Predictions which make no sense
by Hopkins Horn on Oct 23, 2009 1:15 PM CDT
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So SI.com has published its mid-season crystal ball, and five of the six writers believe that USC, and not Texas, will advance to the BCS Championship Game. I tend to disagree with the five, but, whatever. Either we'll prove them wrong or we won't.
But what I don't get is that all five who predict that we won't make Pasadena also predict that we'll be the only Big XII team in the BCS. That means all five think we'll win the Big XII. There are only two possible explanations:
(1) they think that OSU will be good enough to beat us but that they won't be good enough against at least two other Big XII opponents down the stretch, or
(2) we lose to someone other than OSU (Mizzou tomorrow? Kansas at home?).
I would think OSU has at least a 50-50 chance of winning the Big XII South if they beat us. (And if you're more concerned about an exciting BCS match-up than winning the Big XII, being a free agent for the BCS rather than being locked into the Fiesta and presumably having to play Boise or TCU wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.)
Maybe I'm giving the writers too much credit when I assume they consider the implications of what they predict . . .
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I thnk you're more astute than the (ahem) panel of experts. From here it looks like:
If the Horns win out, they’re in the MNC.
If they lose to OSU and then win out — who cares who wins the Big 12 title — that champion AND Texas will be in the BCS. Big 12 champ probably in the Fiesta, UT an at-large stepping into USC’s Rose Bowl spot or the SEC champ’s Sugar Bowl spot.
If the Longhorns lose one and it’s NOT to Oklahoma State, then win out — including the Big 12 title — they’re in a BCS bowl. Maybe USC gets the MNC spot — and maybe not. There’s still Oregon on the road, plus Stanford, UCLA and Arizona. I do give USC this much: They had the toughest schedule in the country.
by edsp on Oct 23, 2009 1:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
How do they have the toughest schedule? tOSU isn’t looking that impressive anymore. ND is bad. I said they’d lose to M State, and someone thought I was being rediculous. I wasn’t correct, but they damn near lost that game. Yeah, Oregon is a good team, but who is good after that? Arizona (big wins of CMU and N zona…)?
by UT_BKC on Oct 23, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
anyone who loses to Washington does not deserve a shot at the title...case closed.
"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." - Will Muschamp
by Mulliganville on Oct 23, 2009 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
The assumption being made is that whoever beats UT will have other loses on their record. If OSU where to beat UT in Stillwater they still have to beat Texas Tech and OU in Norman. As bad as OU is on offense this year I still think by the end of the season they should be able to beat OSU in Norman with the defense we have.
by What_the on Oct 23, 2009 1:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
With that scenario
UT gets the Fiesta bowl slot and no 2 loss Big 12 team will get an at large bid.
by What_the on Oct 23, 2009 1:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The only possible scenario that might make sense:
Texas loses to OSU, OSU loses to OU. Does that mean we’re back where we were last year? Or would OU’s two OOC losses come first in the tie-breaker?
by Horn Brain on Oct 23, 2009 1:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You would not have a 3 way tie like last year.
If this was a three way tie you would get the nod as OU and OSU have OOC loses. Last year happened because all 3 had identical records.
by What_the on Oct 23, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
D
OOC loses do not count against the big xii standings. Therefore, the scenario posed by HB would indeed lead to a tiebraker akin to last year. Fortunately for us, those OOC for the state of Oklahoma would mean our BCS ranking woul be higher than OKSt.
Than again I’ve just remembered we made it all the way to tiebreaker step five or something last year and one thru four may discuss OOC loses…
by DaGoose on Oct 25, 2009 10:49 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I think the OOC loss tiebreaker comes in before the BCS one.
1: The records of the three teams will be compared against each other
2: The records of the three teams will be compared within their division
3: The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5 and 6)
4: The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
5: The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular season conference play shall be the representative
by ajax77777 on Oct 25, 2009 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just Curious
Will you be doing your BCS analysis again this year?
by Hookem4life84 on Oct 23, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
We may be delayed until next week, but I may throw it out tonight before all of the picks are due.
by Horn Brain on Oct 23, 2009 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome
Look forward to it. I really enjoyed the articles last year.
by Hookem4life84 on Oct 23, 2009 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
The more I thought about this what I said is not true. If UT loses to OSU and then loses to OU. OSU gets the nod to go to the Big12 championship game on the head to head victory. OSU would have to lose to another Big 12 opponent for UT to get back to the Big 12 Championship game. At that point OSU to Fiesta, UT would be at large with only 1 loss.
by What_the on Oct 23, 2009 1:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
OSU would have to lose to Tech.
Right now thats the only 3 way tie scenario if we lose to OSU.
That would put us in the title game.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 23, 2009 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't OSU losing to OU, and both teams otherwise winning out, a three-way tie secanrio?
I mean, it’s nothing to worry about, since we would win the tiebreaker on any conceivable three-way tiebreaker situation. But it does mean I need to clarify an assumption I made in the original post — OSU could beat us and still lose the Big XII South to us with just one loss down the stretch, if that loss is to Tech or OU and there is a three-way 7-1 situation. I just don’t see that happening.
Formerly kjm017
by Hopkins Horn on Oct 23, 2009 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Technically, I think overall record is the first tie breaker, unlike NFL where division record counts first.
Which would mean theres no team that can go toe to toe with us unless OSU wins out. Then they would own the head to head.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 23, 2009 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is tiebreak #1 just conference record or all games?
My read is that it is mean to compare the record of the three teams within the entire conference. It’s listed as a “tiebreaker” because it’s the first thing that matters in determining a division winner.
Formerly kjm017
by Hopkins Horn on Oct 23, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It has to be overall record
because otherwise #1 would not be necessary, as you only got into this situation because you are in a tie in you 8 conference games.
by Wells on Oct 25, 2009 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Sportswriter as a Manifestation of Illogical Sentiment
These guys are just sticking whatever is popular up on their boards; there’s really no purpose in having more than one of them.
To illustrate how ridiculous this is: in the preseason, when everyone was undefeated, they all called for UF – UT championship. Now that there is some perception out there that Bama is somehow the team of destiny and that UT will inevitably fall in one of the next seven games, they all fall in line.
I don’t understand these people- anyone who is literate can pair up top teams in bowl game projections, but you get eight of these pros together and none of them can string together some thoughts and go out on a limb with anything.
by Tackchevy on Oct 23, 2009 2:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, lets confirm that here
There is no way the 3-way tie bullshit from last year will happen. With the teams that could realistically force a three-way tie for Big XII record (Texas and some combination of OSU, OU, and TT), the OOC record for each of them negates having to resort to BCS rankings as a tiebreaker. Now, if we lose to OSU and UCF, and OSU loses to Tech (but wins everything else, including OU in Norman) then we may have a problem on our hands. But in that situation (us losing to UCF) I don’t think anybody will have any room to complain about the consequences.
If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!
by circa1015 on Oct 23, 2009 2:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Tiebreaker Procedures- Staight from the Big 12 website
I may be reading this wrong, but out of conference wouldn’t come in to play until the 6th tiebreaker
Link
If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
1.The records of the three teams will be compared against each other
2.The records of the three teams will be compared within their division
3.The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5 and 6)
4.The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
5.The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular season conference play shall be the representative
6.The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative
7.he representative will be chosen by draw.
by Hookem4life84 on Oct 23, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Technically
But an 11-1 Texas, would be ranked higher in the BCS than both a 10-2 OSU and 9-3 OU. So the OOC games would have an effect upon #5.
by billb on Oct 23, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OOC comes into play on #1
1.The records of the three teams will be compared against each other
If OSU beat Texas, and then loses to OU. Assume all 3 teams win all other games we would have.
11-1 UT
10-2 OSU
9-3 OU
UT gets the nod on #1 with best record.
by What_the on Oct 23, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're reading it incorrectly because it is worded poorly
It means the records against each other will be compared.
by Texas Wahoo on Oct 23, 2009 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right
It is worded rather poorly. So then OOC comes in to play on #5 just due to the BCS standing would likely have a 1 loss team ranked higher than a 2 loss team (but not gauranteed). In that instance UT would likely get the nod over a team that beat them due to their higher BCS ranking. So the tie breaker that left them out last year would now be on UT’s side.
by What_the on Oct 23, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correct me if I'm wrong
And I could be, but #1 says nothing about the records of in conference only.
by What_the on Oct 23, 2009 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hypothetical
It seems there’s confusion over what tiebreaker #1 means.
Suppose Teams A, B and C all go 7-1 in the Big XII (with the round robin losses like last year).
Team A plays the easiest non-conference schedule possible, including the maximum number of games against 1-AA teams possible, and wins all four games to finish 11-1.
Team B plays a very hard OOC, only loses on the road to the #1 team in the country in OT, and finishes 10-2.
(To keep it simple, Team C loses two of its OOC games to finish 9-3 and is ranked below Teams A and B in the final BCS rankings.)
Within the round-robin, Team B beat Team A. That, combined with the overall tougher schedule, leads to Team B finishing #5 in the final BCS rankings and Team A finishing #7.
Assuming tiebreakers 2-4 do nothing to clarify the situation, who wins the division: the team with the better overall record (Team A) or the team with the higher BCS ranking (Team B)?
Isn’t it Team B?
Formerly kjm017
by Hopkins Horn on Oct 23, 2009 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now that I've read through this list a few times
I’m not sure how we haven’t gotten it changed already. Surely the rules are intended to be listed in order of how “important” that rule should be in deciding tie-breakers. For instance, the first rule is the one that should matter the most: how the three teams did against each other (I would argue that it should be further down, but you get the point). Now what I don’t understand (and I swear this isn’t a veiled criticism of last year) is why a BCS ranking should matter more than your actual record. Being what it is, it is possible in the Big XII for a highly ranked 2-loss team to go ahead of a 1-loss team, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility. I don’t think there is any chance of that happening this season, but it isn’t inconceivable that, in some 3-way tie, a 2-loss Texas would be ranked higher than a 1-loss Tech or OSU.
Maybe it is just me, but it seems strange to look at two teams who have the same conference record and say that the one with the higher BCS ranking should go ahead of the team with the better record.
If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!
by circa1015 on Oct 24, 2009 1:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Problem
The problem is using factors outside of conference competition to determine the conference championship. BSC ranking should not matter and nor should overall record.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
by Caradoc on Oct 24, 2009 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
USC drops 1 more game this year.
The only way we lose now is if we can’t score more than 13 points.
by orangetower on Oct 23, 2009 2:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
By the way . . .
. . . I had absolutely no idea I was reopening the door to a discussion of Big XII tiebreaker rules when I originally posted! I should be flogged.
Formerly kjm017
by Hopkins Horn on Oct 23, 2009 2:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
When I see things like that...
I just want Texas to win so we can shut them up. Though, come to think of it, they will keep talking even if Texas wins.
by TexasGarcia37 on Oct 23, 2009 3:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
pandora's box.....
this fanpost is a preview of things to come of Texas doesn’t take care of business the next 2 weeks on the road.
Please, oh please I do not want to go through this again!!!
by silky51 on Oct 23, 2009 3:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I guess staples thinks that GaTech will lose another AND both Miami and VaTech will win out since he has VaTech winning the ACC and Miami getting picked for the Sugar. Considering their remaining schedules, I’m not sure any of them lose a game. Also, if Miami doesn’t lose another game, I feel like they would be the best 1 loss team (ahead of USC).
by UT_BKC on Oct 23, 2009 3:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It would be beautiful though if UF dropped a conference game but beat Bama in the SEC championship, TCU, Boise, Iowa and Cinn didn’t lose a game, and Miami and USC finished with one loss (I want us to go undefeated of course). Then you probably get a 1 loss UF or USC jumping Cinn and Iowa. All the other 1 losses also have a lot to bitch about because they would (and should) argue their SOSs look pretty similar at the end of the year.
by UT_BKC on Oct 23, 2009 3:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You, sir, are the possessor of an evil mind. Evil
I like it.
by edsp on Oct 23, 2009 6:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
screw SI, here are my (correct) picks
Teams that will be going to a BCS bowl: Texas*, Florida*, Alabama, Boise St, TCU, Iowa, USC, Oregon, Cincy, Georgia Tech (maybe Virginia Tech if they are lucky)
- denotes NC game
by MJY6087 on Oct 24, 2009 11:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I just ran the numbers
Well, I have done a lot of calculations, and crunched a LOT of numbers. First you have to take into account strength of schedule, out of conference opponents, and bcs rank and then you realize you can just stop completely because…
there is no fucking way we lose to OSU. Will Muschamp will suit up at halftime if the game looks like it is in question.
"We takin it all the way back to Awwwstin, Texas, baby!"
by 2100 San Jac on Oct 26, 2009 1:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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