Stat Of The Day: Scoring Defense
by Peter Bean on Nov 11, 2009 1:07 AM CST
in Texas Longhorns Football
28 comments
Nearly two centuries after Mark Twain warned of "lies, damned lies, and statistics," our beloved Will Muschamp has been known to growl that "stats are for losers." Their points are well taken, but I suspect if you pressed both geniuses on the issue, you could and would squeeze out an admission about statistics' utility... properly applied. Numbers can tell lots of stories, some more complete than others.
Which serves as the introduction to tonight's inquiry: While with one click of the mouse we can look at how many points the Texas defense has allowed, having watched all 9 of the Longhorns' games, I know that number doesn't tell the full story of this year's scoring defense.
But what is the full story of this year's scoring defense thus far? Just how many points have they really allowed? Under what circumstances? And while we're at it, how many points have they scored?
Forget stats; we're talking about points -- the tallies on scoreboard. As even our esteemed defensive coordinator will concede: that is the stuff of winners.
2009 Texas Longhorns Defense: Points Allowed
As a preliminary matter, through 9 games Texas has outscored opponents 369-112, allowing an average of 12.4 points per contest. However, 14 of the opposition's points were scored on a blocked punt at Wyoming and via a pick six against UTEP, lowering the points allowed by the defense to 98, or just 10.9 per contest.
So now we can ask: How were those 98 points scored? Below I've charted each score allowed by the defense -- by whom it was scored, the quarter of the game, the type of score, and the drive of which it was a part.
| Team | Qtr | Pts | Type | Drive Start | Plays | Yards |
| ULM | 1st | 3 | FG (24) | UT 08 | 3 | 1 |
| ULM | 2nd | 7 | Pass (75) | Own 20 | 2 | 80 |
| ULM | 4th | 3 | FG (21) | Own 15 | 9 | 81 |
| ULM | 4th | 7 | Rush (13) | Own 31 | 9 | 69 |
| WYO | 2nd | 3 | FG (22) | UT 14 | 4 | 9 |
| TT | 1st | 3 | FG (41) | Own 19 | 10 | 56 |
| TT | 3rd | 7 | Pass (14) | Own 39 | 11 | 61 |
| TT | 3rd | 7 | Pass (10) | Own 16 | 8 | 84 |
| TT | 4th | 7 | Pass (22) | Own 12 | 8 | 88 |
| CU | 1st | 7 | Pass (25) | Own 34 | 8 | 66 |
| CU | 2nd | 7 | Pass (11) | UT 06 | 1 | 6 |
| OU | 1st | 3 | FG (26) | Own 14 | 8 | 77 |
| OU | 1st | 3 | FG (37) | Own 26 | 9 | 54 |
| OU | 3rd | 7 | Pass (35) | Own 32 | 6 | 68 |
| MU | 2nd | 7 | Pass (11) | Own 19 | 12 | 81 |
| OSU | 2nd | 7 | Rush (1) | Own 16 | 8 | 84 |
| OSU | 4th | 7 | Pass (6) | UT 28 | 7 | 28 |
| UCF | 2nd | 3 | FG (39) | UT 39 | 8 | 36 |
| Totals |
1st: 5 |
7 FGs 11 TDs |
7 FGs 8 Pass 3 Rush |
Own 39 | 7.3 | 57.2 |
NOTES
- On four occasions this season, the defense has taken the field after a turnover in Texas' own red zone, yielding a grand total of 15 yards on 11 plays. UL-Monroe and Wyoming settled for field goals, while Colorado converted a touchdown on one and was intercepted on the other (not charted above).
- If we take away those three assisted scoring drives, and extrapolate the overall success of ULM, Wyoming, and Colorado on their other drives, it wouldn't be unfair to attribute just 86 points allowed to this year's defense, dropping the per-game average to 9.6.
- If on top of that we take away the single outlier touchdown (75-yard touchdown on a snoozing Chykie Brown, in the first game of the year), the points allowed -- all sustained drives of 7 plays or more -- drops further still, to 79 (8.7 per game).
- If on top of that we take away the 10 points accrued by OSU and UCF on a pair of drives starting inside the Texas' 40 yard line, the defense has allowed just 69 points -- a mere 7.7 points per game on drives in which the opposition begins on their own side of the field.
- Meanwhile, Texas' defense (14) and special teams (42) have scored 56 points on the year (6.2 per game).
- CONCLUSION: The Texas offense need only show up, not turn the ball over, and be minimally competent for the 2009 Longhorns to beat non-elite teams. That's it.
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Probably not a proper correlation
But you could also argue that those 10 fourth quarter points allowed vs. ULM were against the second team defense. But I guess that’s still the defense…technically.
Aside from Tech, the best drive against our defense all year was that 2nd quarter TD drive by Mizzou, where they ran it down our throats and made us like it. But then the offense responded, Boom made some adjustments, and the Tigers were too far behind to run the ball regularly the rest of the game. Still, you know that Meyer’s or Saban’s minions will take a good, long look at that drive and how Pinkel out-schemed Muschamp, if only briefly.
That’s the only thing that concerns me even the slightest about this defense. We’re a little light up front — and at linebacker. If a big, physical running team (like Florida or Bama) were to go all-out and just load up nothing-but-run against us, and had their own defensive firepower to back it up (as they both do), then they might be able to lock down the scoreboard and play old-fashioned field position football with us and take their chances with special teams and the kicking game. If I were coaching against Texas, and I had the personnel to even think about pulling it off, that’s what I’d do.
Friends may come and go, but enemies accumulate.
- Thomas Jones
My solution to that
would be to move Sergio back to LB for running teams in likely running situations. We have loads of depth and talent at DE, so his dropping back to his old position makes the most sense.
OSU
That’s what Muschamp did against OSU early in the game and it helped keep Robinson from running the football effectively most of the night. Could also see him do that against Tebow to contain him.
by GhostofBigRoy on Nov 11, 2009 6:50 AM CST up reply actions
OOOOOOOHHHHHHHH MMMMMYYYYY!!!!!!!
Man I would absolutely love to see Sergio spy Tebow all night. That is a matchup I would pay money to see. Do you think Tebow would make it the whole game with his little draw plays or do you think Sergio would decapitate him first?
I even named my son Kolt.
by vivalonghorns05 on Nov 11, 2009 8:13 AM CST up reply actions
Tebows been running those draw plays for 4 years in the SEC… Sergio isn’t the first 1st round DE he’ll have faced. Tebow would make it.
by Displaced Longhorn on Nov 11, 2009 8:43 AM CST up reply actions
Finally
Much has been made over the years about our offensive problems but memories I guess are short.
I grew up thinking of TEXAS as a great defensive team but until Greg Robinson showed up, that simply wasn’t the case here and all GR did was get us going in the right direction.
Oldest adage in football, defense wins titles. (sadly, some people think it’s running games)
This D is going to be good for a very long time. Between the talent on campus and the talent inbound, the future at TEXAS is very bright.
4th quarter defense
The thing that stands out to me is how well the defense has played in the fourth quarter. With the exception of second-team players in against ULM, the Texas defense has allowed only to the two touchdowns to Tech, when Muschamp switched his philosophy of pressing the Tech receivers to sitting off in soft coverage to avoid big plays and the OSU game, when the Cowboys had a short field.
In fact, besides Tech’s two touchdowns, Texas doesn’t give up much in the third quarter either. I think that speaks to just how well Muschamp adjusts. You might be able to get him early in the game with something he hasn’t seen on film much, but then he takes it away and teams have a really difficult time figuring out anything else they can do to attack the Texas defense.
There’s lot of different ways to parse the stats, but they all tell the same tale — by any way you measure this, Texas is simply a great defensive team, most likely the best in the country. The Legion of Boom continues the reign of terror.
Samuel Clemens was a college football fan
“The country is safe when its young men show such pluck and determination as are here in evidence to-day.”
- quote in “Mark Twain at Football Game,” New York World, Sunday November 18, 1900
It is certainly hard to measure intangibles but there are two that come to mind.
The coaching leadership for this group is off the charts. The meticulous preparation that Coach Mushchamp breeds is no insignificant variable. He has added a serious component to the recipe: Pride.
Plus, there is no substitute for speed. I cannot recall a UT defense in the last 25 years that possessed as much position-for-position as this squad does.
"We don't freestyle Texas Fight, big boy." - Coach Brown
I think there have been defenses with this speed
But Muschamp has everyone coached up in a way that they can channel that speed in the right direction without as many false steps.
by aaronlybrand on Nov 11, 2009 12:23 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
6 Straight Games allowing 14 or less
I quickly looked this up the other day and it looks like this is the first time it has happened since 1991 when they held 7 straight opponents to 14 or less to start the year. Oddly enough, the team lost 3 of those 7 games under David McWilliams. The much heralded 1983 defense did it in 10 of 12 games but not more than 5 in a row.
Considering the offensive variety present today, it is quite the impressive feat. The part that makes you tingly is that it could be just as good or better next year if Earl returns along with getting Norton and Scott back in the fold.
And another year of the Acho's progression
Both of those boys really deserve all the credit they can get. They have been very instrumental in the defenses overall success.
You really can’t avoid Kindle if you have such a strong presence like Sam Acho on the other side.
And Lil E has been pretty dominant in his own right. He flies to the ball and levels big hits consistently. These guys get me pumped just as much as Kindle, Houston, and Earl.
Agree
The Acho’s may be the best thing going for this football team on defense, after the suprisingly good play of the Tackles. We knew Sergio, Muck and Earl were going to be great, the Acho’s really help round out the D and have made us spectacular.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 11, 2009 9:32 AM CST up reply actions
Hat tip to my step-brother Boone Powell who was the Sr. Will LB on the '91 squad.
"We don't freestyle Texas Fight, big boy." - Coach Brown
Great use of the numbers, PB
Very revealing. I think some of our play-calling reflects the strategy of “Don’t let the offense beat us and we’ll win defense and special teams.” But I still have an uncomfortable feeling about this team, owing mostly — I guess — to the weakness of the opposition.
From this vantage point, we caught three of the supposed “threats” on the schedule when they were suffereing from injury or attrition. Four, maybe five, other opponents simply lacked the talent to compete with what the Longhorns could put on the field.
This first group consists of OU, OSU and Missouri. The Sooners lost their QB early in the RRS and were already trying to function with a sub-par offensive line. The Cowboys were missing their best scoring threat, Dez Bryant. The Tigers’ QB was almost playing on one leg.
The first group, the four weaker teams, was ULM, UTEP, Wyoming and Central Florida. I guess I’d put Colorado here as well.
Tech was the lone opponent with a mix of credible talent on both sides of the ball and a strong, healthy offense.
What I’m saying, I guess, is that the defense has only been tested by one big-time offense. Our own up-and-down offense has been good enough, and at times way better than that. But the 9-0 has been built against less than A-level competition. There has been no Ohio State ‘05, or OU ’08, or Michgian or USC, against which to measure ourselves. The next four (hopefully) games don’t present a team of that quality.
Don't forget
Tech was hit by incredibly bad luck at DE and only had 1 or 2 real DE’s available for that game.
by Horncasting on Nov 11, 2009 11:04 AM CST up reply actions
I was rather pleased with our DE's performance in Austin.
Had we been healthy this game may have been a lot closer.
On a side note, please beat the shit out of aggie.
" Answers -- Become Resources."
Without Questions; There are limited Resources...
A little more analysis
First off thanks for the data.. I took this data and did a little more analysis. I looked at how Texas performed when all of its starters were on defense. For that I took out all the TDs scored by the other team during a time when the game has been already decided. This included all the fourth quarter TDs that were scored by every team except Oklahoma and TT. I also took out all the FGs that were scored by the other team for drives starting within our 20 yard line. I did not take the TDs out, because you expect your defense to stop the score but its nearly impossible to stop a field goal once you start within the 20 yard line.
Based on this the TEXAS defense has only allowed a total of 72 points in the 9 games that it has played… Seen another way they have only allowed 8 points per gam. I then took out the number of points scored by the Defense and special teams have scored, it comes down to 3 points.
In essense what it boils down to is that the Defense and Special teams have allowed the other team only 3 points in 9 games or 0.33 points per game, or 1 point in every 3 games..
I know...
And after I look at Florida and the protection Tebow has got from his line… We are going to be all over his ass and then some
by Crimson Fog on Nov 11, 2009 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
Seen another way they have only allowed 8 points per gam(sic). I then took out the number of points scored by the Defense and special teams have scored, it comes down to 3 points.
According to your math, the starting defense has given up 72 points. The defense and special teams has scored 56 points. That is a point differential of 16 points. How do you ocme up with 3?
I should add that including special teams scoring in with defense is fairly ludicrous; they are a completely separate entity. Punt pressure unit does not equal defense.
Oh I forgot
I forgot to take the pick 6 out against Wyoming.. that would make it -4 points in 9 games
Great Post
It good illustration why Texas has the #1 defense in the country.
Thinking that Alabama may be an eventual opponent I have watched most part of six of their games and the offense is not very potent. If you match up the Texas defense against the Tide’s offense it not a matter of a Texas win but by how much. For Alabama of 40 drives into the red zone they have scored only 18 TD,s. Texas has scored 28 TD’s in 42 trys from the red zone.
UT’s offense has scored 46 TD’s and Alabana offense has scored only 30. It shows Alabama has scored 12 TD’s from outside the 20 and the Horns have scored 18 from out side the 20
In a bowl match up Alabama will have real problems scoring and against the Horns defense.
Small Math Correction
The Longhorns would be outscoring their opposition by more than 17 a game not 12.
Hmmm...
Mr. Bean, it seems you run a pretty nice site here.
Having said that, you went on EDSBS Live and bascially said Nebraska’s defense is pedestrian. But Nebraska, without discrediting how the opposition’s offense scored, is only allowing 8.6ppg. the only points I’m taking away from the opposition are points scored by their defenses, a pick 6 and a fumble recovery returned for a TD.
How do you make the statement that Texas’ defense is so much better than Nebraska’s, especially when you consider how horrific this team is on offense?
GBR!!!
He's referring to this....
http://www.cornnation.com/2009/11/11/1126380/under-the-hood-nebraska#comments
I hope we meet you guys in a few weeks. :)
Go Big Red Nebraska!
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Twitter!
cornnation@gmail.com
by Jon Johnston on Nov 11, 2009 9:26 PM CST up reply actions
You play in the Big 12 north
Also, the Tech game.
by goingforthecorner on Nov 12, 2009 10:02 AM CST up reply actions
They held OU to 3 points in Norman
you gave up 13 to OU at at an allegedly neutral site
As for the Tech game, I think that was the fewest yards given up to Tech this season. Tech had over 400 yards passing against texas, so that isn’t a game to argue for your defensive prowess.
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