FanPost

Burnt Orange finds a way!

This post will deal with some stats that might be of value, but first I want to congratulate Marshevette Hooker and Leo Manzano for making the 2008 Olympic team this afternoon.

Hooker was closing in the 200-meters when she fell a step before the finish line. Fortunately, her forward momentum carried her across the line and she threw her hands out to break the fall. And she won by a hand, maybe a couple of knuckles even. Any way to move the Burnt Orange to Beijing works for me.

Leo started of in the pack with Bernard Lagat, the American record holder and winner of the silver and bronze in prior Olympics, taking the lead early on. Leo moved up behind Lagat and drafted him on the second lap on the backstretch where there was a pretty good wind. Said Ahmed came charging up and there was considerable jostling as the runners moved into the bell lap. However, Manzano stayed with Lagat. Lopez Lomong challenged as the lead runners came out of the final turn, but Lagat and Manzano pulled away from the field and finished 1-2. I think Lomong finished third but I've seen no confirmation on the USTAA/Oregon website yet, nor have they posted times. But Leo beat Alan Webb and that's a hell of an accomplishment.

So, kudos are in order for all the Horns heading to China. Hook 'em. You made us damn proud. Especially you, Leo - your home town is going crazy at the moment.

Note: the finish was Lagat, Manzano, Lomong, with 3:40.37, 3:40.90 and 3:41.0. Alan Webb was fifth. Manzano has run a best of 3:35.30; he ran a 3:37 as a freshman at UT. So he has a real chance to medal even if they drop to to the low 3:30s.

******

Now for a little football, follow me over the jump.

 

There have been earlier posts about how many of the Big 12 teams will be employing various forms of the spread offense. The question I had wasn't really answered: exactly what were the ratios of run to pass did both our ooc opponents and the Big 12 scheduled teams bring to the table, despite the implication and near certainty that they would be passing more.

So, these are the basic ratios of run to pass from last year. We know some of these will be different this coming season - particularly Arkansas - but the rest shouldn't vary by much except maybe A&M. We'll just have to find out what transpires there.

The run/pass state is a standard short-hand term coaches use to assess teams, but it certainly means a little less in this day and age. Complex offenses have altered the starkness of the assessment. For instance, Missouri's ratio last year was 48:52, but in watching them you would say they're a passing team just from the  spread they employ. But as Emory Bellard said, the spread is really a running offense; the pass opens up the field to create open spaces for runners. This is in contrast to the West Coast Offense, where the pass serves in lieu of running. And there are the variants, like Tech, where the run plays a much lesser role.

It's easy for us to make such adjustments in our observations, but for defenses, they must prepare for a 50:50 team all the same; the need to defend the run doesn't diminish despite our observations.

Texas was a running team 55:45 and led the Big 12 in rushing TDs (35 to OU's 34); the difference with OU was in the passing game, where they outscored the Horns 39-22. And OU ran more running plays than Texas, with a 59-41 ratio. While these numbers offer no clue as to actual effectiveness of either attach, the TD ratio does reveal where the real team strength did lie last season.

Of course, Tech led the passing teams with a 24:76 ratio and the TD ratio was almost 1:3. No surprise there.

2007 Football Stats 

School                     Run/Pass plays     R/P TDs     R/P Ratio

Florida Atlantic          465-502                 17/33            48:52

UTEP                          416-440                 20/28            49:51

Arkansas                   625-313                 33/24            67:33

Rice                            383-526                 20/29            42:58  

Colorado                   485-476                 19/22            51:49

Oklahoma                 574-401                 34/39            59:41

Missouri                    530-582                 29/34            48:52

Oklahoma St.           597-386                 30/26            61:39

Texas Tech              246-763                  18/51           24:76

Baylor                       298-560                    5/23            35:65

Kansas                    512-475                  30/36            52:48

Texas A&M              576-376                  31/14            61:39

Texas                      539-435                   35/22           55:45

That Arkansas' numbers will change the most is to be expected. I didn't go look at Louisville's stats, but that will probably be the best indicator of Perino's transformation.

I really did this so we'd have a collected ready reference when we get into more serious discussions and as a ground for our observations and the performance last year. For me, the realization that Mizzou and Kansas balanced their attacks so well gives each a little more respect. The question is if they can maintain it this season. 

The Texas defense Muschamp designs will have to be flexible, but the need to stop the run will not be diminished that much.

 

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