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Around SBN: SB Nation NFL Power Rankings for Week 11

Texas #2 in the BCS: A Quick Look

The BCS standings just came out and, ooh looky there, Texas is now #2.  It's still early and I think the majority of us are largely unconcerned with the exact placement of Texas in the rankings because it seems pretty clear that Texas just has to win out and they'll be heading to Pasadena.  But for those of you still scared about Iowa, this should do quite a lot to alleviate those fears.  Why?  Take a look at the chart below:

How BCS Components Rank Texas
POLL TEXAS LAST WEEK TEXAS THIS WEEK TEX DELTA IOWA DELTA FLA DELTA ALA DELTA
BCS Total
.8927 (#3) .9227 (#2) +.0300 +.0158 +.0192 -.0284
USA Today Coaches .9424 (#3) .9458 (#2) +.0034 +.0508 +.0027 -.0061
Harris .9458 (#3) .9523 (#2) +.0065 +.0367 +.0047 -.0009
Computers Poll .7900 (#5) .8700 (#3t) +.0800 -.0400 +.0500 -.0700
AH #5 #4 +1 spot -1 spot +1 spot same
RB #3 #2 +1 spot same +1 spot -2 spots
CM #4 #3 +1 spot -1 spot +2 spots -2 spots
KM #10 #6 +4 spots -1 spot +2 spots -2 spots
JS #14 #9 +5 spots -1 spot +1 spot -4 spots
PW #6 #4 +2 spots same same -3 spots

Follow me through the jump for some analysis of the numbers.

Star-divide

First, while Texas did become #2 in both human polls, the jumps were very minor, point-wise.  We moved up in ranking because we were so close to Alabama last week and we gained just enough points in each human poll that we overtook the Tide, but only by about as much as they led us by last week.  The real jump came in the computers, where we improved our score 8 times more than in both human polls combined.  As predicted last week, we jumped TCU (and, not as predicted, tied Alabama) and Florida overtook Iowa. This lines up with the theory that Iowa had nowhere to go but down in the computers and Texas had nowhere to go but up.  I'm surprised that it happened this quickly, but it was certainly bound to happen.  The reason the computer points fluctuate to a much greater degree than the human ones is that humans have largely made up their minds by this point (unfortunately for the system as a whole) while computers are incapable of having their minds made up about anything.  To put it another way, while humans pollsters often use continuing results to confirm their existing rankings, computers constantly take in the data provided by continuing results and refine their rankings.  As we get closer to the end of the season, the computers will have enough data to have relatively stable rankings and the large week-to-week changes won't be as common.  Good thing we're moving up now.

Now, conversely, I did say last week that Iowa had a lot of room to move up in the human polls while Texas didn't have much room to do the same.  But you'll note that, even though a team ranked ahead of Iowa lost (USC), Texas still moved up about the same amount in the computers as Iowa did in the human polls (mostly because humans have the ability to see and comprehend just how terribly Iowa plays in each and every football game), while Iowa moved down quite a bit in the computers.  Thus, you'll also note, Texas' BCS score as a whole increased by nearly twice the amount that Iowa's score increased.  We're tied for #3 in the computers with Iowa as #2, and there is no possibility that Iowa will pass us in the human polls.  Anyone still legitimately worried that the Hawkeyes will overtake us even if they somehow manage to escape the Horseshoe alive?  Me neither.

Now, this is fun and all, but what does this ranking means for Texas this week?  Absolutely nothing.  Whether we're currently #1, #2, #3, or #4, I don't care.  The only BCS rankings that matter are the ones that come out after the conference championship games and if we take care of business between now and then, we will be #1 or #2.  We can just think about football now.  Thankfully.

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Iowa

It seems inevitable that they will lose eventually. I am putting my money on the Ohio State game.

by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 1, 2009 8:08 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah.

If they had been playing a team with a pulse this weekend, they would have been destroyed.

by billyzane on Nov 1, 2009 8:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

As annoying as I find them

If they win out and add to the mounting problems that the BCS has to deal with then I’ll consider the fact that they are masquerading as a top-teir team a net positive.

If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!

by circa1015 on Nov 1, 2009 8:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

Horns are one things but killing the BCS is also important. Iowa winning out doesn’t put us in any jeopardy for Pasadena, and frankly no one will buy the Hawkeyes’ claim that they could have played with Texas. But it will hurt the BCS, and maybe Harkin or Grassley will realize it’s a box office hit and Congress will get involved. Yay! God I hate the BCS.

by Loomby on Nov 1, 2009 9:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It won't hurt the BCS

The BCS thrives on as much controversy as it can muster. This is evidenced by almost every year, with few exception (most notably the UT/USC year). The creators of this sham actually WANT controversy. It drives more interest and thus money. Don’t be deluded into thinking that they are concerned about who the “real” national champ should be. They couldn’t care less. Granted, the also don’t really want the Boise State’s and Cincinatti’s of the world to actually play in the title game, but they sure do love having them in the race.

by UT92 on Nov 2, 2009 8:01 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I am not sure this is true...

The BCS needs TV revenue and the teams want seats filled. The controversy is great for the media and the blogs, but it won’t bring viewers to watch another Pac-10 blowout of an overmatched Big 10 team. Nor will it bring viewers to watch another lackluster Orange Bowl. If they wanted controversy they would have probably stuck with their original formula rather than constantly trying to take away elements of surprise not only in the formula but also in firming up guarantees for a bid by where they place.

by Rickyspub on Nov 2, 2009 8:27 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

well, that's kinda what I meant

the BCS thrives on controversy but also only really wants big name schools in the title game, because that’s where the money is. The original formula was replaced with this system in order to funnel the money into them. Before, the money went to all the individual bowls – there was no unification. That’s really the only difference.

And even this “unification” is not iron-clad. The AP can name its own champion. It’s a pile of crap.

by UT92 on Nov 2, 2009 3:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Just win baby.

"Football's so important in Texas. On the West Coast, it's a social. On the East Coast, it's a culture. Here, it's a religion."
-- Major Applewhite

by Sunkist on Nov 1, 2009 8:25 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Nice looking chart

And like what you said, “We can just think about football now”. No more worry about BCS formula crap that can screw our chances to the MNC game if we take care our business by winning the rest of the games.

by Horns98 on Nov 1, 2009 8:50 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

i congratulate the texas longhorns passing the alabama crimson tide in bcs standings

it will be a great game when texas and florida play in the ncg. remember when your defense is in tim tebow’s most of the day, hurrying him and sacking him for 10 or 15 minutes in the game they will be better people for being so near to his “greatness” as a person.

by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 1, 2009 9:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Haha

I heard he just cured cancer.

by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Nov 1, 2009 9:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm....

But miracles do happen!

by Horns98 on Nov 1, 2009 9:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Certainly your disdain is for the media...

and not TT the person…this kid has done nothing but take responsibility for a loss and vowed to make it right. He is a proven leader and a philanthropist to boot. Sure, the entire media has a man crush on him through no fault of his own.

"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." - Will Muschamp

by Mulliganville on Nov 1, 2009 9:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

completely agree. He has all the makings of a good media story.

Although I do not know him personally, from what I read about him, he is a tremendous leader and a great person, so I really respect him. I like watching him play as well, I’ve been watching him since he got alot of playing time behind QB Chris Leak

by MJY6087 on Nov 1, 2009 10:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

IIRC

Colt and Bradford didn’t enjoy spending time with Tebow at all. Something about him being pretty arrogant. And there seems to be an effort to separate Tebow the person from the adulation he receives, but I’m sure that he asks for all of it. I thought that his speech last year was completely self serving and the fact that he allowed UF to create a plaque and hang it at the school that he is currently attending because he decided to take responsibility for losing a game is pretty weak. He is extremely good at marketing himself but I believe there is a reason that he is wildly unpopular outside of his own school.

If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!

by circa1015 on Nov 1, 2009 10:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

wow, i’ve never actually heard the sam/colt disliking thing. Can you provide a link? I really want to read about it.

by MJY6087 on Nov 1, 2009 10:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

In one of the games the announcers talked about it

They asked him about Bradford and he talked about their friendship, blaa blaa blaa… Then they asked him about Tebow and he said, no comment.

by Wells on Nov 1, 2009 10:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Rick Reilly column from a couple of weeks ago.

In the context of Colt’s friendship with Bradford, Reilly wrote something along the lines of “it’s safe to say that Colt and Tebow didn’t exactly hit it off at the Heisman ceremony.” Reilly asked Colt about how he keeps in touch with Bradford constantly and how they text, etc. And he asked if he ever talks to Tebow and Colt said, “Um, no.” Draw your own conclusions.

by billyzane on Nov 1, 2009 10:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

just read the column..pretty good read!

Doesnt really change my opinion about Tebow though. No one can doubt hes a natural leader

by MJY6087 on Nov 1, 2009 11:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Troll

Please don't tell me what to do or think, what I might say is a personal opinion.

by so.cal.native1952 on Nov 2, 2009 2:38 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

still upset your precious usc trojans won't make the ncg or win the pac-ten title

i really do hope they put tcu vs usc in fiesta bowl. so i can watch tcu with a dual threat qb destroy the usc trojans. the paradigm has sure shifted and the only one who starts at zero is the the trojans. matt barkley will never win a pac-ten title let alone a ncg. after losing to texas "christian’ university usc will not even crack the top 15 next year. that is if you don’t lose another pac-ten game lmao!

by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 4, 2009 5:50 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Manchild

Tebow acts like he IS Florida. whats not to hate about that?

by Loomby on Nov 1, 2009 10:30 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think it's fair to hate anyone

who does that ridiculous “gator chomp” thing with their arms. That is the stupidest sports sign / team symbol action I’ve ever seen.

Sometimes I laugh at people that do it, but then I feel upset with myself for laughing at a slow person.

by longhorn_dan on Nov 1, 2009 10:44 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

But TT did it in the direction of an OU player, and received a penalty for it

That’s gotta lessen your hate just a bit, right?

Formerly kjm017

by Hopkins Horn on Nov 1, 2009 10:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Also, don't

get too excited about being back up at #2. Next week Alabama plays LSU while we play CFU. If they win they’ll surely jump back over us, but as has been said ad nauseam, no big deal.

by tdwalsh on Nov 1, 2009 11:02 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Also

Who is excited about potentially beating the crap out of KSU?

I am.

Retribution.

by Ultra Horn on Nov 2, 2009 12:05 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Not the same

If it were Ron Prince and Josh Freeman, I’d relish it. But Bill Snyder’s a good guy.

by burntorangehorn on Nov 2, 2009 9:47 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well you'd better get excited about beating the crap out of ISU

Cause the ’Clones are going to take a cue from you guys and drop Oklahoma State next week to reclaim 1st in the north.

(Okay, so I couldn’t even type that with a straight face.)

As an Iowa fan, of course I’m going to be pulling for the Hawks to jump the Longhorns, but I do think Texas is a much better team and a clear favorite to go up against the Florida Tebows, so provided you guys win out there’s no hard feelings on this end as far as I’m concerned.

Hell, I’d like to see 5 teams finish the regular season undefeated. Any chaos that undermines the joke that is the current BCS is chaos that I endorse.

"I am so proud to be your coach." -Paul Rhoads

by CyHawk on Nov 2, 2009 12:35 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

You are a fan of rival schools?

If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!

by circa1015 on Nov 2, 2009 1:22 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I was born a Hawkeye, Raised a Hawkeye...

But ended up getting my degree from Iowa State because the engineering program there is much better.

So I basically root for both and end up very conflicted one Saturday per year.

"I am so proud to be your coach." -Paul Rhoads

by CyHawk on Nov 2, 2009 1:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

All I want to know after the final coaches' poll...

is who Art Briles votes for. Especially after we dismantle what is left of the Bears. Wonder if he will think we are the best defense he has ever encountered this year?

by dimecoverage on Nov 2, 2009 9:22 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

was looking back at last years final USA today poll, it was a complete joke how he voted us so low. He prob ranked us so low cause bob stoops let him lick his dong.

by MJY6087 on Nov 2, 2009 2:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

the one thing

I don’t understand about the computer rankings is that if you look online at the BCS, Sagarin has us at #9, but if you go and look at the actual sagarin ratings website, we’re #4 . Makes no sense to me.

by suidreams on Nov 2, 2009 3:43 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Because Sagarin has two ratings systems.

One is the one he has developed over time and believes to be accurate, and the other is one that gets used in the BCS. The difference is that the BCS forces him to take out margin of victory as a component of his rankings. He has made very clear that he thinks his other rankings system is far better, but the BCS uses the one without MOV. Because….I don’t know. Sportsmanship or something.

by billyzane on Nov 2, 2009 5:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Because coaches use scores in different ways.

There’s guys like Stoops, Bowden, Meyer, etc who’ll run up a score regardless, and others like Brown, Paterno and even Carroll (one thing I’ll give him credit for) who let off the gas once the game is decided. So MOV is apples and oranges.

by Loomby on Nov 2, 2009 10:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There's an easy solution to that.

Just cap the MOV at 28 or something. Computers can take into account MOV up to 28 points. Any more than 28, and the computers just treat it as 28. There, fixed.

by billyzane on Nov 3, 2009 11:10 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs


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