Toughest Remaining Test?
by Peter Bean on Nov 3, 2009 1:57 PM CST
in Texas Longhorns Football
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PrintTime to revisit the question first posed by Scipio Tex and I on our post-Texas Tech Podcast: which remaining team on the schedule presents the toughest test for Texas down the stretch? We both said A&M, which started to look bad after the Kansas State slaughter, but the Agros have rallied nicely since then and the road game in College Station once again looks like a real game.
Two questions, then: (1) Is the trip to A&M the toughest remaining regular season contest? (2) Who do you like to win the Big 12 North, and assuming Texas gets to the title game, would that be the tougher game?
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Not even close for toughest game.
Aglets in farmerville are always tough. 2005 NC team struggled with them there winning 40-29. I expect this game to be a struggle again like 2005 but Texas has superior athletes and wins.
Besides Aglets:
UCF – win by 30+
BU – win by 30+
KU – I thought at the beginning of season – OU, then OSU and then KU would be the tough games. Not anymore after watching them against OU and Tech. In Austin, Texas by 21+
May 21pts. be the toughest game UT has in terms of margin of victory
Amen, ptooie.
by burntorangehorn on Nov 3, 2009 2:42 PM CST up reply actions
Spreads
Texas has the inside track for the Big 12 Championship game, and looks to be a 23 point favorite at BU, a 20 point favorite hosting KU, and a 15 point favorite at TAMU. For comparison, in 2006, going into the last three games, we were 17 point favorites hosting OSU, 15 point favorites at KSU, and 13 point favorites hosting TAMU.
Sort of
Nebraska is 2-2, KSU is 3-2
Nebraska plays OU, Kansas, KSU and colorado. Lose to OU and win the last three they finish 5-3 but head to head over KSU.
Mizzou is 1-3, but play Baylor, KSU, kansas and Iowa state. if they win all 4 they are 5-3 with a win over KSU.
The question is does KSU beat nebraska (at NU) and kansas and Mizzou. I say no.
If KSU Wins this week - will be hard to catch
Assuming Nebraska stinks it up against Oklahoma – definitely within their grasp – they will be 2-3 vs. the Wildcats 4-2. I sincerely think it will be KSU.
K State
I can’t see them making it in. They’ve got Mizzou, Nebraska and Kansas left.
And I agree about that thorn.
by Infield Elephant on Nov 3, 2009 2:35 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed
The atm is at night, on national tv, on T-day in farmertown. ags desperately need validation of their season Sherman program their life. IMO, that will be the most hostile crowd Texas faces all year, maybe that this group of seniors has ever faced.
The Big XII Champ game will be a virtual home game.
Outside of K-State, no other team from the North even has the potential to score against this D at a rate to beat Texas. The only way Texas loses between now and Pasadena is if Colt (the most accurate passer in FBS history and soon to be the winningest qb in FBS history) throws pick 6’s.
"It's not that the Irish are cynical. It's rather that they have a wonderful lack of respect for everything and everybody."
-- Brendan Behan --
by Zeno of Citium on Nov 3, 2009 2:44 PM CST up reply actions
I take K state far more seriously than A&M.
The worst thing A&M could do was blow out a few bad teams so Mack Brown and Muschamp can describe them to the team as a world beater for the next several weeks. This is a genuinely good Texas team, and I can’t remember the last time A&M beat a truly good UT team, particularly an Aggie team as flawed as this years aggie edition. (No, the hobbled 2006 squad doesn’t count. The Aggies owe a Ron Prince coached K-state team at least three quarters of that win.)
K State on the other hand would be playing for a birth in the Fiesta Bowl, under a very good college coach and with a team that is inexplicably good at beating Texas. The aggies don’t bother me, but I legitimately hate any week UT plays K-state.
proud to swim home
Big 12 North
I will take playing KSU or Nebraska or any other Big 12 North team in the new Cowboys Stadium with probably 70,000 Texas fans over playing the Aglets on Thanksgiving night in College Station any time.
Texas A&M is biggest test as they have defeated us in 2006 and 2007.
I would like to see us play K-State. I want Colt McCoy to get his revenge on that team.
"Football's so important in Texas. On the West Coast, it's a social. On the East Coast, it's a culture. Here, it's a religion."
-- Major Applewhite
I would be shocked
if K-State played in the Big XII champ. game. I find it funny that they are in the top spot currently, but I do not expect them to beat Kansas, Mizzou and Nebraska. I expect the North to get even uglier where each of those teams loses at least one more, with Nebraska or KU getting there somehow.
A&M game will no doubt be tough. Kyle Field is always tough. But, are they currently better than OSU? If not, I’d like think we will still tear it up.
by Infield Elephant on Nov 3, 2009 2:46 PM CST reply actions
From all the stories coming out right now, the Horns are not taking anything for granted. That will include the Aggies. They know they have to earn everything and the quotes from coaches and players validate that. There’s a quote in tomorrow’s BDR from Mack Brown about teh UCF game:
“I think we’ll play hard Saturday. I haven’t always thought that (about past Texas teams). I think that about this year’s team.”
I certainly hope
that the entire team is taking it extremely serious. You can never take anything for granted, especially going in to College Station. Being careful not to be overconfident (though I’m not being a coach or player) I expect it to be tough, but I think this team is more than capable of repeating Halloween at Kyle. Especially the team at Mizzou and OSU.
by Infield Elephant on Nov 3, 2009 2:57 PM CST up reply actions
The third 'subseason'
is set up nicely with progressively more difficult games beginning with UCF then Baylor then KU then A&M.
GD can choose to approach this in two ways. We may show a lot of plain vanilla offensively for a while then Turkey Day will be no holds barred for both teams as it always is. Or we might see a progressive number of additions offensively (CJ lead blocking and blitz containment?) in anticipation of needing more than what we have now offensively for the postseason. We’ll know more Saturday but I anticipate the latter from GD.
Everybody targets McCoy but Aggies take a special pride in having knocked Colt out a couple of years ago and will be looking to do it again. They’ll be licking their chops if they see the empty set.
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Nov 3, 2009 4:37 PM CST up reply actions
Never underestimate rivalry games
We all though the same thing in 2007 – Texas was the better team and the Aglets thumped us bad – win one for the lame duck coach! A win over Texas would lead them into 2010 very nicely along with a bowl game.
Horns Defense Will Win at Kyle Field
Too much Bevo for a yappy little Reveille VII….uh nevermind, he graduated.
Gotta be that way
Ags don’t make REAL bowls very often.
aTm: We need to play them like
we will play against Florida. No time to lighten up…If we have to trounce them for more than 60 pts, so be it.
Off topic: Watching MB is having tv interview by Jim Rome right now.
There is no major flaw for aTm to exploit..
and that’s what it would take.
I don’t see our D giving up much to aTm, so a repeat of 2006 or 2007 seems very unlikely. No doubt they will be dreaming the Big Dream for a while, and the fans will be a rabid bunch, but mediocrity seeks its own level over four quarters of intense competition.
aggy
but it stings like buggery to admit it. still, this team (D in particular) is showing no signs of passivity or disinterest a la 2007. the better team (that would be us) should prevail, regardless the location or level of hostility.
Disciplina Praesidium Civitatis.
Scheduling
Couple of things about the way the year end schedule lines up concern me:
-No bye week the Sat. before Thanksgiving, meaning Muschamp has much less time to get the defense ready. Aggie offense has some very good skill position players and is very balanced.
-Aggies play Baylor the Sat. before so they can start working on the gameplan for UT a full 11 days before Thanksgiving. Kansas is not great this year, but still potentially dangerous and I doubt the UT coaches spend any of the week leading up to that game working on anything but Kansas.
A couple of counter points
No doubt they will be fired up for the rivalry game. But anytime you get worried, just peruse those box scores.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 3, 2009 4:47 PM CST up reply actions
Good Point
No doubt the coaches have noticed this scheduling disadvantage also. I suspect they will be working extra hard those two weeks.
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Nov 3, 2009 4:50 PM CST up reply actions
Shamelessly hacked from the Big 12 official website
Divisional Champion: The (eligible) team with the best winning-percentage of all divisional members in its eight conference games is declared the divisional champion and representative to the Dr Pepper Big 12 Conference Football Championship Game. A team ineligible under NCAA or Big 12 rules for postseason (bowl) competition shall not compete in the Championship Game.
Divisional Tiebreakers: The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:
a. If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the
representative
b. If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is
made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two
tied teams shall be the representative.
1. The records of the three teams will be compared against each other
2. The records of the three teams will be compared within their division
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams
in their division in order of fi nish (4, 5 and 6)
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference
opponents;
5. The highest ranked team in the fi rst Bowl Championship Series Poll following the
completion of Big 12 regular season conference play shall be the representative
6. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be
the representative
7. The representative will be chosen by draw.
http://www.big12sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=10410&ATCLID=1546006
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Nov 3, 2009 7:23 PM CST up reply actions
Of course, it'll take some real work to find a BCS standings listing long enough to show any of them
by burntorangehorn on Nov 3, 2009 9:26 PM CST up reply actions
this still does not clarify
Assuming 4 teams are tied at 4-4, and you start going through the tiebreakers, do you eliminate a team when the tiebreaker rule calls for it or go through all the rules until you have only one team left? If you eliminate 2 teams, do you go back to head to head? Do you stick with tiebreaker rules 1-7?
So, technically if tu loses at A&M, A&M goes through because they have only one loss to a big xii team (ok state) and we get to go to the Big XII championship game. If we win then we get the automatic berth to a BCS bowl. tu then either gets the at large berth to another BCS bowl or plays the cotton bowl in Dallas. Although Cotton Bowl will then be a step down from the NC, its still an honor to play this game too. But I think tu will still make the at large bid to a BCS bowl even if they lose to A&M, unless their weak non conference schedule becomes a factor.
Well fortunately for us it does not count. They look at your standing within the division, which will be Big XII South, it doesn’t matter how many North teams you lose to, if you have won out the South you go to the Big XII championship game. I don’t like this system but this is how this system is and A&M for one has to win out from here on and make it to the Big XII championship game and then if we beat the North champion we get an automatic berth to a BCS bowl even with three or four losses. Imperfect system, agreed, but we control our destiny this year.
by YUMC on Nov 4, 2009 3:12 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I’ve been wondering. I often think he must be joking.
by Infield Elephant on Nov 4, 2009 4:42 PM CST up reply actions
hahahahahahaha
I rec’d that for awesomeness. Holy shit, that’s amazing. So, so wrong and yet so, so convinced that he’s right.
Hey YUMC, why don’t you head over and peruse the Big 12 rules. Oh, what the hell, I’m feeling generous. Here’s the important part:
Divisional Champion: The (eligible) team with the best winning-percentage of all divisional members in its eight conference games is declared the divisional champion and representative to the Dr Pepper Big 12 Conference Football Championship Game. A team ineligible under NCAA or Big 12 rules for postseason (bowl) competition shall not compete in the Championship Game.
You have 1, 2 and 3 but
but this is still one of the strangest scores to me of all year.
How old?
How old does one have to be to have such fear of the aggies? My formative years were
of 12 consecutive and 17 of 18 wins by Texas.
Sure they cheated their way to brief success but then it ended.
Let’s see how it goes at CU Saturday. Then the little trip to Norman.
Texas and really any team with a dominant
defense can go anywhere, anytime and control things. Even with 4 days between games.
by thirtyand0 on Nov 3, 2009 5:08 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Barring injuries...
I am exactly 0% worried. This isn’t 2007 anymore. The defense simply will not let any of those teams score more than 21 points (21 points being extremely generous to our opponents) and even when this offense is struggling, it (and the defense and the special teams) still manage to throw up a lot of points. I can’t imagine the offense scoring fewer than 21 points against those defenses.
How can they lose? Colt throws 4 pick-sixes? Earl, Muck, Aaron and Sergio all collide into each other and explode like an A-bomb never to be seen again? I think we might be able to overcome each of those and still win against that slate.
I agree - at least I am not scared of the Aglets
But maybe because I am older, have been in both Austin and College Station many many times over last 30 years where the dominant team did not win in this series. I was in Stillwater Saturday night and the Texas D reminds me a lot of the 1983 D – awesome. That D can win a NC.
I was only answering the question about the toughest test – not that A&M will win – my first posting above said Texas has better athletes and should win. My other point was this – night game in College Station with a rabid fan base and A&M should only possibly win if Texas has things like multiple turnovers, poor field position, etc.
Strange things happen in this game
I remember Stephen McGee lighting us up. Stephen McGee. Jerrod Johnson is more mobile and accurate but I said the same thing about Zac Robinson over the other QB’s we’ve faced. You just never know whether it’s Jekyll or Hyde that shows up against us with the guys that are inconsistent. They’ve beaten us two of three years with lesser talent. I’m not scared of them but I do respect them. This year’s defense and special teams are playing at an elite level though.
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Nov 3, 2009 5:33 PM CST reply actions
Confidence
I have confidence in Will Muschamp. If he doesn’t slack off next 5 games, we will be in MNC for sure. I had the same confidence in Vince Young in 2005. I know Greg Davis and our offense will choke one or two games out of five, but defense will carry the team through.
Toughest team left or skinniest fat chick?
They are both interchangeable. Our defense is the best in the country. TAMU has done what they are suppose to do beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams (like I said swap Tech and KSU). Sherman will have them in a happy place in two years, but for now they are average. Mack has this year’s Longhorns team focused & won’t let them get caught off-guard. Last year’s Tech debacle might have been the best thing to happen to the team (well and some good recruiting). With scoring from anywhere & a little thunder & lightening in the backfield, Texas wins double-digits against all of the remaining teams including the Big 12 Championship with TAMU having the closest margin due to rivalry & tradition. Hook ’em!
If your point is that the Aggies have beaten the bad teams and lost to the good teams...
…then you can’t say, “You know, except for those two times out of eight that they did the exact opposite of that.” Your point really loses some merit when it doesn’t work 25% of the time. There are pretty good aggies and there are really bad aggies. Who knows which is one going to show up.
That said, I don’t think it matters much which Aggie team shows up, except maybe for purposes of Texas covering the spread. Our D is just too dominant.
You gettin' a 70-3 vibe ? :)
It worked out ok last week and probably could have been close with a TD on our first drive. When osu dropped TD passes and then missed the fieldgoal on their first drive I thought of your prediction with a raised brow.
We'll have to wait until that week.
I think the Aggies are capable of keeping it relatively close. Not within 10, but relatively close.
Last years 40 point win margin being the largest in the rivalry in 110 years
Tells me we wont be getting any 70-3 wins over Aggie, in Aggieland, anytime soon.
Im fine with predicting a comfortable 14-24 pt victory though.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 4, 2009 3:46 PM CST up reply actions
In his defense
playing spoiler against their #1 rival at Kyle Field — I guess you gotta assume the real Aggies will show up.
And, as you say, the Horns will show up too. On their way to the NC…
Aggie Offense
Since none of the Ags wins have been on tv, except replay of Tech, it is hard to judge their improvement. I watched the replay and read about as much sports as any othere die hard college footbal fan and I’ve believe their improvement on offense is real.
Ever since they replaced the two guards they have been able to run inside. I’m surprised at how well Gray is running inside. Michael he is going to be special for the Ag I think. The one wildcard has been the use of McCoy at FB/RB. He looked liked like a pretty hard runner up the gut.
Their receivers are pretty good. Maybe the best they Horns defense has faced this year. They are just big and possession type it seems. There is no doubt Thomas will take out who ever he is on. But Fuller, Tannehill, the big Frosh that begins with an O and even Morrow and one other freshman give them some nice quality.
Johnson is a good quarterback and runs the offense with efficiency. However against Arkansas you can see how he gets rattled and happy feet. When he doesn’t set his feet he is not good at all and rushes tooo much.
All in all the Texas defense should be ok but I think the Ags will go over 21 points. This will be the best up the gut running I think Texas faces before the MNC. I think for the defense it comes down to can they stop the run without support help. If they have to dropa safety in I think the Ags will move the ball with the receivers.
As for the Ags defense McCoy will win the Heisman that night. They just don’t have the talent except for Von Miller. McCoy and company will probably put up 45 or more.
It will be interesting for a while but with Muschamp’s halftime adjustments it will be over in the 3rd quarter.
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