It’s All About The W’s

by TXStampede on Nov 16, 2009 1:50 PM CST

Win and your in. That's what they tell you. TCU and Cincinnati are outside looking in due to the human condition. And thank goodness if you are a Horns fan as the voters (those that count) have continued to rank us 2nd since our road win in Stillwater.

If I were a voter (or a CBS Sportsline Blogpoll participant) I would be focusing on some key metrics. Below are a few that are about as good a barometer as any.

Through 10 Games	Florida	Alabama	Texas	TCU	Cinci
All Games	10-0	10-0	10-0	10-0	10-0
at Home	5-0	6-0	5-0	5-0	5-0
on Road	4-0	3-0	4-0	5-0	5-0
Neutral Site	1-0	1-0	1-0	0-0	0-0
on Grass Field	10-0	8-0	1-0	9-0	1-0
on Turf Field	0-0	2-0	9-0	1-0	9-0
vs. Conference	8-0	7-0	6-0	6-0	6-0
vs. Non-Conference	2-0	3-0	4-0	4-0	4-0
vs. Winning	6-0	3-0	6-0	5-0	5-0
vs. Non-Winning	4-0	6-0	4-0	5-0	5-0
vs. Ranked (AP)	1-0	2-0	1-0	3-0	2-0
vs. Unranked (AP)	9-0	8-0	9-0	7-0	8-0

Scoring pts/game:
Team	33.9	30.9	41.6	39.2	38.4
Opponents	10.9	10.9	12.6	12.9	16.9
Delta	23.0	20.0	29.0	26.3	21.5

Red Zone Success
Team	73.47%	85.37%	93.62%	87.76%	88.89%
Opponents	77.78%	68.42%	78.95%	76.47%	84.00%

O.K. so Florida can't score as consistent as the other undefeateds. They have the holy one and the win streak.

No wonder the Longhorns are at the top of Matt Hinton's and Samuel Chi's Blogpoll ranking when looking on both sides of the ball...

Offensive power: Potent. Too bad we are pulling the 1's in the 3rd quarter otherwise our SPG would be off the chart. In spite of the national media's incessant over-the-top reporting of how "inconsistent" our offense has been, our SPG and RZS stands above the others. BTW, where were they this week in reporting about our sorry running game? chirp, chirp, chirp.

Red Zone: An interesting statistic. If the Longhorn first team defense played as much as Florida's and Alabama I would surmise our number here would be on par, if not better, than theirs.

Scoring defense: While not as high as Florida or Alabama, we have been fortunate to be able to play our scout squad in the 4th quarter of all but one game this year. I'll take fresh legs in January over this stat. And I'll take a 29 point APD, too.

Our lone game on grass in the Cotton Bowl was perhaps the best game all year as it showed the moxie and heart of the team to fight until the end. It's good the team got into a scrum like that playing 4 quarters of ball. They may need to call upon that experience in Pasadena.

Speaking of grass, interesting that we will have played on one natural turf field all year. That will be an obscure stat heading into the Rose Bowl.

Texas' schedule: Hmmm. Notice anything interesting here? We are tied with Florida for 60% of wins vs. teams with winning records. This compares to Alabama with only 30%. Damn computers.

Texas v. TCU: This is not the correct argument. It should be Florida v. TCU, IMO. And notice TCU has the most wins vs. ranked opponents. That is strong.

Cincinnati: Their defense does not compare to the other undefeated teams. Coach Kelley knows this and leaves them out of the discussion.

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Comments

Well done!

Great stuff Stampede!

Depth. That is what separates TCU and Cincy from the Big 3. They couldnt handle a deep, long game and it would lead to a 4th quarter meltdown against better competition. Clemson? Its just the CJ Spiller Show. Utah? Not the same team once Brian Johnson left. He was by far the most underrated QB’s last year. BYU? They’re about as wishy-washy as Florida State. Struggled to beat the worst team in CFB last week. I’m not impressed with TCU’s “ranked wins”.

Then again…I’m not impressed with our schedule either, but what can you do. We’re Texas. “Insert Smug Mark May Smile Here”

Get off your knees Greg, you're blowin' the game.

by kriess on Nov 16, 2009 2:23 PM CST reply actions

or a long season

against better opponents, week in, week out.

by Orangetower87 on Nov 17, 2009 7:50 AM CST up reply actions

Ranked wins is a bit of a non-starter based on your original argument...

If we are to agree that the polls are part of the problem then they should be left out as a metric.

Some sort of strength of schedule formula should be better. If you go to the four computers (Sagarin, Colley, Massey, Anderson/Hester) that list strength of schedule you get the following averages (best, worst rankings in parens):

Alabama 23 (12, 31)
Florida 32 (27, 39)
Texas 46 (35, 54)
TCU 56 (48, 68)
Cincy 57 (47, 66)
[You (rightfully) didn’t include BSU, but they averaged 95 (88,113).]

Now this seems odd considering Bama has played the least number of winning opponents, but I think most SOS formulas include opponents’ opponents records, so Bama likely played teams that lost to other better teams while TCU and Cincy played teams with good records who probably beat weaker teams.

I imagine TCU’s SOS will drop the rest of the way compared to everyone else’s while Cincy’s will go up relative to everyone else. Bama and Florida will probably drop compared to ours since they both play weak non-conference games this week. In the end I bet our SOS is closer to the SEC’s winner than it is to TCU’s. Cincy’s is hard to figure should they win out, but it will probably be close to, if not, higher than our’s.

by Rickyspub on Nov 16, 2009 3:21 PM CST reply actions

4th and 5.

by BMC237 on Nov 16, 2009 7:12 PM CST reply actions

The AP rank is current. Should have provided data source...cfbstats.com

Current rank is a much stronger method of determining quality wins.

"We don't freestyle Texas Fight, big boy." - Coach Brown

by TXStampede on Nov 16, 2009 8:09 PM CST up reply actions

Yes, and where teams finish is the ultimate testimony of the quailty of the win or loss during the season.

"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." - Will Muschamp
"Somebody will always break your records. It is how you live that counts." - Earl Campbell

by Mulliganville on Nov 16, 2009 8:25 PM CST up reply actions