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The Kevin Durant Conundrum

Very well written article by Henry Abbott of TrueHoop on ESPN. He's a stats oriented basketball analyst and a Portland Trailblazers fan. While I say this is a good article, I'm sure many will dislike his analysis of Kevin Durant, which mostly focuses on plus-minus statistics.

To make it short, according to these statistics, KD's impact on his team (Oklahoma City Thunder) is significantly negative. In fact, his team according to these +/- stats performs better when he's on the bench. WTF!? indeed. The article address many of the counterpoints you'd think of, such as Durant's +/- being horrible since he's on a bad team, the number of minutes he plays, the fact that he has to carry the load, etc. What's interesting though is how his teammates' +/- along with 2, 3, 4, and 5-man rotations having decent +/- 's that don't include him.

Like I said earlier, there could possibly be some bias here, as Abbott is a Blazers fan and is definitely trying to justify the Greg Oden draft selection. Whether you agree or disagree with his premise of KD's extremely negative contribution to his team, it sparks a good debate about statistical analysis in basketball, specifically these +/- stats and how we should really interpret them. Why do these stats reflect so poorly on him when it appears he's a top 10 player in the NBA? A conundrum indeed.

Star-divide

Here's the original article:

The Kevin Durant Conundrum

KD got a hold of this article and is obviously disturbed by it, and he "tweets" the following (I also saw this on his facebook fan page).

Everybody that is doubtin me as a player and my team as a whole..all i can say is that we all are tryin and workin our hardest!
What more do u want? let me be the player i am...i come to practice everyday..and push myself to my limit, God has put me n a gr8 position!!

I love all the REAL basketball fans who appreciate hardwork, passion and love for the game..and not jus "plus and minuses"...wateva dat is!

Abbott writes another fantastic article in response to these tweets, where he not only explains the statistics, but does it in more of a basketball language. As us Longhorn basketball fans already knew, despite his incredible raw talents, he still has a lot to work on. Specifically, he needs to improve on his defense and pick-and-roll execution. The fact that many of his teammates perform better when he's off the floor suggests he's not doing a good job at making his teammates better. So we can see he's not there yet, but there's no reason to believe he won't get there. In Abbott's response article, he mentions other stars that went through similar struggles, so KD is in good territory.

Here's Abbott's response to Durant's "tweets" (sigh).

Memo to a Young Baller

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I read this article earlier today

and the +/- numbers are interesting. I just can’t fathom that OKC would be better off without Durant though. Just doesn’t compute.

by ctex80 on Oct 12, 2009 5:29 PM CDT reply actions  

I wish this would continue so either Houston or San Antone could sign him as a free agent

by TCB Orange Dino on Oct 12, 2009 8:28 PM CDT reply actions  

I second that

if they don’t want you, drive south young man.

"A lot of people look for the easy way to do anything, in swimming there is no easy way." - Eddie Reese

by SwimTexas on Oct 12, 2009 9:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

+/- is the worst stat in sports

“hey look at this bench player. he has a great +/-.” yeah because he plays against the other team’s non-starters.

3/19/2009 - Dogus Balbay Made a Three-Pointer. Never Forget.

by burrito on Oct 12, 2009 11:51 PM CDT reply actions  

Too much focus on that

You’re right, +/- is deceiving because it doesn’t account for the fact that the starters or better players on one team will likely be facing the better players on the other team for the majority of the time.

That said, KD needs to address the TO issue. Defensively he’s got the tools and will improve, but he needs to learn how to not give the ball away as well.

--always Texas--

by longtimelonghorn on Oct 13, 2009 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

Actually, KD's +/- numbers are bad

even when you adjust for who is on the court. Both traditional +/- and adjusted +/- show KD as a net negative. It’s just weird. I expect that to change this year, however.

by ctex80 on Oct 13, 2009 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

uh

He’s staying north and there’s no one here with that attitude(I’m in okc),but this guy sounds like he is tryin to justify Greg Oden and the Thunder team is young that’s all. He’s a nob that probably never gets to watch the games because there not aired nationally and then tries to negatively go though +/- stats, I just started to watch the NBA .Thunder because they got KD and he is a bad bad man.

by cpabis on Oct 13, 2009 8:50 AM CDT reply actions  

I’m surprised it took this many posts for someone to finally remind everyone of that.

by UT_BKC on Oct 13, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

Unfortunately

The Thunder’s record provides no solace.

If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!

by circa1015 on Oct 13, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Is anyone going to the thunder game at the the drum,Oct 20 to play San Antonio ?

by cpabis on Oct 14, 2009 4:57 PM CDT reply actions  

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