Perhaps I should post this on Music City Miracles instead, but I'm not really a Titans fan, so I'll just dump it here.

Disclaimer:  The below represents a VERY stretched comparison between Vince Young and two recent QB’s he’s often compared to.  You can argue that we shouldn’t compare them, but the fact of the matter is that people do so I decided to look at some numbers to see if I could find any patterns.  Furthermore, Vince has played only two seasons and has only one full year as a starter, further complicating comparisons.  Lastly, I am well aware that one reason people compare them is because of their shared race.  Be that as it may, the reason I’m even going to bother talking about this is because A) They are all considered “mobile” or “dual-threat” quarterbacks, B) Vick and VY, at least, came in with some hype after college, and C) McNair and Vince started off at the same franchise with Jeff Fisher.  Let’s add the fact that McNair is Vince’s mentor.  Those are the reasons, nothing more.  Let’s leave race out of this.

One last note before I move on:  I dislike over-emphasizing statistics when evaluating players, as they can never take into account all aspects of the game.  Nonetheless, they are useful tools for comparison.  End long disclaimer to begin a long post.

Vince Young is currently one of the more divisive players in the NFL.  This is not because of anything he’s really said or done but the fact that he represents an enigma for many football viewers.  Some have sworn adamantly that he will be the ultimate bust, while others have all but guaranteed a Hall of Fame career riddled with Super Bowl victories.  This is not new territory for Vince, as he sparked similar debate at the college level.  There seems to be little middle ground; either you love him or you love to hate him.  Personally, I think the latter have serious self-esteem issues, but that does not necessarily mean their arguments should be quickly dismissed.  So let’s look at some numbers to see if Vince has a shot to make it at the next level.

The obvious criticism is that Vince simply can’t throw, and not only that, he’ll never be able to throw.  Thus, I pulled up the stats of the two recent QB’s he’s most often compared to:  Michael Vick and Steve McNair, and see how they fared in their early years and throughout their careers (for Vick, due to some rather grisly hobbies, it was a short one).

Vick actually had what many consider a fairly good career, minus the dog-fighting, and took his team to the NFC championship game after a thrilling win at Lambeau Field.  McNair also is widely considered to have a successful career, even if he is not HoF material, leading many winning Titan teams and coming within one yard from a potential Super Bowl victory.  Vick in particularly, however, got constantly criticized for his passing, and a small bit of that went against McNair too.  Is Vince any better, and is their any indication that he’ll improve?  Let’s look at some numbers.

Vick’s first year of starting was his second year (he played 8 games his first year and started two of them).  He started fifteen games, and his passing and rushing stats are:

-231/421 (54.9%), 2,936 yds, 7.0 ypa, 16 TD, 8 INT, 33 sacks, 81.6 rating
-113 attempts, 777 yds, 6.9 ypc, 8 TD, 9 fumbles, 6 lost

McNair’s first year of starting did not come until this third year, as he started only six games before that (I believe this year was also Fisher’s first year).  He started all sixteen games, and his numbers are:

-216/415 (52%), 2665 yds, 6.4 ypa, 14 TD, 13 INT, 31 sacks, 70.4 rating
-101 attempts, 674 yds, 6.7 ypc, 8 TD, 16 fumbles, 5 lost

Because Vince started the majority of the games in 2006 (13) and played in all but one (and because I only have two years to choose from anyway), I’ll use that year as his first:

-184/357 (51.5%), 2,199 yds, 6.2 ypa, 12 TD, 13 INT, 25 sacks, 66.7 rating
-83 attempts, 552 yds, 6.7 ypc, 7 TD, 12 fumbles, 3 lost

Again, the comparison is obviously imperfect because this was Vick’s second year and McNair’s third year after they had the luxury of easing in a bit, while Vince was quickly thrown into the fire after the Titans started an abysmal 0-3.  Still, it’s worth looking at.

One thing we can quickly see is that none of these quarterbacks threw for a very good percentage in their first year starting, and in fact, Vick NEVER had a season where he completed at least 60% of his passes.  Vick did do much better in the TD-INT department, with a 2-1 ratio, but he lost the most fumbles.  All three seem fumble prone, which is expected:  The reward for having a mobile QB who can make big plays with his legs comes with the risk of fumbles.  It’s obviously something coaches have to measure. 

The most accurate comparison is probably with McNair, because McNair played under Fisher.  If you know anything about “Fisher-ball,” you know it is an understatement that passing is not meant to be featured.  It’s a pretty old-school style of play, and Fisher’s emphasis on running is probably the reason he seems to prefer mobile QB’s that can open up the run game by their very presence.  With this in mind, it is easy to see why Young’s and McNair’s stats are strikingly similar.  Considering Vince was only a rookie, his team was arguably worse, and that he plays in what many now consider the toughest division in football (the other candidate is the NFC East), it really was impressive that Vince led the Titans to six straight victories and an 8-8 record, the same as McNair’s 1997 team.  Vick’s team went 9-7.

Let’s leap-frog to their second year starting, and for Vick, we’re going to have to skip a year since he got injured and started only 4 games.  Vick’s stats in his second year starting (fourth year overall), after starting fifteen games, are:

-181/321 (56.4%), 2313 yds, 7.2 ypa, 14 TD, 12 INT, 46 sacks, 78.1 rating
-120 rushing attempts, 902 yds, 7.5 ypc, 3 TD, 16 fumbles, 7 lost

 McNair’s stats in his second year starting (also his fourth year overall) are:

-289/492 (58.7%), 3228 yds, 6.6 ypa, 15 TD, 10 INT, 33 sacks, 80.1 rating
-77 attempts, 559 yds, 7.3 ypc, 4 TD’s, 5 fumbles, 2 lost

And Vince’s, with fifteen games started:

-238/382 (62.3%), 2546 yds, 6.7 ypa, 9 TD, 17 INT, 25 sacks, 71.1 rating
-93 attempts, 395 yds, 4.2 ypc, 3 TD, 10 fumbles, 3 lost

Many people may point out that Vince had an injured quad most of the year, which is true.  However, I’m sure Iron Man McNair always had some sort of problem with his body, so I’ll make no excuses for Vince. 

McNair clearly had the superior second year out of all three, although to be fair, it was his fourth year and he was not coming off an injury like Vick.  Still, what makes McNair obviously valuable is his lack of turnovers compared to the others:  He turned the ball over a total of 12 times, compared to Vick’s 19 and Vince’s 20.  Vick in particularly seems the most fumble prone out of the three, which is expected:  Vick is the quickest runner but he’s also the weakest, and he always seemed to be a run first QB as opposed to the other two.  He also suffered the most sacks, which is probably a product of him trying to run a lot and not getting rid of the football.

For VY, all of his passing numbers showed marked improvement except for his TD-INT ratio.  True, anyone who saw the Titans this year knows that this is partially his receivers’ faults, but he is not without blame.  That TD-INT ratio must improve.  In Fisher’s offense, he doesn’t need to throw for a million touchdowns, nor will he have much opportunity to, but something along the lines of McNair’s 15-10 would be just fine. 

The jump in completion percentage is very encouraging (over ten points worth), and easily surpasses Vick and McNair.  This year was, in fact, Vick’s best as far as completion percentage his entire career, which isn’t really a good thing.  McNair didn’t hit the 60% mark until his fourth year starting.  Vince’s completion percentage is fine; he now needs to concentrate on accuracy that allows his receivers to run after the catch.

In any case, with these numbers in mind, and the brute fact that Vince is only entering his third year, I just don’t see why people are so quick to call Vince a bust.  As one can see, his numbers are not by any means especially bad for new, young quarterbacks.  He won the ROY award his rookie year for revitalizing the Titans’ season.  He led his team to a 10-6 record and a playoff berth this season, and if you watched the games, costly turnovers were not all committed by him.  His RB’s fumbled in critical positions and his receivers were responsible for a handful of his picks.  He does not have any gamebreakers on the offensive side of the ball (they are hoping Chris Johnson will fill that role).  Plus, Fisher’s offense is simply not a pass-oriented offense.

One thing I’m confident in is that Vince will become a better passer than Vick.  Vick was a great player, but everything flowed through his legs, including his passing.  Vince seems to genuinely work at becoming a better passer, which Vick never showed.  McNair averaged about 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions a year in his nine years at Tennessee, and Vick averaged much the same in his four full years starting.  That’s honestly all Vince needs to do right now.  I think he’s more than capable of throwing more, but it depends on the offense and his supporting cast.  As it stands, those numbers are the most reasonable. 

If Vince has a career like McNair’s or like Vick’s (without the dogfighting), few could say it was an unsuccessful career, even if it is without a Super Bowl.  Super Bowls are tough things to win, but you want to be in the mix for most years.  I’ll also argue that McNair and Vick had more to work with than Vince has had so far.  Hopefully that is changing, but pretending the Titans would magically win more games with Kerry Collins is just silly.  I’ll throw a bone for Vick here:  In all fairness to him, he never had good receivers save his TE Alge Crumpler, and he had many coaching changes.  Vince has a similar problem at WR.  Still, Vick had the strongest rushing game in the NFL and Crumpler (now with the Titans, incidentally).  Nonetheless, Vince can’t look for excuses:  McNair was able to succeed by being efficient and smart, and in his best year, he threw 24 TD and 7 INT.  That’s what Vince needs to aim for in the passing game: efficiency.  Cut the turnovers, convert key third downs, and lead the team.  Given Tennessee’s offensive philosophy, it is just unreasonable for people to expect gaudy passing stats from VY.

I'm not trying to give him a pass; there's no question he can't have a TD-INT ratio like that if he wants to survive long in the NFL.  However, I think he can and will improve it.  If Vince can get that TD-INT ratio to a respectable amount, then he’ll be just fine.  That’s really the only thing you can knock about his development so far.  Obviously, as a Longhorn I am biased, but looking at the numbers as well as watching the games (many of his critics should try that), I really believe Vince will be a good NFL quarterback.  If you’re within striking distance in the fourth quarter, you always believe you have a chance with Vince Young.  That’s a mark of a special player. 

Will he win multiple Super Bowls?  I have no idea.  But I think he’ll more than earn his keep at the quarterback position.  He’ll most likely never have passing stats like Manning or Brady, but he’ll make plays and lead his team to wins.