Have At It: Blog Poll Draft Ballot, Week 5
by Peter Bean on Sep 29, 2008 3:01 AM CDT
in Texas Longhorns Football
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PrintThis week's draft Blog Poll ballot is after the jump, followed by thoughts on the Top 10 teams and a couple miscellaneous notes. As always, feedback is not only welcome, but encouraged. I frequently, if not always, make changes based on reader input before the final ballot is due.
Before we dive in: I highgly encourage everyone to take a peek at the rankings work being done at Rocky Top Talk, where Joel and Hooper are experimenting with a predictive computer model.
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama |  5 |
| 2 | Oklahoma | 1 |
| 3 | LSU | 2 |
| 4 | Missouri | 3 |
| 5 | Texas | 3 |
| 6 | Penn State | 3 |
| 7 | Vanderbilt | 4 |
| 8 | South Florida | 4 |
| 9 | Brigham Young | 5 |
| 10 | Boise State | 10 |
| 11 | Utah | 5 |
| 12 | Texas Tech | 5 |
| 13 | Oklahoma State | 2 |
| 14 | Connecticut | 11 |
| 15 | Southern Cal |  14 |
| 16 | Northwestern | 10 |
| 17 | Kentucky | 9 |
| 18 | Auburn | 8 |
| 19 | Georgia Tech | 7 |
| 20 | Florida | 18 |
| 21 | Georgia | 17 |
| 22 | Kansas | 2 |
| 23 | Oregon | 3 |
| 24 | Wake Forest | 14 |
| 25 | Maryland | 1 |
TOP TEN TEAM NOTES
#1 Alabama - BZ says he's not buying Alabama "this year," which is fine, but the Tide have at least for now earned the top spot with the high quality road win in Athens--even with the value of their Clemson win sinking like a rock.
#2 Oklahoma - The Sooners seemed a little off--distracted or bored or something--on Saturday, but dispatched with TCU without so much as a blink. They'll open Big XII play at Baylor before the Red River Shootout.
#3 LSU - Looking at LSU and Alabama's schedules, if both teams win out between now and their game on November 8th, it's likely LSU will be the team with the #1 resume.
#4 Missouri - Missouri hasn't beat any high quality teams yet, but the offense has been so impressive in rolling their inferior opponents that I'm finding it hard to drop them just yet. As other teams rack up quality wins, that would change, but the Tigers open Big 12 play with a chance to make a statement--at Nebraska, vs Oklahoma State, at Texas. A 3-0 swing through that stretch would more than justify their ranking--it would make them a very strong bet to reach the Big XII title game undefeated.
#5 Texas - Though CU is so banged up that Texas shouldn't have any issues in Boulder, right around the corner is a stretch against Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. Have I mentioned that I love college football? I do.
#6 Penn State - That Oregon State blowout win suddenly looks a lot better than it did. There aren't many teams playing as well as the Nittany Lions right now; this is a group to watch closely.
#7 Vanderbilt - This certainly feels like too high a ranking, but... who above them? The Commodores' resume enjoys a nice boost from Ole Miss's road win at Florida, as VU won in Oxford two Saturdays ago.
#8 South Florida - The Kansas win looks solid now, but I wonder whether it will hold up over the year; my feeling is the Jayhawks have some tough times ahead.
#9 BYU - They're winning--mostly big--but the UCLA thumping is steadily losing value. This is going to be a tricky team to rank for as long as they stay undefeated.
#10 Boise State - The win in Eugene is awfully impressive. Should they be ahead of BYU?
MISCELLANEOUS NOTES
#12/#13 Texas Tech/Oklahoma State - The Cowboys are just rolling on offense against a lousy schedule, while Tech has gotten things done in a number of ways against... a lousy schedule. The Pokes will get the first chance to make a statement when they play Missouri in two weeks.
#15 Southern Cal - Obviously, the loss hurts, but for resume purposes, I become increasingly unsure of how much stock to put in the Ohio State beatdown. It sure looked impressive, and yet... Ohio State isn't doing much on their end to help out USC. The Trojans need to rock Oregon hard to re-establish themselves as contenders.
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Not you too, PB
The hysteria has begun here in Alabama – and they’ve got a lot to crow about, I’ll admit, but consider this…
They were up 31-0 at the half. As perfect a half of football you can play anywhere, much less Sanford Stadium during a dreaded “blackout.” But Georgia wins the second half 30-10, in part because they are Georgia and they are playing at Sanford Stadium and they aren’t really as bad as ‘Bama made ’em look in the first half, but also because Alabama ran out of gas in the third quarter due to lack of depth. Alabama’s pass rush completely died in the second half because they didn’t have enough fresh bodies to apply the same kind of pressure on Stafford that they had in the first half. Many of the starters play on special teams, and Georgia ran a punt back for a TD and came very close to breaking two kickoff returns in the second half.
The talent that the Dark Lord has assembled in T-town is scary good, but I don’t believe he’s assembled enough of it (yet) to sustain a national championship run, or to even be considered the most complete team in the country – at least as of this week. A team like Oklahoma would destroy them in the second half. I agree with BillyZane; beat LSU in Red Stick with all the hype and hydrophobia that will surround that game (Saban’s first return to Baton Rouge since coming to Alabama), and then ’Bama’s a true #1 team.
I love Vandy @#7. I’ll predict it now: watch for them to beat Auburn on Saturday. The Tigers are in complete disarray offensively, so much so that ’Bama’s incredible victory over Georgia is almost taking a back seat in the local discussion.
Friends may come and go, but enemies accumulate.
- Thomas Jones
Looks like you were right about Wisconsin after all PB
My hat’s off to you. As such, I won’t question your ranking of Vandy.
I will, however, question your upward thrust on UConn, which barely survived its game this weekend. The Big East sucks this year, and even USF looks vulnerable. I wouldn’t rank anyone in that league but USF, and they’d be closer to 18 than 8 in my poll.
Life is an Occasion. Rise to it.
by patienthornsfan on Sep 29, 2008 8:05 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Alabama
While I’m not buying that they’re national championship contenders, they do currently have the best resume, so they should be #1. Beating Georgia in Athens is more impressive than anything anyone else has done so far, but that second half in which the Dawgs just destroyed Bama is certainly reason to pause. The win is not quite as impressive as it seems at first glance. But still, for this week, I have no quibble with the #1 ranking.
South Florida # 8?
Ok Ok….USF beats Kansas. Whoopity doo. If I remember correctly, South Florida really struggled with in-state foe UCF. Look at it this way.
1. USF beats UCF 31-24 in OT!
2. USF edges out Kansas at home by 3, 37-34
3. UCF loses to UTEP 58-13 ???
"I asked Darrell Royal, the coach of the Texas Longhorns, why he didn’t recruit me and he said: "Well, Walt, we took a look at you and you weren’t any good.
- Walt Garrison
UCF drank the lithium laden water
got all laid back during the game. Even gave up 64-yard FG. It’s just a game, man.
The bottom four
in the Top 10 are ALL overrated. One-loss teams like Florida and USC are much too low; one one-point loss and you fall from 2 to 20? Connecticut, NW and Kentucky are also too high. And don’t get me started on S. Florida, which got to No. 2 in AP a year ago with a team that was never better than 15-20.
by edsp on Sep 29, 2008 11:54 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
It's a resume-ranking poll, not a power poll
As those 1-loss teams accumulate some more wins against quality competition and some of the other undefeateds lose, USC, Florida and Georgia will climb again. Be patient. It’s about the season as a whole, not the here and now.
BZ
if its a resume poll, then how come Texas is @ #5? not tryin to pick a fight or nothin, but that makes no sence. we haven’t played anyone…
I like long walks, especially when they are taken by people who annoy me.
~Fred Allen
It’s a combination of who you beat, who you lose to, and how. Texas hasn’t played anyone, sure. But they’ve destroyed the teams they have played. And only 4 teams in the top 15 in PB’s above poll have beaten anyone of any true significance: USC beat tOSU, Alabama beat Georgia, South Florida beat Kansas and Boise State beat Oregon. USC lose to a terrible team; Boise State’s other games were against a 1-AA team and a not that impressive win over Bowling Green; South Florida has really struggled in other games, barely beating UCF and Florida International (a combined 2-6 on the season); and Alabama is ranked #1. We have a tendency to only look at the big wins and the losses of teams when ranking their resumes, but that’s a bad idea. You have to take into account everything in between too.
Sure, Texas’ resume is pretty thin given the competition, but there’s not a fixed value at which the resume of a team ranked number 5 needs to rate. Rankings are only assigned in relation to every other team. And trying to name 6 or 7 teams that have a better resume than Texas right now is a futile endeavor.
um
LSU’s win at Auburn could be lumped into the significant category, too
"Excuse me while I whip this out."
Whoops
Missed that one, thanks. But it fits well with what i’m trying to say. They’re ranked very highly because they’re beaten their lesser opponents pretty handily and they have a good win. There just aren’t very many of those teams so far. Them and Alabama, really. OU has been just as impressive, beating several decent teams (TCU, Cincy), but not any real “good” ones. I might put LSU over OU right now, resume-wise, but it’s close.
Also if it's a resume poll...
how is USC above UGA? USC loses to unranked team, UGA loses to #1. I don’t see how USC’s resume is better (I know tOSU but they’re not even ranked in this poll).
Commodores? You gotta weakness for gold braid and epaulets?
Leave Vandy in there, just so I can say I’ve seen it all.
Via the beast, you could push ‘Bama to #1 in the first half, but you’d have to push them down to #9 for the second half. So #4 is about right. I don’t think they’re gonna sustain that long. I have a sneaky suspicion we’re gonna wind up playing the Tide sometime in the next two years. So don’t eat anything you can’t spit up.
Penn State? OK. Texas and Penn St. seem to sync up. Now, triple option from the spread about to make the rounds. As long as our DEs and LBs stay home, all is well….
Geez, it’s going to be like a harsh, windy norther and a tree full of pecans when these one-hit wonders take a dive.
I really don't understand resume ranking polls
Can someone explain to me why I should care about resumes this early in the season? Why rank resume style rather than power poll style? This is a legitimate question, and I’d appreciate answers.
And even using resume ranking, how the hell does KU replace Ohio State in the rankings? Because USC lost??
I may try and write a more detailed response to billy zane later
After having that article, it appears that he wrestles with a lot of strawmen in that piece.
by andy_wooster on Sep 29, 2008 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions
I've never heard an argument for power polling that ever made me blink
So I’d love to see if you can come up with something persuasive. Not that I’m ever going to be persuaded, but something that makes me say, “Well, that’s a valid merit of power polling in the context of trying to determine a national champion” would be a first. Have at it.
Hey PB ...
I think you did a fabulous job with your rankings. Compare this ranking to next month this time and then the next and you’ll see it change. Happens every year. Bama is damn good and have the resume to prove it. It surely helps when having Saban’s signature on that resume.
All those teams will play each other and it’ll shake out. But yours looks as good as any I’ve seen
"Excuse me while I whip this out."
As a matter of internal consistency...
…I don’t think you can put Northwestern at 16 without including Duke at all – it was a nail biter of a game, and Duke has otherwise defeated generally better competition more soundly.
Just for reference how are you weighing quantity versus quality, resume-wise? Personally, Oregon State’s David and Goliath act seems more impressive than Kentucky rolling through a remarkably placid schedule.
proud to swim home
im not buyin LSU @ #3
They are too young and there quarterback is average.
And I will take texas over bama any day. Our strengths line up with theirs (line) and our skill position players are much better.
I like long walks, especially when they are taken by people who annoy me.
~Fred Allen
Missing the point
That response tells me that you have totally missed the point of the rankings. He’s not trying to say “I think team A would beat team B on a neutral field”, but rather who has accomplished the most thus far.
I figured that out later, BZ explained it to me
but none the less they are #3 in the AP poll.
"There aint nothin' over till it's over. "
~Rocky Balboa
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