Five Fiesta Bowl Questions And Predictions
Odds are this post won't look good Tuesday morning, but let's have some fun anyway. Weigh in on any or all of the questions with your own takes in the comment section.
1. How well will Texas contain wildebeast Beanie Wells?
I spent a ton of words introducing Texas fans to Terrelle Pryor, but as discussed in Friday's Morning Coffee, the key to making OSU offensively impotent will be shutting out Beanie Wells. If forced to deconstruct this game to a single point, I might choose Texas' ability to neuter the Buckeyes' enormously powerful tailback.
So how about this as a Beanie Barometer: 20 carries, 100 yards. If Wells exceeds those totals, it's likely the game played more towards what OSU wanted than did Texas. If he winds up with fewer than 20 carries, it's likely because either Wells was ineffective or because Ohio State was playing catch up and forced to the air.
Prediction: 21 carries, 115 yards. I'm envisioning a 30+ yard pop that boosts the final totals, but feel good about Wells not killing us -- in large part because I suspect denying that will be Muschamp's #1 goal.

2. Will Texas be able to rush the football?
On the plus side, Texas with a well-rested McCoy is an underrated rushing team and Ohio State's rushing defense is more a fiction of reputation than an actual dominant force. On the downside, Greg Davis has proven himself, um, challenged, in designing a competent rushing game to complement this year's elite passing offense.
Prediction: 35 rushes, 170 yards. I'm underwhelmed by OSU's defensive line and think Texas has a good chance to put together one of those games in which we're surprised when the final box score shows the team picked up nearly 150-200 yards on the ground across some 35-40 carries.
3. Which early signs would portend well for a solid Texas win?
Already discussed, keeping Wells in check is key, but beyond that I'll be watching closely for two big picture signs that will help me relax:
- An aggressive, creative offensive approach like that featured in last year's Holiday Bowl and this year's Red River Shootout. When Greg Davis plays to win, we do.
- A tough first quarter for Terrelle Pryor. If Will Muschamp succeeds in making Pryor a football player who is thinking instead of reacting, we're in good shape.
Prediction: I'm optimistic on both counts. My big worry is that Greg Davis will let Jim Tressell dictate the tempo/style of this game. But... my gut instinct is that Mack Brown is hungry. That's when Texas is at its best. That's when Greg Davis is at his best.
4. What are the biggest dangers to Texas losing/falling apart?
You're a football fan: I don't have to tell you how many things could go wrong. But I'll give you the three things I think would most cripple Texas on Monday night:
- Turnovers. Fumbles, INTs, special teams screw ups, whatever. It's obvious, but especially worth saying when playing Jim Tressell -- his entire strategy is predicated on minimizing mistakes on his end and capitalizing on yours.
- Poor tackling & backside contain. File the tackling part in the "Beanie Wells" file, if you like, but it's really key for both of OSU's top threats: Pryor can make you miss; both can run you over. As for backside contain, the Buckeyes both by design and via Pryor's ability to improvise necessitate defensive discipline.
- Conservative coaching. The flipside to #3, obviously, but the danger in this particular game is exponentially greater because of Jim Tressell. That is, not only are Mack Brown's squads at their best when he's Playing To Win, so to speak, but failure to do so against this opponent particularly aids and abets the enemy.
Prediction: Who the hell knows on turnovers; a big part of that is just luck. Knock on wood we don't have a bad day in that regard. The tackling and defensive discipline I feel good about. (Eddie Jones' picture perfect contain in Lawrence was one of those moments that helped me fully appreciate how well this defense performs in that regard.) As for coaching... like I said, my instincts are that Mack's probably hungry, in which case I expect good things. Let's hope.
5. Is there a psychological "let down" factor with which we should be concerned?
Was Alabama upset in part because it suffered from some sort of SEC Championship Game hangover? Did Tech's blowout loss to Oklahoma kill all the wind behind their sails? Was California's perceived snub a factor in their 2004 Holiday Bowl no-show?
The questions make for easy journalism and fun fan banter, but as explanations for outcomes I'm not a subscriber. Once teams kick off and the pads crash for the first time all that crap for the most part goes out the window and the winner is decided by execution in the areas discussed above. That's not to say the mental/psychological isn't important in college football (it is), but I'm not one who believes that this particular mental hurdle is among those that plays a meaningful role in determining team performance.
Prediction: If Texas wins, we'll hear a lot about how much the team wanted to "prove to the world" their excellence. If they lose, we'll hear a lot about how the team was "distracted" by all these side narratives. Neither will be explanatory. Alabama lost to Utah because the Utes O-Line dominated Alabama. Tech lost to Ole Miss because the Rebels are a better all-around team with a better head coach. Whether Texas wins or loses on Monday night, it won't be because of these kinds of story lines which fuel fun barstool fan debate.
Comments
agreed on everything, right up until the last paragraph. i know utah’s o-line did a fine job protecting their QB, but i thought their d-line taking JPW completely out of the game was the biggest influence in stifling an alabama comeback.
by Displaced Longhorn on
Jan 4, 2009 5:55 AM CST
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don't forget two other key matchups
1. Texas’ DT’s (undersized, quick and speedy) vs. Ohio State’s muscle and size at guard and center. If the DT’s are too quick for OSU’s OL, they will generate a middle pocket push, which will force Pryor out of his reads more quickly and force him to commit to scrambling earlier. Even though he is a terrific runner, this will be good because Melton and Rak will be able to rush straight upfield and contain the pocket rather than having to angle in and under the OSU offensive tackles, leaving Pryor clear lanes to the outside.
2. OSU’s TE’s have caught only 16 passes ALL YEAR. This will make backside contain by Kindle or Muckelroy much, much easier because they won’t have to go into deep drops.
by burnt in ny on
Jan 4, 2009 6:41 AM CST
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Arz - Alt Playoff game a Blueprint for us?
Hi Guys,
Please correct me if I’m wrong on this one, but watching the Arz – Atl playoff game yesterday made me realize that we were looking at a blueprint of how to stop a team whose strengths and weaknesses are very similar to that of tOSU. Great running game (Turner and Wells) and a up and coming, dangerous and yet rookie QB (Ryan and Pryor).
This goes back to exactly what you were saying PB, ie, stop the run! Arizona did a great job of crowding the line of scrimmage, staying in their lanes and repeatedly meeting Michael Turner in the backfield. The result, Atlanta was forced to put the game in Ryan’s hands and he produced some very costly and ultimately fatal turnovers. After reading your thoughts PB, I knew you had to be right and watching Arizona execute your gameplan to perfection yesterday reaffrimed what I believed was the way to beat the Buckeyes.
Again I know I’m stating the obivous here but we have to find a way to put the game in Pryor’s hand… ie, make him throw the ball to win the game. I dare say that in a shootout, we have a significant advantage as I don’t think Tressel’s ball control offense has the firepower to keep up with us.
That said, we have to do what we do best on offense. Establish some sort of run game, preferably someone other than Colt gaining the yards on the ground, and kill their DBs by going into our 4 WR set with Shipley playing in the slot.
I for one am very pumped about this game. Btw, I will be in Waterloo, ON, Canada of all places (I have to travel there for work every week). If there are any Texas Alums in the area, please let me know. It would be great to watch the game with some fellow Horns as opposed to sitting in my hotel room by myself. Shouting at the TV by yourself isn’t as much fun as you might think.
Hook Em!
by LonghornForLife on
Jan 4, 2009 7:45 AM CST
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A point about psychological "let-downs"
While it is true that that stuff goes out the window at kickoff, there’s no doubt it can affect how well a team prepares.
Disciplina Praesidium Civitatis.
by zamm on
Jan 4, 2009 10:14 AM CST
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Great Post and Predictions...
FYI, Ohio State’s Coach’s name is spelled “Tressel,” with just one “l.”
Good luck out there Monday. Will you be at the game?
by Law Buckeye on
Jan 4, 2009 10:57 AM CST
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Wow, a classy response...!
I almost forgot how great OSU fans are for the most part. I remember nothing but good things about the fans reaction to our win up there and the classy way you handled the big win you had in Austin. Would have been real easy to take a crack at us for that typo.
I’m sure if you spend any regular amount of time on this site you can appreciate the shock on my part considering the amount of grief we get here regularly from OU, Texas A&M, and even now Tech fans.
I look forward to a really good game. Great commentary by PB, as always! Now can Monday night just hurry up and get here, this holiday wait for the game has taken FOREVER it seems!!! Hook’em!
by longhornJ on
Jan 4, 2009 2:28 PM CST
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The whole “Bama didn’t want to be there” argument is BS. COMPLETE BS. Remember, this team barely made a bowl game last year. They weren’t expected to win more than 10 games this year. Beign let did not cause them to lose. They were just dominated from the left to the right side of the OL and DL on night long.
by UT_BKC on
Jan 4, 2009 11:12 AM CST
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1. we need to contain beanie wells so terrelle pryor will have to take the load and pressure. It will be hard for a freshman to overcome these kind of obstacles , and he will make mistakes if he is the one that needs to carry the whole team. Containing beanie wells will be just as hard as containing kendall hunter in the OSU game.
2. Our biggest mistakes will not be turnovers, it will be missed tackles. This has been a problem that texas faced for the past few seasons. We make tackles, we win the game. Time to step up Houston, Melton etc.
3. Watch for DE brian orakpo to have a huge game and make little terrelle pryor sh*t his pants. Sergio kindle and miller will also prove to be a huge threat to Pryor
by MJY6087 on
Jan 4, 2009 1:06 PM CST
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I agree Wells will and should be our #1 focus
But because of that, I think the game will hinge more on whether or not Pryor makes us pay for it.
by TheElusiveShadow on
Jan 4, 2009 1:13 PM CST
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That's exactly it
Penn State shut down Beanie Wells, and Pryor responded fairly well until two late turnovers. Nonetheless, Ohio State only managed six offensive points with its main offensive weapon taken out of the game entirely. Shut down Beanie Wells, and Pryor, being a freshman, will not save us. Unless this is, as hinted in the other post, his coming out party.
apocb.blogspot.com
by Sam @ WWAHT on
Jan 4, 2009 4:05 PM CST
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The early hyperbole generally works two ways:
to build one team up as almost invincible or to make them seem equal. The push to this Fiesta Bowl seems to be to make them more equal.
5. Letdown factor. I don’t think Texas will suffer from this. During the season the Horns were good at letting go of both good games (Mizzou) and bad (Tech) and collecting their attention for the next game. Mack seems to have found a good balance of hitting, hard work and play to get them to the Fiesta Bowl with fresh legs, sharp minds and great attitude. This feels more like 2004-2006 Rose Bowls as far as attitude; plenty to prove, great need for fine play. This is a resilient team and that’s one of the best compliments you can pay a football team.
On the other hand, Tressel seems to have felt the pressure of bowl loses past and is working the Buckeyes hard, with very little fun or relief. Sounds to me like he’s holding the reins too tight, and his team will suffer if that’s the case.
4. Turnovers are always a worry. (Knock on wood.) The Horns have had some in their bowl games, but they’ve been able to overcome them, too. Their turnover margin this year is one of the lowlights, but one that I think will improve in ’09. tOSU was very good in this regard, going +15. If the Horns can minimize this factor, so much the better.
If tOSU gets out of their basic mode – they rush two out of three plays – and passes more, then they may be more at risk of turnovers. They’ll be tempted to go to the tight end for the reason you noted, they haven’t done it much and it won’t be expected. However, their game is predicated on conservative coaching and I wonder if we’ll counter with conservative defense.
3. Trumpet this from the roof tops:
When Greg Davis plays to win, we do.
This raises the question: Has GD ever been too aggressive?
At any rate, I think Mack’s hunger translates well to this team.
2. I worry about the rushing. I think we’ll need to pass to open it up and I suspect tOSU is set up for exactly that scenario, with some of the soft zone style Ole Miss used against TT. That I think we can handle; if they try to shut off the short/middle game, it’s just a matter if Colt has time to go long. Plus Fozzy becomes more of a threat to break it. Buckner may be more of a key, depending on who they put their AA corner on (you would expect on Quan). I wouldn’t be surprised to see the trips formation we used against OU.
1. Can the Horns disrupt the backfield? Can they afford to play straight up in the 4-3 and stop Beanie? Our D is not really set up for rushing teams like tOSU, so I have some concerns. But getting Pryor to thinking instead of reacting is one of the keys, no doubt. His freelance ability is one of the most dangerous aspects the Horns face. This is where the Horns speed and sure tackling can limit that problem – and beat him up, to boot.
I like the match. I like the attitude going in. I like how I feel about this, sorta like OU.
by whills on
Jan 4, 2009 2:48 PM CST
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We have an SEC-calibre defense
So sayeth tOSU lineman Alex Boone. And he should know – he’s faced two SEC teams in the last two championship games.
Texas has very fast athletes across the defensive line. Ohio State offensive tackle Alex Boone said the Longhorns’ defensive front reminds him of an SEC defense.
“On defense, their speed and strength, everything about them, they make me think they’re an SEC defense,” Boone said.
Orakpo is going to be Boone’s worst nightmare – and as a result, Terrelle Pryor’s. He’s already playing at NFL speed, and he’s got Miller, Melton, Acho, Jones et al to put pressure all the way across the lines and free Orakpo to wreak havoc. Pick your poison.
Still a Blaine Irby fan
by patienthornsfan on
Jan 4, 2009 2:56 PM CST
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great post, PB
Makes me think, challenges me, gets my game face on. Thoughts point by point:
1. I think the key stopping ANY team is neutralizing the QB. Wells could run for 150 and it wouldn’t concern me a lot if Pryor is confused in his pass reads, indecisive or running for his life. QBs account for 400 yards when they’re on, RBs half that much. And, there’s no evidence that Texas CAN or CANNOT stop a runner like that because they haven’t seen one.
2. If the Horns rush for what you predict, it’ll be because they get far enough ahead (probably by passing) that the LBers and safeties play soft. And, of course, because Mack won’t keep passing if the lead is safe.
3. Early signs: offense like the OU and Missouri games. Big plays in the kicking game. Lotsa Ohio State punts (it’s OK to dream, right?)
4. Biggest dangers: A slow start on offense. Pryor hitting some big passes early.
5. The head case: Most of the time, the psychological issue is a media creation. I don’t think Texas will be flat or down; if they don’t play well, that will be blamed. It’ll probably be wrong. Losses by Oklahoma State and TT and Mizzou’s scare should have the Horns plenty focused.
by edsp on
Jan 4, 2009 3:15 PM CST
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great points PB
I would also like to add that our rugby style punts could be HUGE, should our offense falter. Minimizing punt returns and forcing their offense to go the entire length of the field should be of great advantage for our defense!
by whodat on
Jan 4, 2009 5:58 PM CST
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Best of luck
Wishing you guys the best of games against OSU. I’m pretty sure y’all won’t get miserably out-coached like Tech was.
Texas Tech: No. 1 in football graduation rates among NCAA Div-1 public universities
by TT_ on
Jan 5, 2009 12:03 AM CST
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Thanks, TT_
I actually rooted pretty hard for y’all and wound up pissed off. The same bad decisions and, what seemed to me, a woeful lack of preparation to counter an expected defense. Ole Miss wasn’t the first to use a soft zone with good tackling to stop the YAC. Missing Crabtree’s speed to break through that D did hurt. Tech didn’t run worth shit when it counted.
Leach has to learn that you can’t gamble if the team can not afford to lose the gamble in that situation, particularly the loss of momentum and giving up a quick score. While he may be a brilliant coach, the decisions in both the OU and the Ole Miss games were incredibly stupid…and y’all shouldn’t let him off the hook for those. He just glossed over it (even if Harrell later said the Ole Miss situation was his decision, the point was he was on the field and they were going in some form and not kicking). That was really bad coaching at the time and irresponsible responses after the games. If you want better, you make him walk the plank on dumbshit decisions like that.
What I didn’t see much was the sense of threat that TT normally projects. Don’t know why…
by whills on
Jan 5, 2009 12:49 AM CST
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A buckeye fans thoughts
im expecting Texas to win, much in the way the national title game vs LSU went last year…….
Ohio States offensive line just is not very good-
just watch the Penn State game, the oline was getting beat on almost every play, Chris Wells cant do it all by himself
LSU and Florida games as well, good quick dlines just kill our oline
unless the oline plays out of their minds, Pryor is going to be running for life all night, and Wells is going to be stuffed much like the Penn State game
Ohio States Linebackers in coverage-
they are going to have to cover in this game, and Freeman and Laurinaitis really are not good in coverage, im sure Texas will exploit this with their excellent passing attack and target throws toward the linebackers instead of going after our secondary (which is very good)
Playcalling-
will Tressel finally turn Pryor loose? he kept pounding away with Wells against Penn State, even though it clearly wasnt working, over conservative and predictable play calling is not going to work in this game either………
Defensive Scheme-
Florida game- Soft Zone
LSU game- Soft Zone
USC game- Soft Zone
Texas game-????
nothing drives me more nuts then when our defense drops back into a soft zone scheme for almost the whole game
it got us killed vs Florida, killed vs LSU, and killed vs USC
and it will do the same if it is done vs Texas
my prediction: Texas 31 Ohio State 17
by buckeyeincali on
Jan 5, 2009 4:24 AM CST
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OSU is goin down!
GOOOO HORNS!!!!
by OC_Cali_Longhorn! on
Jan 5, 2009 6:45 PM CST
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