Texas not a lock to go to MNC, even with win over Nebraska??
by silky51 on Nov 30, 2009 11:54 AM CST
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We've heard whispers of the concern, but this is the first time I've seen in print that Texas may have some worries about going to the MNC even with a win against Nebraska. We need a BCS math nerd to break down the concern developing. College Football News has a new article addressing the issue, and here is the quote and link:
Could Florida still play for the national title if it loses to Alabama, no matter what Texas does?
At the moment, Texas is ranked No. 2 by the humans and aren't likely to be ranked No. 1 no matter how big the win over Nebraska. If Florida beats Alabama, then it's a done deal with the Gators playing the Longhorns in the BCS Championship. But if Alabama wins the SEC Championship game it'll almost certainly go from No. 3 to No. 1 in both human polls, Texas will stay at No. 2, and Florida, assuming it's a close loss to the Tide, would likely fall no further than No. 3. The computers would be the X factor, but the final results might turn out to be very, very, very close. The Gators, with a loss, might still play for the national title if they fall no further than third in the human polls; they might have to be dropped to No. 4 unless the computers give Texas a big boost, and that likely won't happen unless Cincinnati loses to Pitt. In other words, this might not be as cut and dry as you think, and if you're a Texas fan, get the Florida pom-poms out just to make sure.
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Don't listen to CFN.
We’re a lock if we win. I think they just trying to stir crap up because things are laid out pretty and have been for the whole season.
"Football's so important in Texas. On the West Coast, it's a social. On the East Coast, it's a culture. Here, it's a religion."
-- Major Applewhite
2006
The precedent is there and I think we can rest safely. There will be no rematch.
Also: what Sunkist just said. CFN is only a notch above Bleacher Report in terms of quality of content.
You ain't hurt.
9-2 oregon is above undefeated cincy… shiesty computers.
by Displaced Longhorn on Nov 30, 2009 12:26 PM CST up reply actions
no they don't
oregon is at .76 in the cpus
meanwhile cincy is at .90
1 Florida .987
2 Alabama.951
3 Texas .928
4 TCU .869
5 Cincinnati .855
6 Boise State .810
7 Oregon .7600
And I'm one not to assume Florida would only fall to 3rd if they lose...
I think they fall at least behind TCU………..right? And probably fall behind Cinci if they win at Pitt………….right?
The coaches would not vote them ahead of TCU
The media might if it’s a close loss, but – memo to Pete Fiutak – the AP poll is meaningless. And the Harris poll can’t undo the coach’s poll and the computers on its own.
I stopped reading after this...
College Football News has a new…
All you need to know is that they’re terrible. They write trash that has very little validity and do so to increase traffic.
A loss for UF drops them in the computers and both polls
A triple-whammy to their overall BCS average. That would definitely put them at no better than #3 in the final rankings, and possibly more like #5 or so.
by burntorangehorn on Nov 30, 2009 12:30 PM CST reply actions
Jerry Palm days Texas wins they are in.....
When the first BCS rankings were revealed, independent analyst Jerry Palm of CollegeBCS.com said Texas was among three teams that controlled its own destiny, along with Florida and Alabama.
Nothing has changed. If Texas beats Nebraska, the Longhorns will play for a national title at the Rose Bowl, Palm said Sunday.
“Absolutely,” he said. “They aren’t going to get caught with a win. If they lose, it’s a different story. If they win, they’re in the BCS championship game.”
Check out Colley Matrix
Which lets you do Hypotheticals. Not that all the computers would act this way, but this is the results Colley gives you:
Currently:
1. Bama 0.95976
2. Florida 0.95874
3. Texas 0.94664
4. Cincy 0.91501
If Florida Beats Bama, and Texas beats NU:
1. Florida 0.99074
2. Texas 0.96345
3. Bama 0.92758
4. Cinci 0.91500
If Bama beats Florida, and Texas beats NU:
1. Bama 0.99148
2. Texas 0.96345
3. Florida 0.92671
4. Cincy 0.91497
Colley Matrix is just one computer poll, but in this one, the closest an SEC loser will be to overtaking Texas would be if Florida beats Bama. That said, the difference between Bama and Texas would be 0.03587, which is over 30% more than the 0.02729 margin separating Texas and Florida. The gap between Bama and Cincy is much closer at 0.01258.
Meaning, from this one computer poll, Florida would be a definite #1, where Texas is closer to #1 than it is #3, and Bama would be a lot closer to #4 than it would be to #2. Looking at those numbers theres no reason to believe that Texas could lose its #2 spot in the computers given we beat NU, and I think everyone agrees we will maintain our #2 spot in the human polls. Win and we are in.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 30, 2009 12:56 PM CST reply actions
Good crunching
My (admittedly far-fetched and paranoid) concerns when I posted a similar fan post yesterday were that (1) the SEC loser might be so strong with the computers that they would fall no lower than #2 and (2) Cincinnati would remain above Texas in the computers, acting as a wedge and creating some unnecessary stress next week. This seems to alleviate those (admittedly far-fetched and paranoid) concerns.
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 30, 2009 1:25 PM CST up reply actions
Unfortunately this is only one computer...
We don’t get help for being a strong #2 in any individual computer. It doesn’t matter if Colley all but sees us a 1b in its algorithm we only get 24 points and the team below us gets 23 even if they are in a completely different zip code behind us and the #1 team, so this doesn’t help us if the other computers only give us 23 points (even if each has us as a 2b, barely behind Florida we still only get 23 points and they get 24). So we don’t benefit from the fine gradations in any of the computers’ results just the aggregate, blunt points for our position. I think we don’t pass the SEC loser in Sagarin’s rankings and that will almost certainly be our low drop score. Colley will probably be our high drop since I don’t think we get to #1 in any computer and will therefore lose one of our #2 scores (Anderson/Hester and Billingsley are the most likely to move us up to #2).
We are going to have to rely on being a strong #2 in the two polls to overcome what will likely be a middling #3 in the computers. Which should be plenty strong if we win and hold our #2 votes and move up to #2 with those who had us behind both SEC teams. We will likely be #2 in 3 of the computers, #3 in one (Wolfe where we are currently behind both SEC team and Cincinnati), and could be as low as #5 in two (Sagarin and Massey, who both have us behind all the undefeated teams but Boise State). Sagarin had us below 1-loss GT last week and seems the most likely to keep us at #5 if Cincinnati wins. Its hard to say what Massey will do with a one-loss SEC team but I wouldn’t be surprised to see us remain #5 there too since we were below 1-loss Oregon several weeks ago.
The only reason I bring up the stength of the 2
Is to show that we are far from being 3 in the one poll we can accurately predict.
They all use different algorithms, but many times those numbers crunch out to the same results, at least for the 4 polls that end up being taken.
Being a strong 2 in the one that we can forsee what we would be is an indicator of how the others may see us move.
And as another note, I forgot that Cincy plays Pitt. If they win in the above scenario, Cincy goes to #3, and Bama down to #4. So Colley at least would have us with 24 and Bama with 22. I find it hard to believe we would average a #3 if Cincy wins. (Pitt beating Cincy did nothing to the above numbers).
by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 30, 2009 2:27 PM CST up reply actions
We are behind Cincy in the 3 and ahead of them in 3...
So if we both win we are likely to remain behind them in 3 and ahead of them 3 regardless of the SEC outcome. The problem is that we are behind them and TCU in 2 of those 3 and that too could remain unchanged as well. Colley is one of our strongest computer polls, so they are only representative of half of our computer score.
I think the rankings I have for us will be pretty close to spot on if both us and Cincy win. We will be #2 in half the computers, #3 in one, and we could be behind the SEC loser in the last two and end up #5. When you drop a #2 and #5 you that averages out to exactly to 3. I guess the likelihood of the SEC loser staying ahead of Cincy/TCU across the board is unlikely, so that will probably make it all a moot point, but I don’t know if that will really be the case. Ultimately I think things are better for us in Cincy wins. It makes it harder for the SEC loser to make up ground in the computers as well as the polls.
We can agree on Cincy then
Theres no way they catch us, and they represent a very real spacer in between those who might.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 30, 2009 3:25 PM CST up reply actions
oh my god! quit talking about this already.. jesus
this is crap, just some stuff the media can talk about so they can boost their web site views, tv rating etc. this post is ridiculous.
it wont happen. in the event of the 0.000000000000000001% chance of it happening, i will apologize for what i said, but this is stupid arguing abut this
"We'll be baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!"
by greenspointexas on Nov 30, 2009 1:10 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I wouldn't discount this too much...
I think it is good that there are still people talking about it in the media. We really could be in trouble if SEC lovers/UT haters vote Florida or Bama loser #2 ahead of us and then everyone else votes them #3, while we shed our current #1 votes (or end up with no-faith voters like Briles voting us below #3), especially if we play poorly against Nebraska and the SEC game is close. Florida or Bama could be a consensus #3 with the computers and, while we will probably be no worse than a middling #3, we are potentially ceding some points to the SEC loser on the computers. I’ll agree the chances are small, but all it would take is a concerted effort by enough voters to either keep the SEC loser artificially high or to move us artificially low and our position is in jeopardy.
So long as the media talks about this openly, sane voters are more likely to punish the SEC loser more in hopes of making sure the title game isn’t an SEC rematch by voting them below most or all of the other undefeated teams.
I really can't buy that this is even plausible
I think voting in the last poll of the season, especially at the very top, changes some to reflect the potential matchup. While some people may think that the SEC loser shouldn’t drop at all, I think that the vast majority will just vote 1. SEC winner 2. Texas 3. SEC loser. Second, don’t forget that Texas is going to get a substantial SOS boost by beating a ranked Nebraska team, which gives us both another good win and a 13th game, which some teams don’t get to play, most importantly Cinci and TCU, and should make sure that no 1-loss team has a better CPU ranking than us (SEC loser). Assuming we win Saturday, I don’t see any way that we aren’t a strong second in the CPU and the polls. Everybody will have an understanding that the NC game is going to be Texas vs. SEC winner, and the rankings will reflect it.
And besides all that, the shitstorm that will ensue from Texas getting passed over for an SEC rematch that nobody will want to watch would be revolutionary. I wonder how the BCS execs would try to justify it on their website. “SEC Championship: the game so nice, let’s play it twice!”. It would be such an injustice that I wouldn’t be surprised if the federal government would be forced to executively mandate some kind of change in the system due to the amount of complaining.
If we win we’re in, there is no question about that, I don’t mean to disrespect anybody who is worried about it, but it just won’t happen. Enjoy the pounding of Nebraska, the team will be carrying the bouquet of roses afterwards.
If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!
by circa1015 on Nov 30, 2009 4:12 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Can you imagine....
If a 1-loss team stayed ahead of an undefeated Texas, TCU, Cincy, and Boise. That would be just crazy! Obama might have to step in to restore order.
"A lot of people look for the easy way to do anything, in swimming there is no easy way." - Eddie Reese
I guess my point is that the system isn't tamper-proof...
Even you admit that changes happen to affect the match up. I think it the media’s continued suggestion that the SEC loser could stage a coup d’etat is a good thing. The voting can be skewed as we have seen. If just a sizeable majority go 1. SEC winner, 2. Texas, 3. SEC loser and the remainder do an Art Briles ticket and have it 1. SEC winner, 2. SEC loser, 7. Texas, we could indeed miss the boat if Cincinnati loses and the SEC loser ends up a stronger #3 in the computers than us. (We will probably end up behind the SEC loser in two of the computers and maybe a third.) What I hope will happen is that the media will insist that the SEC loser should fall behind all the undefeated teams, so even if Cincy loses we end up with a lot of voters going 1. SEC winner, 2. Texas, 3. TCU, 4. Boise State, 5. SEC loser. That would balance out any faithless voters who hold a grudge against us (and we know those exist).
Is it likely? No. Is it plausible? Maybe, I just don’t know enough about the computers to know if they will keep the SEC loser close enough to further skew any voting irregularities.
c'mon now
All I did was read an article and post it because I wanted feedback from the smart people that frequent this website. No need to trash my post. It’s one thing if you want to bash CFN for the article, but please don’t say this post is ridiculous…….that’s an indictment on me…..and no way do I deserve that. I thought we were all on the same side?
Don't mind Greenspoint (Skip Bayless) Texas
He has a tendency to over-react.
It is logical to post this if it is printed, even by a site with this little credibility. But I agree with PB and the boys that we have little to worry about if we win.
"A lot of people look for the easy way to do anything, in swimming there is no easy way." - Eddie Reese
HopkinsHorn
You are paranoid. I understand it, especially after last season. I too have a severe case of PTSD, but we can relax. Things will work out this year. It is natural and good, and all will be right in the world.
"I don't care if I have to run100 times or pass it 100 times...Whatever it takes to win is all that matters to me" -VY
2 cases of shiner help.
Also Tailgating before the game in Arlington would help as well. I’ll be there. With my 2 cases of Shiner. With my luck I’ll be beyond drunk by halftime.
Get off your knees Greg, you're blowin' the game.
Since I live in Southern California . . .
. . . I’m saving my tailgating fund for early January!
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 30, 2009 4:06 PM CST up reply actions
we gotta beat Nebraska before we worry about any of that
in the end it could just be a FOX ploy to get people to watch the selection show
I rest my case on the nonsensical BCS...
the fact that we are even having this discussion proves everything that is wrong with our beloved sport.
"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." - Will Muschamp
"Somebody will always break your records. It is how you live that counts." - Earl Campbell
Unfortnately the media loves these nonsensical discussions....
Which is why there are still seemingly sane sportswriters who will defend this stupidity without just directly saying they support it only because it gives them an easy writing assignment and helps their bottom line.
I don't even want to think about this
I’m already getting pissed off just at the idea that we could start #2 in the preseason polls, go undefeated, win the Big XII and then after all of that with this stellar defense, winningest and most accurate Heisman caliber qb in Colt McCoy still get screwed over and only end up in the damn Fiesta.
Oh, speaking of the preseason polls check out the only outlet that gave us a 4th place vote.
I agree with the above posts...
I would find that really hard to believe.
It would destroy the entire college football landscape. There would be too many people saying, “Florida had their shot, they blew it, too fng bad.”
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Dec 1, 2009 4:27 PM CST reply actions
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