FanPost

Dissecting the BCS

There has been some concern from Texas fans that we could be jumped by the other undefeateds or the SEC runner up. I can say with 99.9% certainty: not going to happen. That's based on running simulations with the computers and predicting human votes.


If we beat Nebraska, we will be 13-0 Big 12 champs. Then, we have

  • Cincinnati: Cincy will lose to Pitt and be out of contention. But even if they beat Pitt; the victory will look less impressive thanks to a loss to WVU. Add to that Cincy giving up 36 points to Illinois and 45 to UConn at home; needing that BS touchdown against WVU (fumble call reversed by replay booth with no evidence), and no voter will put them ahead of Texas.

     

    The computers like Cincy, but some of them will still have Texas ahead of them. So, no dice.

  • TCU: What hurt TCU was their laughable schedule. Some TCU fans argued they should be ranked #1 because they were the only team to beat 3 ranked teams (BYU, Utah and Clemson)... No dice. Clemson just lost to South Carolina and will lose to Georgia Tech. This will drop them out of the rankings.

     

    I hoped BYU would beat Utah by a lot, so they could drop the Utes out of the rankings. After blowing ridiculously blowing the lead and going into overtime, they might let Utah stay ranked. Damn. But it doesn't matter. TCU is a very good team, but playing the likes of New Mexico, Texas State, UNLV, San Diego State, etc... won't get you anywhere. TCU should not and will not jump Texas.

  • Boise State: They have one of the weakest schedules in the country (ranked in the 90's). The computers laugh at BSU and so do the human voters. They beat Nevada at home by 11 points, but most people will frown upon that; since they give Nevada way less credit than they deserve. There is no way BSU will play for the NCG. OK, maybe they have a 0.001% chance. But that's about it.

  • 1-loss SEC runner-up: (Most likely Bama). I simulated both Bama and Florida winning the SEC championship on the computers. The loser will drop behind Texas AND Cincinnati. And there is just no way human voters will put them ahead of undefeated teams. I guess the human polls will have them ahead of Boise State, but behind other undefeated teams.

Now, other points:

  • I wanted Oklahoma to win out after losing to us; but they had that embarrassing loss at Texas Tech. If they won out, they would be at a respectable 8-4 (or 9-3) and would most certainly be ranked. Now they aren't, and with Texas Tech struggling against Baylor (and the media doesn't love them like they love OU), I don't see TTU back to the rankings.
  • It's a great thing we will face Nebraska for the title instead of Kansas State. That really helped us SOS-wise, jumping us from the 30's to about #20. Nebraska will be ranked when we face them; Kansas State wouldn't be (they have 2 victories against FCS teams).
  • Nebraska will be the toughest defense we've face all year (including OU), and a good preview of what's coming from Florida and Alabama. Ndamukong Suh is very, very scary. Good thing they have no offense to speak of. If we can't beat them, we don't deserve to play in the NCG.
  • What the heck was that final Kansas drive? That was almost as bad as Les Miles' clock management.

I already booked my flight to Pasadena.

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