Race to the Roses November 9 & BCS Bowl Predictions
by awiggo on Nov 9, 2009 11:01 AM CST
in Football
28 comments
After back to back weekends with no major shakeups, college football finally felt a tremor as three of the top ten teams in last week's BCS standings fell. Iowa failed to erase a fourth quarter deficit and lost at home to Northwestern; Oregon fought hard but couldn't overcome the two-headed monster of Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck; and LSU succumbed to injuries, SEC officiating, and the Mark Ingram and Julio Jones show in Tuscaloosa.
So, where does that leave us? We can safely say goodbye to those three teams as the field of potential national champions looks much thinner. If you discount teams, like TCU and Boise State, from non-automatic qualifying leagues, like I do, then you're left with only five teams from BCS conferences who are undefeated or have a single loss and have a legitimate chance at Pasadena-Florida, Alabama, Texas, Cincinnati, and Georgia Tech. Sorry, Iowa and Pittsburgh fans, it is just not gonna happen.
I'm not going to go so far as to say the BCS is definitely going to work this year but it probably will. I will not be betting against Texas, Florida, or Alabama dropping a regular season game the rest of the way. And as long as Texas can take care of Kansas State/Nebraska in a virtual home game in Arlington, we'll see two undefeated conference champions play for the national title. Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State fans will have small beefs but nothing significant or foundation shattering to the BCS formula.
Let's quickly play the game of matching teams to their BCS bowl destinations. This is assuming Florida wins out, including an SEC title game victory over an undefeated Alabama, Ohio State defeats Iowa this weekend, and Texas, TCU, and Boise State also win out. Florida and Texas would play for it all giving the Sugar and Fiesta Bowls first and second selections as replacement picks. The Sugar would definitely take the 12-1 Crimson Tide, but the Fiesta's selection is not as clear cut. They could take 12-0 TCU-a reasonable and deserving selection but one without a significant fan base or national draw. They could take 10-2 USC-probable Pac 10 runner ups with an easy geographic tie and guaranteed strong tv ratings. The Fiesta Bowl might also look at 10-2 Oklahoma State, should the Cowboys win out. I think the easy pick here is the USC, though. The Orange Bowl gets the ACC champion automatically, let's say Georgia Tech. After those picks and automatic berths, the bowls would look like this:
BCS Title: Florida vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs.
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs.
The remaining picks go Orange, then Fiesta, and then Sugar. Cincinnati must be picked as Big East champs and TCU must be picked by virtue of finishing in the top 12 of the final BCS and being highest ranked team from a non-automatic qualifying conference. The last selection is the final at-large one-possible picks are Boise State, Oklahoma State, Miami, Iowa, Penn State, or Houston. These potential picks must have nine wins and finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings.
I say the Orange grabs Cincinnati, the Fiesta take Oklahoma State, and then the Sugar is left with TCU.
BCS Title: Florida vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Oklahoma State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. TCU
In this scenario, Boise State would be left out. Oh well. The Broncos are not done, though and this assumes that Oklahoma State wins out. Notre Dame's loss helped Boise on Saturday as did the Ohio State win in Happy Valley. Had Penn State won, they would have been in great position to earn an at-large bid and the Big Ten would have earned two bids. Now, it looks like the Big Ten will end up with just a single BCS bid. Moving forward, losses by Oklahoma State and Miami down the stretch would significantly improve Boise's chances.
After the jump, a look at this week's Favorites, Contenders, and those that Need Help...
The Favorites:
1. Florida (9-0; BCS 1): If the Gators are going to stumble pre-SEC title game, it will be this Saturday in Columbia. The 2:30 pm kick and the fact that the Old Ball Coach hasn't had any luck against his former team should make Gator fans comfortable.
Next Games: 11/14 @ S. Carolina, 11/21 Fl. International, 11/28 Florida State
2. Alabama (9-0; BCS 2): I thought LSU had a good shot to knock off Alabama and for three quarters my prediction looked pretty good. There was the non-interception call, but in the fourth quarter Jones and Ingram were too much for the Tigers. Give ‘Bama credit. That said, the trip to Starkville won't be easy, nor will the season ending trip to Auburn. Of the top three, there is no question that Alabama is one most likely to lose before championship Saturday.
Next Games: 11/14 @ Miss State, 11/21 Chattanooga, 11/27 @ Auburn
3. Texas (9-0; BCS 3): One down, four more to go. Texas started slowly but it didn't matter as Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley had career days and the defense was its usual outstanding self (3 pts, 151 total yds). Baylor showed some life on Saturday with a surprising win at Missouri. However, the trip to Waco is nearly a home game for the ‘Horns and shouldn't cause any trouble.
Next Games: 11/14 @ Baylor, 11/21 Kansas, 11/26 @ Texas A&M
The Contenders:
1. TCU (9-0; BCS 4): San Diego State became the first team in a month to score double digits against the Horned Frogs, and they still got pasted, 55-12. The final real hurdle to earning a BCS berth comes this weekend as TCU hosts Utah. Yes, TCU jumped Cincinnati this week. Don't get too excited Horned Frog fans. Your team is ahead by only .0040. TCU is ahead slightly in both polls but behind Cincy in the computers. The computers will likely favor Cincy as the Bearcats will be helped more with wins over WVU and Pitt than TCU will be with a win over Utah. Pollsters could also swing toward Cincy with more tv exposure and more quality wins. Just speculation and speculation that won't matter unless one of the Favorites lose.
Next Games: 11/14 Utah, 11/21 @ Wyoming, 11/28 New Mexico
2. Cincinnati (9-0; BCS 5): You thought Colt McCoy had a good day, how about Zach Collaros (29/37 for 480 yds and a td)? Not bad for a backup. The Bearcats did give up 35 second half points but they remain unblemished. Their next two contests are at home and should put Cincy at 11-0. Only the season ending trip to Pittsburgh looks scary. If ‘Bama dropps at game but then beats Florida in Atlanta, who would you send to Pasadena, 12-0 Cincy or 12-1 Alabama?
Next Games: 11/13 West Virginia, 11/21 Bye, 11/27 Illinois
Need Help:
1. Boise State (9-0; BCS 6): A lot of the chaos that Boise needed to happen occurred on Saturday. However, it still isn't enough and PR firm isn't going to help. First, the Broncos need to keep winning. Next, a Utah upset win in Fort Worth would put the Broncos back in the driver's seat for a BCS bowl. Last, Boise fans should also be rooting against USC, Arizona, Miami, and Oklahoma State.
Next Games: 11/14 Idaho, 11/20 @ Utah State, 11/27 Nevada
2. Georgia Tech (9-1; BCS 8): Paul Johnson's club just keeps on winning. Their resume now includes a three point win over Clemson, a five point win at Florida State, and an overtime win against Wake Forest. Their only misstep came in September against Miami. The Yellow Jackets have just two games left and are poised to cruise into the ACC title game at 11-1.
Next Games: 11/14 @ Duke, 11/21 Bye, 11/28 Georgia
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If anyone was going to upset Bama, it was LSU or Tenn
Maybe Auburn has a shot, but it would be a real surprise. I think we’re looking at another “perfect storm” in the BCS title game. Preseason #1 vs. Preseason #2, FL v. TX.
Don’t eat the cheese, guys!
by notsofst on Nov 9, 2009 11:20 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Would BCS Let this happen?
Lets say the following happens – either the gamecocks knock off the gators or Bama loses to instate rival Auburn. Then whoever loses wins the SEC title game. Both have a loss, with one being right before the final BCS poll. All logic would put those 2 SEC teams behind TCU.
Would the powers that be let a TCU vs. Texas match up happen? Or would they find a way to rig the system away from TCU.
My guess, somewhat cynical, is they would pressure, cajole, etc to force a Texas vs. SEC champ BCS title game.
by realmccoy on Nov 9, 2009 11:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Most likely something like this would happen. An undefeated TCU would have a hard time passing a one loss SEC champion. The pollsters would probably put the SEC Champion at #2, and that would be enough to sway the BSC vote in favor of them making the nat’l title game.
The only way TCU would get in would be to lobby the pollsters to get them to vote them higher. Which is unlikely to happen.
Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!
by ZeroIndulgence on Nov 9, 2009 12:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
BSC = BCS. Ignore my dyslexia, please! :)
Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!
by ZeroIndulgence on Nov 9, 2009 12:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Tough one
The counter-balance of the computers would help, and I think the pollsters wouldn’t be all that friendly even to an SEC champion. My guess is that they’d sooner put Cincinnati in the title game than hop the one-loss SEC champ over both TCU and Cinci.
by burntorangehorn on Nov 9, 2009 1:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I for one would love for there...
to be 5 or 6 unbeatens and the BCS try to explain itself. Sham with a capital S. I know all of you know where I stand on this issue. But to be fair and completely unbiased, should Cincy, TCU, and Boise run the table, they deserve a shot. We cannot be so defiant and smug to think that because we are Texas, we are more deserving. They played their games, ran the table, and are left on the outside looking in. It happened to Utah and Boise last season…and I believe Boise beat Oregon on the road last season. Texas was as deserving as any team I can recall last year and got the axe. I want to be consistent here even when it means our beloved Horns would have to win 3 more games in an 8 Teamer as opposed to one more in the MNC.
The Horns best win this season will be Ok St. Wow. – Sure the Big XII is down this season…we say that about the Big Ten and Big East almost every year…was bound to happen to us sooner or later.
Boise’s will be Oregon. – Please change the turf color going forward. After all, you are not a gimmick program any longer.
Cincy’s will be Oregon St, WV, or PITT. – I predict a slip-up at PITT.
TCU’s will be Utah. – Missed FG’s from playing Bama last season…perhaps they get their shot this year after the MNC is dangled in front of them, yet they cannot reach it without catastrophe in front of them.
FL or Bama will be one another…giving the nod to FL in that matchup right now. Nothing left to say…SEC is the best conference this season hands down.
So, here is to 5 teams running the table…I would wager we have a 50/50 shot at this happening.
"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." - Will Muschamp
"Somebody will always break your records. It is how you live that counts." - Earl Campbell
by Mulliganville on Nov 9, 2009 11:30 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
+1
great post mulligan
"We'll be baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!"
by greenspointexas on Nov 9, 2009 12:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good job on the projections, wiggy
Some Questions.
1. The Iowa/OSU winner goes to the Rose. It’s possible that the loser finishes in the BCS top 14. Wouldn’t the Orange Bowl rather pick them than Cincy? GT-Iowa might be more appealing than GT-Cincy/Pitt. If OSU loses to Iowa, yet still finishes in the top 14, they’d have to be a lock for the Orange, right?
2. Miami is already in the BCS top 14. If they win out they will be an automatic qualifier. Would the Fiesta rather have Miami than Okie St, regional ties be damned?
by DogTown on Nov 9, 2009 12:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Miami wouldn't be an automatic qualifier
They’d be eligible to be selected as an at-large, but just being in the top 14 guarantees them nothing.
by Sweed4Heisman on Nov 9, 2009 12:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Answers
1. I don’t think the Iowa/Ohio State loser has any chance of the getting to a BCS game. If Iowa loses, they will have dropped two straight, both coming late in the season. They are no longer attractive. If Ohio State loses, they will have lost two of their three big games in the season and have the history of terrible performances in BCS games holding them back. They won’t be BCS bound either.
2. Miami to the Fiesta is possible but I predict Ok State or Boise State will get the nod over the Canes. I am a lifelong Canes fan but don’t see a BCS game for them this year. If they were 11-1 and the end of the season and not just 10-2, then yeah. Miami is on its way back but they are not there yet. I don’t see the Fiesta taking a chance and picking the over two other programs with fans more hungry to travel and from closer locations.
--AW--
by awiggo on Nov 9, 2009 1:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Penn State...
I think might get picked over BOTH miami & Okie State.
They have the tradition.. .the tv sets & traveling fans.
I just don’t think that BOTH Oregon & USC make it out alive. One of those two losing opens up another spot and i think thats how Okie State sneaks in
by Orangechipper on Nov 9, 2009 3:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Miami has the tradition...
But they can’t even fill up the Orange Bowl. Got to think that Penn State or just about ANY other alternate (even IOWA) would be picked before Miami.
by Orangechipper on Nov 9, 2009 2:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
haha, correct.
I meant to put “at large qualifier”
D’oh.
by DogTown on Nov 9, 2009 12:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
If Miami wins out, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Miami be the Orange Bowl’s second pick, since they know they’d get a good home turnout for them. But they’d have to pass the OSU/Iowa loser, Pitt, and LSU to look like a worthy pick, though. I still think they have been one of the more impressive teams this year, though.
I think the Big 10 gets one BCS bowl game entry. No one will want to watch a 2-loss Iowa or a 3-loss Ohio State.
If USC wins out, they should get into a bowl game…probably the Fiesta. They’re no lock to win out, though. Yes, all their remaining games are at home…but Stanford has been known to go off from time to time, UCLA always plays them tough, and Arizona has been a good team this year. USC, with the injuries they’ve been facing, and their play as of late, they could lose another one… Also, if Oregon loses to Arizona, then AZ could be the Pac-10 champs. The safe money is still on Oregon in the Rose and USC as an at-large, though.
FInally, I think Florida is destined for a fall…Alabama could very realistically beat them and get to the national title game.
Anyways, that all leads to my predictions.
BCS Title: Alabama vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Iowa vs. Oregon
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Miami
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. TCU
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!
by ZeroIndulgence on Nov 9, 2009 1:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Orange
The Orange Bowl makes sense for Miami only if Ga Tech somehow makes it into the national title game as ACC champions. That won’t happen tough. So, Ga Tech automatically goes the Orange Bowl. The Orange Bowl is not going to pick Miami and make it an all ACC BCS game and a rematch of a regular season game.
Miami’s only chances are Sugar or Fiesta and those are both longshots.
--AW--
by awiggo on Nov 9, 2009 1:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It’d be nice if the SEC-loser vs USC could get matched up in the Sugar or Fiesta. I know it’s a down year for USC, but people have been wanting that match for a while.
by UT_BKC on Nov 9, 2009 1:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
TCU
New Mexico is computer poll killer. Just look at Utah that dropped 7 spots in the computers after waxing New Mexico. TCU will be fine for the-non BCS spot. But if there is any shot at the title -not likely- they need help from Clemson to win the ACC, Cincy, and a Texas loss. That is a lot for them to even maybe get a chance. TCU will be fine with their first BCS bowl game, and if they play Bama they should win. alabama’s offense is nothing special and TCU’s defense will stop or slow down Mark Ingram.
by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 9, 2009 1:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Agree/Disagree
Agree: New Mexico and Wyoming are going to hurt TCU, and WVU and Pitt will help Cincinnati in the computer polls. If both win out, Cincy should jump TCU based on that.
Disagree:
if they play Bama they should win. alabama’s offense is nothing special and TCU’s defense will stop or slow down Mark Ingram.
Perhaps. But one question…who’s going to score for TCU?
Friends may come and go, but enemies accumulate.
- Thomas Jones
by beast in bama on Nov 9, 2009 5:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
right on the money with the predictions except for USC. I think Boise St would get in before USC.
by MJY6087 on Nov 9, 2009 2:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Boise would deserve it
but USC would be the pick. It’s all about the benjamins baby.
by aaronlybrand on Nov 9, 2009 8:36 PM CST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Pac 10
Take a look at the murderer’s row of schedules that Oregon and USC still face.
Remember… USC couldn’t beat 3-5 Washington.
They still have to play Stanford. (who just beat Oregon) & a strong 2-loss Arizona & UCLA who always seems to give them fits.
Oregon still has Arizona, Arizona State, & Oregon State left.
Perfect storm for Okie lite to get in would be for Oregon to win out and Arizona to beat USC. That leaves Pac X number 2 school with 3 teams and on the outside. That opens a spot up for Penn State/ Okie State/ Boise.
by Orangechipper on Nov 9, 2009 2:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
USC might be tested by Arizona, but not by Stanford or UCLA
USC shouldn’t have any difficulty with Stanford. Stanford just had their 10 minutes of fame. Did you watch the 4th quarter of the Stanford/Oregon game?
Stanford’s defense was dead. Oregon would have 70-yard drives with 5 or 6 pass plays taking all of 30 seconds off the clock (for the entire drive). The Cardinals were hanging on to dear life hoping the Stanford offense could make a single first down to keep the Oregon offense off of the field. If Oregon could have gotten possession (via punt or otherwise) with a minute left, Stanford still wouldn’t have been able to defend. That is how bad Stanford’s defense was.
"God is most glorified in us when we are most satisfied in Him." J.Piper
by bravobevo on Nov 9, 2009 4:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
which sounds awfully similar...
to USC’s defense vs. Oregon…
I think the bottom line with the Pac10 this year is that nobody knows nothing. Every single team seems like a Jekyll and Hyde, and you just give it your best guess as to which shows up.
by Pflash on Nov 9, 2009 6:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Did you watch USC's offense against Arizona State?
One touchdown on offense and one on defense. Oregon’s offense is waaay better than USC’s. Stanford’s actually pretty good and for the first time in years, USC’s only “pretty good.” It’ll be a test.
by billyzane on Nov 9, 2009 7:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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