From what I gather from "experts" and non-Texas fans alike is that us Longhorns should expect something like a 9-3 or 8-4 season this year.  Given our "rebuilding" status and the toughness of the schedule, most seem to think it is unrealistic for us to leap atop the Big 12, much less the national race.  Our schedule looks like this:

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Florida Atlantic
at UTEP
Arkansas
Rice
at Colorado
Oklahoma
Missouri
Oklahoma State
at Texas Tech
Baylor
at Kansas
Texas A&M

A few thoughts:

-If we drop a non-conference game, it may be a painful season.  We don't have a tough non-conference schedule, with Arkansas being our best opponent.  The Razorbacks are in transition, and they come to Austin, so there's no reason for us to lose one of these.  I'm fairly sure that we'll be 4-0 when we start the Big 12 schedule.

-As has been noted many times before, our Big 12 schedule is a killer.  There's not an "easy" game on here, except for Baylor and possibly OSU.  Colorado will be looking to pounce on us, OU and Mizzou will present the toughest portion of the schedule, we have to go to Lubbock, Kansas wants to prove they belong in the Big 12 elite, and A&M would love to ruin another season for us.

-That being said, there's not a team on the schedule that I think outmatches us in talent.  Texas and OU remain the two most talented teams in the conference, and we are certainly capable of beating every single team that we'll face.  However, that's only talking from the top to bottom; there are teams, like Mizzou, that return more starters from last year.

-I may be mistaken, but I remember when we dropped two straight conference games in '06 there was a lot of talk that it was the first time it ever happened in the MB era (or at least, it was a while before it last happened).  We've done it now twice in a row.  It may be three times in a row this year, with back to back games facing Oklahoma and Missouri.  Mack better prepare his players.

-On Mizzou:  This game will be interesting, to say the least.  If we beat OU, then one could make a legitimate case that we'd be well prepared to face the aerial attack of the Tigers, while a loss to the Sooners will have everyone guessing.  On the other hand, while it's often the frustrating habit of Mack to wait until we've lost to make significant changes, the changes often do come after said loss and thus we may be fired up and ready for Missouri even if we drop the game against OU.  At least we get them ni Austin.

-Teams that can air it out:  OU, Missouri, Tech, Oklahoma State, and Kansas.  We're starting two brand new safeties and our corners besides our starters have not seen significant time.  Small wonder why we have high hopes for the defensive line.  In many ways, this season's success will depend on how well they get to the quarterback without help from blitzers.

-For the time being, it would seem that shoot-out games would not be good for Texas.  But who knows will step up during the season on the offensive side of the ball.

-If we do make the Big 12 title game, we'll most likely be facing a team for the second time (Mizzou, Kansas, Colorado), and it is always tough beating a team twice in the same season (see: '01 Big 12 championship game, the cause for many an attempted suicide for Longhorn fans).  I doubt that Nebraska and K-state will win the North, and we can safely check off Iowa State.

So what's my "realistic" prediction for this year?  On the one hand, I'm going to be patient with this team and the growing pains it will likely endure.  On the other hand, we're Texas, and we don't settle for consolation prizes.  Thus, I predict that our D-line will be sick, we'll have playmakers arise on offense, Colt will have a good year, our secondary grows up and fast, and we beat EVERY SINGLE TEAM on our schedule.

Take that for a "realistic" (which means more or less the same as "homeristic") projection.

Okay, to be 100% honest, I think a realistic aim is to go 10-2 during the season and grab an at-large BCS berth.  But that definitely will not be easy.