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What Really Grinds My Gears: Pre-Season Polls

The first of what may become a series of posts where I complain about things.  Contain yourselves. -HB

Grindsmygears_medium

These dahn guys stickin' theah polls in yah face...

Texas
Lindy's 8
Athlon 11
Phil Steele 15
SI 13

What the heck are these guys doing?  Lindy's says we're #8, and Phil Steele says we're #15.  Now, these are two of the "most accurate" weathermen in the business, and one of them says bring an umbrella while the other is urging you to stockpile food and head for high ground.  This isn't philosophy, here.  I mean we've got stats and returning starters and coaching changes and historical patterns to base these things on, so why do these guys appear to be waving their arms in the dark trying to catch a bat?

I'll tell you why, because none (translation from the less-hyperbolic "few") of them have defined what the heck it is they're ranking.  The question is:  Is this a power poll or a prediction?  Now, most magazines will tout their accuracy over the past convenient time period, which, if they're comparing to the final AP Poll, means they're calling themselves a predictor.  My complaint is that the same magazines will then talk about their rankings as if they're a power poll, then switch back to talking about how tough someone's schedule is and that's why they're not ranked higher.  From a publication that comes out once a year (most of them), you'd expect a little more precision.

So here's what I'm going to do.  Each week, I'll feed you guys a load of crap in the form of my half-assed stab at the most up-to-date Horn Brain rankings, with a very detailed description of my methodology.  Invariably, since I don't have 3 freakin' months to put these together, I'll have some inconsistencies, which I would certainly encourage you to point out (I won't be this grumpy in the comments section).  You're also welcome to throw up your own Top 25 in the comments if you just find it too different from mine to nitpick (Be warned, if you've never sat down to build your own rankings, it is quite a pain).  I'll see if I can't suck the other authors' lazy butts into this as well.  The goal will be to come up with a very mechanical and precise way to go about putting together a ballot, focusing the controversies inherent in polling into their most basic forms so that they present themselves in separate little packages for our debating pleasure.  We will learn how to think about polls, readers, but we will not learn what to think.  If brainwashing is what you're after, just tune into Herbstreit in December as ESPN convinces you that Ohio State deserves a third shot.

If you're the type that does your homework ahead of time, the first entry in this series will be a pure power poll.  We're ranking football teams in a vacuum.  They do not have schedules, they have only players and coaches.  You rank the 25 best teams.

Oh, and good luck.  It sucks.

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Power Poll?

1. Georgia

Done and done.

by BigTexBD on Aug 11, 2008 7:05 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Crap

I change my vote!! Now that Georgia’s starting LT is out for the year, I think OSU is #1. That is a huge hit for UGA; it could disrupt the whole damn offense.

by BigTexBD on Aug 12, 2008 11:12 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dangit.

That may affect my picks as well. See my other post.

by Horn Brain on Aug 13, 2008 12:01 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

HB complaining about something?!?

I’ll believe it when i see if for the 857th time. until then (and ETA is next week or so), you’re just an adorable little scamp.

by billyzane on Aug 11, 2008 9:59 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Taken with a grain of salt

If you take an average of Lindyh’s and Steele’s you would get close to SI’s ranking.The truth is Texas sells magazines and that’s why we get the raqtings and the covers.It’s a conumdrum the newspaper media says we will have a down year and the magazines say we’er in the MNC hunt.Who’s right?

There are so many “ifs and buts” for this years team we won’t know how they stack up untill Oct.

by TCB Orange Dino on Aug 11, 2008 1:48 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like it HB, but two questions

1) Is this your excuse to get Rock M/SMQ style stat wonky?

2) If this is a “pure” power ranking, that allows the exclusion of an ACC team from the top 10, correct?

by learned hand on Aug 11, 2008 3:22 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re:

1) This is about as non-wonky as I’ll ever get. BCS Breakdown (returning soon) is my wonky-time.

2) You don’t have to rank an ACC team in your Top 25 if you don’t want. Your Top 5 could be OU Texas Missouri Texas Tech Kansas for all I care. No one can gripe at your poll by saying you have too many teams that play each other grouped together, because in a power poll, no one plays anyone else anyway.

by Horn Brain on Aug 11, 2008 4:37 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What's with the Georgia talk?

Moreno is a solid halfback, not a McFadden-like force. Stafford has a world of talent, obviously, but he’s done so little with it, and his receivers have been perennial underachievers (see: Massaquoi, M.). The defense has some great players, but it’s not like they didn’t lose some key studs from last season. Overall, the team hasn’t show it can consistently move the ball, and the defense is great, but not so great that it can win the championship despite the offense. This team has some tools in place to win, but they’ve shown us less than a lot of other teams that return much stronger rosters. There’s no one team that stands out this pre-season, but I think there’s a price point at which there’s a dropoff. After the first 8-9 teams, anyone else has to be kind of a darkhorse. As such, here are the ones I would expect to be in contention, and the ones from which I think the team that answers its questions the best will end up winning the championship:

1. Ohio State. Wells, Robo, Boeckmann, Laurinaitis, Jenkins, etc. make an awesome returning core, and losses of Barton at RT and Gholston at end leave two spots where they might have performance dropoffs. If weak anywhere, it’d be at TE and the safety spots, although they do return both their starting safeties, who are great at moving up in the box against the run (in my opinion, anyway).

2. Mizzou. Yeah, they lost Temple, but he wasn’t a major difference-maker for much of the year anyway, and they have some talent ready to take his place. Mizzou didn’t really figure out how to use Maclin to his full potential until almost halfway from the season, so it’s going to be sick watching him keep defenses (and special teams) on their toes the entire season this time. They lost Rucker, but big deal…Coffman’s the better receiver anyway. They won’t be top-tier on defense, but they’ll be extremely salty (I believe starting ten seniors, one junior, one soph.) good enough to win eleven regular season games and the Big XII championship game, in my opinion. This year, that ought to earn a title game bid.

3. $ewner$. I hate to admit it, but they’re good. Again. I want them to burn, but they’re going to be in contention, unless Bradford suffers a sophomore slump. Now, obviously they won’t finish #3 this season if Mizzou goes to the title game, but I think right now they have to be ranked #3 based on team strength.

4. LSU. This isn’t the same LSU that spanked tOSU last year in the championship game…it’s more like the one that lost two games in the regular season. But they’re still very strong, and have amazing talent throughout the depth chart. I think the stable of backs and receivers will really help whatever greenhorn starts at QB, and of course the front seven and OL are both very strong.

5. USC. Sanchez is out for the early season, but Mustain or another talented contender ought to be able to carry the torch for a few laps, if not win the job permanently. I think they have a peerless back seven, and their young receivers should be ready. If the receivers and running backs play up to half their hype they’ve received the past few years, look out—this could be the #1 team at some point, IMO.

6. Georgia. Stafford is talented, the receivers are serious underachievers, Moreno has some good talent, the lines are strong and big, and the defense is very fast. This team has a lot of questions, but possibly the most potential of anyone.

7. Florida. I think Tebow’s good, but not as awesome as to be able to carry his team. Last season was evidence that a guy can put up awesome stats, lose, and still win the Heisman, as long as he plays for the right team in the right conference. They’ll contend, but it depends largely on whether the receivers are healthier and one of the backs (possibly Moody, blech) steps up to take the bullseye off Tebow’s back.

8. Wisconsin. They’ll grind it, they’ll play much better defense than they did last season, and they’ll have a stronger QB who should’ve started over Donovan last year. Most of all, they’ll run the ball even better than they have the past two seasons.

by burntorangehorn on Aug 11, 2008 7:47 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Scattered points

And some don’t make sense. Tebow has Percy Harvin and I believe Florida is the team to beat in the SEC. Georgia is this year’s sexy pick and LSU will not win at Auburn AND Florida (two hellishly tough road games). However, I predict LSU beats Georgia in Baton Rouge and Florida won’t drop again to Georgia.

Hate to say it. I think if there’s a one-game, winner take all, Florida would be your team.

"Excuse me while I whip this out."

by FreedomDip on Aug 12, 2008 10:19 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, and Texas...

I believe the ‘Horns will be in that next tier, along with Tennessee, Auburn, Illinois, and possibly one or two others. I think the 8-14 range is just fine for Texas this season, although they certainly have the potential to be much higher if they answer the right questions.

by burntorangehorn on Aug 11, 2008 7:50 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Grinds your gears?

I think you just need some lubricant.

by whills on Aug 12, 2008 12:41 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   1 recs

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