Anatomy of Stagnation: Longhorns Against Iowa State
Context
After a 17-5 run against Iowa State in the Big 12 conference opener for both teams to stretch a one-point lead at 12-11 to a 29-16 advantage, the Longhorns went through a period of almost three minutes without scoring points of any kind (from 4:25 to 1:41), sandwiched between a Damion James basket and a Gary Johnson put back after an offensive rebound. The Longhorns went 0-5 from the field during that stretch, failing to get to the foul line. Fortunately for the Longhorns, Iowa State scored only six points during that same stretch, which saw the Longhorns compound their problems by committing three fouls. The first foul put Iowa State into the bonus, putting Iowa State on the line after each subsequent whistle against the Horns.
First possession
Following a foul on Clint Chapman that resulted in split free throws by Justin Hamilton, Matt Hill secures the defensive rebound, makes an outlet pass to AJ Abrams, who quickly finds Varez Ward on the perimeter. With no advantage, Ward passes the ball back out to Abrams, who sets up the offense, finding Damion James on the left wing. James quickly hoists an 18-foot jumper in rhythm that rims out off a Connor Atchley screen. Having just made a jumper on the previous possession, it's hard to fault James for this shot, although it was early in the shot clock.
Second possession
Good help defense by Connor Atchley strips Craig Brackens of the ball in the midst of a post move. AJ Abrams comes out of traffic with the ball on the right side of the court. Cutting through the middle, Abrams passes from the left elbow to Damion James beyond the three-point line left side. James takes two dribbles to the middle of the court, taking another jumper from just beyond the free throw line, leaving it short on the front of the rim. Connor Atchley was wide open on the right wing, barely 10 feet away from James, who doesn't see him. Barely six seconds elapsed from the shot clock between the steal by Abrams and the shot by James. Justin Hamilton knocks the ball away from Justin Mason, who nearly secured the offensive rebound. Texas ball.
Third possession
Damion James inbounds from the right side to Justin Mason at the top of the key. Mason passes to AJ Abrams coming off a Matt Hill screen, but Abrams mishandles the pass and turns the ball over.
Fourth possession
AJ Abrams brings the ball up the floor after a made free throw by Diante Garrett. Rick Barnes takes his first timeout of the ballgame, which he would lose if not used by halftime. Good decision by Barnes with roughly three minutes left in the half and the Longhorn offense misfiring on the previous three possessions. Justin Mason brings the ball up the court, finding Abrams on the right wing tightly guarded by Bryan Petersen. Gary Johnson posts up on the right block, but Abrams passes out top to Damion James, who shot fakes, then shoots, looking relatively out of rhythm and leaving the ball short on the front of the rim again.
Fifth possession
Following a Gary Johnson foul, Justin Mason brings the ball up the floor, finding Abrams once again on the right wing. Abrams enters the ball to Gary Johnson, but good defense in the post and good denial by Petersen on the wing force Johnson to catch the ball near the three-point line and close to the baseline. Iowa State immediately sends a double team by Diante Garrett, the man guarding Justin Mason, leaving the non-shooter alone in the opposite corner. Johnson dribbles twice out of the double team, which leaves Johnson, who finds Damion James standing on the edge of the Texas coast, 10 feet beyond the three-point line. Connor Atchley sets a screen at the top of the key as James dribbles left. Stopped by the hedging defender, James finds Atchley at the three-point line, slightly to the right of the top of the circle. The Iowa State defender closes out well, so Atchley dribbles right into a handoff with AJ Abrams, who shoots quickly. Just long off the back of the rim.
Sixth possession
Varez Ward pushes the ball up the court after a nice banker by Diante Garrett, attempting to push the tempo. Ward penetrates right side, getting all the way down to the right block, where he takes a contested and forced five footer that gets a piece of the backboard and the back of the rim. Gary Johnson, on the weak side, gets the rebound and makes the put back, fouled in the process.
Verdict
While watching the game, I thought that James' shots early in the shot clock weren't horrible decisions on his part. With an offense that often struggles in the half court, early shots, if they are reasonably high-percentage looks, aren't negative plays because they come early in the shot clock, therefore lengthening the game and allowing the Longhorns more possessions. In other words, not all bad shots are created equal. A bad shot early in the possession is much less damaging than a bad shot late in the possession since so much more time expires. However, Mike D'Antoni demonstrates that such shots need to be taken with confidence and without fear that the coach will bench a player for a quick shot. Just coming down and jacking up shots isn't the idea, rather, the shot should come within the flow of the offense, which is designed to facilitate such quick shots.
That being said, the Longhorns failed to penetrate to the basket during this stretch, which breaks down the defense, forces rotations, and creates scramble situations for the defense. The first shot for James was a heat check after making his jumper on the previous possession, but the next two probably fall under the category of forced shots. Likewise for the Abrams jumper, when he failed to use a shot fake to give himself an easier look, a consistent problem for Abrams, who seems to believe that he doesn't need a shot fake because he needs so little room to get a shot off. Not true, AJ.
As for the shot by Varez Ward, it was forced, but he still broke down the defense off the dribble, forcing a weakside defender to come over to contest the shot, opening up the offensive glass for Gary Johnson. Basically, Ward took a bad shot, but it wasn't as bad as the shots by James and Abrams because it come off of dribble penetration and gave his teammate a chance for the offensive rebound, which was secured and led to three Longhorn points.
As if the extent of the loss of DJ Augustin needed further illustration, this stretch provides it. Rick Barnes told Augustin last year to hunt his shot if the Longhorns failed to score for three consecutive possessions. In this instance, the Longhorns went five consecutive possessions without making a basket, but had no playmaker to turn to when the drought needed to end. Instead, freshman Varez Ward, not known for his offensive ability coming out of high school, overpenetrates, but draws enough help to allow his teammate to grab the offensive rebound. What the play does illustrate, besides how much losing Augustin hurts, is that dribble penetration is the remedy for many offensive woes.
During the stretch, Iowa State reduced the Longhorn lead from 29-16 to 29-22, a significant move at the end of the half that allowed the Cyclones to keep the game close for most of the remainder of the contest. Had the Longhorns made several of their baskets during this stretch and defended without fouling, they would have taken a significant lead into halftime that may have discouraged any attempts at a comeback in the second half. As a firm believer in the importance of finishing halves well, this was an unacceptable performance over the course of several minutes by the Longhorns and forced them to expend much more energy than they might have had to otherwise.
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Comments
nice analysis
We definitely need to bring our A game when we play Blake Griffin and the sooners tomorrow.
by thebrat on Jan 11, 2009 9:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I would love...
…to see a shot chart for Damion James’ season.
He’s down to under 35% on his three-point shooting, after being over 41% last season. Obviously, Augustin’s departure has led to less wide-open outside looks, but the offseason reports over his outside shooting prowess led me to expect more.
He’s nearly at 51% shooting, but I dont feel like his supposedly improved outside shooting has necessarily had a positive impact on our offense. It’s weird.
by txtwstr7 on Jan 11, 2009 11:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Reports of his outside shooting improving were overstated
Remember the game against UCLA last season? James almost singlehandedly kept the Longhorns in the game for stretches by knocking down his mid-range jumper. I think part of it is that he needs to be more of a volume shooter from distance for this team, which might mean that he is taking shots that are a little bit lower percentage. I really think what was overstated in the offseason was James’ improved ability to put the ball on the floor. Early in the season it meant he was handling the ball more in transition, where he was making poor decisions and often turning the ball over. No particularly noticeable improvements in the halfcourt offense either.
by GhostofBigRoy on Jan 12, 2009 11:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
Nice review of the end of the half. It was definitely a put away situation that the horns blew which forced a high energy second half prior to a huge Big Monday game. If James plays like he did against Iowa State I can live with a few bad jumpers because he gets such solid looks with his high release.
I am really seeing AJ’s lack of effective penetration and passing as a major part of the problem you speak of. When AJ penetrates the result is often an awkward off balance runner. As the defense reacts AJ needs to look for an open teammate. He is our sharp shooter on the outside and needs to be in the game, but he needs to add team elements to his game. At least Ward, Balbay and Mason take it to the rack and look for the dish, while AJ continues to ball hog. He needs to take open looks within the offense. If he doesn’t make them, fine, but at least they are good shots. Off the bounce he should look to distribute more often than not. It would sure help his NBA cause.
Gary Johnson is a freaking beast. As PB noted, I really like the PJ Tucker comparison. Johnson is getting better every game at getting to the rim even in traffic. His hands aren’t Tuckereque and his passing can improve, but his jump shot is already better the PJs ever was. The offensive rebounding and ability to find the basket in traffic are going to serve him well during conference. Just remember, the G-unit just now has a year under his belt after sitting out non-conference last season.
Hook ‘em! It’s 9:11 and OU sucks.
by jimmer on Jan 12, 2009 9:11 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Completely disagree about AJ
He is the only guard that actually gets covered out side. When Mason or Balbay has the ball, the defender is already double teaming Dex inside. When they don’t have the ball it is worse. If either of them could actually shoot our offense would be so much more effective because the Bigs would not be getting doubled or tripled and would be dominating.
by Wells on Jan 12, 2009 4:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just wondering....
what the rest of you that have watched the Horns play consistently or more than I have so far. It’s not that I am less of a fan, it’s just that I cannot get into basketball yet. Right about now is when I start following with some serious intent. I always wait until the bowl season is over before I can commit to basketball. Anyway…..
Seems to me the Horns non-conference schedule was pretty brutal. They played some high quality competition and some of those were on the road. Do you think the brutal schedule so far has taken a lot out of the Horns – physically and mentally? Are the Horns maybe just a little too young – across the board – for the schedule they went through? I realize the schedule will pay off in the long run – this season and next season – and their overall record is very good considering the schedule.
Analysis please…… Also, is OU really good or do they just appear that way? (From the little I have paid attention, it seems they really haven’t played anybody except maybe Arkansas.)
by Go Bevo on Jan 12, 2009 9:51 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Answers
1. Yes, it’s been a tough NC schedule with 6 games against legitimate top 25 teams. We’re 3-3 in those games (Home: 1-0; Road: 1-1; Neutral*: 1-2).
2. There might be a little fatigue, although, conditioning has never really been a problem for Barnes’ teams. Mentally, there have been lapses, but I don’t think they’re worn out. Right now, with Abrams struggling, this team is missing a true leader. If it’s not Abrams, then James has got be that guy.
3. OU is a very good team with a great player. Blake Griffin is as adveritsed. Outside of Griffin, there are some good role players, like Willie Warren, who can knock down shots, but aren’t going to kill you. They rebound well, but exceptionally, as a team. Defensively, they’re average, but they gamble and win a lot by jumping passing lanes and creating transition opportunites. OU has five players with at least 20 steals this year; by contrast, Texas has one. This is a concern tonight because we’re not a very accurate passing team (lately).
’Nove was “neutal site” in their backyard (NY) and Mich St. was “neutral site” in Houston. So you can take that FWIW.
Muschamp seems like the kind of guy who used to beat up guys like Bob Stoops in high school.
by TheJeezus on Jan 12, 2009 10:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
corrections
They rebound well, but not exceptionally, as a team.
’Nova was "neutral site" in their backyard (NY) and Mich St. was "neutral site" in Houston. So you can take that FWIW.
Muschamp seems like the kind of guy who used to beat up guys like Bob Stoops in high school.
by TheJeezus on Jan 12, 2009 10:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Small disagreement
within an overall excellent summary. I don’t post here often, but I want to make the point that a shot early in the clock can, in some cases, be worse than working the clock down. There are two reasons: 1) a shot early in the clock necessarily means the team isn’t working for a better shot that might come later in the offensive set (even though this team seriously struggles at times in the half court offense); and 2) there are times the Horns do not want to lengthen the game. This team is going to win with defense and hustle much of the time, and they do not want to get into an up-tempo game. Running clock (and increasing the chances of getting a good entry pass and higher percentage shot) should be the goal on possessions when the offense is in trouble.
by BlueBulldog on Jan 12, 2009 12:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Good points all
You should certainly feel free to express your opinion, whether agreement or disagreement, whenever you feel the urge.
by GhostofBigRoy on Jan 12, 2009 3:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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