Revisiting The 2006 Recruiting Class
Bumped from the Fan Posts.
What can you expect from a consensus national top-five recruiting haul? Sadly, not as much as you think, at least if you use the Longhorns’ 2006 signing list as evidence.
Just weeks after Vince Young keyed a 15-point fourth-quarter comeback over USC that brought the BCS title to Austin, Mack Brown & staff put together the kind of class that seemed to assure future BCS bowl appearances. That class, led by Sergio Kindle, Eddie Jones, Vondrell McGee, Jevan Snead, Lamarr Houston and Chykie Brown, was regarded as the best Brown had signed since 2002 and maybe his second-best ever. It was ranked third nationally by Scout, fifth by Rivals. Several future stars, a batch of future starters, seemed a good bet.
And in the next two seasons, the class of 2006 went on to produce, uh, one starter – Houston, who stepped in when both starting defensive ends went down to injury last fall.
This discussion can begin with numbers, say, 6 . . . 4 . . . 12. In order, that’s the number of players from the Class of ’06 who are no longer in the program; the number who might reasonably be projected as starters entering 2008; and the number still around who have made virtually no impact 2½ years after signing.
The original class numbered 25. Nineteen remain. Nine players got on the field as true freshmen, but three of those were gone before the 2007 season started.
Houston started 11 games in 2007. Now a defensive tackle, he is the most established player in the class. McGee at running back, Kindle at linebacker and CB Deon Beasley enter August as starters. A few others (Jones at DE, Brown at CB, LB Jared Norton) will certainly play a lot and Norton might start.
So what happened? Well, it’s kinda ugly, but here goes.
Gone. Gone. Gone (6) Snead, a Top 100 player nationally, jumped ship for Mississippi before the 2006 season was over. Two offensive linemen, J’Marcus Webb (another national Top 100) and Roy Watts were academic casualties. Discipline issues KO’d safety Robert Joseph (he’d probably be a starter) and RB James Henry. DL Brian Ellis left the program this summer.
Still around, but . . . (6) WRs Phillip Payne and Montre Webber, both Top 20 prospects in the state, have yet to catch a pass. OG Steve Moore is probably a third-teamer and, with just one senior on the ’08 offensive line, not likely to go much higher. Josh Marshall switched from WR to TE last season; he’s made no impact yet. LB Dustin Earnest and FB Antwan Cobb are somewhere deep in the depth chart, though Cobb scored in the ’07 opener and had five carries in a game later on.
Making some impact (6) Sherrod Harris may be next-in-line at QB if John Chiles (Class of ’07) becomes a multiple-position threat. Hunter Lawrence has kicked off since the midway point of the ‘06 season. Ben Alexander got into five games in ’06 as a true freshman, nine last year. Given the depth issue at DT, he’s a key for ’08. Brown, the No. 6 player in Texas coming out of high school, played on special teams last season and looks like a backup corner entering ’08. Deep snapper Greg Smith and OG Britt Mitchell, both tight ends until a year ago, chipped in last season but do not appear to be part of the eight- or nine-man offensive line rotation.
Starters, or heading that way (7) Houston we’ve discussed, and he might be the most talked-about member of the class before long. Kindle seems to be only good health and some field time from showing why he was the best HS player in the state in 2005. McGee is the presumed starter at tailback; his ’07 showing was impressive, though limited mostly to short-yardage and between-the-tackles assignments. Beasley has started two games in two years and looks like a talent waiting to bloom at a critical spot. Jones, who played a good bit in ’07 (partly because of injuries), and Norton, who has been held back by ailments, figure as top-level subs whose impact will be felt. But Houston, Kindle, Norton and Beasley did not redshirt so their careers are halfway spent. Buck Burnette made one start in ’07 and enters this season as Chris Hall’s backup at center.
That’s the story. Or maybe that’s just the early chapters. But given the attrition and the many developmental failures, you wonder if the Class of 2006 won’t be more remembered for misses than hits.
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A partial explanation for why members of this class have not seen the field more often is Mack’s (or Davis’s?) penchant for starting experience over skill. Thus Killebrew, Bobino, and Derry started for us, while other teams might have given Kindle and Norton more time. We started Palmer and Foster over Beasley and Brown. When Charles was struggling to avoid fumbles, Mack and Davis didn’t give McGee a chance (other than red-zone and second-string situations). These players - Kindle, Norton, Beasley, Brown, and McGee - have for the most part lived up to fans’ expectations when on the field; if the ‘06 class is a disappointment in hindsight, much of the blame should go to the coaches.
by mikey 4 on Aug 4, 2008 7:12 AM CDT 0 recs
Ch. Brown
I have no problem with Palmer and Foster starting over Ch. Brown last year. There is a reason he saw very little playing time as he seemed to be completely lost when he was on the field. Same with Curtis Brown. Hopefully having Akina back to focus mainly on the DB’s this year, one of them will make the M. Huff/C. Griffin type leap.
by Horncasting on
Aug 4, 2008 10:05 AM CDT
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great post
I’m a big fan of potential over performance, but this is a great example of why waiting for next year doesn’t always pan out. For example, everyone jumps all over Kindle for his top 10 HS ranking and his penchant for making the absolutely sick tackle, but until he shows consistent, plus performance on the field, that potential is all we’re ever hanging on to.
by jc25 on Aug 4, 2008 8:03 AM CDT 0 recs
Mack hasnt had a truly good recruiting class since...
2002. and its starting to show a bit.
He has placed too much emphasis on identifying whom he believes are top recruits early, then finishing his class sometime around 1 May.
He also has a willingness to offer recruits who have not business getting an offer from Texas so early in the season, purely because they will committ(see Wilcoxin, Moore).
by K2HMFIC on Aug 4, 2008 9:01 AM CDT 0 recs
your crazy
Mack is one of the best recruiters in the country. He has a good class every year, and a GREAT class every other year.
by Longhorns84 on
Aug 4, 2008 2:17 PM CDT
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As '84 notes
By just about every measure available – including NFL draft picks, All-Americans to scouting service rankings, and player post season awards – Mack Brown has few peers.
Whether the team has played to their level of talent, or properly developed that talent, is different debate but I don’t think one could make the argument that incoming players aren’t top quality.
by learned hand on
Aug 4, 2008 4:13 PM CDT
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yes, but....
not quite as good as USC or Florida or (perhaps) LSU or even Oklahoma. still, not too shabby….
by brentmcd on
Aug 4, 2008 6:03 PM CDT
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USC
recruits better than anyone, but Florida and LSU really haven’t been better or as good until recently. OU goes back in forth with Texas every other year.
by Longhorns84 on
Aug 4, 2008 6:10 PM CDT
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well, to be fair
I think it is somewhat disingenuous to mention that this was the class signed right after y’all won the ‘06 Rose Bowl, simply b/c I believe the vast majority of this class was committed before that game ever happened.
The true impact of the national championship was in the ‘07 signing class, imo.
Regarding Payne, he is only a redshirt sophomore. I think you’ll see if he can help you this season. By their third season, you should know if a player will be a cog in the machine or not. I watched him in HS and remember thnking that he was very solid, but not incredible.
by Beergut on Aug 4, 2008 9:58 AM CDT 0 recs
You've got that right Beergut...
The impact was with the ‘07 class not ‘06 as far as the bounce you get from the MNC. I remember ESPN’s talking heads talking about that very thing right after we won, and speculating how Mack, being the recruiter he is would take advantage of the windfall from the National Championship.
Great analysis though on the ‘06 class edsp... kudos to you.
1 Peter 2:17
by HornsFan87 on
Aug 7, 2008 9:27 AM CDT
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makes you wonder
why everybody jizzes all over themselves every recruiting season. So many so-called great recruiting classes (Top 10s) and only one conference title. Oh, and only three Big 12 title game appearances in that same time frame
"Excuse me while I whip this out."
by FreedomDip on Aug 4, 2008 10:33 AM CDT 0 recs
Put it in perspective, the class has been adequate
You can’t really consider Texas’ 2006 class without comparing how our class and players have performed against those of other teams. Rivals ranked Texas’ class as the 5th in the nation with 2 five star players (Kindle and Eddie Jones) and several four star guys such as Beasley, Houston, Snead, McGee, Burnette, Norton, Webb, Curtis Brown, and Robert Joseph.
The rest of the notable classes in the top 10 for ‘06 were as follows:
USC – Class had 27 players and included several 4 and five 5 star players. Some names that stick out are Staphon Johnson, Vidal Hazleton, CJ Gable, David Ausberry, Taylor Mays, Shareece Wright. This class also lost Emanuel Moody via transfer. All-in-all 5 players from this class are either starters or are expected to be big contributors.
Florida – 27 players. Class included Tebow, Harvin, Spikes, Fayson, & Dustin Doe which are all who are projected to be big contributors this year. Huge contributions from this class in key positions
FSU – This class and previous have been pretty underperforming.
Georgia – 28 players. Class included Knowshon Moreno, Matt Stafford, Prince Miller, Asher Allen, Reshad Jones among others. Once again, key positions make this class seem over-performing.
LSU – 26 players with 6 to 8 of them expected to be starters/key contributors. Not a whole lot of big names out of this class though.
OU- 28 players. Gerald McCoy, Greshman, DeMarco Murray, Bradford, Beal, etc etc. Huge production from these guys up and down the roster.
and now Texas:
25 players the likes of which included Kindle, Beasley, Houston, McGee, Jones, Burnette, and Curtis Brown. None of these guys outside of McGee really plays a position that garners a ton of notoriety but most of them are expected to play significant roles this year. However, while the contributions so far have been solid to good, we haven’t gotten the standout performances that other teams listed above have out of similarly recruited players. Unfortunately some of this is due to the fact that we’ve had Snead, Webb, and Joseph depart from the team. Keep in mind that out of the top 10, Texas had one of the smaller classes.
While OU, Georgia, Florida, and to a lesser extent USC found some true studs, others in the top 10 from that year (PSU, FSU, LSU, Notre Dame) have not had nearly the amount of success and standout performances that their rankings have suggested. Thus, Texas’ class ranking for ‘06 is about par for the course.
Looking back at individual players, the 4 and 5 stars we’re distributed pretty accurately and you would be hard pressed to find more than a handful of top 100 players that have not panned out. If you cast a bigger net, like the top 250 though which includes may 3 star guys you start to see where the classes with depth really differentiate themselves finding guys who should have been 4 or 5 stars (Bradford is a perfect example). Most scouts (including ones that I’ve talked to) have said that their is no difference between a 4 and 5 star recuit based on their high school career, with 3 star guys you have do your homework.
Hindsight is 20/20 and it would have been great if we could have done somethings differently, however the class did replace some great talent with some pretty good potential. I wouldn’t rule this class as a failure or underperforming just yet. 2008 will decide that.
John Chiles - I'm your foster daddy!
by BMG on Aug 4, 2008 12:32 PM CDT 4 recs
to BMG
Your comments on ‘06 signings are EXACTLY what I was trying to get from readers . . . some perspective, some awareness of the silliness of recruiting rankings, a look at how other schools have fared.
Your points about the “key positions” are right on target; Texas’ class was longest on defensive personnel, and two of the best on the offensive side, Snead and Webb, were one-and-done cases. . . . Still, given the small signing list in 2005 (15, five already gone) and the flubs of 2004 (almost too numerous to mention, but some of them were named Jeremy Campbell, Myron Hardy, Greg Dolan, Raymonce Taylor and George Walker), the contributions from the ‘06 class needed to be substantial, numerous and promptly delivered. To date, that has not happened.
by edsp on
Aug 4, 2008 2:15 PM CDT
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edsp
While the rankings are not 100% “accurate”, they are a decent predictor of the top classes. When you get into determining the order of the top 5 or the top 10, its mostly an imperfect assessment similar to pulling numbers out of your ass. But I think you would be hardpressed to make the assertion that their is no discernable difference between a classes 1 through 5 and classes 20 through 25.
Now back to the 2006 class. You referenced the 2005 class, and while it was small, pound-for-pound there was (and continues to be) a huge contribution from this class. With a limited number of spots on the field, and contributions still being made by 2004 recruits at other redshirts the 2006 class doesn’t have a ton of experience under its belt. This is at least part of the reason why the 2006 class hasn’t put up the numbers. I agree, 2008 is the make or break year for this class.
John Chiles - I'm your foster daddy!
by BMG on
Aug 4, 2008 2:54 PM CDT
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V. McGee
McGee is the presumed starter at tailback; his ’07 showing was impressiveI was beginning to come around to feeling ok about our running game until I went back and looked at his numbers from last year. His ypc last year was 4.0 (I know it was skewed by short-yardage carries, but still) and his performance in the game where he got significant carries was a disappointing 24 carries for 54 years.
by Horncasting on Aug 4, 2008 1:24 PM CDT 0 recs
his performance in the game where he got significant carries was a disappointing 24 carries for 54 years.
...that’s a lot of running
by vy til i die on
Aug 4, 2008 1:32 PM CDT
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FOZZY
don’t forget about him, and McGee will be fine.
by Longhorns84 on
Aug 4, 2008 2:19 PM CDT
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FOZZY
Another unproven commodity. I hope they are both great but right now we really have no idea.
by Horncasting on
Aug 4, 2008 4:03 PM CDT
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INJURIES
can make or break teams. The past two years, injuries have really kil
led Texas. Texas has great talent, but they have to stay healthy. In 2005, they stayed healthy and won a championship. I also think early departures to the NFL are hurting Texas a little, but not more than injuries. If Texas stays healthy the next few years, championships should come. Every other year Texas has a GREAT recuiting class. The class this year should be in the top five.
by Longhorns84 on Aug 4, 2008 2:14 PM CDT 0 recs
*NOTE*
In 2005, most of the starters only played one half every game because they had such big leads (another reason stats don’t matter in college football).
by Longhorns84 on
Aug 4, 2008 2:22 PM CDT
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Ixnay on OU, Kansas, OSU and aTm.
The first half of the season that was pretty true, the second half, not so much.
by whills on
Aug 4, 2008 2:27 PM CDT
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Kansas..
didn’t Texas have a 40+ lead at half time? zi’m not sure when the starters came out though.
by Longhorns84 on
Aug 4, 2008 6:31 PM CDT
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You're right: I was thinking of the '04 game.
For some reason I can’t remember, I missed seeing the Kansas game in ‘05 and it’s just a blank space for me. So, ‘04 just moves up. Seems fair to me.
OTOH you can add in tOSU as another where the starters were there until the end.
by whills on
Aug 5, 2008 12:26 AM CDT
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Just registering my disagreement
that “stats don’t matter in college football.”
You take the stats away, you’re left with nothing but subjective opinion. You want to adjust them, qualify them, whatever, but if you drop the stats entirely you’re left with Colin Cowherd style garbage.
by learned hand on
Aug 4, 2008 2:57 PM CDT
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well..
If you go by stats, then Tech produces the best qb i the nation every year (joke)
by Longhorns84 on
Aug 4, 2008 6:08 PM CDT
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Hence the need to qualify statistics.
Of course some stats will be vary by coaching scheme, or opponent. That is the nature of statistical tracking of a complicated system like college football.
Using your apt example, one could erroneously say that each year Tech produces the best quarterback based on the passing data, or one could more accurately say that regardless of current personnel, Tech typically produces an offensive system capable of 5000 yards passing and 30+ points per game. Once you’ve established a mean for the Tech, you’re able to more readily differentiate between players in the system, say between a Sonny Crumbie and Graham Harrell, or between a player in the system and one outside.
Further, full view of the stats note that on average a Tech passer may get almost double the attempts per game of a player at Texas, Oklahoma, or Missouri. Based on the total passes number, one may produce a not unreasonable extrapolation of their relative effectiveness per attempt.
That is not to say that stats are always accurate, they can be misleading or misapplied, even unknowingly. But they provide evidence beyond personal opinions and a starting point for analysis and explanation. Otherwise, how else would you effectively argue that Tech doesn’t produce the best QB in the nation every year?
by learned hand on
Aug 4, 2008 6:31 PM CDT
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Crabtree
Hit those projections pretty darn close.
by BoddickerIsClutch on
Aug 5, 2008 4:09 PM CDT
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Great read BZ, thanks for the heads up.
Hopefully your “allegedly weekly’” column will resume as the season adds substance for dialogue.
To the ultimate thesis, I ran a standard deviation above the mean exercise for Tech QB’s P.E., yards per attempt and comp % based on the final season numbers. Harrel was over one deviation in P.E. and comp %, and just inside of one deviation for yards per attempt. Notably a cut above, but not quite extraordinary so, last season.
More strikingly, the same exercise on Tech receivers for catches, total yards and touchdowns shows Crabtree over two standard deviations above the mean in each category. In pirate lingo, he is the equivalent of the “Queen Anne’s Revenge”.
by learned hand on
Aug 5, 2008 5:34 PM CDT
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Compared to the long term standard
this is below average with a 12-13 split at this point. I agree this analysis points out the lack of upper level player productivity pushes the average down but another year could change that, perhaps dramatically so.
The standard for any recruiting class is a third are unproductive and leave or don’t play for whatever reason; a third wind up contributing squad members (special teamers, back-ups for the most part): and a third are big time contributors, your starters and producers.
By that old standard, Texas should project 8 in each of the tiers, with a +1 kicker (definitely Joseph, who took down another recruit with him, both probably starters). So, make it 9, 8, 8 (staggered to the bottom). What this really indicates is that those players need to be on the field this year.
One of the caveats of this break (and any, really) is that recruiting a glut of players at any position can change the dynamics of deploying your class, just as not recruiting enough can cause a drought at certain spots (i.e., QB or OT or DT). It’s hardly an exact science and probably closer to farming than anything else due to so many possible “complicating” factors.
And there are logjams when you have several outstanding players in key positions that, in essence, block the normal upward progression for your recruits. I can’t remember the year, perhaps 2003-4, when OU had such a situation and wound up with some 45 red-shirted players who couldn’t barely make the field because the on-field players were so good. Players left the team at a high rate and OU would suffer for that (to some extend).
I’d like to think the Horns have a lot of talent just waiting to explode but we can’t know that until those players get comfortable on the field, which takes a couple of games. A one-game debut in the fourth quarter may be good for the first-time jitters, but after that they need to be in when the game is somewhat on the line. This is where Texas has been incredibly conservative the last few years.
The last, which 84 just posted above, is that injuries can change some of these dynamics.
{BTW that tropical storm, if it continues on course, could KO outside practice on Wednesday, to plan accordingly.}
by whills on Aug 4, 2008 2:25 PM CDT 0 recs
upon second glance...
Looking at this, I can’t help but be disappointed with how the class really has panned out thus far.
by BigTexBD on Aug 5, 2008 5:15 PM CDT 0 recs











