This might be a subject better left as a comment in the weekly Race for the Roses feature, but I didn't see it this week, and in case it doesn't reappear, i wanted to throw this out on the table for discussion.

Obviously, we win out and we're in.  And with the caveat that anything can happen any given week (see USC-Stanford, 2007), I'd feel pretty comfortable looking into cheap flights to the Los Angeles area for the first week of January if we wake up undefeated on November 1.

But are we really in that bad shape of getting to Pasadena even if we lose either to Mizzou or OSU?

For the following, I am assuming that (1) one, and exactly one, SEC team will be in the championship game, (2) the loss we'd suffer would be of the excusable type (think USC-Washington this year) and not of the mind-numbingly unforgivable type (think Tech-OU last year), and (3) despite the loss, we go 11-1, win the South and then win the Big XII Championship.

Look at the universe of undefeated teams (from all conferences) and one-loss teams (from BCS conferences), not including those from the SEC and Big XII since they're irrelevant for this discussion:

Undefeated teams

• Iowa
• Boise State
• TCU
• Cincinnati

One-loss teams

• USC
• Miami
• Georgia Tech
• Oregon
• Penn State
• Pitt
• West Virginia
• USF

Off all the teams on this list, only one -- a one-loss USC -- would almost certainly pass us if we lose.  But would anyone else on that list pass us as well?

The only other teams I would even consider threats are, in order of likelihood, an undefeated Iowa, an undefeated Cincinnati, a one-loss Miami and a one-loss Oregon.

I find it hard to believe that an undefeated Big 10 champ would not get the bid over a one-loss team from another conference.  However, the fact that an undefeated Big 10 team is already sitting behind teams from the Big East and -- gasp! -- the WAC says all you need to know about the perceived credibility of the Big 10.  If I were an Iowa fan, I'd be extending a giant finger towards Columbus for the complete destruction of the conference's reputation.  I would guess that an undefeated Iowa has about a 50-50 chance of passing a one-loss Texas.

(For that same reason, I would say that Penn State's chances of passing a one-loss Texas are virtually nil even if they win out.)

I think an undefeated Cincinnati has slightly less than a 50-50 chance of passing a one-loss Texas.  I contend that Cincinnati's biggest problem is one that cannot be overcome: the fact that their jerseys say "Cincinnati" and not "West Virginia" or "Pittsburgh" or the name of another Big East school with more of a big-time football tradition.  Voters just aren't comfortable with them being ranked so highly.  However, they are from a BCS conference, and that will count for something in voters' minds.  They would also almost certainly be ranked ahead of us by the computers -- I tend to believe that computers would place a greater emphasis on their going undefeated than would humans.

I think there is zero chance of an undefeated Boise State or TCU taking the place of a one-loss Texas.

A one-loss Miami passing us is plausible, but the Hurricanes' loss was pretty bad.  I don't think they'd be able to overcome it enough to pass a one-loss Texas.

That leaves Oregon. An 11-1 Oregon team would end the season on an 11-game winning streak, which would include a victory at home over USC.  I don't have a feel for how far they could rise and whether they'd overtake a one-loss Texas.  However, working in our favor is the fact that a one-loss Oregon going to Pasadena instead of an undefeated Boise State would raise all sorts of issues, issues which could be most easily avoided by keeping Oregon as far away from Pasadena as possible.

The point of this post is that, in the event we do lose one of the next two weeks, it would be way, way too early to panic, and that we would more likely than not only be a USC loss away from being back in the drivers seat for Pasadena.  Teams have needed far crazier things to come through in the past than what we would need.

Or am I downplaying the chances Iowa/Cincy/Miami/Oregon would have of passing a one-loss Texas?