Makers Mark is my personal choice) that before he leaves UT that Colt McCoy will at least play for a Big 12 Championship if not win it. Greg Davis don't bother posting. I will not buy you a bottle of anything but hemlock.

by UTHomeSearch on Apr 1, 2008 12:07 PM CDT 0 recs

i will gladly take you up on that

Any amount you wish to wager I'm down for on the Horns not being in a Big 12 Championship game in the next two years.

by Blitzburgh on Apr 1, 2008 12:37 PM CDT up 0 recs

OU

OU scares me this coming year, like, very scary. Their returning talent and experience on the O-line is frightening. However in 2009 we should have a good shot at it.

Moot point that if we had a goalline defense we would have been playing for it in 2006 under Colt? I guess so.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Apr 1, 2008 1:05 PM CDT up 0 recs

yeah

But Bradford will be a JR in 09 and I'm sure Stoopsy will have the cupboard plenty full by then. When the talent levels are equal, we all know (or at least should by now) who wins in the RRS.

by Blitzburgh on Apr 1, 2008 1:09 PM CDT up 0 recs

Bradford doesnt scare me...

His senior O Line does.

Bradford is fine and all, and he runs that offense pretty darn efficiently, but like many people complain of Colt, I dont think Bradford is the ace playmaker either.

And while I dont think OU will ever be out of it with Stoops there, I think the sooners will start 5 Senior O-lineman this year, with arguably their better TE returning as well.

The line that helped Bradford set the FR record therefore, is just about completely back, again (See Texas 2006).

Ill be happy when that line retires (See Texas 2007).

by BoddickerIsClutch on Apr 1, 2008 1:16 PM CDT up 0 recs

McShay

Latest McShay mock draft (In$ider) has Limas going to San Fran at 29 and Charles going to Arizona at 51.

My adopted kid is pure genius at the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model.

by jc25 on Apr 1, 2008 3:22 PM CDT 0 recs

Chiles

Chiles can move the ball better running ever play, than Colt mixing it up. Ut might need to run a Rich Rodriguez offense with him.

Bradford isn't that good. Ou makes him throw simple slanta passes all the time, and he has a great offensive line. The line will be gone next year. He will regress this year like Colt did.

by Longhorns84 on Apr 2, 2008 9:24 AM CDT 0 recs

I doubt it

I dont think Bradfords an incredible talent, but OU finds a way to disguise what they want to do a little bit better than we do. Teams won't be able to tee off on him and/or bring their safetys up to defend the short stuff knowing that OU won't go deep (as was the case for so much of last year with Colt and our offense).

by Blitzburgh on Apr 2, 2008 10:40 AM CDT up 0 recs