Friday Research Challenge
by Peter Bean on Apr 4, 2008 12:37 PM CDT
in Football
23 comments
Lots of chatter about the 2009 schedule, which looks like it will feature the weakest non-conference schedule at Texas in some time. It's not completely Deloss Dodds' fault, of course, but it is what it is.
As a fan, it's not an exciting slate of games, but there are some who note that with the team potentially peaking in two years, that might not be such a bad thing. Others, including Wells, have argued in the past that it may actually be smart to schedule a weak non-conference schedule, assuming your goal is to get to the BCS Title game.
So, let's take the following premises, and then ask a couple questions:
- Texas will have the talent to contend for the national championship in 2009.
- The non-conference schedule, as it currently stands, is such that one loss will make it very difficult for the team to play for the national title.
Questions:
- Among all the teams undefeated heading into their spot in the BCS Title game, did any feature a cream puff non-conference schedule?
- Have any one-loss teams made the national championship game with a cream puff schedule? (And if so, what were the circumstances of the national standings that allowed it to happen?)
I don't have time to research this today, but maybe one of you does. If so, post away. I'd be eager to see the answers.
--PB--
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To partially answer #2...
Ohio State last year is the obvious example, but then look at Va Tech last year, who got filleted alive by LSU at the beginning of the year and would have made the title game if they hadn't lost to BC on a miracle/choke job. I think that these examples would mean a lot more if they didn't happen during the apocalypse that was last season.
by Horn Brain on Apr 4, 2008 1:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The gist of it
Scheduling really easy means putting all your eggs in one basket - going undefeated. But if Texas does that, they're going to make the national championship game probably 90-95% of the time.
Scheduling a tough OOC schedule makes it easier to make it into the national title game with one loss, but you must remember that if a loss comes in non-conference, they you also have to go undefeated through your entire conference slate, which is very difficult in a good conference.
The trick I think is to schedule OOC easy enough to have a very good chance of getting through undefeated but tough enough that you won't get laughed at if you end up with one loss in conference. Which is what Texas is doing by scheduling a BCS team every year.
by billyzane on Apr 4, 2008 4:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Va. Tech
Va. Tech made it with a pretty weak non-conference schedule in 99-00. Didn't they? Update: I looked it up. James Madinson, UAB, Clemson. Pretty creampuff.
by TheJeezus on Apr 4, 2008 4:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I find it....
...very disappointing that fellow Longhorns are so quick to assume DeLoss Dodds is to blame for this lame scheduling. BTW, I'm no great fan of DeLoss, though I am quite impressed with his coaching hires over the past decade. In the 21 seasons immediately following Darrell Royal's retirement, our Longhorns played 37 (THIRTY SEVEN) ranked opponents in the OOC schedule. That is 1.76 ranked opponents per season.
Suddenly all of that changed. DeLoss was still the AD when that number dropped to a pathetic .40 ranked OOC opponents per season. What changed you ask? That would be Mack Brown's extensive input into the OOC schedule.
- #2 OU
- #1 OU
- #5 Missouri
#3 OU
- #12 OU
- #14 Miami
#10 OU
- #5 Auburn
#8 OU
- #11 Auburn
Penn State
#2 OU
- #2 OU
- #16 OU
- #5 Auburn
#1 OU
- #10 OU
- #14 Colorado
Penn State
#15 OU
- #21 Penn State
#20 Colorado
#4 OU
- #13 Auburn
#6 OU
- #21 MissSt
#9 Syracuse
#16 OU
- #11 Colorado
#6 Syracuse
#24 Louisville
#10 OU
- #4 Colorado
#16 OU
- #21 Notre Dame
#13 OU
#14 Virginia
- #9 Notre Dame
#19 Virginia
Even if you remove OU's 18 appearances on that list, as some argue OU shouldn't count since OU is now a conference opponent, that leaves 19 ranked OOC opponents played over 21 seasons. That equates to an average of .905/season, well over double Mack's average of .40/season!
Does anyone believe that if Mack Brown had an annual rival game against an often-ranked OOC opponent (similar to the OU game), he would intentionally add highly ranked opponents to the OOC schedule, like we've done in the past? If your answer is yes, then contact me as I have some beachfront property in Kansas that might interest you.
Mack's ranked OOC opponents:
- #6 UCLA (game scheduled by John Mackovic)
- None
- None
- None
- None
- None
- None
- #4 Ohio State (scheduled by John Mackovic)
- #1 Ohio State (scheduled by John Mackovic)
- #19 TCU
If we are "Auburned", then what excuse will come from the BoysOfBelmont?
by HornChamps on Apr 4, 2008 4:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
couple of things...
- if Mackovic gets credit for all the ranked games through 2006, maybe he should also get part of the blame for the years before that without any...
- you absolutely have to take the OU games out if you're hoping for this to have any meaning at all...
which leads to:
- something changed in there... now, what could that be? I know, I know, in your world any changes are negative and directly attributable to Mack "The Antichrist" Brown, but let's pretend that's not actually true in this world for a minute. Can you think of anything that changed in the college football world right around that general timeframe? Anything??? Maybe something with initials... BS & C, in some order...
Like it or not, in the current system, exactly this kind of scheduling is rewarded. The ultimate great game to schedule is a BCS conference weakling. That way you can hail your record against "BCS conference opponents" and gloss over the fact that you're usually talking about Ole Miss and not Florida. Whether anyone actually buys that is immaterial - it still insulates you a little from the East-by-Northeast-Generic State games you've also scheduled. The only reason you wouldn't fill your schedule with those is that they have more juice than the directional schools and can insist on a home-and-home, which, as long as you're selling out the crappy directional-school games anyway, just does not make financial sense.
Most polls are not resume-driven. In fact, you could look at the past few years and say that the polls above all else look at uniforms... And our uniform is one that will get votes if we're in the running, even if it comes down to one-loss teams.
I don't like it, and in fact, the whole scheduling thing is one of my main reasons for desiring a fairly inclusive playoff system. But, until that happens, I think you're likely to see a lot more of our recent schedules than our historical ones. And it won't just be us...
I will say though, that it really frosts me to look at an OOC schedule of Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Arkansas, and Rice, and hear Mack say at the spring game that "... this will be our toughest schedule ever!"
by agent orange on Apr 4, 2008 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the mack comment
We're playing Kansas, Mizzou, and OU. They were top 10 teams last year. In addition we get Texas Tech (In Lubbock, probably at night), Okie State (who we usually have a hard time with), TAMU (We've dropped two straight), and at Colorado. Florida Atlantic impressed me in their bowl game; they run a spread option attack. They are no gimme. And Arkansas, yes they've lost their star RB's, but they should still be a middle of the pack SEC team, no pushover. I'll give you UTEP, Baylor, and Rice for sure, but this is no piece of cake schedule if you ask me. It may look bad on paper, but Texas is gonna face a handful of really good teams. Asking for a tough non-conference foe is fun, but the Horns have enough on their plate this season.
by owenh on Apr 4, 2008 8:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
History shows......
Here is a list of every OOC game played during Mack Brown's final 9 seasons at North Carolina.
VMI
(2)Kentucky
(2)Navy
(3)S.Carolina
Miami,(OH)
UConn
Cincinnati
(2)Army
William & Mary
Furman
(2)Ohio
UTEP
(2)Tulane
(2)TCU
SMU
(2)Syracuse
(2)Louisville
Houston
Indiana
Stanford
Oh, and his AD forced him to play an (8-5)USC team in a PigSkin Classic for the money.
.
That, along with his scheduling at Texas, makes for a 20+ year history of scheduling nothing more than cupcakes and tomato cans. The BCS makes for a good "excuse", but history shows the true pattern.
by HornChamps on Apr 5, 2008 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did he schedule Texas while at UNC?
Pretty sure the UNC home and home was to begin a few years after our awesome Sun Bowl victory over the Heels.
by the other Andrew on Apr 5, 2008 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Incredibly.....
.....ironic isn't it? Mack Brown saw enough tomato can in Mackovic's Sun Bowl team (even though we won the matchup), that he immediately started negotiations for a home&home series. It was signed prior to his departure for UT.
It's pretty scary to think a Div.1 HC felt we were bad enough to be included on the list above.
by HornChamps on Apr 5, 2008 8:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It would make sense for
North Carolina to play Texas in that scenario. NC had a very good team, but lacked national respect. Texas was a traditional power, that wasn't playing well. NC had everything to gain and nothing to lose by playing that game, and, it would be a relatively easy win with John the cork-sniffer leading UT.
by Brandon 97 on Apr 9, 2008 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
from http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/byName.htm
OOC opponents, and their records are indicated. I will let you decide what is or is not a creme puff.
1998 Tennessee (13-0) over Florida State (11-2)
Tennessee – Syracuse (8-4), Houston (3-8), Al@Birm (4-7)
Florida State – Texas A&M (11-3), USC (8-5), Miami (9-3), Florida (10-2)
1999 Florida State (12-0) over Virginia Tech (11-1)
Florida State – La Tech (8-3), Miami (9-4), Florida (9-4)
Va. Tech – J. Madison (not div 1), Al@Birm (5-6), Clemson (6-6), Virginia (7-5)
2000 Oklahoma (13-0) over Florida State (11-2)
Ok – UTEP (8-4), Ark. St. (1-10), Rice (3-8)
Fl. St – BYU (6-6), Louisville (9-3), Miami (11-1), Florida (10-3)
2001 Miami (12-0) over Nebraska (11-2)
Miami – Penn St. (5-6), Troy (7-4), Fl. St. (8-4), Washington (8-4)
Neb. – TCU (6-6), Troy (7-4), Notre Dame (5-6), Rice (8-4)
2002 Ohio State (14-0) over Miami (12-1)
OSU – Texas Tech (9-5), Kent (3-9), Washington St. (10-3), Cincinnati (7-7)
Mia – Florida (8-5), Connecticut (6-6), Florida St. (9-5), Tennessee (8-5)
2003 LSU (13-1) over Oklahoma (12-2)
LSU – La. Monroe (1-11), Arizona (2-10), Western Ill. (not div 1), La. Tech (5-7)
Ok – North Texas (9-4), Alabama (4-9), Fresno St. (9-5), UCLA (6-7)
2004 USC (13-0) over Oklahoma (12-1)
USC – Va Tech, Col St., BYU, Notre Dame
Ok – Bowling Green (9-3), Houston (3-8), Oregon (5-6)
2005 Texas (13-0) over USC (12-1)
Texas – Louisiana Lafayette (6-5), Ohio State (10-2), Rice (1-10)
USC – Hawaii (5-7), Arkansas (4-7), Notre Dame (9-3), Fresno St (8-5)
2006 Florida (13-1) over Ohio State (12-1)
FL – S. Miss. (9-5), Cent. Fl. (4-8), W. Carolina. (not div 1), Fl. St. (7-6)
OSU – Northern Ill. (7-6), Texas (10-3), Cincinnati (8-5), Bowling Green (4-8)
2007 LSU (12-2) over Ohio State (11-2)
LSU – Va. Tech (11-3), Mid. Tenn. St. (5-7), Tulane (4-8), La. Tech (5-7)
OSU – Akron (4-8), Washington (4-9), Kent (3-9)
by Brandon 97 on Apr 4, 2008 6:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Florida in '06
had a ridiculously easy non-conference schedule and still made it with 1 loss. Yes, they couldn't have known that FSU would be so bad, but FSU is like OU was for us pre-Big12. It's always going to be there regardless.
Of course, the difference between florida and texas is that florida plays in the SEC while Texas plays in the good but not as strong big 12. Florida's conference schedule can make up for weak OOC scheduling more than Texas' can.
by billyzane on Apr 4, 2008 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are several examples...
Of teams playing for a NC with a weak-ass scghedule (OSU 07, Florida 06, LSU 03 being the most recent ones).
I contend that for a few teams, Texas included, playing a tough OOC schedule makes NO sense. Yes, we might like to see some more compelling games and you could make an argument that playing tougher opponents better prepares your team for conference games. But from a purely "I want the best chance of going undefeated and playing for a NC" perspective, scheduling easy is the way to go for us.
The only way to make sure that we're in the big game is to go undefeated. If we do that, we'll play for the NC, regardless of what else happens. The media bias and poll slant towards Texas and a few other big name programs (probably USC, Ohio St, and a few others) would rule out any chance of getting "Auburned." If you lose a game, then you need help regardless of what your schedule is like. The other component of playing for the NC is starting poll position, which also gives us an advantage over many schools.
The weak-ass schedule might annoy us, but I see the logic in it.
by SaintBevo on Apr 5, 2008 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The teams on there the most
OU and OSU are also the teams that have the weakest out of conference scheduleing (OSU 2006 ~excepted for playing Texas)
by Wells on Apr 5, 2008 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mack's comment.....
Back in 2005 before Texas went to Columbus Mack Brown said, "We (current Texas administration) didn’t schedule this game and we don’t want this game. This was done 10 years ago and if we could get out of it, we would."
by HornChamps on Apr 5, 2008 2:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Do you have a link?
Or is this a paraphrased statement? That's seriously the wimpiest thing to say, especially before you play. After you play and win, maybe that's ok to talk about, but not if you lose, and especially not before the freaking game. If we didn't have Vince, all the players would have thought we were going to lose that game if that's the way Mack talked about it.
Now, before HC thinks he's recruited me, let me make sure to say that I don't think we should fire Mack. Deloss should put some pressure on him to schedule some tougher games, though. Maybe something along the lines of "Schedule a team that the fans want to see us play or I'm scheduling USC."
by Horn Brain on Apr 5, 2008 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's clarify.....
Now, before HC thinks he's recruited me, let me make sure to say that I don't think we should fire Mack. Deloss should put some pressure on him to schedule some tougher games, though. Maybe something along the lines of "Schedule a team that the fans want to see us play or I'm scheduling USC."
.
Well, while we are clarifying positions, let me make sure HB knows that he has never read of HC claiming Mack Brown should be fired. Not once. You're correct that Mack should be forced to play a OOC that is representative of a program that proclaims to "be the Joneses", rather than one that is keeping up with the Joneses.
All other marquee programs are regularly scheduling marquee matchups, while we are left to make excuses. This program is far too good for this "musical chairs" method of scheduling. We schedule our patsies out into the future, holding a slot open, then at the last minute proclaiming all the chairs were full, aka there were no marquee opponents available. Fans are starting to get wise to the kindergarten-like tactic.
by HornChamps on Apr 5, 2008 8:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but...
... where's the link to that quote? Isn't that what I asked?
by Horn Brain on Apr 6, 2008 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comparing schedules
Some fair weather fans and instant experts see fit to complain about our schedules. Here is a sampling of the 2008 schedule.
The marquee matchup is 9/13 Ohio St@ USC. The other teams on the OSU schedule are Youngstown St., Ohio and Troy.
Michigan: Utah, Miami(Ohio), Toledo
Georgia: Central Michigan, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech
Florida: Hawaii, Citadel,Fla St., South Carolina
Tenn: UAB, N. Illinois, but they do have UCLA
LSU: Apalachian St., Troy, North Texas and Tulane
OU: Chattanooga, Cincinnati, TCU and Washington
Auburn: La. Monroe, Tenn-Martin, West Virginia
West Va.: East Carolina, Colorado, Marshall
by 71grad on Apr 6, 2008 5:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Your list is lacking.....
.
Auburn @ W.Virginia
Boston College vs. Notre Dame
Cal vs. Michigan State
Clemson vs. S.Carolina
Colorado @ Florida State
Colorado vs. West Virginia
Florida vs. Miami
Florida @ Florida State
Georgia @ Arizona State
Illinois vs. Missouri
Kansas @ S.Florida
Kansas St. @ Louisville
Louisville vs. Kentucky
Miami @ A&M
Michigan @ Notre Dame
Nebraska vs. VaTech
Ohio State vs. USC
OU @ Washington
Oregon vs. Boise State
USC @ Virginia
USC vs. Notre Dame
Tennessee @ UCLA
Texas vs. Arkansas
by HornChamps on Apr 7, 2008 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We are getting off track here
Those all might be great games, but how many of those teams at the end of the year are going to be playing for a national championship? At most 2.
I have said before, and agree with St. Bevo 100% on this, that there is no reason for Texas to schedule a tough OOC opponent. With the nature of college football, Texas' historically dominant program, and our typically high preseason ranking, the best possible outcome of a tough OOC game is to maintain the status quo. Texas is privileged enough to be one of the few programs that, if they go undefeated, will play for a national championship.
If you are in the Big East or the ACC, then maybe you have to do something extraordinary to get to the BCS title game. But if you are a traditional football school with a decent preseason ranking, going undefeated will pretty much assure you a spot.
by Brandon 97 on Apr 9, 2008 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
re:
I don't get what point you are getting at...everyone of those teams' schedule looks better than ours next year..hell, I'd rather play App. St. than WYOMING!
by vy til i die on Apr 7, 2008 11:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
source
Best source I found for that quote was a scout.com message board.
by ajax77777 on Apr 7, 2008 10:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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