Numbers = Predictions = Calming Nerves

by Infield Elephant on Oct 30, 2009 1:32 PM CDT

Of the litany of factors to be watching tomorrow night, here are a few things that stand out as I look through the numbers and what I predict. So far, this is helping sooth the day-prior-jitters.

Pokes' Passing Game

OSU ranks 6th in the nation in scoring offense and passing efficiency at 159.60. ZR with 4 interceptions.
Average passing defense of OSU's opponents to date (yds allowed per game): 228.49
Texas passing defense to date: 194.29 ydspgm; 12 interceptions (4.55 intpct)
OSU pass offense: 8.83 yds/att vs. Texas pass defense: 5.15 yds/att
OSU: only 4 sacks allowed

Predictions: OSU's efficiency drops a good 5 points. Thomas picks two - one for a TD. ZR sacked twice. We hold them to <175 passing yards.

Pokes' Running Game

OSU ranks 27th in rushing offense with 4.45 yds per carry and 185.57 yds per game
Texas still #1 in rushing D allowing only 41.29 yds per game and an avg 1.47 per carry; that's 23.59 yds less than #2 Alabama

Not much else to say about that . Prediction: They get jammed with a few runs for <25 yds in the first half and resort to scrambling passes, which results in ZR's [lack of] speed catching up with him while the Horns' back D smothers posts of all sizes. Thus, two sacks (min).

Texas' Passing Game

OSU ranked 106 in passing defense allowing 253.14 yds per game and 11.51 yds per completion
Texas ranked 21 with 70.80% completion (Colt 71+?) and 9.89 yds per completion

Predictions: Colt continues the Mizzou momentum and breaks loose even more with 75%+ complete and 300 yds passing. The O-Line continues the momentum (finally) and gets Colt a dry martini, extra olives before has to leave a pocket. Shipley breaks double/triple coverage and scores one receiving TD. Buckner steps in big with 100+/- yds and a TD.

Biggest threats I see are the intangibles: In Stillwater. OSU fans blackout. Texas history in Stillwater (terrifying first halves). But I think Texas is too strong mentally for this to disrupt a good tempo and energy.

I'm trying to remain as level headed as possible considering the nerves rushing around this week. I kept going back and forth on how I felt about this game, but the more I dig into the figures, the better I feel. Obviously, there's a lot more to it than this, but I expect a win to derive from those key factors.

What else am I missing?

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Comments

Sources say K. Hunter will be playing tomorrow...

Frankly, that doesn’t scare me at all. Sounds like he’ll come out, playing against a very physical team when he may not be 100%, risking re-injury.

But I’ll put money on Gundy relying too much on Hunter being back. That’ll hobble the entire team.

by TXinDC on Oct 30, 2009 1:51 PM CDT reply actions

I bet you're right

not only would it hobble the team, but I agree and don’t see an imminent threat from a possibly gimpy RB against our D. For his health, I hope the trend of early returns doesn’t continue with another re-injury.

Goon Squad is just a bunch of bullies, eh?

infieldelephant.com

by Infield Elephant on Oct 30, 2009 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah

We might want to call ahead to the Stillwater ER. Injured players don’t seem to last long against our D.

I hope he’s 100% when they put him in there, becaues if he’s not, then it’s a mistake.

by notsofst on Oct 30, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Great Optimism Elephant

Got me geeked for the weekend.

by realmccoy on Oct 30, 2009 2:08 PM CDT reply actions

Partial Blackout

Some of the students want to do a blackout but the school’s official position is the “traditional sea of orange” so they can not get on the same page. It has actually led to some tense splits in the student body, haha. Plus, the fans in Stillwater are fickle and do not know how to act during big games. If the Horns get off to a fast start, the fans will be sitting down and quiet by the end of the 1st quarter. The Georgia game was fairly pathetic from the fans and that was a game that was close until the end of the 3rd/ beginning of the 4th quarter.

by OminousPolaris on Oct 30, 2009 2:17 PM CDT reply actions

Being the Texas homer that I am

I have been reading a bunch of articles about how Okie State is “due” eventually and why not now…My question is can the same be said for Texas? I mean, are we “due” to not have a bad first half against them? I find it funny that all the talk is about this being the year for Okie State to finally play a full game against Texas, but what about Texas playing a full game against them?

The "Big Bang" was actually a Will Muschamp chestbump......with the Earth!

by kirk1005 on Oct 30, 2009 4:42 PM CDT reply actions

4.55 interceptions per game?

Is that the New Math?

I don’t think OSU has the talent to stay with Texas for 4 quarters, and they were clearly over-rated in the pre-season. But as many BON’ers have pointed out, There are lots of similarities between OSU this year and Tech last year. If OSU hadn’t crapped the bed against Houston, they’d like be in the top 5 by now. It’s an away game. At night. On national television. Halloween. So I’m not cocky. I’m just hopeful. Colt and the boys are due for a special game to define the season. I hope this is the one.

Still a Blaine Irby fan

by patienthornsfan on Oct 30, 2009 6:13 PM CDT reply actions

Um

Colt and the boys are due for a special game to define the season. I hope this is the one.

Ask anybody what Texas’ season-defining game was last year. I’d rather not have one of those again. Let’s just let OSU be what they should be, another conference win on the path to a championship.

If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!

by circa1015 on Oct 30, 2009 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions

Exactly

The only season defining game I want is a MNC

TEXAS FIGHT

by Darklust on Oct 30, 2009 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions

oops

should have said intpct.

Thanks patient.

infieldelephant.com

by Infield Elephant on Oct 31, 2009 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions

Just a win

There i sno way anyone should feel cocky entering the game – it will be close throughout – that is just what happens up there. After 60 minutes just be +1 to them and that is all that matters.

by 91horn on Oct 30, 2009 7:38 PM CDT reply actions

I'm feeling really optimistic about this game

OSU seems to be playing really inconsistent and even though they didn’t have Dez, I think they let the aggies keep their game way too close and I lost respect for their team as a result of that game. 35-24 Texas.

TEXAS FIGHT

by Darklust on Oct 30, 2009 9:58 PM CDT reply actions

Except for the yardage

I’d say this was pretty accurate. And I’m glad those points were brought up. In a few words, it came down to our dominant D and the chance for the offense to shine.

That was fun.

by Infield Elephant on Nov 1, 2009 9:24 AM CST reply actions