Welcome to the (belated) first edition of this year's BCS Breakdown. In this episode, I'll mostly be throwing out the first week's data for you to digest, as well as reminding everyone just what exactly it is that we're looking at, here. Look for a more polished version in the coming weeks, as I adjust some of my standards to accommodate changes due to the addition of last year's BCS data.  For now, though, it's just madness as usual...

Outliers Watch -OR- Upset Bear Can Smell Your Indecision:

This part of the Breakdown focuses on the latest BCS poll and what it's trying to tell us.  To extract a little more information out of the polls than what is obvious from a glance, I take the standard deviation of the rankings assigned to each team by the various polls (Harris, Coaches, and the 6 computer polls) and compare it to a curve fit to the average standard deviation of the team ranked in that position based on the past several years of BCS numbers.

That's all well and complicated, but what exactly does it mean?  Well in order to make my posts more accessible to everyone, I've decided to give the formerly named "Delta from Expected Uncertainty" a new moniker, as well as a mascot that everyone can recognize.  In order to understand this, it's best to explain what exactly I've taken this metric to mean before I introduce the mascot.

The metric formerly known as "Delta from Expected Uncertainty" is a measure of the general confusion surrounding the proper placement of a given team on a ballot.  The higher it is, then the bigger disagreement amongst the polls.  Since the humans tend to agree (with whatever the AP said last week), and the computers tend to agree, I find that 99% of the time, the value of this ranking can be explained by comparing the computer average ranking to the human average rankings of the team in question.  I view the metric itself as more of a "flag".  It means something unexpected is more likely to happen than normal.  For an example, imagine a common scenario in which a traditionally strong program and an upstart have the same record going into their game against one another.  The humans have the traditional favorite ranked much more highly, while the computers prefer the upstart due to their tougher schedule.  This conflict of rankings produces a high "Delta from Expected Uncertainty" which sends up a flag to me (and you, devoted reader).  I analyze the data and decide that the computers are right, the upstart has better proven itself and appears to be the better team.  I bet on the upstart to cover the spread, and the pick 'em league is mine.

Hopefully that made sense to you, but in case it didn't, the "Delta from Expected Uncertainty" will now be called the "Upset Bear Scent Factor" or UBSF.  It is a pungent and unmerciful stench that can draw the ire of its namesake upon even the most proud programs.  It is something to wash oneself clean of at any opportunity.  In this light (and because Ultra Horn refuses to suggest anything else w hen I ask for his input, "What?  Is it bad or good?  Well then make it a bear or something!"), I give it a mascot, whom we shall call Greg the Upset Bear.

It is clear to you now that this is a bad thing, and more of him can only be more bad.  With that in mind, let's look at this week's Upset Bear Scent Factor.

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Mmm.  The perfume of an Upset Sow's urine is strong this week.  Indeed, the Texas Longhorns are its main source.  All is well, though.  This being the first official week of the BCS, I don't know how our UBSF has changed, though I'm sure it dropped precipitously due to the computers jumping us up several places (I had heard we would have been #11 in the computers if the BCS had come out a week earlier, we're #7 now).  Besides, this week Greg (the coordinator, not the displeased grizzly) has assured us that the offense will contain much less QQ and much more pew pew.  If that doesn't reassure you (and if you don't take a twisted pleasure in letting your hopes shatter week after week, it doesn't), then please take comfort in the fact that Greg's (the bear this time, although I'm not so sure just the bear) natural enemy is one Will Muschamp.

As far as the rest goes:

Florida doesn't have a very high UBSF, even that high in the poll, because it's just too early in the year.  Once the race has settled down to the final few games, a blip like that will be significant.  As for now, if Florida gets beaten in Starkville, it will just be because they're cursed there.

Iowa and USC show up on my radar.  A quick glance shows that they are bizarro-level opposites.  The humans love USC (because how could you not, man?!?!), and hate Iowa because of their dirty, dirty, bad wins.  The computers are the flipside, probably owing to the fact that they can't see the two blocked field goals that saved the Hawks' butts against a directional school.  USC is not very good.  They went down to the wire against the Irish, and they don't trust their quarterback.  Iowa is not very good.  They went down to the wire against Northern Iowa, and I can't name one guy that plays for them.

Penn State, Oklahoma State, and Mormon State all have a case of computer coodies (how the hell do you spell made up words?).  The humans still like them because they beat up John, the bully from Mrs. Thurdman's class, before everyone found out he had some kind of degenerative neuropathy that enfeebled him to a shell of his former self.  Though I don't know which team that would be for Penn State, since they haven't really played anyone outside of Iowa.  Maybe they're just the cute girl everyone writes notes to in class but pulls her hair at recess?

Billingsley Report Card -OR- Wait, HIM again?

Yes, our dear friend Billingsley still ranks teams based on whatever metrics he feels like will put together a list of teams that looks "like it should".  And yes, the BCS is still using that as 1/6th of the computer section of the poll that determines who plays in what multi-million dollar bowl game.  And yes, I will continue to point out his utter ineptitude at every possible opportunity until he is removed.

The computer polls have the highest and lowest ranking for each team thrown out before they are averaged.  I've begun keeping track of this as part of my ongoing quest to discredit Billingsley.  If you look at the long term, RB actually averages being thrown out more than half the time!

So Billingsley got thrown out the most (tied with the Colley Matrix, actually, but Colley is expected to be a little weird this early on.  He usually levels out towards the end of the year.  Go to his website and read his entire formula if you're a dork interested).  He also had by far the highest standard deviation from the rest of the computers.  No big surprises.  That's just how this section of the Breakdown works.

So I hope you all had a little fun.  As I said, when the poll starts to settle down in the coming weeks, the UBSF will start to be more indicative of which team(s) you can expect to blow chunks against a supposedly inferior opponent.  Until next time...

Upset Bear is Upset... and Watching...