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Rankology 101: Preseason Power-Polling

 

Here goes nothing...

I may have mentioned this a few times already, but this is a pure power poll.  It's also based on conjecture and possibly an unnoticeable amount of witchcraft.  What I'm saying is, this is my opinion on the matter, studded with laziness.  Oh, and only my opinion, as all of the other authors have chosen to abstain on principle.

[Updated by Horn Brain, 08/13/08 1:22 PM CDT ]

Horn Brain & Friends Present(s):

Power Pollin'

Horn Brain's picks
Why I don't think I'm an idiot (or comments)
1 Ohio State Actually good this year, but not this good.  Something's wrong with football.
2 Oklahoma Beware the double-letdown BCS CG with tOSU
3 Florida Georgia's troubles are on my mind this time around, lucky you, Gators.
4 Georgia Good: Knowshon, Defensive Line. Bad:  Fulmer Cup, Injuries.
5 USC Not sold on wobble-kneed QB and replacing most of the OL.  "Not sold" means #5.  Don't complain.
6 West Virginia I give them the benefit of the doubt, honestly.  If Stuart can run that offense half as well as RR did, they have one last Big East run left in them.  Then I give the Big East three years.
7 LSU QB will be fine, I worry about replacing Pelini with the buddy system.  Texas Swarm, anyone?
8 Texas Speaking of Texas, I think we will be this good.  Anyone ranking us lower is looking at the schedule.  Shame on you.
9 Auburn New offense, same TT.  They'll be tough again.
10 Missouri I don't think they can beat anyone above them on this list, with the obvious exception of Texas in some embarrassing fashion, since that's how life is.
11 Oregon Bellotti will have the offense running, just give him time.
12 Wisconsin Will be really good at beating Big 10 teams, not much else.
13 Clemson Woops, almost forgot about Tebow Jr.
14 Brigham Young I give them a boost because they'll all be chanting "BCS" really loud at all their games.  That counts for something?
15 South Florida Offense needs to find someone besides Grothe to move the ball before he runs out of teeth.
16 Kansas Not talented enough to go any higher.
17 Illinois Juice will run through the Big 10 again, but I don't think he'll shred anyone with his arm.
18 Penn State Joe Pa wants to spread 'em out.  Worked last time.  Why not?
19 Texas Tech This is how good Tech is.  Plus or minus a couple rankings depending on personnel.
20 Tennessee
"At least we've got Eric Berry."
21 Pittsburgh They have the ... ugh... can't do it... "Not fake" McCoy.
22 Michigan Damn you, they'll be good... on defense.
23 Virginia Tech I hate Frank Beamer, but it's not like his teams aren't usually ok.
24 Alabama Saban has three full mortgages on his soul, which he neglected to tell Satan when purchasing this year's recruiting class.
25 Duke Utah I think they can score.  I'm really tired of ranking teams right now.

Bwamp chicka-bwamp bwow.

Oh, God, that was horrible.  Please attack me in any way you like.  I'll try to reply to all of you and move the rankings around accordingly.  Don't forget to publish your own top 25 in the comments, either.  If you think it was easy, then you did it wrong.

 

Poll
Who has the best college football team?
Florida
21 votes
Georgia
84 votes
Oklahoma
41 votes
Ohio State
47 votes
USC
22 votes
Other
77 votes

292 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 34 comments

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Comments

Display:

rec'd

for the FU instead of UF. Classy.

by jc25 on Aug 13, 2008 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

Horn Brain, I told you I didn’t have time to properly sort out a list of my own right now, but looking over your list, I’ll just note that I find myself in near total agreement.

A few points of departure:

Missouri: I don’t necessarily have a problem with you ranking them 10th, but I disagree strongly with the accompanying comment suggesting they’re not up to beating anyone above them on your list. They look to me good enough that a 12-0 regular season won’t surprise me. I’m not expecting it, but I think they’re good enough.

West Virginia: One of the reasons I abstained is precisely because my being more skeptical than you is so wishy-washy, with a reason approaching something like “negative momentum and distractions” fueling my concern about their ability to succeed. And that’s a damn meaningless statement.

Auburn/Clemson: Flip flop these two on my own preseason hunch ballot.

Rankings I liked: Oregon at #11, Kansas at #16, Texas Tech #19.

Nice post.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Aug 13, 2008 2:44 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Missouri

I don’t think they have a championship caliber defense, which will result in a few losses.

by Longhorns84 on Aug 13, 2008 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll play,

Here’s one put together with an odd mix of baseless assumption and blind fantasy.

1 LSU – Two potentially unrelated facts: You can’t spell Les Miles without two L’s and a Harvard Transfer QB may be the primary starter. But in a year with no clear number one they get my nod…since I have to pick one.

2 Georgia- Playstation national champ lacks on field/off field leadership, left tackle, collective ability to hold liquor. Knowshon is a great RB, but the rest of the offense needs to step up to his level.

3 USC- Great defense and coaching staff. Joe McKnight may be the best compensated football player in California, but the real story of the football season is Mitch Mustain ’s Mom out in LA…especially now that he sits atop the depth chart.

4 Oklahoma- The on field talent to win it all. The coaching staff to lose any given Saturday with a knack for Bowl game ineptitude.

5 Missouri- Experienced Defense, it lacks elite talent but executes well enough. Quality offense with enough star power with Daniel and Maclin to keep the defense being a problem. The Fulmer cup points probably mean they’re headed for a flame out.

6 Ohio St- Great defensive talent, good running game, and a not terrible QB. Looks a lot like the 2002 national champs to me (though Wells>>Clarret), but recent BCS hammerings make me question the coaching staff.

7 Florida- Tebow, Harvin, but who runs the ball (other than Tebow?). Also, who plays
defensive tackle? And though the secondary will improve, I’m not sure the pass rush will.

8 Texas- Great potential, improved coaching staff, but the questions won’t be
answered until they take the field.

9 WVU- Orson Swindle is on to something with the Larry Coker comparison. I see an accelerated decline compared to Coker…we’re talking Holiday Bowl. But I can’t justify dropping them to aid one of the teams below.

10 Auburn- Their offensive line is the bane of first round d-lineman, for both their excellent play and their Olympic level dive routines.

11 Clemson- No amount of on field talent can overcome the Bowden problem.

12 Oregon- A replay of last years team, but without the “best of times, worst of times” QB situation, and a platoon RB group making up for the loss of Stewart

13 Penn State- Excellent defense, quality at skill positions other than QB, but points deducted for questionable QB situation and Paterno(s),

14 USF- A great pass rusher, a quality (if overrated) QB, a good coaching staff.

15 Va. Tech- Frank Beamer continues his campaign against interesting football, eyes victory.

16 Tennessee- A good ground game and defense. Eric frickin’ Berry. But, no one knows how to underachieve quite like Phil Fulmer so this is probably a bit high.

17 Texas Tech- Opposite day version of Va. Tech. If the defense can be Kansas good (as in not exactly good, but fairly solid and consistent) they’re a top 10 team.

18 Wisconsin- Most Fearsome Slayer of unranked teams, armed with a great running game and a questionable defense.

19 Illinois- Lost some talent, but attempted to reload. Juice Williams should improve his complete percentage again, possibly breaking the 60% barrier.

20 BYU- Filling the role as “Non-BCS Team most likely to beat Oklahoma in a bowl game”

21 Michigan- They’ve got EEEEE Barwais, and a competent defense, but the offense is going to hit a painful transition (and transfer) year. Like Texas, this is the first chance they’ve had to overachieve in a long time, and I think they’ll take it.

22 Kansas- Average talent on defense, somewhat above talent on offense, but generally excellent execution. They’ll have a problem when they play a more talented team with an equal ability to execute. Good for being ranked, but not ranked higher.

23 Arizona St.- In remembering the abject humiliation UT laid upon them last season, we forget that ASU was a pretty solid team last year.

24 Alabama- With Nick Saban as master of the dark arts, they’ll do all right. A lot of close games with Bama capable of beating a better team or losing to a worse one.

25 North Carolina- Some team will exceed the modest expectations set for them. Butch Davis and Marvin Austin get my vote, despite the young offensive line, lack of line backer depth, and the only better than average receiving corps. How I justify them over A&M and Pitt comes down to my opinion of the college ability of failed NFL coaches – or baseless speculation. One of those.

by learned hand on Aug 13, 2008 7:31 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

i think it has to be baseless speculation

....due to the fact that Davis has been in the NFL too. I like your 25 though. I also like the quote

20 BYU- Filling the role as "Non-BCS Team most likely to beat Oklahoma in a bowl game"

by vy til i die on Aug 13, 2008 7:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

And you’re correct, there should have been a “relative” before “college ability”. Of the NFL retreads, Davis is my “most likely to not fail” after what he did at Miami.

by learned hand on Aug 13, 2008 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

ou's

secondary will be a weakness for them. I also think the loss of M. Kelly will hurt Bradford.

by Longhorns84 on Aug 13, 2008 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait, what?
LSU – Two potentially unrelated facts: You can’t spell Les Miles without two L’s and a Harvard Transfer QB may be the primary starter

Someone who was enrolled at Harvard has transferred to LSU to play football? I think you want to question his decision making skills. All I have to say is . . .wow.

I like our speed. We’ve got the tools. I’d rather be working with this than a bunch of experienced guys who can’t play.

by 98horn on Aug 13, 2008 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LSU #1?

I like long walks, especially when they are taken by people who annoy me.
~Fred Allen

by Hook'em13 on Aug 13, 2008 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not buying No. 1 LSU

But it’s not as crazy as some think, at least in a power poll. I didn’t rank Arizona State because I don’t think they’ll be appreciably better this year than last, and they couldn’t beat anyone with a pulse last year. Missouri managed to beat Kansas, but was thwomped by OU, despite having two chances at them. If you watch the MU/OU Big 12 CG, you’ll see that OU’s D-line is just as fast as Daniel, and that they completely took his feet out of the equation. I don’t think MU will do well against anyone with freaks in the front seven as long as they rely on Daniel’s legs to any degree. That’s why I don’t expect them to be able to compete with any of the other top 10, save WVU, who I’m basically taking a gamble on actually being that good. Glad to see you agree with me on Oregon. I see them as the threat to USC in the PAC 10 this year, ASU will have trouble fielding a full 11 on offense by the fourth quarter.

by Horn Brain on Aug 13, 2008 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The bottom of the 25

just comes down to which pig you think looks best in lipstick. I took ASU’s good skill position players, matador O-line, and Erickson over others but I’ll readily admit that it’s no more (and possibly less) rational than a Pitt/Utah pick.

LSU- It pains me to have them at #1, but for power poll purposes, my choice comes down to having the best lines of any top 5 team (even Ohio State), fewer off the field questions after RP left, and an embarrassment of skill position riches. But I really don’t see an overwhelming #1, and almost convinced myself of USC and OU (and T. Kyle King made a great case for Georgia until I checked the Fulmer cup standings and they lost their LT.) They’ll miss Pelini as you say, but the new defense is deeper talent wise and will keep the old defensive scheme. The guys calling the plays haven’t shown anything, but the zone heavy scheme is sound so I’d only worry if they fall significantly behind and were required to adjust.

Missouri- Agree to disagree. I remember the game you’re talking about, but on balance I’d expect Missouri to improve from the experience. The danger of relying on a running QB is the odd game where the defense is prepared for it, and until a QB has a game like that, I don’t think he’ll believe that it’s not an option to scramble and buy time. This season, I’ll expect some check down passes and more pocket discipline (and more of a pocket), because it’s not like his runs actually result in much positive yardage. If I’m wrong, then your prediction will probably be quite accurate.

As you probably noted, I agree with most of your picks pretty closely, but I do wonder about the big 10 love – relating to Wisconsin and tOSU – both of which I see as somewhat high. Granted, it’s only 4 spots for tOSU between our polls, but I they had quite a bit of talent last year, why “actually good” this year? And Wisco?

by learned hand on Aug 13, 2008 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

ya I think Mizzous good

but agree about their “ceiling”. When they run into a defense able to chase Daniel down, he struggles.

by owenh on Aug 13, 2008 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Florida....

who runs the ball? E.Moody ran for 111 yards and a 7.9/carry average in their Orange vs. Blue game. I wish we could claim the same for one of our RBs.

Now, 5 ACL repairs in the past few weeks is a concern. I can’t even imagine the whining from our fans if we were to experience something similar. That is an injury problem, not the patchwork of mostly minor stuff we had last year.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Aug 13, 2008 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tech

I think Tech is overrated. Harrell and Crabtree are a legitimate threat, but their defense will get them in the end.

by austin57 on Aug 13, 2008 8:28 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I know

I laugh when sportswriters say something like “The offense is always good, but now they have a defense” WRONG!
Their defense was ok, in the secondary, but you can run the ball down their throat all day long.

by owenh on Aug 13, 2008 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Look again....

Rajon Henley – 4-star* – 6’3”, 266
Brandon Sesay – 4-star* – 6’6”, 278
McKinner Dixon – 4-star* – 6’3”, 275
Chris Perry – 4-star* – 6’3”, 308

Only Henly is a starter. Look for Texas Tech to run an 8-man rotation on that D-Line. We’re not going to “run the ball down their throat all day long.”

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Aug 13, 2008 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Look again...

And they have Leach as head coach. I don’t think the man knows what to do with 4 and 5 star recruits on a D-line. What a waste of talent.

by austin66 on Aug 13, 2008 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

just wondering

Why you dislike Frank Beamer?

by Beergut on Aug 13, 2008 8:52 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I saw him lose two games last year...

... that were completely coaching failures. They took pressure off of Matt Ryan after dominating him the whole game, then they absolutely refused to run the ball against Kansas, despite great success, instead trying to throw on Talib and co. Absolutely the worst coaching job I saw from a big time program last year, including Texas.

by Horn Brain on Aug 13, 2008 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Georgia

has A LOT of baggage.

by Longhorns84 on Aug 13, 2008 9:39 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Auburn #9? Missouri #10??

Auburn is breaking in a new QB and a spread offense, not to mention a new DC (thanks for Muschamp, Tommy). With that uncertainty and schedule, there’s no way they should be ahead of a team with the talent, returning starters, and schedule of Missouri. I’ve been saying this for weeks/month, Missouri will finish the year on top of the Big 12.

1. Georgia – Moreno, Stafford….the one chink could be the preseason rash of injuries.
2. USC – Sanchez’s knee is worrisome, but they say it wasn’t as bad as they thought. The defense is great, and they’ve got very good back-up QBs.
3. Ohio State – Tressel, Beanie, and a solid defense. Not good enough to win it all, but should win the big 10.
4. OU – Should get the benefit of the doubt over Mizzou in the preseason, but Mizzou will finish out ahead of them. The secondary was shaky last year, and they lost safety valves Reggie and Lofton.
5. Mizzou – The defense is poised to turn the corner, the offense is only going to get better.
6. Florida – Injuries in the preseason to key players, plus a defense that will be tested. Did I mention the schedule?
7. WVA – Loaded with talent and playing a favorable schedule.
8. Clemson – Do or die for Tommy.
9. LSU – Look for a similar season to Texas 2006 after the title.
10. Texas – Won 10 games with a horrible defense. The schedule gets much tougher, though. Winning 10 games again will be a tall order.
11. Tex Tech – Will have trouble busting into the top 10 unless they beat Texas.

John Chiles - I'm your foster daddy!

by BMG on Aug 13, 2008 9:55 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Texas Defense

I was channel-surfing last night and ended up on ESPNU. They replayed the 2007 UT-OU game and I caught it in the third quarter. When you watch it live, you are so caught up in the moment that you (or maybe just me) fail to notice a lot of what is good vs. what is happening live (i.e. disaster pending). As I watched it again, removed from the game emotion of just wanting to beat the crap out of OU, I realized that the offense line looked good. I know, they are young, but there is so much promise. Boy, the defense…there was one play when NO ONE was there and the receiver was wide open. Bradford is a very talented QB but he had lots of help from our defense. He landed nine completions in a row during a short period of time.

We will have a tough time staying in the top tier with anything that resembles last year’s defense. OU, Kansas, Missouri and Tech have talented QBs that will pick us apart. A&M’s QB is good, but not the caliber of the others, and look what he did to us.

by austin57 on Aug 13, 2008 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Too much schedule in your decision making.

Remember, we’re not predicting finishes, here. Power Pollin’.

by Horn Brain on Aug 13, 2008 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If OSU beats USC in LA

Then I’ll believe. If they lose and still run the table after that to win another Big 10 title, I’ll still be skeptical.

by TheElusiveShadow on Aug 13, 2008 11:20 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Not buying Michigan

I don’t think Michigan has any business being in the top 25, or even 35. They are lucky they play in the Big Televen, because that offense in the SEC or Big 12 would have trouble scoring more than 2 td’s/game. All games they win this year will be because of their defense. Look at the projected offensive starters at Maize & Blue Nation. This will be another tough year in Ann Arbor.

by BigTexBD on Aug 13, 2008 11:44 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Rather than rank the teams 1-25.....

I will simply give my opinion as to who is potentially overrated and who is underrated.

OVERRATED:

Florida- Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators will struggle in the SEC just like they did last year. I am NOT impressed and they are fo sure no #5.
Kansas- had a year to remember last year, but if I was betting my hard earned income- I will have to wager that the magical thunder will not strike twice in a row.
Clemson- better than Texas? Really? Since when?
Penn State- I know they are ranked fairly low as it is, but I think even lower would be more appropriate. Sometimes it seems as though big schools like Penn St. and the Paterno followers get a decent ranking every year to appease the fans but never seem to accomplish much of anything. It would be nice to see a team like Penn State do well for once, but once again, I wouldn’t count on it.

UNDERRATED:

LSU- I think LSU will be in serious contention to win the SEC. Georgia and Florida will be tough but I think LSU is fo sure better than Florida and has a good chance of beating Georgia as well.
Texas- a tough schedule? yes, but the new coaching staff members could prove the difference in staying ahead of the curve this year. We won’t know until we see them in action, but I’m going to put in all on Colt McCoy. If he does well, we do well.
Oregon- I was sold on some early posts- without a QB controversy, Oregon will do well.
Michigan- forget the loss to Appalachian State- though extremely embarrassing. Michigan looked strong throughout the end of the season last year and won an impressive bowl game. I think they will put a good run together this year.

TEAMS I HOPE ARE OVERRATED:

Oklahoma- obviously
UnlimitedSupplyofCheats- USC
Ohio State- what have you done for me lately

"I asked Darrell Royal, the coach of the Texas Longhorns, why he didn’t recruit me and he said: "Well, Walt, we took a look at you and you weren’t any good.
- Walt Garrison

by 512 on Aug 13, 2008 1:48 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

overrated...or so we hope

I hope OU is overrated, too, but I’m not counting on that. Watching the replay of last year’s game was enlightening for new some thoughts on our offensive line but then I watched Murray (DeMarco) and Bradford again. And Auston English…do I need to go on?

Damn.

by austin66 on Aug 13, 2008 9:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

didn't read all the rankings

but tech looks right. I’m so tired of these polls having so much to do with the bowl games. If a team loses a bowl game they suddenly are supposed to do terrible the next season yet if they win (regardless of opponent) everyone thinks they will do well.

I don’t have a lot of hope for Tech this year. I don’t see them winning in Norman. They might not even win in College Station (that’s a big if). I don’t remember all of their schedule but their defense is extremely unknown. I hate Leach although he can run one hell of a passing game. He would be a great OC for a pass happy team but they need a HC who isn’t a moron and can actually coach defense.

by carsondude on Aug 13, 2008 2:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The Sugar bowl glow has worn off for Georgia

Maybe the offseason’s length has skewed me, but Hawaii just wasnt that good. Georgia had some horrible games last year (tennessee?). Moreno was their spark, but their momentum is totally sapped. And I don’t like Stafford whatever his draft stock is. A typical stafford game is 1TD, 110 yds, a pick every other game. Please, hardly elite. The defense is good I guess. I think they finish 2nd in their division, behind Florida or UT.

by owenh on Aug 13, 2008 2:25 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Georgia's problem

Road schedule: at Arizona State, at LSU, at Auburn — plus Florida at a neutral site.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Aug 14, 2008 3:49 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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