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Texas Tailbacks Enter Critical Period

Following the requisite initial Ooooh-ing and Ahhhh-ing for Fozzy Whittaker's exciting debut Saturday in El Paso, talk has now turned to what this means for Cerberus heading forward:

  • Over at Orangebloods, Chip Brown has a feature-length story on the Texas tailback trio ($) of Whittaker, Vondrell McGee, and Chris Ogbonnaya. Chip points out the coaching staff's repeated assertions the past six months that the player "with the hot hand" will play, and concludes: "The coaches have said they will play the guy with the hot hand. Whittaker is it. Period."
  • Following Tuesday's practice, Fozzy spoke with the media and shot down probes about tension among the tailbacks. "We all get along very well. We hang out at each other's houses... and all have a good sense of friendship with each other." In the same Chip Brown article as above, Colt McCoy paints a similar picture: "It goes back to the very first meeting. We knew there was potential for a problem there. The first speech from Greg Davis was, 'Bring gold home for Texas. Whatever you can do to help this team, do it.' I think that chemistry is a big reason we've been successful early."
  • Finally, as mentioned yesterday by Big Roy, the man making the big decisions--Greg Davis--is equivocating, naming all three tailbacks starters. "We looked at the depth chart and started doing that before all the injury reports arrived, but all three of them are going to play. I think that we've got three real good backs. They all bring different things."

Add it all up and what do you get? Computer error. More data needed. It's too soon to say definitively much of anything, except, I'd argue:

 

  1. To whatever extent you agree with me that the 2006 and '07 Longhorns appeared to lack something in the intangible phase of the gam--call it "team chemistry"--the early signs from this year's group are markedly better in that department. From Muschamp's intensity to the youth movement on both sides of the ball to the tailbacks' solidarity: This looks and feels like more of a Team. In football, I think that matters.
  2. As the stiffness of competition ratchets up, improvement from the running game as a whole is essential. Especially with the deep passing game a lingering question mark, Colt McCoy is going to need more help. Consider Texas' top six rushers by their stats alone:


    Attempts Yards Average TDs
    Player A 16 116 7.3 1
    Player B 18 83 4.5 1
    Player C 12 76 6.0 0
    Player D 15 57 3.7 2
    Player E 5 18 3.4 0
    Player F 6 14 1.3 0
    Team Total
    77 373
    4.6
    4

Texas' leading rusher in terms of yardage and yards per carry on the season is...

Star-divide

Colt McCoy? Believe it:

A = Colt McCoy
B = Vondrell McGee
C = Fozzy Whittaker
D = Cody Johnson
E = Chris Ogbonnaya
F = John Chiles

The sample size (two games against Texas' two weakest opponents) demands caution, but without going crazy, several issues stand out:

  1. John Chiles is appropriately slotted in line 'F,' which is how we'd have to grade his rushing production this season. Greg Davis is either disinterested in meaningful Chiles incorporation or, let's hope, slow playing his hand.
  2. Colt McCoy not only deserves credit for playmaking ability with his feet, his mobility is oftentimes the key factor in a successful play. With that said, if Texas finds itself leaning heavily on McCoy's feet to make things work during conference play... Dagger. Heart. (Ours)
  3. It's on Greg Davis and RB Coach Major Applewhite to answer sooner rather than later the question, "What is Vondrell McGee's ceiling in this offense?" And if the answer is the 4.0-4.5 yards per carry tailback we've seen in his first 90-some career carries, a corresponding switch to more I-Formation (not gonna happen) or as much Fozzy as his body can handle should follow. Use McGee where his talents will shine; sideline him where they won't.

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Comments

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TB and chemistry

I’m not too worried about TB this season. Ogbonnaya seems like an outstanding 3rd and long TB. Cody seems like an outstanding 3rd and short TB. Fozzy is talented and shifty and Vondrell hits the hole quick with power. I’d like to see fozzy and vondrell in the game at the same time (some of the time), Vondrell at TB and Fozzy in the slot. I much prefer to use Fozzy in space rather than pounding through the line. Vondrell serves a useful purpose in running for a reliable 4 or 5 YPC. I agree that vondrell would look good in the I and now that we have Cody at FB, I expect GD to spring that formation the first time he really, really needs it. Vondrell and Fozzy are complementary.

Colt really runs draws well and rolls out well (especially the hard part of actually passing accurately on the run) but I would prefer not to rely on him on the QB zone read run. That is where he runs least effectively and absorbs the most punishment. Much better to have him run in a broken field situation.

It is hard to know about team chemistry. chiles was obviously very unhappy when he played at UTEP.

by Kafka on Sep 10, 2008 11:31 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Agree

The throwing on the run is a boon to the offense. Set running plays… not so much.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Sep 10, 2008 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I share your state of mind, Kafka

I suspect they’re gonna have to roll out Chiles pretty quick. Half of the ooc games are over; not much time left to work things out.

Although I will say that having Chiles just manage the game is of great value as the second string QB, his chosen position at this point. If he wanted to be on the field more, he could have gone with WR/slot. I think the point of his play in the UTEP game was much more about live recognition (of especially unusual defensive formations) that superseded having him run with the ball. That experience is a must-have for a QB, and I suspect one of Chiles’ weakest points as QB. He may not have enjoyed it but Team Longhorn needs him to be effective as the back-up.

by whills on Sep 10, 2008 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Chiles

Chiles’ weakest point is definitely lack of experience as a QB, especially during real games. With Colt set at QB for another two years, Chiles is not going to get much experience until his senior year. Even then he is going to have to be out rs frosh Gilbert. Gilbert throws the ball extremely accurately and makes all the throws right on the money (even the 50 yard deep ball). There is a pretty good chance that Chiles is not going to make too many starts for the horns at QB.

Chiles needs to have a backup plan for playing in the NFL. He knows, from personal experience, that it is difficult to learn how to be a college QB without having much high school experience. Presumably it is even tougher to learn how to be an NFL QB without much college experience at QB.

A good backup plan would be for him to really focus on learning the WR position just in case that turns out to be his path to an NFL job. Chiles may be having a hard time beating out guys like Malcolm williams, DJ Grant, Dan Buckner, Kirkendoll, and Brandon Collins for PT. It is indubitably a frustrating position for this talented guy.

by Kafka on Sep 10, 2008 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kind of agree

I think that Colt would be much more effective if he actually pulled the ball on some of the zone read plays… It would open a bigger gap on a lot of those runs just for the chance that the QB may keep. It may hold an LB or DE rather than having them crash down on the hand off… I saw several opportunities the last 2 weeks where McCoy and Chiles could have kept for big yards had they just pulled the ball. I do not think that the read is called as much as the flow, sweep or zone off tackle play… We have not seen the counter this year either.

I think that we have a huge upside due to the fact that Fozzy does not show up a great deal on game tape so people will have a hard time preparing for his speed. He reminds me of Ramonce Taylor in a lot of ways because of his straight line speed. We need to get him in the slot for option, swing pass, screen game, and also combine the backfield with Fozzy and Vondrell.

We have the talent for a great running game but will we put the right personel in the game to get it done? Personel match ups are where we need to beat other teams when we have better athletes in those match ups… When I look at the UTEP game we had wins and losses in this battle… Loss big tiime when Buckner (6’4") got beat up by a 5’11" junior corner. Looks like a good match up (size)but really a freshman rarely matches up well in 1 on 1 against an experienced corner. result- not getting off the ball and a lack of fight to get the ball. If it had been Quan, I would say that would have been a TD… Could be wrong…

by longhorn35 on Sep 10, 2008 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Counter

I expect that the horns will run the counter much more with Fozzy. It was the favorite play of the O line last season and should be a favorite once again this year with Fozzy running the ball. that one man reverse motion of the counter requires a runner with Fozzy’s agility.

completely agree with you re: the use of Fozzy (Ramonce style).

It was sad seeing Buckner get beat by a sub 6’ CB. Quan actually did have a similar situation (i.e. 50-50 ball) in that same game and gave a textbook example of how a WR wins the 50-50 ball. He got inside position with some deft footwork right before he skyed to get in position to compete for the ball in mid-air and then aggressively swooped the ball out of the air. A thing of beauty.

Colt runs the QB zone read run OK against the weaker run Ds but I’m not sure how well he will do against the tougher run Ds like OU. The risk-reward is not real great (the risk being that he is more likely to get hurt than if he just hands off or throws the ball). For sure the D will encourage Colt to keep the ball and run (which he doesn’t really want to do) because the TB is a more dangerous running threat (and the D gets to try to hurt Colt).

I love seeing Colt run the draw and the roll out. would love to make the roll out an option play (similar to a sprint draw) where Colt has the option of handing off to the TB at the beginning of the roll out. Ds are much more afraid of Colt’s roll out than his QB zone read run so the fake would be much more effective.

by Kafka on Sep 10, 2008 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

injuries are screwing this up

Vondrell McGee was injured late in the FAU game, and clearly was affected in speed and cutting for the the UTEP game and this reduced his average from 6.0 ypc to 4.5. Fozzy was injured for the FAU game. It’s still too early for comparisons IMHO. McGee’s body of work over this and last year suggests little in the potential for explosive runs, however

What I’ve liked, with the exception of Vondrell against UTEP, I’m seeing quicker cuts and less dancing to the outside than in previous seasons from this group. Ogbonnaya is middle management money on third down in blitz pickup and pass-catching. Fozzy is minimum wage on blitz pickup or he would be the clear #1, because he has the potential for CEO type money (big plays on draws and screens) in the spread.

What I haven’t liked: with the exception of Cody Johnson, there have been almost no broken tackles. I see this as the leftovers of endless pre-season “thump” practices where players aren’t really tackling and the whistle blows quickly to prevent injuries. Hopefully as both McGee and Whittaker get their mouth punched a few times, they’ll ante up the attitude that nobody is going to tackle them.

by burnt in ny on Sep 10, 2008 12:53 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Memory is fuzzy

but I seem to remember Fozzy breaking some tackles in the UTEP game.

by Horncasting on Sep 10, 2008 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

One play call I did not like against UTEP

After Fozzy gained most of the yards during one drive (Cody Johnson TD), he was taken out and the ball one given to Cody. Although that was the strategy during Jamaal Charles/Henry Melton Era ( who had trouble punching it in near goalline), I think this might not be a good strategy, especially in recruiting perspective.

To paraphrase one of the Orangeblood’s article, Texas needs to run the ball in order to recruit top RB prospects. Elite programs thrive on great or quality running backs, and, since Benson, we have not had the next great one. I feel like this is one area we need to work on.
I am basically saying that GD should have rewarded Fozzy.

my first born shall be named vy

by hookemkp on Sep 10, 2008 12:57 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I liked the call for 3 reasons

1. It helps keep our smaller backs from taking a pounding (especially important for Whitaker right now since he is less than 100%).

2. It gives the coaching staff confidence that they have the ability to pick up 3rd and short when needed.

3. It rewards C. Johnson for being patient and for being willing to move to fullback.

I completely agree with you on the RB recruiting though.

by Horncasting on Sep 10, 2008 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Horses for courses

I agree with all your reasons and add that Cody is by far the best power runner on the team, that extra 50 pounds makes a big difference. UT has not recruited a 5 star running back for several years, that is why you see more specialization at TB at UT. You have one guy for 3rd and long, another guy for 3rd and short, and 2 others guys for the rest of the carries. That is the correct strategy if you don’t have Adrian Peterson or DeMarco Murray back there.

by Kafka on Sep 10, 2008 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whitaker vs. Fozzy

Scipio at Barking Carnival had an interesting observation about the productivity of each back in the UTEP game.

There are two truths about Fozzy and Vondrell. First, Fozzy is a more talented back. Second, he ran in much more favorable situations. When we went up 14-6 after two consecutive all passing drives, UTEP backed off a bit on the kamikaze shit. Before that happened, Vondrell’s first four runs were against fronts where they had at least one extra man and they were slanting their line in anticipation of our zone play. They guessed correctly on 4 of Vondrell’s 6 carries. He had only one run against an honest front all game. Two of his six carries resulted in a defensive penalty – a facemask and an offsides. Fozzy ran very well (his three yard runs where he stuck it in there rather than bounce around were more impressive than his longer runs) but he also faced an honest front on half of his carries after we opened them up with the passing game. That impacts outcomes. Vondrell is a solid back, but ill-suited for our 11 offense.

by Horncasting on Sep 10, 2008 1:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Separate question

Scipio winds up coming around to the point we agree on, anyway, which is that Vondrell is well suited for certain situations, and not so well suited for others. That I’m concerned for how we use him has nothing to do with any 4 four plays against UTEP. We’re talking 93 career carries now, where it’s increasingly clear what he can and can’t do.

To be fair to Vondrell, we’re just not running an offense that suits his strengths. Or, rather, when we’re in the shotgun, 1 back, 1 TE formation we run 70% of the time, he’s not our #1 guy. Let’s not square peg-round hole him.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Sep 10, 2008 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Didn't mean to post as a contradiction to you

but as a different angle from the one that Chip Brown took about Whitaker having a much better game and being the “hot hand”. Brown also failed to mention that McGee looked pretty good in his first few carries of the FAU game before getting dinged on a play that most of us at the game thought might required the cart.

I completely agree that we aren’t using any of our RB’s (other than maybe Whitaker from what we’ve seen so far) in formations that play to their strengths. The real headscratcher is why we are recruiting Whaley (and apparently only Whaley) at RB. He actually seems less suited to our current running plays than the players we currently have.

by Horncasting on Sep 10, 2008 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

Sorry, I didn’t mean to sound adversarial.

But I think we saw Fozzy do things we haven’t seen Vondrell do in 90+ carries. So if the ‘hot hand’ theory isn’t quite fair (and you’re right; good point), I think the larger point stands.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Sep 10, 2008 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's what law school does to you

Get used to it. You’re just going to be adversarial about everything until you unlearn what you’re learning now.

by horneye on Sep 10, 2008 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whaley's been re-sorted

he’s now listed as an Athlete by rivals. He reminds me of Chris Og, WR/RB type. Frankly he looks a little slow on film (probably because hes 6’3" 230). PJ Hill gets it done though. It would be nice to pick up a RB but then again we have Ogbanaya, Whittaker, Newton, Hills, McGee, Cobb, and Johnson already contributing to the running game.

by owenh on Sep 10, 2008 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Like PB says

To be fair to McGee, I think he is more suited for a traditional offense running out of the I than the spread. However, I still like him in there; these days, having multiple backs to throw at a defense is very valuable.

I’m in agreement that Fozzy should get the most carries, but not by a landslide. Also, there’s no question Chris O. is our best guy on third down. The guy has great hands and can block.

by TheElusiveShadow on Sep 10, 2008 1:51 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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