Halloween tidbits
by edsp on Oct 29, 2009 2:07 PM CDT
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Disjointed thoughts while hoping the tricks go their way and the treats come ours:
Does Oklahoma State miss TE Brandon Pettigrew? Last year's game isn't close over the final 20 minutes if he doesn't catch 8 balls for 83 yards (6 for 71 in the first half) and block our ends and linebackers off the field. Our safeties are still having nightmares about him!
OSU is talking about how much more diverse its attack is WITHOUT Dez Bryant. OK. Except Bryant made his 17 catches for 323 yards and 4 scores (plus a punt return TD) while playing against Georgia, Houston and Rice. The fill-ins have done their damage against Grambling, Texas A&M, Missouri and Baylor. I have Baylor ranked 12th in the Big 12, the Aggies and Missouri around 7-9.
For more, keep reading.
Mack Brown talks about being able to run out the clock in the fourth quarter by turning to the ground game. Last year, Texas took 7:31 off the clock ON ONE fourth-quarter drive that ended with a Colt McCoy fumble at the OSU 10-yard-line. The 'Horns ate up another 2:06 with a seven-play push that ended on the Cowboys' 1-yard-line. Most of those plays were rushes.
OSU rushed for over 200 yards on Texas a year ago, 154 in the second half. Most of that yardage was gained by Kendall Hunter and much of it came with LT Russell Okung working against DE Brian Orakpo -- who, we found out the following week -- was playing hurt. Hunter (foot injury) hasn't played since the Houston game (Sept. 12).
Field position has been critical for the Longhorns in their last two games with the Cowboys. UT started drives at its 7, 10, 20, 16 and 22 in last year's 28-24 win. The Longhorns started at their 21, 13, 23, 22, 17, 1, 1 (again) and 9 in the 38-35 win in Stillwater two years ago.
Despite the tense final quarter of last year's win, Texas had a 77-64 edge in offensive snaps. The Cowboys balanced that out with two kickoff returns of 50 or more yards.
The improved OSU defense has surrendered 45 points to Houston, 24 to a winless (0-8) Rice team and 31 to Texas A&M.
Colt McCoy was 38-for-45 for 391 yards against OSU last year. The weakest part of the Cowboys' defense this year is supposed to be the pass rush from its front four.
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Another tidbit
The Longhorns are #3 in both preseason basketball polls. (Behind KU and MSU)
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
The key players for UT are
Keenan Robinson and Blake Gideon on D – look for the Pokes to try to isolate receivers in the areas where those two would have coverage. Example double receivers wide right, TE and a single receiver left. This will pull Earl Thomas to their offense’s right side, leaving Robinson over the TE and Gideon as help to the weakside corner (Brown) and Robinson. What few longer pass plays that have come against the Longhorns in recent weeks have come against Robinson/Gideon combos.
Malcolm Williams and Marquise Goodwin. If they catch what’s thrown to them and scare off the OSU corners, they’ll leave lots of option routes for Shipley and keep the safeties pushed deep. If so, Texas can run out of the spread or “Monroe Jet Series” or throw bubble screens all day long. The offense has to make the OSU DBs pay for jumping routes and run-blitzing, or the play-calling sphincter of Greg Davis will get mighty tight.
Great!! thoughts edsp, by the way
Particularly about Pettigrew – it’s impossible to underestimate how much impact he had last year.
just a quibble....
but it’s actually pretty easy to underestimate… it’s over -estimating his impact that’s tough.
to offset the grammar nazi thing though – I’ve been meaning to comment just how much I’ve been enjoying your In the Trenches posts. They’ve been consistently illuminating, and lots of fun.
OSU seems to play decent D against the run. Their worst 2 games were ~150 to grambling state (which does make me wonder a bit) and UH. The held everyone else, including Ga, to less than 100.
So do they have a good rusing D?
I think we will be fine as long as GD calls smart running plays and doesn’t abandon the run. Actually, even if our offense sucks it up (which I don’t think happens) I feel confident enough in our D and special teams to win ugly 16-13 style games for us.
"24 to a winless (0-8) Rice team... at Stillwater!!!!!"
THIS ^ is the most interesting stat about OSU all year. Hell, this is the only stat we need to look at. Screw the rest of the analysis and numbers (not urs EDSP, but everyones at ESPN, BC, SI, etc). Throw everything else out the window. Rice is terrible this year. How terrible u ask? Tu-urrrrible. They got beat 49-7 at home vs UCF last week.
Mark this down now: If RICE can score 24 against this team ,then BY GOD we better be able to put up 40-50, IF NOT 80 on them. If we put up any less than 30 points, I will start the fire Mack Brown bandwagon. I deem it absolutely unacceptable to score less vs. OSU than one of the worst C-USA teams I have seen in my lifetime.
We will win, 52-24. Book it
"We'll be baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!"
by greenspointexas on Oct 29, 2009 4:15 PM CDT reply actions
The rest of the story on Rice's 24 points
is that the Owls scored one TD after the Cowboys fumbled a kickoff (36-yard drive) and scored on a 78-yard drive that included a 72-yard pass and run. Last TD was in the 4th quarter, but score was 35-17 so presumably OSU still had starters in there.
I like our chances against OSU’s defense a lot — but not if the OU game plan and the Colorado/Wyoming execution and effort are on display. For all the high hopes we had after so much offensive success in 2008 — and so many starters returning (6 full-time, 3 others about half the time), this is a mediocre offense if you’re talking about Top 25 teams.
Can’t (or won’t) pass deep. Speed not always utilized well. Running game hot and cold. Short passing game much scouted and now well defended (if the opponent’s skill level is there). Lots of room for improvement.
But this unit has been working together since March 1 (start of spring training). If eight months hasn’t got it right, I’m not real high on the chances of it happening.
Can't throw deep
if we are unable to run effectively. Which will allow defenses to keep both safeties deep. Colt doesn’t seem to look for the deep route very much unless it’s a single read double move route with Shipley. I’ve seen plays diagramed on this site where Goodwin and Monroe are streaking down the sideline in single coverage and the DB’s are standing flat footed with no chance of recovering. Yet the throw never goes there because Colt has been too locked into A) watching Shipley run his entire route or B) trying to force balls into the middle. Whenever we get into a second and short situation we almost always try to run for the first down instead of taking a safe shot down the field.
by aaronlybrand on Oct 29, 2009 7:22 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
In the latest presser on MB-TF, Greg Davis says as much
The TD to Chiles was never supposed to happen – Chiles’ route was to a be a clear-out for Shipley. Missouri triple-covered Shipley because the safetyt was up biting on playaction, leaving Chiles one-on-one and the CB was looking in on the play. Davis mentions that it was “fortunate” that Colt spotted Chiles! At some point, Colt needs to understand that Chiles and Williams are going to have single coverage on plays like that and he needs to look there after looking off the safety.
Target selection
is probably the weakest part of Colt’s game but recently he has improved. He is getting good about throwing when the D loads up the box and running when they don’t.
The Chiles TD pass was really encouraging. If you study horns video, you can’t help but notice that Colt often throws into double coverage when there are guys wide open. The newly efficient horns running game reduces psychological stress on Colt and the OL. I’m guessing that Colt relaxes and picks apart the Cowboys.
UT will run effectively
like they did vs OU in the second half. Cody, Fozzy, and DJ all ran effectively vs Mizzou.
UT now has a well rounded offense and will demonstrate it against OSU.
I completely agree with your main point except that I have seen some improvement in Colt’s target selection in the Mizzou game (eg: Chiles TD pass) so I am hopeful this is a trend and not a blip.
I'm more optimistic about the horns O
Making Greg Smith a fulltime player has had a huge positive effect on the O. The running game now has the solid blocking required to run efficiently. This has put so much stress on opponent’s D. The DL can no longer sell out to rush the QB. LBs and safeties really have to worry about run support. The DC pays a price if he deploys a nickel D (especially when Cody is at TB).
Safeties used to mainly worry about Ship. Now they also have to worry about Goodwin and Malcolm (for that matter, Chiles, too, as he demonstrated in the Mizzou game). Safeties also have to worry about run support now. Play action passing is much ore effective now that the horns run efficiently. The horns will connect on 2 or 3 long play action passes.
The horns O is getting it together at just the right time and will smite OSU.
Great stuff
The horns win something like 34-20. The horns D is much better this year and OSU has lost 3 stars from the O (Pettigrew, Hunter, and Bryant). Against an elite D like UT’s D, you need elite playmakers and OSU has 3 fewer of those guys this year than last year.
My guess is that Zac runs more in this game and that he will get his bell rung during the game.
With their newly balanced O, the horns will move the ball efficiently on OSU (so long as UT does not turn the ball over more than once).
New wrinkles on O:
Cody and Fozzy in the game at the same time. Sometimes with Fozzy at TB and Cody at FB. Sometimes with Cody at TB and Fozzy at WR. Very different offensive looks with the same personnel. This will make the horns hurry up even more effective.
More rushes for Cody. This poses a problem for the D: to tackle Cody it really helps to have 3 LBs on the field but this leaves OSU vulnerable to the pass. What to do?
More passes to Greg Smith. It won’t help Colt’s YPA but it will help move the chains.
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